jueves, 1 de febrero de 2018

FEB 1 18 SIT EC y POL



FEB 1 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


ECONOMIC DEBACLE CAN’T BE DENIED ANY LONGER:
1-

Everything's getting hammered...
See chart:

As Treasury yields push to new cycle highs (10Y 2.76 and 30Y above 3.00%), it appears US equities' post-open panic-buying has disappeared and stocks have sunk back into the red for the day...
See Chart:

Another v-shape recovery fades
See chart:

What is the catalyst for Gundlach? As he explained, one "needs to see the 30Y at 2.99% or above for the trendline to break."
See chart:

And it just did...
See chart:

And the Dollar is getting hammered...
See chart:

But, with AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG reporting tonight, it's anyone's guess where we open tomorrow.
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2-

It's not just 'Murica where bonds and stocks are falling together. As German 10Y Yields spike to their highest since September 2015, so the DAX has just broken down below its 50-day moving average...
The exuberant Nasdaq has given up the Friday melt-up gains...
SEE chart:

While bond yields are fading modestly as this stock drop accelerates, we note that breakevens have broken key levels and may be spooking stocks...
See chart:
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3-

For the first time since Q1 2016, US Worker Productivity declined in Q4 2017, after accelerating for three straight quarters.
See chart:

Incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that labor-force participation and productivity gains are key to lifting the sustainable rate of expansion in the world’s largest economy. Without a boost in productivity, President Donald Trump may find it difficult for growth to meet his 3 percent goal.

A modest silver-lining shows that among manufacturers, productivity rose at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter, most since 2010, rebounding from a 4.9% decline in the prior quarter. Productivity in sector was up 1.1% from year earlier.
However, adjusted for inflation, HOURLY EARNINGS FELL AT A 1.8 PERCENT ANNUALIZED PACE AFTER A 0.6 PERCENT INCREASE.
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One more view on HOW THE CURRENT FAKE ECONOMY WORKS :

"This cessation of "leakage" of new moneycoupled with extreme lows in savings, extreme valuations in asset values vis-à-vis disposable incomes, and decelerating deficits with rising interest rates does not likely add up to a positive outlook."
See chart:

the same variables in chart below, focused on '08 until '18.  The jogs in the monetization subsequently followed by the Wilshire are probably noteworthy...but the most recent decline in available monetization hasn't materialized in the Wilshire...at least not yet.
See chart:

The chart below shows the Federal Reserve balance sheet (red line) and the quantity of those newly created dollars that the recipients of those dollars, the banks, deposited at the Federal Reserve (blue line).  But the green line is the quantity of newly created dollars that have "leaked" out...also known as "monetized".
SEE Chart:   

What is so interesting is the interplay of QE and excess reserves...resulting in the peak QE impact taking effect long after QE was tapered and had ceased.  The trillions in assets remaining with the Fed, but the new cash went looking.
See Chart:

However, that change since 2017 should begin to affect the market in 2018.  The change in flow from the declining Federal Reserve balance sheet coupled with fast rising interest payments on Excess Reserves (billions for the banks for not taking any risk, not making any loans to keep the cash locked away) should help to hold the Excess Reserves from declining any faster than the Fed's balance sheet reduction.
See chart:
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If past history helps,  here it is:

Here is the visual breakdown of January returns in local currency, and USD terms
See charts:
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US Manufacturing, according to Markit, is at its strongest since March 2015 (as Services hits a 9-mo low) helped by strong new orders and output. However, according to PMI, Manufacturing slipped to 59.1 with a tumble in New Orders.
SEE chart:

Not exactly what PMI suggested...
See chart:

But still, for ISM, there was just one negative respondent out of nine...

  • "Slow start to 2018; pricing on metals is heading up and quotes/orders are picking up as well." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Overall, business remains steady. With several key programs to begin ramping up in the industry, outlook looks good for calendar year 2018." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Employment is very tight in our area." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Business continues to strengthen." (Paper Products)

  • "Business is starting the new year strong. Consumer confidence seems to be driving a lot of our customers’ order requirements higher." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
….
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Description: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_small/public/2018-02/trader%201987%20teaser.jpg?itok=yEb_t6OB
"this mini-tremor actually felt like an earthquake. But maybe this is the start of something more... the current conjuncture feels similar to just before the 1987 equity crash."
SEE chart

however, he cautions that "this might not be so wise (see right-hand chart below):
See chart

