sábado, 27 de febrero de 2016

FEB 27 16 SIT EC y POL



FEB 27 16 SIT EC y POL


1-The BIG LIE from the PRESS: The corp Media said: the final combat will be between Trump y Hillary. FALSE, both TRUMP & HILLARY REPRESENT ONLY  THE 1% OF THE NATION. The final combat will be between US-PEOPLE WHOSE LEADER IS SANDERS vs. ONE OF THE BILLONAIRES. This time US People will win!!
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2-SANDERS VOTE IS A VOTE for PEOPLE’s DIGNITY. It does not matter what the polls said. We will count our vote and we are going to make them respect it. Otherwise we will break the ballot-box in the heads of super-delegates. We will not recognize them, not either the super-pack. They are instruments of fraud.
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
Markets At Risk As "Tepid, Uninspiring" G20 Proves Investor Hopes Were "Pure Fantasy". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : They came, they saw, laugh and released a vacuous statement littered with empty promises. Now what? 

BRIEF EXTRACT 

monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth."
What?! We thought counter-cyclical Keynesian tinkering was the magic elixir. A cure-all that smooths business cycles and creates demand out of thin air. Now you’re telling us it “can’t lead to balanced growth” and implicitly that Paul Krugman is a snake oil salesman? This can’t be.

“The global recovery continues, but it remains uneven and falls short of our ambition for strong, sustainable and balanced growth," the statment continues, in a rather dour assessment of the economic landscape. "While recognising these challenges, we nevertheless judge that the magnitude of recent market volatility has not reflected the underlying fundamentals of the global economy," officials added. 

Right. If markets were "reflecting the underlying fundamentals" of this global deflationary trainwreck, things would probably be even more volatile
Predictably, everyone called on fiscal policy to save the day, in what amounts to a tacit admission that central banks have failed. "Countries will use fiscal policy flexibly to strengthen growth, job creation and confidence, while enhancing resilience and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path," the statement reads.

So countries will somehow adopt expansionary fiscal policies without resorting to deficit financing via debt sales. So, magic. Got it. 

Long story short, there is no "Shanghai Accord" … [this is..] Plaza Accord between the United States, France, West Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom, which agreed to weaken the USD to shore up America’s trade deficit and boost economic growth. All we have here is a generic statement and empty promises. 

"Investor hopes of coordinated policy actions proved to be pure fantasy,said TCW's David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury. "It’s every country for themselves."

(Janet is not amused)

[ Stupidity is contagious .. and the laugh of Lagarde is worse than Hillary’s laugh. ]
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A Chilling Forecast For Those With 20/10 Vision. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : If history proves prophetic, buckle up. Stock prices may be in for a precipitous decline.
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here is the update as of Friday's close : 


Summary

Some investors are pure technicians and only use technical analysis to allocate capital. Others disregard it entirely; swearing it off as voodoo. As chart patterns are merely a reflection of capital flows resulting from human decision making, we believe technical analysis offers useful insight and can be helpful in gaining further conviction around an investment idea.

If, by the end of February, there is indeed a crossover of the moving averages, we will have a higher level of confidence that the near­constant march higher in prices since 2009 has reversed trend.  If history proves prophetic, buckle up. Stock prices may be in for a precipitous decline.
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Keynesian Skeptics Ask "Can Binge Drinking Really Cure Alcoholism?". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : Central bankers are like alcoholics - drunk on stupidity and arrogance; and, like a suffering alcoholic, reticent to address the real problem.

[ Interesting article about China economy.]
Brief extracts

So Who Are These Binge Drinking Friends?  . Well, here we have a list of the drinkers who need to endure a hangover and deleverage. The chart below is taken from a McKinsey study where they estimated what it would take for a dozen OECD countries to begin deleveraging in terms of fiscal policy and GDP growth.

The chart below shows what additional GDP growth and fiscal adjustment (as % of GDP) would be required to begin deleveraging: For Image location press below

The main conclusion: it’s just not possible. And here’s why… In order to begin deleveraging these countries would need to sustain current GDP growth and budget surplus continuously.
Not gonna happen! Instead, debts are expected to continue rising.
CHINA
Missing from the above group is the Middle Kingdom (China?) and this is where a lot of asymmetry lies. Principally because few market participants are looking at it.
By international standards, China’s public debt level is rather benign – a mere 50% or so of GDP. But, as with virtually every animal in our sovereign debt zoo, it has a number of peculiarities worth looking at.

