viernes, 30 de diciembre de 2016

DIC 30 16 SIT EC y POL



DIC 30 16  SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS



When we first warned 8 days ago that in the last week of trading a "Red Flag For Markets Has Emerged: Pension Funds To Sell "Near Record Amount Of Stocks In The Next Few Days", and may have to "rebalance", i.e. sell as much as $58 billion of equity to debt ahead of year end, many scoffed wondering who would be stupid enough to leave such a material capital reallocation for the last possible moment in a market that is already dangerously thin as is, and in which such a size order would be sure to move markets lower, and not just one day.

Today we got the answer, and yes - pension funds indeed left the reallocation until the last possible moment, because three days after the biggest drop in the S&P in over two months, the equity selling persisted as the reallocation trade continued, leading to the S&P closing off the year with a whimper, not a bang, as Treasurys rose, reaching session highs minutes before the 1pm ET futures close when month-end index rebalancing took effect.

 
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If 2016 taught traders anything, it was that old norms were useless and the concept of the market as a discounting mechanism (as opposed to an algo-driven headline-reacting maelstrom of manias) is lost forever. This flipping of reality is nowhere more evident in the topsy turvy shifts in risk expectations across global asset classes - where 'safe' is now riskiest and 'riskiest' is now safe.
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First, the WINNERS:
Glencore:  After losing 70% of it value in 2015, the outlook for Glencore at the start of this year couldn't have been bleaker.

Anglo American:  After posting a 2015 similar to Glencore (down ~80%), Anglo American , the world's fifth-largest diversified mining company, took drastic action in the new year as the commodity rout deepened.


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It is perhaps appropriate that in a year everyone finally admitted markets are manipulated by central banks and broken by HFT algos, that on the last trading day of 2016, the dollar flash crashed with for no reason whatsoever.
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While Warren Buffett did best of all the billionaires in 2016, he was far from alone. As Bloomberg reports, thanks to the Trump rally, the rich got a lot richer in 2016 - $237 billion richer to be exact - but the biggest fortunes on the planet whipsawed through $4.8 trillion of daily net worth gyrations in 2016.
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Following November's exuberant spike to Jan 2015 highs, December saw Chicago Purchasing Managers lose some Trumpian hope as the index slid from 57.6 to 54.6 with new orders, production, and inventories all fell. It seems the 'hard' industrial production and durable goods data was right after all and the sentiment-fueled 'soft' surveys once again over-reached, and with prices paid rising, stagflation signals are flashing.
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As we head into 2017, how should one be positioned? Let’s explore that idea with a trio of contrarian indicators...
As we head into 2017, how should one be positioned? Let’s explore that idea with a trio of contrarian indicators.
 
US Treasuries?
The one idea most widely agreed upon is that Trump will spur inflation and treasuries are the last place to be.
This headline says it all. BE WARY OF BONDS RISKS

US Equities?
The nearly always wrong Harry Dent threw in the towel on his stock market crash prediction on December 19.

Gold?
I discussed gold on December 27 in Financial Times, Barron’s Tout Death of Gold.
Here are the pertinent headlines.
End of a Golden Era

Synopsis
  1. Gold is despised
  2. Treasuries are despised
  3. Harry “wrong way” Dent is suddenly bullish
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If any of these countries do significantly increase production, then the euphoria that has yet to reach its peak may begin to fade.
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From the 24% minimum wage hike in Arizona to the 20% spike in Maine, here is a list of states where misinformed politicians will cost a lot of low-income workers their jobs in 2017.
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POLITICS


In over-reacting, governments and media play into the hands of the terrorists who want to create fear and demonstrate their strength, but whose greatest gains come when they provoke an exaggerated self-destructive response. There is a dangerous disconnect in the minds of governments and news organisations between what happens in the war in Iraq and Syria and the long-term consequences this has on the streets of Europe.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME


“Post-truth in politics is one of the drivers of populism and it is one of the threats to our democracies,” Pitruzzella told the FT. “We have reached a fork in the road: we have to choose whether to leave the internet like it is, the wild west, or whether it needs rules that appreciate the way communication has changed. I think we need to set those rules and this is the role of the public sector.”
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  • Russia Set to Expel 35 U.S. Diplomats in Tit-for-Tat (BBG)
  • Trump’s Plan to Partner With Russia Faces Bigger Hurdle (WSJ)
  • Trump could reverse effects of Obama order on Russia (Reuters)
  • Gold Lures Investors Worried About Trade Wars and Trump Tweets (BBG)
  • Syria truce backed by Russia, Turkey, holds but clashes reported (Reuters)
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DEMOCRACY NOW


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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


