lunes, 12 de febrero de 2018

FEB 12 18 SIT EC y POL



FEB 12 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

The number of 2% SPX moves in February alone are greater than in the past 7 quarters combined, while Monday’s move saw a disproportionate move in the weighted average VIX futures due to rebalancing of inverse and levered VIX ETPs
See chart:

... and weighted average single stock volatility of SPX components (3M ATM IV spread). For now SPX short-dated vols higher vs. RUT but longer-dated remains below.
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The illusion that risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years...

The illusion that risk can be limited delivered three asset bubbles in less than 20 years. Each bubble collapse caused more structural damage, and each central bank "save" introduced higher levels of systemic fragility, which is another way of saying systemic risk.
See chart Asses Prices vs GDP at this source:
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Is everything awesome?
Almost 1400 points 'off the lows'..
See Chart:
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"The tax cuts passed late last year, combined with the spending bill Congress passed last week will push deficits sharply higher."
See chart:
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"Many noted when Trump was elected that his greatest asset may be his knowledge of bankruptcy and reorganization... and the time is coming soon (whether America recognizes this or not quite yet) where this skill set will be put to the test."
See chart:

While the federal deficit (as a % of GDP) has presently been significantly reduced...the Fed's selling of its assets simultaneous to hiking rates with minimal deficit spending is far more than the tenuous post GFC cobbled system can handle.
See chart:

A consumer driven economy with record low savings rates and sporting near record trade deficits will have the least potential organic growth in US history among the consuming population (and I explain HERE why population growth will only continue down).  The red line in the chart below shows the savings rate is back to record lows (what consumers have left to save or invest after expenses) versus record high household net worth (value of all assets; RE, stocks, bonds, etc.) as a percentage of disposable income (all sources of income remaining after taxation).
See chart:

Said otherwise, there is no growth but the growth of debt.  And this takes no account of the far larger and more pernicious unfunded liabilities.
See Chart:
The above chart also shows estimates through 2025. 
And this assumes no recessions from 2009 through 2025...a period of "growth" unlike the nation has ever seen while the nations populace (consumptive force) grows at the lowest levels.  Even in the happiest of scenarios, America will continue moving backward...while more realistically, America is almost sure to face economic, financial, and social calamity in the near term.  But this is not simply an American problem...it is truly global in its scope (detailed HERE).

Many noted when Trump was elected that his greatest asset may be his knowledge of bankruptcy and reorganization...and the time is coming soon (whether America recognizes this or not quite yet) where this skill set will be put to the test.
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According to the Trump Budget released today, total US debt is forecast to rise from $20.5 trillion today to an unprecedented $29.9 trillion in 2028.
Now, following today's release of the White House budget proposal from the Office of the Management and Budget, Moody's will have even greater motivation to downgrade the US as according to the forecast, total US debt is projected to rise from $20.5 trillion today to an unprecedented $29.9 trillion in 2028.
See chart:
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"Instead, we think the passage of tax cuts coincided with peak excitement, at least in terms of price/valuation and 'speculation' as represented by things like Bitcoin..."

While stocks soared almost unprecedentedly higher in January before collapsing in February, market valuations did not peak two weeks ago...
See Chart:

In fact, equity market P/E actually peaked back on December 18th, the day before Trump Tax Bill passed The Senate.
We find it instructive and rational that the market multiple did in fact peak that day. It also makes us feel a little better than our instinct was right even if our call for a market pause was wrong!
Furthermore, we find it instructive that Bitcoin also peaked on December 18th.
See chart:

Coincidence? We don't think so.
Instead, we think the passage of tax cuts coincided with peak excitement, at least in terms of price/valuation and "speculation" as represented by things like Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley notes that their expectations of rising equity vol led by rates/FX vol and earnings estimate dispersion, are playing out, which they suggest should lead to lower multiples on higher, albeit lower quality, EPS driven by tax cuts but accompanied by falling operating margins.
Finally, they conclude, this vol shock/liquidity event has likely taken valuations too low at this point but realize such events have a way of overshooting to the 
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"Powell himself has stated that he was concerned that quantitative easing would end up being habit-forming for the markets... So I read his silence these last few days as prudent...not babysitter to the stock market."
LISTEN VIDEO:

"While it is believed ETF investors have become 'passive', the reality is they have simply become 'active' investors in a different form... as 'passive' indexers turn into 'active panic-sellers'..."
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"The tax cuts passed late last year, combined with the spending bill Congress passed last week will push deficits sharply higher."
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"Everything is supposedly totally awesome in the United States. The economy is strong, unemployment is low, tax revenue is at record levels...And yet they’re still losing trillions of dollars every year?"

