FEB 12 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The number
of 2% SPX moves in February alone are greater than in the past 7 quarters
combined, while Monday’s move saw a disproportionate move in the weighted average
VIX futures due to rebalancing of inverse and levered VIX ETPs
See chart:
... and weighted average single stock volatility of SPX components (3M
ATM IV spread). For now SPX short-dated
vols higher vs. RUT but longer-dated remains below.
See Chart: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/db%20vol%204.jpg?itok=4Zd6cOY7
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The illusion that risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years...
The illusion that
risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years.
Each bubble collapse caused more structural damage, and each central bank "save" introduced higher levels of systemic
fragility, which is another way of saying systemic risk.
See chart Asses Prices vs GDP at
this source:
…
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Is
everything awesome?
Almost 1400 points 'off the lows'..
See Chart:
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/dow-soars-over-500-points-retraces-50-volocaust-plunge
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"The
tax cuts passed late last year, combined with the spending bill Congress passed
last week will push deficits sharply higher."
See chart:
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"Many noted when Trump was elected that his greatest asset
may be his knowledge of bankruptcy and reorganization... and the time is
coming soon (whether America recognizes this or not quite yet) where
this skill set will be put to the test."
See chart:
While the federal deficit (as a
% of GDP) has presently been significantly reduced...the Fed's selling of its
assets simultaneous to hiking rates with minimal deficit spending is far more than the tenuous post GFC cobbled
system can handle.
See chart:
A consumer
driven economy with record low savings rates and sporting near record
trade deficits will have the least potential organic growth in US
history among the consuming population (and I
explain HERE why
population growth will only continue down). The red line in the chart
below shows the savings rate is back to record lows (what consumers have
left to save or invest after expenses) versus record high household net worth
(value of all assets; RE, stocks, bonds, etc.) as a percentage of disposable
income (all sources of income remaining after taxation).
See chart:
Said otherwise, there is no growth
but the growth of debt. And this takes no account of the far larger and
more pernicious unfunded liabilities.
See Chart:
The above chart also shows estimates through 2025.
And this assumes no recessions from 2009 through 2025...a period of
"growth" unlike the nation has ever seen while the nations
populace (consumptive force) grows at the lowest levels. Even in the
happiest of scenarios, America will continue moving
backward...while more realistically, America is almost sure to face
economic, financial, and social calamity in the near term. But this is
not simply an American problem...it is truly global in its scope (detailed
HERE).
Many noted when Trump was elected that his
greatest asset may be his knowledge of bankruptcy and reorganization...and the
time is coming soon (whether America recognizes this or not
quite yet) where this skill set will be put to the test.
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/why-continuing-down-path-leaves-america-no-win-scenario
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According
to the Trump Budget released today, total
US debt is forecast to rise from $20.5 trillion today to an unprecedented $29.9
trillion in 2028.
Now, following today's release of the White House budget
proposal from the Office of the Management and Budget, Moody's will have even
greater motivation to downgrade the US as according to the forecast, total US debt is projected to rise
from $20.5 trillion today to an unprecedented $29.9 trillion in 2028.
See chart:
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/trump-budget-sees-us-debt-hitting-30-trillion-2028
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"Instead, we think the
passage of tax cuts coincided with peak excitement, at least in terms of
price/valuation and 'speculation' as represented by things like
Bitcoin..."
While stocks soared almost unprecedentedly higher in January
before collapsing in February, market valuations did
not peak two weeks ago...
See Chart:
In fact, equity
market P/E actually peaked back on December 18th, the day before Trump Tax Bill
passed The Senate.
We find it instructive and rational that the market multiple did in
fact peak that day. It
also makes us feel a little better than our instinct was right even if our call
for a market pause was wrong!
Furthermore, we find it instructive that Bitcoin
also peaked on December 18th.
See
chart:
Coincidence?
We don't think so.
Instead,
we think the passage of tax cuts coincided with peak excitement, at least in terms of price/valuation and
"speculation" as represented by things like Bitcoin.
Morgan Stanley
notes that their expectations of rising equity vol led by rates/FX vol and
earnings estimate dispersion, are playing out, which they suggest should lead to lower multiples on
higher, albeit lower quality, EPS driven by tax cuts but accompanied by falling
operating margins.
Finally, they conclude, this vol shock/liquidity
event has likely taken valuations too low at this point but realize such events have
a way of overshooting to the
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"Powell himself has stated that he was concerned that quantitative
easing would end up being habit-forming for the markets... So I read his silence these last
few days as prudent...not babysitter to the stock market."
LISTEN VIDEO:
"While it is believed ETF investors have become 'passive', the
reality is they have simply become 'active' investors in a different form... as 'passive' indexers turn into
'active panic-sellers'..."
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"The
tax cuts passed late last year, combined with the spending bill Congress passed
last week will push deficits sharply higher."
