FEB 11 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
Si me quiere conocer: mírame desde el OLIMPO
de tu ESPIRITU. VER final de este reporte. Hugo Adan
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
After last week's market plunge,
suddenly the pension mandate has flipped, with the relative performance between
stocks and bonds now meaning that pension
funds have shifted from buyers to sellers of fixed income.
See Chart:
Translated: one more marginal
buyer for the 10Y has stepped to the side, if only for the time being, which
is a negative catalyst not only for rates, obviously, but also for risk assets,
which continue to be driven by the total return correlation, forcing further
risk parity and vol-targeting unwinds after the worst week since Lehman.
See chart:
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"Bottom line, we haven't reached the short-term bottom, but you'll know
it when you see it (or at least 5 minutes later!). But longer-term, I do
believe this is a genuine regime change, one where you sell-he-rallies rather
than buy-the-dips."
Brian Levine - co-head of global equity trading at
Goldman Sachs - sent out an email to the investment bank’s bigger clients, in
which he made a stunning prediction: the Buy the Dip
Regime is now over.
In the email, first reported by the Financial
Times, Levine writes that "Historically shocks
of this magnitude find their troughs in panicky selling" and yet
"I’ve been amazed at how little ‘capitulation selling’ we’ve seen on the
desk . . . The ‘buy on the dip’ mentality needs to be
thoroughly punished before we find the bottom."
And, more shockingly, the person in charge of the most important trading desk also said that “longer term, I do believe this is a genuine regime change,
one where you sell-the-rallies rather than buy-the-dips."
Discussion:
- SPX currently down 3% YTD. Through yesterday client performance is hanging in, with both Equity Long/Short and Quant performance in range of flat to down 1%.
Bottom line, we haven't reached the short-term bottom, but you'll know it when you see
it (or at least 5 minutes later!). But longer-term, I do believe this is a
genuine regime change, one where you sell-he-rallies rather than buy-the-dips.
See more discussion
of this thesis at the source below:
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The world context:
1-
"...today, systemic risk is more
dangerous than ever. Each crisis is bigger than the one before... Too-big-to-fail
banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the
banking system, and have much larger derivatives books."
In
reality, Wall Street bailed out itself.
The panic of 2008 was an even more extreme version
of 1998. We were
days, if not hours, from the sequential collapse of every major bank in the
world. Think of the dominoes again. What had happened there? You had a banking
crisis.
Except
in 2008, Wall Street did not bail out a hedge fund; instead the central banks
bailed out Wall Street.
And today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever. Each crisis is bigger than the one
before.Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of
the total assets of the banking system, and have much larger derivatives books.
New automated trading algorithms like high-frequency
trading techniques used in stock markets could add to liquidity in normal
times, but the liquidity could disappear instantly in
times of market stress. And when the catalyst is triggered and panic
commences, impersonal dynamics take on a life of their own.
These kinds of sudden, unexpected
crashes that seems to emerge from nowhere are entirely consistent with the
predictions of complexity theory.
…
Continue reading at:
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2-
Is the
global economy ready to embark on a tightening cycle as the common narrative
suggests. No - well we don't think so, and there are signs that the
market is starting to call the central banks out on this one.
See Chart:
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3- PAY ATTENTION TO THIS
ONE
"No, nothing has happened yet. This is an appetizer. This is just
the appetizer for the unwind that is about to come...And it will be quite
disorderly and ugly."
Professionals investors are still digesting the implications of last
week's explosion of volatility, while some retail traders are struggling to
cope with the loss
of years' worth of work.
Meanwhile, one man, who was fortunate enough to have his warnings about
the possibility of an explosion of volatility triggered by a dangerously large
short-gamma positioning in markets documented by the New
York Times, is sitting pretty as his illustration of the risks associated
with the market's dangerous sense of calm have proven to be almost eerily
correct.
See chart:
CTAs and
RP funds got hammered by the selloff, as the index below shows, but they're
still a danger as both algorithms and their human handlers have grown
accustomed to dip buying at every turn.
See chart:
Both retail
investors and institutions were hit hard by the events last week. but instead
of bracing for more turmoil, reasoning that this explosion could be a symptom
of a much more dangerous systemic risk, many chose to listen to the incoherent
rantings of a certain CNBC personality, and have mindlessly bought
the dip once again...
In
stocks..
See chart:
And in
Inverse VIX products...
See Chart:
To them we remember
Chris Cole's parting words: "it will be quite disorderly and ugly."
OPEN: Jared Dillian: The week short vol
imploded
Cole's interview begins about an hour into the episode:
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Beginning in 2013, with the taper tantrum, the Critical Stress Signal has
been a remarkable contrarian indicator as it has closely aligned with the
timing of central banks either verbally or physically intervening to calm
markets. So far, however, central banks are keeping radio silence...
See Chart:
…
See more charts at
this source:
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"ARE YOU READY FOR THE INEVITABLE?"
Virtually every stock market sentiment and
positioning indicator has, like the stock market itself, gone from new extreme
to new extreme for months. Numerous commentators, including SLL, have been
warning for months, even years. Pick a valuation measure and stocks, even after
the last two weeks, are at peak valuations rivaled only by 1929, 2000, and
2007.
The only mystery
was when they would give way. If they are now in fact giving way, then there’s
no mystery about how bad it’s going to get. Very bad.
The Treasury debt market has been the dark cloud on the horizon since
short-term bill rates made their low in mid-2015. The Fed followed, as it almost always does, raising the federal funds
rate target (from zero) for the first time in seven years December 2015.
