FEB 23 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Since 1970, when bond yields rise and the
dollar sinks, the S&P
averages a 9% decline... is it different this time?
This could be a problem, as it's
happening again... and stocks are
beginning to wake up to it...
See chart
There has only been one period in
history when falling dollar and bond prices did not lead to slumping stocks...
See chart:
And that was when QE was expanded
drastically in March 2009
….
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-23/when-bonds-dollar-sink-only-thing-can-save-stocks-qe
----
----
Despite rebounds in US (and less so European) equities and
drops in both regions' 'VIX' measures, the
last few days have seen an ominous reawakening in
credit markets that is far more
systemically concerning than a volatility ETN...
SeeChart:
And
it's not just HY credit, US investment grade credit spreads are starting to
crack wider...
See Chart:
…
----
----
"Bear Markets Do Not Happen Without Recession? To
that, we say, poppycock! Time to tune out the cheerleaders..."
[[ FACTS: we’re in recession now:
check main components of GDP: 1- customers
spending is going down; 2-Wrong Govt spending:
arms, worse than ever. The world at risk of WW3; 3-
Investors survive with fake air (QEs & free money printed from the thin air
–is called ‘correction’) = higher debt; there is
not real capital auto-reproduction anymore. Mid-production capital has been
dumped in favor of big speculators in WS, that refuse to pay Tobin Tax; 4- the balance between imports and exports is negative & skewed to benefit big corp inside the Mil-Ind-Complex. 5- Inflation is real & people suffer it = current explosive
inequality is going up = violence everywhere. Kids are now the target, later
will be investors. All these are signs of Recession; WE
can’t hide it with fake Stats. 6- High
Volatility is real & it doesn’t provide neither comfort nor security to no-body. 7- If this continue
for 6 more months we will end-up in huge depression
similar to 1929. WHAT TO DO? Design a
Post neoliberal project and make the necessary political ‘corrections’
to implement it. FDR did it and is time to do it again.
If this change doesn’t come from the top, States
will do it & bye - bye to this FED. Hugo Adan Feb
23-18 ]]
----
----
Here one of the sharks that
neoliberal system feed. Their Money gluttony is without limits &
beyond laws to force them to pay Tobin tax -or similar- to alleviate effects of
current explosive inequality
"There’s no way I can come back here three
years from now and tell you that we hold $150 billion or so in cash or more,
and we
think we’re doing something brilliant by doing it..."
Forbes magazine: the "Dow
will be over a million" over the next 100 years and "that is not a
ridiculous forecast".
Of course, the second part
of that statement was promptly ignored by the financial media, which churned
out "shock and awe" headlines like "Warren
Buffett Says The Dow Is Going Over One Million."
Without context, this might
appear to be an incredibly bullish call. But Dow one million 100 years from now
would actually represent a deceleration in the Dow's CAGR to 3.9% pre-tax, or
closer to just 3% post-tax returns per year (assuming tax rates don't trend
toward 100% during the intervening period). A more optimistic prediction (at least based on past
performance) would be for the Dow to hit 140,000,000 in 100 years.
See Chart:
Well, we received another update on Buffett's long-term
thinking on Friday when the Wall
Street Journal reported that Berkshire
Hathaway is holding more than $100 billion in cash or cash-equivalents - i.e. Treasury
bills - on its balance sheet.
Berkshire is now one of the largest
holders of Treasury debt.
However, Buffett has been
promising to find a home for the cash for a few years now - which makes one
wonder whether this is part of a deliberate strategy...
Berkshire has used its mounting
cash pile to become one of the world’s largest owners of U.S. Treasury bills
after struggling to find big companies to buy in recent years.
It held $109 billion in cash as
of Sept. 30, up from $86 billion at the end of 2016 and more than double what it had at the end of 2006. Nearly all of that was invested in
short-term bills, according to Mr.
Buffett.
Berkshire has an outsize presence in the $2 trillion
market for Treasury bills, a type of government debt that matures in a year or
less. It held more than large countries
such as China and the U.K. It also had more at that time than the $13.5 billion
held collectively by a group of 23 primary bond dealers that are obligated to
underwrite U.S. government debt sales.