Make no mistake: higher interest rates will have an enormous impact on just about EVERYTHING.
Bottom line, all three of the US government’s biggest lenders are no longer buyers of US debt.
There’s a pretty obvious conclusion hereinterest rates have to rise.
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The dollar has weakened for a second day amid concerns President Donald Trump’s budget proposal - to be released later today - will drop a longstanding Republican Party goal to balance the budget in 10 years, a move described as a "historic reversal."
See Chart:
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


"No surprises": that is how Goldman summarizes today's detailed infrastructure proposal released by the White House, which the bank says has "low odds of enactment this year."
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In what would be one of the biggest shakeups of the U.S. food-stamp program in its five-decade history, President Trump proposed to slash cash payments and substitute them with "100 percent American grown food" given to recipients.
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


"Have they all lost their collective minds? I see no party even pretending to care anymore. Debt ceilings? Gimmicks. Fiscal conservatives? A slogan. Caring about the obligations of future obligations? Nobody cares."
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...these are the same bonds that had the distinction of being the first to be wiped out/bailed in under new EU banking regulations when Santander took over Banco Popular last year...
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Following Israel's dramatic airstrikes on Syria on Saturday in the most dramatic military escalation in the region in years, Iran unveiled a series of new domestic nuclear-capable ballistic missiles during military parades...
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"If there was large-scale loss of life of Russian citizens, the relevant officials, including the commander-in-chief of our armed forces (Putin), are obliged to tell the country about it and decide who carries responsibility for this."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO


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[[ “Russia’s passivity is inviting nuclear war or Russian surrender”.  Totally agree with this Statmt. The FACT is that Four countries have already started WW3: US, Israel, UK and Saudis. Israel advance in Syria -3days ago- was just the tip of the iceberg hided below sea waters.  Now the US is inviting RU to surrender,  and indirectly to China too. Later on, they both -RU-Chi- will be demolished .. it was and it is the US plan. So, RU-China should act together NOW.. START by calling the US to  an Agreement for immediate dismantle of nuclear power, and Chemical-biolog weapons of mass-destruction. If they do not answer.. ACCEPT AS A FACT THEIR DECLARATION OF WW3 IN THE MIDDLE EAST and RESPOND TO THEM UP TO THEIR SURRENDER. Their invitation to WW3 from US-UK-Israel and Saudis WAS NOT PASSIVE .. it was a brutal criminal attack that is causing too much death and destructionworse than the Nazis attack in WW2—Today declaration of WW3 by those 4 States are also a calculated genocidal attack and THAT DEMANDS IMMEDIATE ANSWER. RU has been humiliated several times at the economic and political level now they are doing so in Sports. Enough is enough, is time to respond! ]]
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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A President Held Hostage  By Justin Raimondo
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How to be sure that money won’t be used for more wars.. to profit Milit-Indust-Comp?
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Who is attacking the US?.. or in reverse: Is the US the attacker of world PEACE & Amer life ?
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COUNTER PUNCH 

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..


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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 


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Econ      -El espectro del “krach” bursátil  Henri Wilno
                -Supermercados   Despidos y cierre de locales  Mario Hernandez
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Ecol        -El consumo de la felicidad  Charo Morán
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ALC        -Cuba y Venezuela: tendencias y cambios (I)  Guillermo Almeyra
                -Rasgos de una fase aún indefinida en Am Latina  Luis Bilbao
                -Perú:   ¡Tarjeta roja, para Donald Trump…!  Gustavo Espinoza
                -Argentina: Los cuatro macrismos  Flor Niti
                -Arg:  La unidad es necesaria pero no suficiente  Ezequiel Beer
                -BRA      -Brasil, la excepción y la regla  Lindbergh Farías
                -BRA      - Lula nació condenado  Emir Sader
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PAL        -Tropas israelíes cazan adolescentes: Como un safari  G Levy
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Mund    - Irán:  Soberanía y dignidad a 39 años del triunfo revol  Pablo Jofré
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MX         -¿Qué es el sectarismo y  que el oportunismo?  Pedro Echeverría
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Iraq        Al US no le importa:  -la conferencia sobre reconstrucción de Iraq
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Cuba      -Cuba en 3D:  Sergio, Sergéi y yo   Juan Antonio García
                - Jorge Barrera:   Acerca de la unificación cambiaria en Cuba  P M
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La ciudad donde gobiernan los gatos  [[ No es Estambul, es Pittsburgh en PA ]]
FLOPY  Cuento Corto 
Hugo Adan. Feb 12-18
En mi casa Gobierna Flopy: un gato angora negro, que no puede ingresar al palacio pues sufro Asma Pero en mi porch tiene 2 casas, una con calefacción eléctrica. El dia que muera Flopy ira al cielo. Me lo  dijo y prometió abrirme las puertas . El Dios de los gatos esta de Ado y va construyendo una casa para asmáticos en el porch de Flopy.. Le pregunte si también me darán 7 vidas. Me dijo: SI. De forma que no tengo que pasar el purgatorio ni rendir cuenta a dioses ni diablos de los “humanos”. Yo ya tengo futuro asegurado para mi 2da vida y no me preocupa si los caníbales terrestres incendian el mundo con el WW3. No tendré que mendigar a los “billos” que me den espacio en sus ‘bunkers’. Ya lo tengo:  la marmota  y su hijo –amigos de Flopy- están terminando un túnel inmenso para que yo y Flopy podamos protegernos de la guerra mundial que se avecina.
  Continuara
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


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