That
markets lead, not follow the Fed, is an inconvenient truth for the legions of
commentators and analysts who routinely assert the Fed controls interest rates. It
shoots a hole in a lot of theories and models. (For substantiation that the
Fed follows the market, see The Socionomic Theory of Finance, Chapter 3, Robert
Prechter.)
The
ten-year note made its (price) high in July 2016 and has been trending
irregularly lower - and interest rates irregularly higher - since. Higher interest rates raise the
cost of leveraged speculation, production, and consumption. Yet, leveraged
speculators in the stock market only seem to have noticed rising yields the
past couple of weeks.
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We had this experience in RU two decades ago: Similar to
1930 in the US
"Just as the Soviet Union didn’t know the correct price of sugar,
nor do the well-intentioned economists of our global central banks know where
interest rates should be... Even
more important, they can’t predict the consequences of their actions."
When I
left Soviet Russia in 1991, I thought I would never see a command-and-control
economy again. I was wrong.
Photo Image
Over the past decade the global economy has started
to resemble one, as well-meaning economists running central banks have been
setting the price for the most important commodity in the world: money.
Americans have a
healthy distrust of their politicians.
Unfortunately,
we don’t share the same distrust for economists and central bankers.
Just as the well-meaning economists of the Soviet Union didn’t know the
correct price of sugar, nor do the good-intentioned
economists of our global central banks know where interest rates should be.
Even more important, they can’t predict the consequences of their actions.
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Dissonance.. the other feature of volatility
Friday's
late-day panic-buying has prompted some further excitement as futures open with
The Dow up 200 points, just managing to take out Friday's high stops...
See Chart:
….
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-11/dow-futures-200-run-friday-stops-dollar-bonds-sink
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Escaping from reality :
We have officially gone from "Bitcoin is a
fraud" to "cryptocurrencies
could potentially have a role in diversifying one’s global bond and equity
portfolio"...
See Chart:
Cryptocurrency liquidity in the
context of all other major asset classes.
See chart:
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
The White
House has released more specifics about the $1.5 trillion infrastructure that
Trump promised during his first "State of the Union" address
following several trial balloon leaks.
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"...people who voted for tax cuts and spending increases... I
think there is some hypocrisy there and
it shows they're not serious about the
debt..."
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“We believe Congressman Schiff
intentionally put in there methods and sources that he knew would need to be
redacted. And if we redacted it, there would be an outcry that says the White
House is trying to edit it."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
“I don’t have the evidence,” Mattis said. “What I
am saying is that other groups on the ground – NGOs, fighters on the ground –
have said that sarin has been used, so we are looking for evidence.”
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It
seems that every time a chapter in the war on Syria comes to an end, a new factor surfaces...
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
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Syria - Is War With Israel Imminent By
Moon Of Alabama
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Foreign Policy for Sale: Greece’s Dangerous
Alliance with Israel By Ramzy
Baroud
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Winter Sports Instead of Nuclear War By Eric Margolis
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What’s Really Behind America’s Objections to
Trump’s Military Parade By
Finian Cunningham
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Natural Born Killers? By Lawrence Davidson
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A Mother’s Lesson On Peace By Cesar Chelala
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Making America Great Through Exploitation,
Servitude and Abuse By James
Petras
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The Battle for Venezuela By Aljazeera
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
IMF
Chief: Stock Market Turmoil Not a Major Concern .. Absolute
incompetent!
“sharp stock market fluctuations
don’t pose a major threat to global economic stability, as the pace of GDP
expansion across the largest economies remains solid” Said Christine Lagarde,
IMF Director
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RELATED:
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RELATED 1:
RELATED 2:
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Monday strike by low-wage earners working in restaurants.
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RELATED 1:
RELATED 2:
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After offering to the South her intended to end seven decades
of hostility.
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False flags diplomacy: tit for tat?:
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RT SHOWS:
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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El
Imposible final del “Homo Sovieticus”
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Empezaron a caer aviones..
sospecho del caos WW3 que se avecina
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¿Es esta
la más mortífera arma de China? LA PAZ? YES
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El arte de mentir lo escribió Vargas Llosa hace 20
años y la Hon Em alguien lo dijo hace 10
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“El espíritu es como un paraguas: se estira y
se arruga al compás de la lluvia. Puede ser un minuto
de inspiración divina, o solo el pedo de un muerto que se sienta a rezar. Si
existe el espíritu es porque nosotros los humanos lo creamos: NO existe en
ningún Olimpo, Templo, ni velorio alguno, solo en nuestra mente. Alguien podría
decir que el espíritu de la guerra está rondando el mundo y muchos podrían
coincidir en ello .. alguien incluso podría olerlo o saborearlo en el salmón
contaminado que comen, ese que exporta Noruega a la periferia.. Si el espíritu
es visible o perceptible por los sentidos es porque queremos que exista así, como
utopía y distopia a la vez. La verdad es que el pedo del muerto existe y el
salmón contaminado también .. generalizar desde allí, es lo invalido Si
es así, el espíritu existe como mera intuición u observación pre-sentida; es decir, como verdad preliminar.. no valida ante las leyes
de la lógica ni la razón, solo como mera observación atenta de lo ocurre en el
bosque . sin explicar nada en absoluto ni siquiera un árbol en particular. Si
te cae la lluvia.. es porque no llevas paraguas, dirían los creyentes. NOS decimos
lo inverso: es porque saliste al
encuentro de la naturaleza. LO REAL es que la
lluvia existe, aun si no tienes paraguas”. Hugo Adan. Feb 11-18
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PRESS
TV
Global
situation described by Iranian observers..
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The happiest point is the
attempt of unity of North-South Korea
The sadness one: The US
embassy-zealot’s manipulation against unity
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