FEB 1 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
ECONOMIC DEBACLE CAN’T BE DENIED ANY LONGER:
1-
Everything's getting hammered...
See chart:
As Treasury yields push to new cycle
highs (10Y 2.76 and 30Y above 3.00%), it appears
US equities' post-open panic-buying has disappeared and stocks have sunk back
into the red for the day...
See Chart:
Another v-shape recovery fades
See chart:
What is the catalyst for Gundlach? As he explained, one
"needs to see the 30Y at 2.99% or above for the trendline to break."
See chart:
And it just did...
See chart:
And the
Dollar is getting hammered...
See chart:
But, with AAPL, AMZN, and
GOOG reporting tonight, it's anyone's guess where we
open tomorrow.
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It's not just 'Murica where bonds and stocks
are falling together. As German 10Y Yields spike to their highest
since September 2015, so the DAX has just broken down
below its 50-day moving average...
The exuberant Nasdaq has given up
the Friday melt-up gains...
SEE chart:
While bond yields are fading modestly as this stock drop accelerates,
we note that breakevens have broken key
levels and may be spooking stocks...
See chart:
...
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3-
For the
first time since Q1 2016, US Worker Productivity declined in Q4 2017, after accelerating for three straight quarters.
See chart:
Incoming Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that
labor-force participation and productivity gains are key to lifting the
sustainable rate of expansion in the world’s largest economy. Without a boost in productivity, President Donald Trump may find
it difficult for growth to meet his 3 percent goal.
A
modest silver-lining shows that among manufacturers, productivity rose at a 5.7% pace in the fourth
quarter, most since 2010, rebounding from a 4.9% decline in the
prior quarter. Productivity in sector was up 1.1% from year earlier.
However, adjusted for
inflation, HOURLY EARNINGS FELL AT A 1.8 PERCENT ANNUALIZED
PACE AFTER A 0.6 PERCENT INCREASE.
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One more view on HOW THE CURRENT FAKE ECONOMY WORKS :
"This cessation of
"leakage" of new moneycoupled with extreme lows in savings, extreme valuations
in asset values vis-à-vis
disposable incomes, and decelerating deficits with rising interest rates does not likely
add up to a positive outlook."
See chart:
the same
variables in chart below, focused on '08 until '18. The jogs in the monetization subsequently
followed by the Wilshire are probably noteworthy...but
the most recent decline in available monetization hasn't materialized in the
Wilshire...at least not yet.
See chart:
The chart below shows the Federal
Reserve balance sheet (red line) and the quantity of those newly created
dollars that the recipients of those dollars, the banks, deposited at the
Federal Reserve (blue line). But the green line is the quantity of newly
created dollars that have "leaked" out...also known as
"monetized".
SEE Chart:
What is so interesting is the
interplay of QE and excess reserves...resulting in the peak QE impact
taking effect long after QE was tapered and had ceased. The
trillions in assets remaining with the Fed, but the new cash went looking.
See Chart:
However, that change since 2017 should begin to affect
the market in 2018. The change in flow from
the declining Federal Reserve balance sheet coupled with fast rising interest
payments on Excess Reserves (billions for the banks for not taking any
risk, not making any loans to keep the cash locked away) should help to hold the Excess Reserves from declining any faster
than the Fed's balance sheet reduction.
See chart:
...
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If past history helps,
here it is:
Here is the
visual breakdown of January returns in local currency, and USD terms
See charts:
…
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US Manufacturing, according
to Markit, is at its strongest since March 2015 (as Services hits a 9-mo low) helped by strong
new orders and output. However, according
to PMI, Manufacturing slipped to 59.1 with a tumble in
New Orders.
SEE chart:
Not exactly what PMI suggested...
See chart:
But still, for ISM, there was just
one negative respondent out of nine...
- "Slow start to 2018; pricing on metals is heading up and quotes/orders are picking up as well." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Overall, business remains steady. With several key programs to begin ramping up in the industry, outlook looks good for calendar year 2018." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Employment is very tight in our area." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Business continues to strengthen." (Paper Products)
- "Business is starting the new year strong. Consumer confidence seems to be driving a lot of our customers’ order requirements higher." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
….
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More from the past: Albert
Edwards: "It Feels Similar To Just Before The 1987 crash"
"this mini-tremor actually
felt like an earthquake. But maybe this is the start of something more... the current
conjuncture feels similar to just before the 1987 equity crash."
