domingo, 29 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 29 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP 29  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


It would require substantial changes in the economic and, in some cases, financial and institutional structures of major economies accompanied by significant modifications to the system of global governance...
See Chart:
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USD doesn’t serve the future of America. The future is one single currency for trade business and Bank savings. The IMF agreed to create this currency from a basket of all currencies who can get supported by gold. To support  the USD with gold we need to pay the huge debt we have. Is there enough gold for this conversion?. What about big private banker & big Corp.. Will they abandon the kripto currencies and fiscal paradises where they place their gold?. I don’t think so. Investors who work in industrial production sectors (not mere WS speculations) need their saving in USD  be converted to gold. All the rest of the Nation too. IF US don’t do it, we will be excluded from international market  even if IMF insist in support USD. There will be regional currencies in ASIA, Europe, Latin America and AFRICA. VEN and BRA people are already using kripto currencies & soon there will be a regional currencies supported by gold. IMF will disappear, it is now useless. ARG already declared Zero Sovereign Dept. The world have realized that financial parasites and the USD Debt is destroying the global economy. The only option we have is gold-USD
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"... We’re moving from the perception that this is late-cycle to a belief that it’s end of cycle."
My view remains that the risk in Fed scenarios is weighted towards significantly more cuts because growth is slowing much more than many seem willing to acknowledge, and the risk of a recession has increased materially. As noted above, an equity manager has made money over the past year in just two types of stocks – growth or defensively oriented ones. In July, that began to change, and we have been recommending a long defensive/short secular growth pair as a way to capture what could be the next move in this cyclical bear market – pricing a recession whether we have one or not. In short, we’re moving from the perception that this is late-cycle to a belief that it’s end of cycle. When that shift occurs, defensive stocks outperform secular growth stocks (Exhibit 1).
See Chart:
Secular Growth Stocks relative to defensive Stokcs

So if this is THE event, what are we ending? In my view, the days of endless capital for unprofitable businesses. It was one heck of a run, but paying extraordinary valuations for anything is a bad idea, particularly for businesses that may never generate a positive stream of cash flows. If you ask me, that’s just common sense and it’s a good thing if the markets go back to a more disciplined mindset. The problem is that some stocks in the public markets still need to fall back to earth, and they reside in the secular growth category.
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We remain irrationally bullish for 2019... but IPO underperformance, spike in repo rates, credit tremors (Argentina, Ford, Thomas Cook) and growing risk of disorderly rise in US dollar hint at a potential liquidity crisis in 2020.
Three catalysts can change this in the 2020s, and break the cycle:
  • Catalyst 1 = higher growth & higher yields:
  • Catalyst 2 = higher rates & lower growth
  • Catalyst 3 = lower EPS & lower yields: note Fed response to '98 Asia crisis overwhelmed Clinton impeachment (Chart 7); a potential Trump impeachment in 2020...

… could herald shift to left towards redistributive policies of higher regulation & higher taxation harming US EPS.
See Chart:
US policies heading into 2020 Presidential Elections
What comes next?  Expect an even more pressing and dramatic financial or geopolitical crisis to be unleashed somewhere in the world, which will force even more easing by the Fed, and in turn send stocks to even recorder highs, before the next and perhaps final bubble bursts, send stocks crashing to new generational lows. The only question is whether Trump will successfully delay this day of reckoning to beyond November 2020. And once we cross that point, the collapse will be just a matter of time, as will be the launch of MMT under president AOC/Warren in 2024 and the end of the US Dollar as a reserve currency.
[ I don’t think Trump will be able to defeat E Warren in 2020 election. Polls said so ]
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Cuando no tienen nada positivo que hacer se dedican a cazar moscas con la lengua…

"I think she has to testify here...
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Why? Because she is enemy of “private greed” and in favor of “Public Need” as most socialists do. There won’t be space for all of them in your Court. They are not enemies of US, they are enemies of neoliberal system which favor only the rich: big bankers & big Corp, not our nation. Who are you serving to?
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"...Yes I know it sucks. My 5 year plan is to leave the state before it collapses financially any home value plummets." 
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...the hundreds of environmentally toxic military bases circling our planet, exists solely for the benefit of murderous dominating imperialists and sociopathic war profiteers...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


...markets are in engaged in a big game of stalemate. Bulls keep buying every dip, but all rallies are sold and are selling opportunities. Nobody’s making any progress whatsoever chasing from headline to headline...
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China has no intention to continue talking with US teams. It stand to reason: We are instigating the unrest in Hong Kong. They have the Shanghai Pact, they don’t need the US any longer.  There is not stalemate, they won the context.
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The U.S. is the main instigator of terrorism throughout the Middle East, according to the Iranian president...
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 We want WW3.. and we will have it. Then US people will know Hiroshima-Nag Exp