Berkshire’s holdings are big
enough that when bond dealers need bills for a specific date, they will come to
Berkshire and arrange a trade, Mr. Buffett
said.
"We’re the ones they call. We’ve got the best
inventory," Mr. Buffett said in a 2017 interview with The Wall
Street Journal. "That’s a new sideline for us here."
...
"There’s no way I can come back here three
years from now and tell you that we hold $150 billion or so in cash or more, and we think we’re doing something brilliant by doing it," he said
at Berkshire’s annual meeting last May. "I would say that history is on
our side, but it would
be more fun if the phone would ring."
Buffett has famously resisted handing out dividends to
investors - but has said Berkshire would begin buying back stock if shares ever
fall below 120% of book value.Both
classes of Berkshire stock were trading at 165% on Thursday.
Berkshire earns revenue from holding
and trading its Treasury bills, but the profit is minimal relative to its
overall business operations. Berkshire’s head trader, Mark Millard,
opted not to speak with WSJ.
Berkshire
typically buys about $4 billion in Treasury bills every Monday at government
auctions, or less than 4% of
what the Treasury is selling, Mr. Buffett said on CNBC in January.
He joked: “We’re very careful about how many we bid for.”
Buffett's probity famously allowed
Berkshire to throw a life line (and secure desperation deals that proved
to be extremely lucrative over the following years) to
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
But with so much cash on hand, Buffett
would have wide latitude to take advantage of the next downturn, potentially
positioning Berkshire to buy whatever's on its
wish list at a substantial discount.
Could this really be Buffett hinting that, though he feels compelled to maintain his optimistic rhetoric in
public, he's in reality bracing for the next
crash?
….
----
----
"The
recent decoupling has coincided with bouts of inflation and/or market
volatility: on average inflation rose
2ppt, equities fell 9% and volatility rose 22ppt."
See Chart:
Going back to the original indicator which prompted BofA to
- correctly - predict an imminent correction at the
end of January, Hartnett writes that the bank's
proprietary Bull & Bear indicator
remains stuck at 8.2.
See chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/bofa%20bull%20bear%204.jpg?itok=qAbRVODT
In other words, just like Goldman's
pointed out earlier this week, this suggests that excess optimism continues on risk assets, thus the "pain trade for stocks &
credit still go downside"
…
----
----
“Based on my own personal experience – both as
an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely
do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.”
Myth 1: Tax
cuts will lead to a huge ramp up in earnings.
As shown
by the red horizontal bars – estimates through Q3 are at the same level they
were in January, 2017. (Of course, “hope springs eternal that Q4
of this year will see one of the sharpest ramps in earnings in S&P
history.)
Chart below or here
Myth 2:
Corporations will use those tax cuts to hire employees and boost wages
See chart here or below
Policymakers
had the opportunity to pass true, pro-growth, tax reform and show they were
serious about our nations fiscal future, they instead opted to continue
enriching the top 1% at the expense of empowering the middle class.
HERE IS YOUR WEEKEND
READING LIST.
Economy
& Fed
- Have Both Sides Misunderstood Tax Cuts by Geoff Colvin via Fortune
- Trump Needs To Return “King Dollar” by Lawrence Kudlow via RCM
- Trump Will Cause The Next Recession by David Dayen via The New Republic
- The Biggest Lies About Trump’s Budget by Stan Collender via Forbes
- The Economy Is Booming by Gary Shapiro via The American Spectator
- Is The Economic Tide About To Go Out? by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting Man blog
- Dangerous Thinking On Deficits by Scott Sumner via The Money Illusion
----
Markets
- Come The Next Recession, Don’t Count On That Safety Net by Eduardo Porter via NY Times
- Fed President Sounds Alarm On US Debt by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- The Fed’s Problem With Interest Income by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
- How Inflation & Rates Affect Stocks by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
- Tales We’ll Be Told In The Next Downturn by Jonathan Clements via Humble Dollar
- Best Ways To Weather This Market by Paul Sullivan via NYT
- Bearish Bond Data May Be Leading Traders Astray by David Ader via Bloomberg
- Time To Buy What’s Not Hot by Simon Maierhofer via MarketWatch
- Why Worst May Be Over by Ryan Vlastelica via MarketWatch
- Why Yields Have Investors Worried by Sunny Oh via MarketWatch
- Analysts On TV Don’t Understand How Economy Works by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- Corporate Debt & The Everything Bubble by Jesse Colombo via RIA
- Recent Volatility Is A Gift For Investors by John Coumarianos vis RIA
----
Research /
Interesting Reads
- Record Short Treasury Bets Begs Reversion by Dana Dovey via Newsweek
- Applying Wisdom Of John Wooden To Your Investments by Michael Cannivet via RCM
- 10-Breakthrough Technologies For 2018 via MIT Technology Review
- The Downside Of Capitalism by Tim Wu via NYT
- Will You Outlive Your Retirement Savings by Maurie Backman via Motley Fool
- Always In Need Of Thinkers Like Bastiat by Henry Hazlitt via Mises Institute
- Rydex Bears Come Out Of Hibernation by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-23/weekend-reading-tax-reform-doing-exactly-what-we-expected
----
----
POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
Un
policía espera órdenes y esas nunca no llegaron. Acaso les pagan para ser acribillados y perder
la vida en violencia armadas que el sistema neoliberal crea y recrea con sus guerras abroad.