SEE chart
however, he cautions that "this
might not be so wise (see right-hand chart below):
See chart
Why? Because, quoting Stephanie Pomboy and showing our chart
from yesterday, Edwards points that according to the MacroMavens economist,
"stock prices are now be the
biggest threat to the economy – even more than the Fed. Heaven forbid the
market ever goes down”. (The latest monthly reading just out shows a
further surge above previous peaks – see
right-hand chart below.)
SEE Chart:
Edwards then points out something else we showed
on Monday: all the spending growth is thanks to a plunge in US personal
savings:
US consumer
spending growth is running way above growth in real average hourly (or weekly)
earnings (see below). This gap is
sustained by a slumping savings ratio, not jobs growth.
See chart:
…
Nice debate. Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-01/albert-edwards-it-feels-similar-just-1987-crash
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
"Congressman Nunes'
deliberately dishonest actions make him unfit to serve as Chairman, and he must
be removedimmediately from this position...The integrity of
the House is at stake. We
look forward to your immediate action on this subject."
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Minutes
after Pelosi's tantrum, Bloomberg reports that The White House plans to sign off on the memo's release today and
send it back to Congress. The
release is likely to come Friday morning, Fox
News is told.
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
THERE IS NOT SUCH Bitcoin: Another Nail in Gold’s Coffin
BIT COIN AND GOLD HAVE PLENTY OF LIFE
READ the end of this analysis :
Bitcoin is
now down 50% from its record highs in mid-December, plunging to an $8000 handle
this morning following headlines from India (which
appear to have been misunderstood)...
See chart:
While all cryptos are tumbling today, we note that Bitcoin
is down 36% YTD and Ethereum is up 38% YTD...
See chart:
And finally, one more
reminder, while Bitcoin's drop is large, IT FITS THE
SEASONAL NORM...
See chart:
...
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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Peru: “We
Are Ready to Kill”: Threats Against the
Shipibo Community of Peru’s Amazon Intensify Following Court Order Against Palm
Oil Company By Tom Younger
La Palma aceitera fue siempre el pretexto para tráfico de drogas y
otros negocios ilícitos. La DEA fue acusada de complicid en ello. Un avión de
Guerra del US fue derribado por un Sukoi peruano cuando salió del Huallga
cargado d cocai. El Senador Helms exigió sanción a Perú. Cuando se publicó fotos del delito.. archivaron
el caso en el US. Los Romero (señoritos de la lumpen-burguesía Per) se
encargaron de ocultar el tema en Pren-Pe. Este es el tipo de gente que expropio
tierras a Nativos Amazonicos. Sus crímenes quedaron impunes pero se pueden re-abrir. Esta
vez la Nation ya no tolera estos abusos.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
US - War Dog Wants to Bite, But What and How? By Andre Vltchek
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Tillerson Lays the Ground for Endless War in
Syria By Charles V. Peña
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Free Speech Victory: Federal Court Strikes
Down a Law that Punishes Supporters of Israel Boycott
By Glenn Greenwald
By Glenn Greenwald
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Demystifying US and Israeli Power By Susan Cain and Mark Mason
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
RELATED:
Tillerson is going to visit
Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Jamaica.
Imperial Plan: capturing Venezuelan
oil, with the support of countries above.
Ven is forced to request RU-Chi
support. Latino fight for sovereignty is at stake
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RELATED:
…
‘Talking These Guys Up a Lot More Than They
Deserve’: US Officials Say North Korean Threat Overblown
…
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What's
Driving the US Effort to Modernize Its Nuclear Arsenal deter aggressors?
Who is the aggresor?
President Trump stressed that the US
must create a nuclear arsenal "so strong and powerful that it will deter
any acts of aggression," including from US "rivals" China and
Russia
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser
Report Episode 1183
Max and Stacy discuss Europe’s ‘Plan B’ to offer derivatives in
sovereign bonds. 2ND part:
Max interviews Harry Yeh, managing partner at Binary Financial
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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Chile Paola
Melita Tierra y Territ: “A la machi
Linconao la están matando
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Keiser
Report Europa tiene un plan…
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
Trump’s SOTU – declaration of military aggression against Russia, Iran, China
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WATCH:
Amazing benefits of dates Dates are
a good source of various vitamins and minerals, energy, sugar, and fiber. It
also contains calcium, iron, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium and zinc.
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