FEB 13 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
Press the blue
- GOP’s Silence on Deficits Under Trump Marks Turnabout (BBG)
- Investors start looking abroad (Reuters)
- Cold War Rivals Risk Direct Conflict in Syria (BBG)
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"...there is no doubt that all this recent volatility selling of the past few years has attracted too
much capital that is ill-equipped to simply weathering the drawdowns... Until exposure expires, they will be forced
to chase around the markets..."
See chart:
Why did
we rip higher Friday? UNPREDICTABLE VOLATILITY makes the Economy very scarry
Friday morning’s stock market action
was ugly. Spooz were offered, and broke all sorts of support in a sickening
swoon. Yet just as things looked as if they were about
to cascade to the downside, a face ripping rally
rocketed the S&P 500 higher, finishing up on the day.
See chart:
By now everyone is familiar with the
XIV fiasco (One of the Greatest Squeezes of All Time?),
but even though that short volatility exposure has disappeared with the collapse of XIV and other ETNs, there are many more short volatility strategies that still have
exposure.
As the market zips around,
to determine what the effect will be on the market, it’s important to
understand who is long with volatility and who is short. For every option trade, there is a buyer and seller.
Their reactions will differ based on their timeframe and
risk tolerance.
But there is no doubt that all this recent
volatility selling of the past few years has attracted too much capital that is
ill-equipped to simply weathering the drawdowns.
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[[ Is working to whom? To big
Comp who wants to sell their crumps at banana price.. or to those who buy it
until there is nothing to sell. This is a nutshell type
of bankruptcy: more noise-more empty & useless ]]
...the x-factor here is the damaged
psyche of a market that sees its conditioned “buy the dip” muscle-memory
getting burnt TWICE in a short period of time (ESPECIALLY late-comer retail investors)..
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Economics at world level with focus on US
“The instinctive inclination to
‘buy-the-dip’ may be strong... this may not work so well... [actions of]
the past week could continue for some
time."
Seeds were being
sown for "a particularly vicious correction," Flamand said in
a January
commentary before the market rout.
See chart:
At the time, he said the market appeared to be moving into
the fifth stage of Ralph Nelson Elliott’s wave model of technical analysis of
market trends, in which everyone stands firmly behind
the positive news.
See chart:
“The current period of stability has overtaken 1965, and only once since
1920-1995 has the market enjoyed a longer run without a 5 percent fall,” –FDR rule- he wrote in
the commentary.
“While the fifth wave can last for
weeks, months or even years, it inevitably precludes a
significant market correction, on average giving up between
38 percent and 50 percent of all gains.”
Now that would be a dip some might
consider buying?
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The historic plunge in interbank lending is both sudden and dramatic. What's going on? A number
of things that have happened recently that can be considered straws, but the combined effect is more like a
brick...
Interbank
lending took a historic dive.
See chart:
Excess
Reserves
See chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180213_mish5.jpg?itok=uoUw91R9
Readers ask "What's
happening?" Let's investigate.
Interbank
Lending Long Term
See chart
So the Fed held off, and off, and
off. Until now.
Rate
Hikes vs. Balance Sheets
See chart
A Straw
or a Brick?
A number of things that have happened recently that can be considered straws, but the combined effect is more
like a brick.
- Increasing number of rate hikes and rate hike expectations
- Balance sheet tapering, which is an effective rate hike.
- Repatriation of tax dollars puts upward pressure on rates.
- Mortgage rates are at 4-year highs. This will pressure housing.
- Money supply growth is decelerating.
- Trump tax cuts add to the deficit.
Economic
Growth Will Hit Brick Wall
Those who believe the economy is about to lift off have it
ass backward. The economy is on its final legs. The
kicker to this mess is hedge funds and small speculators are record short
treasury futures.
Just as record numbers of people bought into stocks in
December and January, a record number of people have
been shorting treasuries expecting an economic lift-off that is far away
in the rear-view mirror.
THE NEXT BIG MOVE IN INTEREST RATES IS DOWN.
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"What we find interesting about this market correction (so far) is
the lack of individual names that have
taken it on the chin..."
As we can see in chart 1, the average stock’s decline from
its 65-day high was just 11% as of Friday the 9th. All previous significant market declines have been accompanied by this
indicator pushing closer to the 15-20% level.
See chart:
Finally, most stocks (54%) are still
trading at a higher level that they were just 65 days ago. During past corrections, only 5-25% of stocks
had posted 65-day price increases.