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"Everything is supposedly
totally awesome in the United States. The economy is strong,
unemployment is low, tax revenue is at record levels...And yet they’re still losing trillions of dollars
every year?"
Make no mistake: higher interest rates will have an enormous impact on just
about EVERYTHING.
Bottom line, all three of the US government’s biggest lenders are no
longer buyers of US debt.
There’s a pretty obvious conclusion here: interest rates
have to rise.
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Blomberg
dollar index: "A
Historic Reversal": Dollar, Treasurys Slide As Trump Drops Target For
"Balanced Budget"
The dollar has weakened for a second
day amid concerns President Donald Trump’s budget proposal - to be
released later today - will drop a longstanding Republican Party goal to balance the budget in 10
years, a move described as a "historic
reversal."
See Chart:
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"No surprises":
that is how Goldman summarizes today's detailed
infrastructure proposal released by the White House, which the bank says has
"low
odds of enactment this year."
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In what
would be one of the biggest shakeups of the U.S. food-stamp program in its
five-decade history, President Trump proposed to slash cash payments and
substitute them with "100 percent American grown food" given to
recipients.
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"Have they all
lost their collective minds? I
see no party even pretending to care anymore. Debt ceilings? Gimmicks. Fiscal conservatives? A slogan. Caring
about the obligations of future obligations? Nobody
cares."
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...these are the same bonds
that had the distinction of being the first to be wiped out/bailed in under new
EU banking regulations when Santander took over Banco Popular last
year...
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Following Israel's dramatic airstrikes on Syria on Saturday in the most dramatic military escalation in the region in
years, Iran unveiled a series of new
domestic nuclear-capable ballistic missiles during military parades...
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"If there was large-scale loss of life of Russian citizens, the
relevant officials, including the commander-in-chief of our armed forces (Putin), are obliged
to tell the country about it and decide who carries responsibility for this."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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[[ “Russia’s passivity is inviting
nuclear war or Russian surrender”.
Totally agree with this Statmt. The FACT is that Four countries have already
started WW3: US, Israel, UK and Saudis. Israel
advance in Syria -3days ago- was just the tip of the iceberg hided below sea
waters. Now the
US is inviting RU to surrender, and
indirectly to China too. Later on, they both -RU-Chi- will be demolished .. it was and it is the US plan. So, RU-China should act
together NOW.. START by calling the US to an Agreement for
immediate dismantle of nuclear power, and Chemical-biolog weapons of
mass-destruction. If they do not answer.. ACCEPT AS A FACT THEIR
DECLARATION OF WW3 IN THE MIDDLE EAST and RESPOND TO THEM UP TO THEIR SURRENDER.
Their invitation to WW3 from US-UK-Israel and Saudis WAS
NOT PASSIVE .. it was a brutal criminal attack that is causing too much
death and destruction –worse than the Nazis attack in WW2—Today declaration of WW3 by those 4 States are also a
calculated genocidal attack and THAT DEMANDS IMMEDIATE ANSWER. RU has
been humiliated several times at the economic and political level now they are
doing so in Sports. Enough is enough, is time to
respond! ]]
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
The FBI and the President – Mutual
Manipulation By James Petras
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A President Held Hostage By Justin Raimondo
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How Establishment Propaganda Gaslights Us
Into Submission By Caitlin Johnstone
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A Pentagon Budget Like None Before: $700
billion
By R BURNS and R LARDNER
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President Donald J. Trump’s American
Infrastructure Initiative By The White House
How to be sure that money won’t be used for more wars.. to
profit Milit-Indust-Comp?
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Who is attacking the US?.. or in reverse: Is the US the
attacker of world PEACE & Amer life ?
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COUNTER PUNCH
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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Iraq Al
US no le importa: -la conferencia sobre reconstrucción de Iraq
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FLOPY Cuento
Corto
Hugo Adan. Feb 12-18
En mi casa Gobierna Flopy: un gato angora negro, que no puede ingresar al
palacio pues sufro Asma Pero en mi porch tiene 2 casas, una con calefacción
eléctrica. El dia que muera Flopy ira al cielo. Me lo dijo y prometió abrirme las puertas . El Dios
de los gatos esta de Ado y va construyendo una casa para asmáticos en el porch
de Flopy.. Le pregunte si también me darán 7 vidas. Me dijo: SI. De forma que no tengo que pasar el purgatorio ni
rendir cuenta a dioses ni diablos de los “humanos”. Yo ya tengo futuro asegurado
para mi 2da vida y no me preocupa si los caníbales terrestres incendian el
mundo con el WW3. No tendré que mendigar a los “billos” que me den espacio en
sus ‘bunkers’. Ya lo tengo: la marmota y su hijo –amigos de Flopy- están terminando
un túnel inmenso para que yo y Flopy podamos protegernos de la guerra mundial
que se avecina.
… Continuara
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PRESS
TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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