"Some Coral Springs police were stunned and upset that the four
original Broward County Sheriff's deputies who were first on the scene did not
appear to join them as they entered the school..."
----
----
WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"Most of it is because of this atmosphere of uncertainty which
President Trump has created around JCPOA,
which prevents all big companies and banks to work with Iran, it's a fact..."
----
----
"If China decided to cut off these SPECIAL MATERIALS, the entire US military would cease to
function in short order..."
The guidance systems
on the Tomahawk cruise missiles Trump launched at Syria depend on special materials that
China has a near monopoly on producing. Surely, Xi knew
this. Though Trump probably didn’t at the time.
And
it’s not just the missiles...
If China decided to
cut off these special materials, the entire US military would cease to function
in short order.
Trump
already threatened to cut off trade with any country that does business with
North Korea. He was talking about China. .. IF Trump kick China out of the US
dollar -if it doesn’t crack down on North Korea- that would be akin to dropping
a financial nuclear bomb on Beijing. This shows
Trump’s frustration. It also means trade penalties against China could be
imminent.
I think
a full-blown trade war is coming soon.
But China has a big
card to play. It could restrict access to that special material I
just mentioned—the material used to make
advanced electronic components, like the Tomahawk cruise missile guidance
system.
China has used this strategy before. About six years
ago, it restricted exports during a spat with Japan. The supply crunch caused a
veritable mania in the special material’s industry.
…
----
----
Sanctions against China already started: a war deemed to be
lost.. is play it in their camp
The rates
were first proposed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross last week.
Defying threats
of retaliation from the Chinese, Bloomberg reports
that President Trump is pushing for a global tariff of 24% on all steel
imports, a decision that will anger nearly every industrial manufacturer based
in the US, while at the same time helping revive the fortunes of US steel
producers.
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-23/trump-wants-harshest-import-tariffs-24-steel-10-aluminum
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
----
----
----
----
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
----
Trump Sets Deadly Precedent by Hiding
Rationale for Bombing Syria By
Marjorie Cohn
----
Gaza ‘On Brink Of Collapse’ As Residents
Remain ‘Caged In’ By Norman Finkelstein
----
Capitalism as Obstacle to Equality and Democracy:
the US Story By Richard D.
Wolff
----
Capitalist Utopia By Umair Haque
----
----
"Violence Is in the DNA of American
Society" By Allen Ruff
and Henry A. Giroux
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
RELATED 1:
RELATED 2:
----
----
[[ Nasty precedents: mixing politics
with sports .. put US sport-tournaments at risk
]]
RELATED:
----
----
----
Trump:
If North Korea Sanctions Don't Work, We Go to 'Phase 2' That will ‘end’ your regime
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
RT SHOWS
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
El Zoom EE.UU.: La ley del plomo
----
----
PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
----
----
S
Korea says it cannot recognize nuclear North The
problem is in your house
----
----
RU announc to take out US from
Syria-Iraq.. easy to know what comes next
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Killing innocent people just to negotiate best deal with
super-powers, no ethics
----
----
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario