NINE BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT
COULD FLIP THE SENATE and THE SUPREME COURT
Peter Dreier February 14,
2016
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THE SUPREME COURT
The Supreme Court balance could shift even before the
November election if the Republican Senate approves Obama’s nominee to replace
Scalia, but given McConnell’s remarks, that is unlikely. And even if the
Republican Senate were willing to confirm Obama’s nominee, it would only be for
a judicial moderate and not a full-throated liberal like Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
If the Democrats win the Senate and a Democratic president
gets to replace Scalia and appoint three other justices, they will cement a
liberal majority for at least two or three decades. If either
Clinton or Sanders wins the White House, Justices Ginsburg (who will be 83 next
year) and Stephen Breyer (78) might retire to allow the president to pick their
younger successors. Anthony Kennedy, a conservative who sometimes votes with
the court liberals, will be 80 in 2017. If he retires and a Democrat selects
his replacement, the court could find itself with a 6-3 liberal majority, with
only Chief Justice John Roberts (currently 61 years old) and Justices Clarence
Thomas (67) and Samuel Alito (65) remaining to carry the conservative torch.
(Two other liberals—61-year-old Sonia Sotomayor and 55-year-old Elena Kagan,
both Obama appointees—could remain on the court for another two decades)
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HERE’S THE RUNDOWN OF THE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES:
New Hampshire: First-termer Kelly Ayotte is probably the
most vulnerable Republican in the Senate. She’s facing a strong opponent in
popular Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, who announced her Senate bid in
October. Possible Democratic pickup.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Ron Johnson is another
vulnerable Republican seeking re-election. The billionaire invested about $9
million of his own money to beat Senator Russ Feingold by a small margin in
2010, a midterm election. Feingold is now seeking to regain his former seat and
has the advantage of this being a presidential year, where Democratic turnout
is likely to be higher than six years ago. Obama carried Wisconsin with 53
percent of the vote in 2008 and 56 percent four years later. Possible
Democratic pickup.
Illinois: Republican
Mark Kirk rode the GOP wave to victory in 2010, but this year he’s facing a
tight race for re-election in a state where voters typically support a Democrat
for president and where the other Senate seat is held by Dick Durbin, a popular
Democrat. Representative Tammy Duckworth is likely to be the Democratic
candidate for Senate.
Colorado: Democrats believe it is crucial to hold
onto this Senate seat, currently held by Michael Bennet, who is running for
re-election. Bennet won the seat on his own in 2010, narrowly defeating
Republican Ken Buck. Obama carried Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, but it is
still considered a swing state in the current presidential race. Bennet will
need a strong Democratic turnout to stay in office. Tossup.
Ohio: Republican incumbent Rob Portman is running
for re-election. His likely Democratic opponent, former Governor Ted
Strickland, is currently leading Portman in the polls. John Kasich won a close
race four years ago. This will be an intense battleground state in both the
presidential and Senate races. Tossup.
Pennsylvania: The
Republican incumbent Patrick Toomey wants to stay in the Senate, but he is not
a very popular politician in this state. GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won
Pennsylvania since 1988. A strong Democratic turnout could doom Toomey’s
re-election bid and help the Democratss take back the Senate. Possible Democratic pickup.
Nevada: Democrat
Harry Reid, who has served in the Senate since 1987 and was its majority leader
from 2007 to 2014, is not seeking re-election, so this is a wide open seat. After
bowing out, Reid recruited former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez
Masto to run for the seat as the Democratic nominee. She will likely face
Representative Joe Heck in the general election in what promises to be one of
the most competitive Senate races in the country. Tossup;
possible GOP pickup.
Florida: This is another state where the incumbent
is not running for re-election. Marco Rubio is seeking the GOP nomination for
president, leaving the seat vacant. Florida will be one of the most
hotly-contested states for both president and Senate. Representative Patrick
Murphy the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. He’ll have a slight edge
over any of the likely GOP candidates, who include Lieutenant Governor Carlos
Lopez-Cantera, Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly. Tossup; possible
Democratic pickup.
Arizona: It is possible that Arizona voters are
getting tired of Republican John McCain, who has served in the Senate since 1987
and was the GOP’s losing presidential nominee in 2008. He is likely to run
against Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, the toughest Democratic challenger he
has ever faced. A strong Democratic turnout, especially among women, could give
Kirkpatrick a victory. Tossup; longshot Democratic
pickup.
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In two additional
states, Republican incumbents—Missouri’s
Roy Blunt and North Carolina’s Richard
Burr—could face tough re-election bids, but the political prognosticators think
these Senate seats will remain in GOP hands.
In Indiana, Republican incumbent Dan Coats is stepping
down, but it
will be difficult for a Democrat to win that open seat unless they come up with
a very strong candidate and voter turnout among low-income, minority, and young
voters reaches record levels.
Bottom line: In a
high turnout election, Democrats have a
better-than-even chance for a net pickup of at least four seats. We all
knew how consequential this year’s election will be. With Scalia’s death, it
just got even more consequential.
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