See Chart:
….
Source:
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Our client
found a flaw that allows traders “with sophisticated algorithms to move the VIX up or
down by simply posting quotes on S&P options and without needing to
physically engage in any trading or deploying any capital.”
We first exposed the "conspiracy fact"
that VIX manipulation runs the entire market back in 2015 as the ubiquitous VIX-crushing algo-runs coincided
with a non-stop shorting of VIX futures by a seemingly bottomless-pocketed
player in the market... which happened to coincide with the arrival of Simon
Potter as the head of The New York Fed's trading desk...
See Chart:
Two
University of Texas at Austin finance professors
found "large transient
deviations in VIX prices" around the morning auction, "consistent with market
manipulation."
See chart:
While this was immediately played down by CBOE, and the
subject quickly disappeared from the headlines - because VIX was dropping
incessantly and stocks were going up, up, up - until VIX flash-crashed rather awkwardly into
the morning auction settlement in mid-December, bring the chatter of
manipulation back to life...
Bloomberg data show that of the 10 biggest gaps between the VIX
settlement value and its closing level the night before, five came in 2017,
including December’s, which was the
biggest discount in 11 years
See Chart:
The question is - why did the whistleblower come forward now - a week
after the total and utter collapse of XIV and the short-VIX debacle?
See chart:
Blame-scaping VIX manipulation for
'volocaust' but remaining silent during years of VIX-monkey-hammering sounds
more like 'bad-losers' - no matter how much we believe in the manipulation of
this 'tail' that inevitably wags the entire market 'dog'.
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"Virtually no investor studies history and the few who do always think it is different today. The most important lesson is that people
never learn...But history has time and
time again turned hubristic
know-it-alls into humbled has-beens."
See chart:
MAJOR CURRENCIES AGAINST GOLD ..
while silver price is almost zero
See chart:
Investors must not
be influenced by short term fluctuations in the gold and silver price. Without warning gold will one day start moving up 100s of
dollars and silver 10s of dollars over a very short period. Gold and
silver must be acquired today at current low prices. When
the real move starts, it will be impossible to get hold of physical gold and
silver at any price.
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Exposing ETF-Induced Market Socialism [[ Intentional distortion de socialism or mera ignorancia
]]
ETF
(exchange-trade-funds) es el típico fraude
del capitalism en crisis. El capitalist grande empaqueta lo que no puede vender
honestamente en mercado (ponen en una bolsa productos fallados o de baja
calidad junto a productos casi buenos) los vende a un especulador mediano o
pequenio y este se encarga de la re-venta
en el mercado directo. Quien compra el paquete ETF tiene que venderlo,
no puede regresarlo. Esa es la dinámica de los ETF: da vida al gran capital que
esta a punto de quebrar pero no al especulador mediano ni al consumidor directo
que son los que corren el riego. Que tiene que ver eso con el socialism?. Nada.
Absolutamente nada. China pone cada año en la cárcel a miles de especuladores
que venden este fraude. RU los envía a la Siberia. No se puede negar que este
tipo de fraude existe allí, pero es ilegal. La Pharma vende medicina tipo
“Brand” y permite se use el mismo nombre
para el equivalente “genérico”, la 1ra es para los que tienen dinero y la otra
para los pobres. Este tipo de fraudes y los ETF estan legalmente permitidos en
Amer. Aquí no existen Millonar hones]]
….
"...the indexation trend
ultimately amounts to a form of investor socialism... as more and more money flows into products mirroring the same
index, such as the S&P500, everybody
is buying the same stocks [with the market at
all-time high valuations before last week's correction]... This is why socialism makes no more sense in
investing than in real life."
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
EVENTUALLY, HOWEVER, ALL MILITARY EMPIRES FAIL...
Liars are blaming themselves .. Who cares? .. Read cartoons
instead.
"Some of those in attendance came away with the impression that Flynn would not be charged with a
crime pertaining to the January 24 interview..."
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What is the business of verifying emigrants? Besides
expropriat money after planting drug on them. Fear of terrorism from unknown sources if WW3
start? They’re not terr.. theyr’re
survivor of US Econ terrsm in Central America.. they work hurt to pay the
coyotes & here work in low p-jobs refus by Am
"History shows that
mandatory E-Verify’s use will expand beyond immigration enforcement and
could be used as a tool of political
repression..."