NATO so readily spurning the request is a deeply worrisome sign of a likely 'new arms race' to come.
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"...the current sophistry being used by a weak, desperate and dangerous Empire seeks to undermine Xi’s Grand Design by redefining its 'operating system' by destroying those aspects which generate creative change..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Dems' Impeachment Against Trump Is A Huge Mistake  By Moon Of Alabama  Trump should be impeached for his crimes against Syria, Venezuela and Yemen
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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sábado, 28 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 28 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP 28  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


5 words... "USE IT OR LOSE IT"
The last few weeks have seen a dramatic surge in US macro data surprises (to the upside), dramatically diverging from the rest of the world (and almost single-handedly improving the global data)...
See Chart:

This sudden surge, however, is not a total surprise as we have noted the seasonal patterns in US economic data previously.
So why does this pattern exist - and why is it particularly strong in recent weeks?
Simple - as OpenTheBooks.com details - it is a reflection of the Federal Government's "Use-It-Or-Lose-It" Spending Spree...
In the final month of the fiscal year, federal agencies scramble to spend what’s left in their annual budget. Agencies worry spending less than their budget allows might prompt Congress to appropriate less money in the next fiscal year. To avoid this, federal agencies choose to embark on an annual shopping spree rather than admit they can operate on less.
This is the “use-it-or-lose-it” spending phenomenon, and it happens every year.

And that surge in spending coincides with this sudden 'surprise' burst to the upside.
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index:  “Use it or Lose it”

For some context from last year:
  • In the final week of the fiscal year, federal agencies signed nearly 10 percent of all fiscal year 2018 contracts.
  • Between 2015 and 2018, federal spending during the final month of the fiscal year increased by 39 percent. From 2017 to 2018, September spending increased by 16 percent.
  • Contract spending in September 2018 totaled nearly $97 billion. In the final seven days of fiscal year 2018, federal agencies spent $53.3 billion – more than they spent in the entire month of August 2018 ($47 billion).
  • The federal government spent $544 billion on all fiscal year 2018 contracts, but nearly 18 percent of these contracts were purchased in the final month of the fiscal year.
And, we suspect, given the rapid surge in borrowing recently, that 2019 will be even more dramatic on the spending side (and thus the unprecedented spike in economic surprises)
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm18AF.jpg?itok=cmq5Y4XA

All of which begs the question: is the only reason why the economy tends to pick up momentum dramatically as the summer ends just a function of a surge in government spending permeating the broader economy as agencies scramble to spend all the money they have before the end of the September 30 Fiscal Year End (just so they get allocated the same or greater budget in the coming fiscal year), which subsequently plunges or is outright halted as the case may be right now?
If so, it would explain so much, and certainly why year after year, the US economy seems to pick up in the mid-to-late Q3 period, only to dramatically fade away in the coming months, as government spending goes from a waterfall to a trickle.
It would also put the government's role in generating transitory periodic spikes in economic output under a microscope, especially since it is so clearly staggered to recur every September as one after another government agency spends like a drunken sailor. And if that is the case, how long until the BLS or some other agency (upon reopening of course) is taken to task to normalize not only for hedonic indicators and climate-related seasonal factors, but also for what is now clearly an annual aberration of economic output trends?
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index Seasonal

Either way, within 72 hours, this artificial stimulus will be over, and we would not be surprised at all to see US data converge back to the weakness indicated elsewhere. Presumably that's what the uber-doves are hoping for.
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For once, European banks appear not to be at fault.
See Chart:

Last weekend, as the overnight funding crisis was peaking, we showed the distribution of $1.4 trillion in Fed reserves, also known simply as "cash", across the banks that make up the US financial system.
See Chart:
Cash Balance at Banks vs. Total Fed Reserve Balances ($BN)

One week later, with the dollar "plumbing" shock seemingly unclogged as we approach quarter end, following $162BN in various term and overnight repo operations...
See Chart:
NY FED O/N REPO Operations

Setting aside what we don't know - i.e., the immediate causes for the recent events and which specific banks were the catalysts - if we had to jot down what we do know, it is that it is now widely accepted that the level of "excess" reserves, at $1.4 trillion, is far too low for the financial system. As a resultfirst Goldman...
See Chart:
We Expect the FED  to resume trend growth of its balance sheet in NOV

... and then JPMorgan now predict that the Fed will need to permanently inject billions in reserves - by way of Permanent Open Market Operations, i.e. purchases of Treasuries, i.e. QE (just don't call it QE 4 whatever you do) - starting some time in November, to elevate the overall level of reserves to roughly $1.7-$1.8 trillion.
See   Charts:

What this data shows is that on a non-seasonally adjusted basis (because we care for actual data, not the Fed's smoothed take), cash at large domestic banks tumbled in the week ending Sept 18 by $55.3 BN to $714.8BN, the lowest total since April 2013, while cash at small domestic banks also dropped substantially, by $18.2BN to $272.9BN, for a combined $73.5BN drop in total domestic bank cash (from $1086.2BN to $1,012.7BN)