Why? Because, quoting Stephanie Pomboy and showing our chart from yesterday, Edwards points that according to the MacroMavens economist, "stock prices are now be the biggest threat to the economy – even more than the Fed. Heaven forbid the market ever goes down”. (The latest monthly reading just out shows a further surge above previous peaks see right-hand chart below.)
SEE Chart:

Edwards then points out something else we showed on Monday: all the spending growth is thanks to a plunge in US personal savings:
US consumer spending growth is running way above growth in real average hourly (or weekly) earnings (see below). This gap is sustained by a slumping savings ratio, not jobs growth.
See chart:
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


"Congressman Nunes' deliberately dishonest actions make him unfit to serve as Chairman, and he must be removedimmediately from this position...The integrity of the House is at stake. We look forward to your immediate action on this subject."
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Minutes after Pelosi's tantrum, Bloomberg reports that The White House plans to sign off on the memo's release today and send it back to Congress. The release is likely to come Friday morning, Fox News is told.
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo

BIT COIN  AND GOLD HAVE PLENTY OF LIFE
READ the end of this analysis :

Bitcoin is now down 50% from its record highs in mid-December, plunging to an $8000 handle this morning following headlines from India (which appear to have been misunderstood)...
See chart:

While all cryptos are tumbling today, we note that Bitcoin is down 36% YTD and Ethereum is up 38% YTD...
See chart:

And finally, one more reminder, while Bitcoin's drop is large, IT FITS THE SEASONAL NORM...
See chart:
...
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO


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La Palma aceitera fue siempre el pretexto para tráfico de drogas y otros negocios ilícitos. La DEA fue acusada de complicid en ello. Un avión de Guerra del US fue derribado por un Sukoi peruano cuando salió del Huallga cargado d cocai. El Senador Helms exigió sanción a Perú. Cuando se publicó fotos del delito.. archivaron el caso en el US. Los Romero (señoritos de la lumpen-burguesía Per) se encargaron de ocultar el tema en Pren-Pe. Este es el tipo de gente que expropio tierras a Nativos Amazonicos. Sus crímenes  quedaron impunes pero se pueden re-abrir. Esta vez la Nation ya no tolera  estos abusos.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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Demystifying US and Israeli Power   By Susan Cain and Mark Mason
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..


RELATED:

Tillerson is going to visit Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia and Jamaica.
Imperial Plan: capturing Venezuelan oil, with the support of countries above.
Ven is forced to request RU-Chi support. Latino fight for sovereignty is at stake
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RELATED:
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What's Driving the US Effort to Modernize Its Nuclear Arsenal  deter aggressors? Who is the aggresor?
President Trump stressed that the US must create a nuclear arsenal "so strong and powerful that it will deter any acts of aggression," including from US "rivals" China and Russia
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser Report   Episode 1183  Max and Stacy discuss Europe’s ‘Plan B’ to offer derivatives in sovereign bonds.  2ND part:  Max interviews Harry Yeh, managing partner at Binary Financial
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 


USA       Conoce a la CIA: armas, drogas y dinero  J St. Clair y A  Cockburn
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Econ      -China-CELAC por beneficio mutuo  Hedelberto López
                - Concentración del capital financiero global   Rolando Astarita
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                -Una democracia virtual   Antonio José Gil Padilla
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Cuba      -Petróleo de Argelia y Rusia en auxilio de Cuba  Eso es solidaridad
                - Política económica: intento de diálogo en invierno  P Monreal
                -La lealtad constitucional no es una elección, es un deber  RF GG
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ALC        Cta Rica y Nicar:  Un tribunal, dos Estados, tres controversias  Nico  B
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VEN        -El rentismo venezolano toca fondo  Alejandro López
                - De la Cultura Comunera al Movimiento Comunero  Carlos Rivas
                - Está en marcha la fase final del asedio a Ven?   Germán Gorraiz
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USA       - Se hace pesadilla el "sueño americano"  Manuel E. Yepe
                - Qué dijo Trump sobre Cuba el 30 de enero? 
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                - PPK entre la renuncia y la vacancia  OtraMirada
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Keiser Report   Europa tiene un plan… 
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


Trump’s SOTU – declaration of military                 aggression against Russia, Iran, China
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More illiteracy in youngsters facing instability:  in countries with conflict  UNICEF
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WATCH: Amazing benefits of dates  Dates are a good source of various vitamins and minerals, energy, sugar, and fiber. It also contains calcium, iron, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium and zinc.
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