[ no paying taxes & poltical repression:
irrelevant excuse.. T paranoia schizof: insufic argumt]
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"It
means, that there is a criminal investigation underway and release of some of
the information in the memo by Mr. Schiff will affect that criminal
investigation."
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"... laws dictating what
type of speech is, and is not, acceptable are not designed to fix the
problem... They are designed to divide
the people and amplify the problems..."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Why? Because the Asian China is expanding influence in
Asia.. What stupid argument!
The
Pentagon is considering plans to transfer heavily armed, versatile Marine Corps
Expeditionary Units (MEU) to East-Asia,
citing the rapidly expanding Chinese influence in the region.
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US
Bombing Itself? YES..is exactly that
will do if bombing N-Korea
“… if North Korea seems like a threat, imagine how the rest of the world feels while watching one country
violently take on the rest of the planet single-handedly, leaving
nothing but destruction in its wake and promising nothing less than a nuclear
holocaust in the years to come.”
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IS THE DEAD
CAT BOUNCE OVER?
While there
has been no specific driver, USD weakness for the third day in a row, and a
consequent selloff in USD/JPY - which tumbled shortly before midnight ET - was
the main focus in European session.
See chart: The Bloomberg
dollar index fall
Pressured by the weaker dollar and
sliding European stocks, S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop for U.S. stocks
at the market open after two days of gains.
See chart:
Bulletin
headline summary from Ransquawk
- European equities lower across the board after a mixed session overnight which saw the Nikkei 225 (-0.7%)
- hampered by the firmer JPY
- In FX markets, USD softer against its peers. GBP firmer as UK inflation exceeds expectations (3.0% Y/Y vs. Exp. 2.9%)
- Looking ahead, highlights include APIs, Japanese GDP and Fed’s Mester
MARKET
SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to
2,638.25
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 89.84
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $62.35/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,328.85
Top
Overnight News
- The People’s Bank of China appointed JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. as a yuan clearing bank in the U.S., the first non-Chinese lender for such a role globally and a further step to promote international use of the currency
- A whistle-blower told U.S. regulators that a scheme to manipulate the VIX, the volatility gauge thrust into the spotlight last week during a wild trading session, costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month
- OPEC and its allies have almost achieved their goal of clearing an oil glut, but their efforts could be derailed by rising supplies from the U.S. and other rivals, the International Energy Agency said
- South Africans awoke to find their nation in limbo after President Jacob Zuma’s refusal to obey his ruling African National Congress’s request to resign voluntarily prompted its top leadership to order his removal from office
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voter) speaks; she holds a hawkish approach, looks for three hikes this year
In short:
In Asia, stocks traded mostly higher as the region
cheered the continued rebound in the US, where all
majors finished with firm gains and the
S&P 500 posted its best 2-day performance in over 2 years.
..
European
equities this morning opened on the back foot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%)
compared to the positive trading session in Asia (ex-Japan) and the US.
..
In
currencies, Yen strength is the
main overnight and early European theme, as Usd/Jpy breached last Friday’s
108.05 low to the downside before overcoming barrier and psychological support
at 108.00 on its way to fresh 5 month lows around 107.55.
..
In
commodities, the theme continues for the
oil markets, more supply is set to come from US shale producers. A report from
the EIA yesterday noted that shale production for crude is to rise by 100k bbls
in March, while another report this morning from the IEA expects US supply to
grow more than demand in 2018, with US seen topping Russian production at
year-end; as such both WTI and Brent have been pressured throughout the morning
with the former briefly slipping below USD 59.00bbl. In metals markets, gold
prices are near one-week highs amid the softer USD which has dictated a bulk of
the price action for precious metals.
Looking ahead, the January
CPI/PPI/RPI report in the UK is the main focus. In the US, the January NFIB
small business optimism print will be released. Away from data, the Fed’s
Mester is due to speak in the afternoon on monetary policy and the economic
outlook. Pepsico will release earnings.
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-13/futures-slide-global-equity-rally-fizzles-hit-soaring-yen
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"Taking
a step back, the situation remains bearish overall. High U.S. rates, elevated
volatility across assets and wealth destruction all point to further equity
deleveraging."
Taking a step back,
the situation remains bearish overall. High U.S. rates,
elevated volatility across assets and wealth destruction all point to further
equity deleveraging.
Everyone is understandably looking to U.S. CPI as the next
major catalyst. It could be argued that that event is
skewed to be an equity negative either way.