It is interesting to note that data on China’s government debt has changed since we did our original Global Debt Report.
The sources have changed, with China’s Ministry of Finance replaced by the IMF, and we can see now with IMF “stats” that in fact the numbers for the previous ten years of data show an almost doubling. Funny that.

This shows how cryptic the Chinese authorities are in disclosing their financial data and how difficult it is to get to the truth. If something is being hidden, it’s probably not a mere omission.

Notably, more than half of China’s government debt is that of local governments, whose borrowing grew at a an annual rate of 27% between 2007 and 2014 – 2.5x faster than central government borrowing. Local government debt reached $2.9 trillion in 2014.

Using up China’s foreign reserves for debt repayment will put pressure on the Chinese currency. A scenario we’ve already seen playing out. The country’s foreign reserves have declined by 20% since their $4 trillion peak in 2014.

Remember, since 2004 the yuan has appreciated some 60%. This has been a result of the influx of capital chasing Chinese growth as well as deliberate and consistent weakening of its trading partners currencies including the BOJ, ECB and, until recently, the US Fed.

We continue to think that the Chinese will be forced into a binge drinking session of their own, instituting a QE program which will put additional pressure on the yuan. After all, they’ll only be following from their already drunk American and European drinking buddies.

Right now they’re trying to stem capital outflows by opening up their bond markets under the guise of liberalizing their currency and internationalizing it.

“China’s latest move to open up its over $6 trillion interbank bond market allows money to flow into the country at a time of rising capital outflows, and follows smaller moves last year to give foreign investors greater access to China’s labyrinthine capital markets. Foreign investors hold approximately 2% of China’s interbank bond market, which is the third-largest in the world.”

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this game played. Don’t be fooled. Buying into Chinese corporate or sovereign bonds will be an excellent trade. But certainly not here and not now.

As this plays itself out there will be opportunities to get long, once the currency has crashed and we’ve closed out short yuan positions, we’ll almost certainly find some Chinese blue chip corporate debt trading in double digit yields.

Right now the game is decidedly on… and that game involves being short.
Great investments are forged in difficult times, and times they are difficult.
– Chris
“Always do sober what you said you’d do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.” – Ernest Hemingway
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POLITICS



This is the year of the outsider, and Hillary is the prom queen of Goldman Sachs. She represents continuity. Trump represents change ..   America is crossing into a new era. Trump seems to have caught the wave, while Clinton seems to belong to yesterday.

[ So, el coronel Trump si tiene quien le escriba y bien.  Para mi lo dicho por Snowden solo es "amor en tiempos de colera" .. pero tambien creo que Sanders cometio grave error al negar a Snowden su derecho al dissent.]
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[There is only one single point that I like from Trump: his opposition to US interventions on wars  abroad. That is huge one, given the dangerous international context. Bud Trump words on this issue are inconsistent with his experience to handle either the establishment (institutions) or the  deep-state (elite in power). Sanders has much more experience than him on this issue.]

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NY Times To Hillary: Release Those Damn Bank Speech Transcripts. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : "Voters have every right to know what Mrs. Clinton told these groups. Public interest in these speeches is legitimate, and it is the public — not the candidate — who decides how much disclosure is enough. By stonewalling on these transcripts Mrs. Clinton plays into the hands of those who say she’s not trustworthy and makes her own rules."

[ She is not going to released .. The Fed Court can push her to do it .. after the die of one .. the rest  is mute .. She will continue mocking on Law .. worse if the arrive to the Presidency. How to stop her? ]
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Obama To Expand Surveillance State Powers By Signing A 21 Page Memo.  by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : As the Apple vs. FBI battle rages in the court system and throughout the halls of Congress, Obama decides to do what he does best. Using “his pen” to make consequential decisions unilaterally.