In other words, to find the culprit for the latest repo shock, don't look to Europe (those banks have enough pain on their plate with the ECB recently launching QEternity, to also have to worry about overnight funding in the US) but look for clues among domestic US banks.
See Chart:
Cash Balance at Banks vs Total FED Reserves Balances : NSA
Notice the difference with the 1ST above Chart

Unfortunately, since the Fed's data only goes through Sept 18, the full analysis of bank funding heading into quarter-end will need to wait until next Friday. Meanwhile, while we wait the question is: will the repo situation stabilize once we put September in the rearview mirror as so many rates strategists expect will happen once the quarter-end liquidity shortage fades, or will it persist confirming that something is well and truly broken in the dollar funding markets, and the Qt is what the Fed will do in response?
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"The ugly process of repricing risk has begun..."
See Chart:
Mision Statement level of bullshit vs. Stock perform for 1 year post IPO
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"Stormy winds are blowing across credit markets, twisting and bending them like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge...Greenspan got us into this mess... and there’s no dampening it. Final collapse is inexorable..."
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Virtually none of their original claims remain...
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HERE A BRIEF SUMMARY:
1. The call transcript shows the topic of U.S. treats to Ukraine, but no point does relate Trump to threats as  Trump’s media critics conceded.
2. Ukrainians weren’t pressured. 
3. Timeline does not apply
4. No Illicit Favors. 
5. Whistleblower Complaint Lacks Credibility.
6. Fake News, Bad Polls. 
7. Adam Schiff was already tweeting out the thrust of the accusation:
8. Origins. . The Federalist reported late Friday that the intelligence community adjusted rules related to whistleblower complaints so that hearsay evidence could now be accepted.
9. Rudy: Rudy Giuliani was Trump’s go-to guy for actually carrying out this conspiracy.
10. Coverup? Democrats say the White House has engaged in a pattern of obstruction and coverup to hide their wrongdoing. But is this true? The true is: such  accusation  applies more to Obama, than to Trump.
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"Washington has become a buffoonish theater of the absurd..."
See Picture:
BLOCKED
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Pollution has had its cycles as well but this entire Global Warming nonsense implies that it has ONLY been post-Industrial Revolution that threatens the planet. We will all die in 12 years according to AOC: IF WW3 BREAKS UP [ The IF added to fit the mind of AOC]
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There’re intentional distortions in this Art against socialists like AOC.. typical in some undergraduate students.. they don’t know nothing about Marxist socialism & they use the name of Martin Amstrong to deliver the stupid phobia on socialism. Perhaps only the chart below belongs to Amstrong:
See Chart:
Rise & Fall of Empires, Nations & City States
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"The Ukrainians weren't made aware that the assistance was being delayed/reviewed..."
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The Great Middle Class Exodus

On the other hand, California’s reputation for handing out free goodies has been a magnet for another class of people...
See Picture:
Where they move to?: probably the farmers  to Utah, Colorado & Arizona
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DEMs & REPs both twins will collapse,, they can’t swallow each other, if 1 dies 11 die
American democracy was never very democratic, but when an entire political party disrespects truth and is determined to gain power at all cost, we know that the end is near...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Footage captured a security officer blocking Zarif's attempt to exit UN grounds, to which he's been restricted on US orders.
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ISR start WW3.. they’re not afraid that dimona + bunkers below Jerusalem blows up
Crucial border compound in Western Iraq hit after a series of similar 'mystery' airstrikes.
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Disaster is lurking in emerging markets. 
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Nothing to lose.. all riches have been devoured by big bankers & internat Corp. All they have to do now –if WW3 start- is to expel foreign Comp, close US Embassies  & declare ZERO SOVEREING DEPT  & nationalize their riches. SO, WW3 is the best time for SOCIALIST REV worldwide.
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Deterrence is good word to place foreign nukes in front of the US
The deployment is being presented by Lithuanian officials as proof of a “larger, long-term US military involvement in Lithuania,” while others say it is meant to deter Russian aggression.
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IF they plan to invade RU they have to defeat thousands of mini-robots able to put down tankers, troops, drones & helicopters crossing RU border. The rest will be done by regular RU military  apparatus. China will do the same.
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...the device can identify individual faces out of crowds of tens of thousands; Will take mass surveillance to a new level...
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Only for economic purposes ah.. Look like US false-flag. .. They learn ah.
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Turkey "not afraid" of possible US sanctions even after the US went after Chinese shipping companies...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-‘I Am Fighting For You’: Trump Posts Passionate Video Slamming Dems  TRUE: both parties are fighting to defend each other against socialists. If Potus kill dems, thanks
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 NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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