FEB 16
18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Economists,
but mostly traders, breathed a sigh of relief last month when US import prices
(ex petroleum) printed an unexpected 0.2% drop last month, a big miss relative
to expectations and recent gains.
See Chart:
…
See more charts at:
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/inflation-dead-ahead-core-import-prices-surge-most-6-years
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"It’s
a wake-up call that central banks are withdrawing liquidity, and that the
process is not going to be smooth" Morgan Stanley strategists wrote.
See Chart:
…
See more charts at:
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U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower
open after the dollar staged a surprising spike following today's economic
data, coupled with what short covering across the dollar complex.
See Chart:
The
early spike in the dollar has hit resistance and is rolling over...
See Chart: Bloomberg Dollar Index at:
….
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UMich consumer confidence surged more than expected in
February's preliminary data, as stock market gyrations were dominated by rising incomes, employment
growth, and by net favorable perceptions of the tax reforms.
See Chart
See other charts at:
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The tragedy is so few act when the collapse is predictably inevitable, but not yet manifesting in daily life...
See Chart
Black Market exchange rate of Ven
Bolivar to USD
At the source below:
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"You could say that right now, rather than stocks rising around the world,
it is the dollar falling against almost everything" - JPMorgan Asset Management
See Chart:
…
See more Chart at;
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Very
likely, the next two quarters will be weaker than expected as the boost from
hurricanes fade and higher interest rates take their toll on consumers. So, when mainstream media acts astonished
that economic growth has once again slowed, you will
already know why...
If economic destruction led to
long-term economic prosperity, then the U.S. should just regularly drop a nuke
on a major city and then rebuild it. When
you think about it in those terms, you realize just how silly the whole notion
is.
However,
in the short-term, natural disasters do “pull forward” consumption
as individuals need to rebuild and replace what was previously lost. This activity does lead to a
short-term boost in the economic data, but fades just as quickly.
A quick look at core retail sales over the last few months,
following the hurricanes, shows the temporary bump now fading.
The other interesting aspect of this is the rise in consumer
credit as a percent of disposable personal income. The chart below indexes both
consumer credit to DPI and retail sales to 100 starting in 1993. What is
interesting to note is the rising level of credit card debt required to sustain
retail sales.
Given that
retail sales make up roughly 40% of personal consumption expenditures which in
turn comprises roughly 70% of GDP, the impact to sustained economic growth is
important to consider.
Importantly,
the latest CPI, inflation, report showed a strong rise that was directly
attributable to rising rent, health care, and oil prices. Even the previous increases in retail sales
were primarily comprised of gasoline, which directly impacts consumers ability
to spend money on other stuff, and building products from rebuilding
efforts.
Importantly, what the headlines miss is the growth in the population.
The chart below shows retails sales divided by those actually counted as part
of the labor force. (You’ve got to have a job to buy stuff,
right?)
The next chart below
shows the annual % change of retail sales per labor
force participant. The trend has been weakening since the beginning of
2017 and shows little sign of increasing currently.
While tax cuts may
provide a temporary boost to after-tax incomes, that income will simply be
absorbed by higher energy, gasoline, health care and borrowing costs. This is why 80% of Americans continue to live
paycheck-to-paycheck and have little saved in the bank. It is also why, as
wages have continued to stagnate, that the cost of living now exceeds what
incomes and debt increases can sustain.
Yes,
corporations will do well under the “tax reform” plan. Already compensation for the top 20% of income
earners are seeing wages rise, while corporations have doubled their planned
stock “buybacks” to boost earnings per share. But such does
not increase the take-home pay for the bottom 80% of the population that
drives the majority of economic growth long-term.
Very
likely, the next two quarters will be weaker than expected as the boost from
hurricanes fade and higher interest rates take their toll on consumers. So, when mainstream media acts
astonished that economic growth has once again slowed, you will already know
why.
HERE IS YOUR WEEKEND
READING LIST.