Brief extract

Just another day in the American banana republic.
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is on the verge of permitting the National Security Agency to share more of the private communications it intercepts with other American intelligence agencies without first applying any privacy protections to them, according to officials familiar with the deliberations.

The new system would permit analysts at other intelligence agencies to obtain direct access to raw information from the N.S.A.’s surveillance to evaluate for themselves. If they pull out phone calls or email to use for their own agency’s work, they would apply the privacy protections masking innocent Americans’ information — a process known as “minimization” — at that stage, Mr. Litt said.

Executive branch officials have been developing the new framework and system for years. President George W. Bush set the change in motion through a little-noticed line in a 2008 executive order, and the Obama administration has been quietly developing a framework for how to carry it out since taking office in 2009.

Of course. After all, Obama’s entire Presidency has merely been George W. Bush’s third and fourth terms.
Unbelievable.
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
US Government Sells $680 Million In "Bunker Buster" Bombs To ISIS-Supplier Turkey. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 : "Ellwood National Forge Co., Irvine, Pennsylvania (W52P1J-16-D-0041); and General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, Garland, Texas (W52P1J-16-D-0042), were awarded a $682,900,000 firm-fixed-price, foreign military sales contract (Turkey) for BLU-109 penetrator bomb bodies and components"


GLOBAL RESEARCH


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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Mundo Derrota imperial. Guerra del opio de EEUU en Afganistán. Alfred W. McCoy
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EU. Economia y Plan B en Paris. Sobre el Plan B. Frédéric Lordón
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EE.UU. Frenen a Trump, clamor de cúpulas política y mediática del US. David Brooks. Frenar a todos los millonarios, sus super-delegados y super-packs (caso Hillary), es la tarea de hoy
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Perú.  ¡A cumplir la misión...!. G. Espinoza. [ Cual mission?.. la de burocratas impotentes de la seudo-iz? Estos impotentes no tienen alternativas contra las mafias Keiko y Garcia porque no lucharon sino transaron frente a ellos .. porque no existieron como iz .. Asumir hoy que “lo peor es nada” es Julio Garcia o que ese sujeto podría ser “esperanza sanitaria”, no equivale ni siquiera a ofrecer “el mal menor” al pueblo. Y es esto en realidad lo que queda de la iz burocrática u oficial, son ellos los que no son  “ni siquiera el mal menor” .. Desde el ángulo de la impotencia, lo más decente de esa “iz” seria la “abstención” y lo mas valiente “el sabotaje a la elecciones” . Pero ni siquiera decencia ni valentía queda en ellos. .. Por esto, porque carecen de decencia y valentía, no dicen con claridad “nuestro candidato es Julio Garcia”. Y no lo dicen porque los burócratas esperan sacar una tajadita de él, es decir, “condicionarle apoyo”, que es lo que siempre hizo la iz impotente, parasitaria, acomodaticia y arribista. .. Si Veronica Mendoza considera que Juio Garcia si es el “mal menor” .. que le de apoyo público y sin ninguna condición .. porque es realmente la iz lo que no existe en Peru .. hay que reconstruirla y eso es imposible en el caos electoral actual .. Por tanto lo más decente para ella es hablarle claro al pueblo y dar a Juio Garcia su apoyo público y retirarse de la escena electoral .. Si se queda como candidata, su persona solo servirá para hacer de la “iz” oficial el hazme-reir político.]
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US. Donald Trump y la estupidez . Álvaro Cuadra. DT es populista y nacionalista como lo fue Hitler, no estúpido. Invierte en elecciones porque esto es lo más corrupto del sistema y él es parte de eso.
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Instructivo para redes de colectivos y colectividades Pablo González Casanova Se refiere a las redes de comunicación y accion inter-actica
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UE. Un plan alternativo para construir Europa. Xavier Caño  Tamayo
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UE Europa se está resquebrajando . Adrián Mac Liman. La barca se hunde.. las ratas huyen
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¿Por qué los demócratas estadounidenses deberían temer a Donald Trump? DT y Hillary Clinton sirven los mismos intereses. Por eso se dan la mano en la prensa para decir que el evento final será entre ellos. Representan al 1% del país y buscan eliminar a Bernie Sanders. Quien es peor..diria Hillary.
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PRESS TV


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