If there’s high inflation, then yields might rise again, further
squeezing liquidity and financial conditions. A low print -- and it would
appear markets have got way too far ahead of themselves in pricing rising
inflation -- and more wealth destruction will come through a squeeze of the
large short positions in Treasuries.
WE’RE NOW IN A WORLD OF HIGHER
VOLATILITY. Register that fact and don’t let the increased noise
distract and mislead you.
…
READ more..
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-13/trader-dead-cat-bounce-ending-situation-remains-bearish
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The latest
Chinese new loan data helps explain the recent inflationary burst, because
according to the PBOC, in January China
created a record CNY2900 billion in new loans ($458.3 billion), almost 1
trillion yuan above the CNY2000 expected.
SEE CHART:
According to Reuters, the credit
boom has been fueled "by strong economic growth, a robust property market
and a crackdown on riskier shadow lending, which has forced banks to shift some
loans back onto their balance sheets." But mostly it has been forced by an implicit demand on Beijing to keep the global
reflationary impulse strong at a time when the Fed is shrinking its balance
sheet - a highly deflationary, if only for circulating monetary aggregates,
exercise.
Outstanding yuan loans grew 13.2% in
January from a year earlier, also faster than an expected 12.5% rise and
compared with an increase of 12.7% in December.
See chart:
…
READ more at this source:
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-12/china-creates-record-29-trillion-new-loans-one-month
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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Dangerous Delusions: Syria Isn’t Going to
Liberate Palestine Anytime Soon nor Is Russia Turning Against “Israel” By Andrew Korybko,
[[ Regarding RU-Israel: Reality
change & coalitions too in geo-politics, even faster here. Neither RU nor
Israel can call themselves “allies” in war. If Andrew
Korybko believe so, is his self-delusion. The FACT is that RU
best ally in the M-East is Iran & Syria (the worse enemies of
Israel). The attack of Israel to such coalition was stupidly calculated by
some of US-Penta false “strategist” in
the current war against RU-China. Israel is a pawn moved
two spaces forward to one of the extremes of the geo-political chess-board. It
can be wiped out easily without affecting current correlation of forces. US
& RU will continue playing the master game and no one will defy the law of
MAD (mutual assured destruction) because one pawn is lost in the chess-board.
Iran already said clearly –with image os missiles- that they won’t tolerate one
more of these stupid moves from Israel. ]]
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Do Financial Markets Still Exist? By Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dave
Kranzler, and Prof Michael Hudson,
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
The FBI and the President – Mutual
Manipulation By James Petras
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COUNTER PUNCH
William Kaufman A
Stock Market Primer, in Six Easy Steps
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Cesar
Chelala A
Mother’s Lesson on Peace
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
[[
Es un abuso increíble el que se comete contra Assange. La libertad de expresión está en el ojo de mira
del arma asesina del Imperio. Debemos recolectar firmas a nivel mundial por su
libertad y señalar un dia para la marcha mundial por la libertad de Prensa. Gracias a él pudimos ver lo que hay detrás de los false
flags en la dinámica imperial de nuestro días. Que hay de falso en lo
que el dijo? NADA. Si lo llevan a una Corte
mundial neutral.. el lo puede probar. Lo que nosotros
debemos hacer –ademas de pedir su Libertad y respeto a la libertad de Prensa - es
pedir se abra juicio al US por recientes crímenes de guerra y crímenes de Lesa Humanidad. Pedir que se
abra un nuevo TRIBUNAL como el de NUREMBERG para
que dictamine sobre esos crímenes. Estoy seguro de que
varias Cortes del Mundo están dispuestas a implementar esa iniciativa.]]
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RELATED 1: London Court Upholds Assange's Arrest Warrant https://sputniknews.com/europe/201802131061621557-assange-arrest-warrant-london-court/
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RELATED 2:
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Palestine Foreign
Minister Riyad Maliki told Sputnik in an interview
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RT SHOWS
Keiser Report
Episode
1188 Max and Stacy discuss ‘unreal’
inflows into ETFs and the highly dubious GDPNow estimates forecasting a
Reagan-era-like boom.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
Que entren los otros payasos [[ Este Circo aburre.. No bastan T &
T? ]]
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Econ Ent a David Harvey: “Vivimos el mundo de la esclavitud de la deuda”
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El grupo
más cruel del EI enciende una disputa diplomática terrorismo y diplomacia: imposible
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Keiser Report Criptodivisas:
la batalla por la libertad del ser humano
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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Quieren
jugar con fuego sabiendo que van a ser quemados: Es de
idiotas
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