Economy
& Fed
- All Eyes Turn To Jerome Powell by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
- Trumps New Dark Money Man Takes Over by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning
- Yellen’s Success At Fed Confirms Irrelevance by John Tamny via Forbes
- How Long Before Trump Turns On Powell by Bess Levin via Hive
- 2017-18 Economic Recovery Mocks “New Normal” by Peter Ferrara via Washington Times
- Soon To Pivot From Cheering Economy To Fearing Debt by Shawn Tully via Fortune
- Rules-Based Monetary Proposals Won’t Solve Problem by Nathan Lewis via Forbes
- Crumbling Infrastructure Is A Myth by John Merline via IBD
- Infrastructure Spending Won’t Transform America by George Will via IBD
- Real Correction Will Spring From Deficit by Kevin Williamson via National Review
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Markets
- 5-Reasons Not To Panic by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- How Trillions In Risk Parity Trades Could Sink The Market by Simon Constable via Forbes
- Nomura: You Will Have Another Chance To Buy Low Soon by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Market Volatility & Inflation by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
- Who’s Really To Blame For The Crash by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch
- Corrections Almost Always Test Lows Before Complete by Bryce Coward via Knowledge Leaders
- Interest Rates Pessimistic About Growth by Matthew C. Klein via FT
- The Rate Puzzle Is Coming Together by Sven Henrich via Northman Trader
- Stock Market Was Overdue For Fall by Jeff Sommer via NYT
- History Suggests Correction Isn’t Over by Ryan Vlastelica via MarketWatch
- Identifying A Market Bottom by Michael Brush via MarketWatch
- Don’t Freak Out by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- 3-Ways This Correction Can Play Out by Jesse Colombo via RIA
- Be Smarter Than Harvard by John Coumarianos vis RIA
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Research /
Interesting Reads
- Record Short Treasury Bets Begs Reversion by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- It’s Hard To Predict How You’ll Respond To Risk by Collaborative Fund
- A New Mental Model For Investing by Microcap Club
- How A Bear Market Starts by Macromon via Global Macro Monitor
- We’ve Not Been Here Before by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
- Volatility Speculators Storm Back In by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- Gold Fireworks On The Horizon by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
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"AMERICA’S FAVORITE INVESTOR LOVES MONOPOLY, NOT FREE MARKETS..."
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
Special Counsel Mueller has indicted 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian
entities, accusing them of "defeating the
lawful functions of the government through fraud for the purpose of interfering
with the U.S. political and electoral processes" and operating
fake social media accounts.
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"What’s important to recognize is that,
no matter how impressive the doorman may be, he is just that. He is only the
front man, and he is disposable...The Deep State runs
the show. Their presence is permanent and their agenda is both ongoing
and impervious to the whims of the voting public."
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"The article uses messages
from late Oct 2016 when I infamously had no internet access ...
basic fact-checking would have shown this..."
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"Americans like to think of their country as
different from those run by military regimes. They are only fooling themselves..."
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WORLD
ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
In accordance with an energy cooperation framework agreement
signed in late January, Russia will have exclusive
rights to produce oil and gas in Syria.
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
US politics crisis: Trump
captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
Trump
Blames Mental Illness for Parkland Shooting, Ignores Easy Gun Access &
Loose Background Checks
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White
Supremacy, Patriarchy and Guns: FL Shooter Had Record of Death Threats,
Violence Against Women
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars:
its profiteers US-NATO
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
Will the
Israeli-Iranian Showdown Be in Syria — or New York? By Trita Parsi
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Trump’s Syria Policy:
Perpetual War Without Debate By James Carden
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Taliban Try's to Talk
Peace to U.S. Audience in New Letter By The Islamic Emirate of Afgh
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty
business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
RELATED:
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for
alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire:
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Pentagono
busca unir las 2 pestes polit -DEMs y Reps- para el plan WW3
Mejor les irÃa si unen grandes financistas que
huyen hacia China.
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Bla, Bla.. Por que no los sacan ahora que
Israel declaro guerra a Syria
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Brasil anuncia los 15 futbolistas
fijos que irán al Mundial de Rusia 2018 : Alisson, Marcelo, Miranda, Marquinhos, D-Alves,
Paulinho, Renato- A , Casemiro, Neymar, Coutinho y Gabriel Jesus
". En Espera: Thiago-Silva,
Roberto Firmino, Fernandinho del Manchester City, y Willian del Chelsea. Todos juraron que les devolverán la catana a los alemanes. Esta
vez vamos por la sexta Copa Mundial, dijeron.
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El Noruego que dejo chico al USAno
Nicolas Cruz: El terrorista noruego Anders Breivik
se arrepiente de haber asesinado a 77 personas.
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PRESS
TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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