Israel has not just committed unspeakable acts of genocide but done so with absolute transparency
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Israel First or America First  By Patrick Buchanan
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What Is The Obama Regime Up To?   By Paul Craig Roberts
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Syria, Russia and American Desperation   By Margaret Kimberley
If it is true that Trump is a fascist, he won’t be the first one in the White House
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US Isolation   By Noam Chomsky
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The Secret Government: The Constitution in Crisis  Bill Moyer's Must Watch – Video  
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COUNTER PUNCH


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Vijay Prashad   What Israel Fears
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS


Russia Will Determine Steps in Restoring Ties with US Based on Trump's Policy    https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612301049138959-putin-russia-sanctions/

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FBI-DHS Report on Alleged Russian Hacking Does Not Even Claim to Be Accurate
https://sputniknews.com/military/201612311049155667-fbi-dhs-russia-hack-report-not-accurate/
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Obama's Anti-Russia Sanctions Aimed to 'Make Sure Trump Won't Back Off Easily'
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612311049151641-obama-trump-sanctions-russia/
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Ivory Trade in China to Be Fully Prohibited in Coming Year
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201612311049156153-china-prohibit-ivory-trade/
RELATED
Tanzanian Elephants Endangered Due to Chinese Ivory Smuggling: Watchdog
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201612311049156153-china-prohibit-ivory-trade/
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Trump Faces Difficult Relationship With China on Economic, Security Issues
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612311049156244-trum-china-economic-political-china-relationships/
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WASHINGTON BLOG


DAHBOO777’s 6-minute analysis:  VIDEO URL:  https://youtu.be/AcPND5V10Io

Whether Life for We the People is dystopian or tragic-comic, it seems .01% Orwellian actions are escalating from the 2016 jump the shark “election” (and here) to recent policies of:



  • denying Hillary Clinton’s apparent rogue State Department using the $2 billion Clinton Foundation as a “pay to play” scam (and here),


The context of these escalating actions is ongoing US rogue state empire that must conclude in one of two endgames:
  1. We the People’s recognition of the rogue state in a relative Emperor’s New Clothes moment. This would quickly end the .01% existence with arrests for the obvious crimes documented below.
  2. The .01% rogue empire ending alternative media (perhaps like this, or this), and imposing 1984 and/or Brave New World norms.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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¿Qué tan realista es la autosuficiencia china?  Immanuel Wallerstein  Como vamos por casa? Juzgas a China y no tienes idea  de su rev, ni de otras. .. Al final del ART desmientes tu realismo .. Si de verdad quieres ser abogado del diablo, empieza aquí en los EE.UU .. Con el grado de ceguera que te dieron los años .. mejor  te va si pones atención a lo más cercano .. en vez de mirar la paja en el ojo ajeno.
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[Mucho cascara para poca nuez. A partir de un caso, no es correcta esa generalización. A partir de varios casos alguien podría decir que todos los feminismos son desclasados. Eso tampoco tendría validez teórica (lógica ni científica). En ambos dos casos se parte de efectos de sistemas sociales concretos  y no todos los sistemas (y sus clases sociales) fueron ni caben en la diada patriarcalismo vs. feminismo. Ese reduccionismo no tiene valor explicativo alguno. Solo sirve para desviar atención sobre reales problemas de clase de hombres y mujeres. .. Que pérdida de tiempo y ridículo seria indagar si Micaela Bastidas o Rosa d Luxembugo fue o no feminista.]
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Jon E. Illescas desde Cuba (II) “Esperanza socialista o barbarie civilizatoria” J. Á. Téllez
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Tratados de libre comercio y alimentación   Un maridaje agridulce  Belén Fernández
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Brasil  A Temer lo abandonan sus socios  Dario Pignotti  Elecciones ya, pide el pueblo
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¿Qué se puede hacer con Israel?   Carlos Aznárez Bloquear sus empresas donde estén
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En el lejano Standing Rock está surgiendo y tomando forma la oposición popular radical contra Trump y sus compinches, la oposición popular radical que librará mañana la batalla en nombre y por cuenta de todos nosotros .. Miles de soldados se unieron a los nativos y miles más se unirán a la Rev anti-oligarquica contra banqueros y especuladores de WS, contra las grandes Corp del gas, contra las empresas  que fabrican armas y guerras fuera del país. Los ricos nos arrebataron la democracia y el pueblo les confiscara sus riquezas, antes de darles fin. El Frente Popular anti-oligárquico avanza ya.
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Keiser report 1012  Barra libre para las empresas
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PRESS TV


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Snowden and Manning request pardon from Obama
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And Iran, Russia, Syria did nothing to “stop  the plane” ..
.. cowardly or complicity .. or both?.  Are they at war?
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Tit for tat was a right policy (in MAD theory balance is the key for peace)
If Trump has a real peace policy .. diplomacy could’ve been reestablished
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US not sincere in fight against Daesh: Activist n RU not enough to destroy daesh
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US must ‘make Russians feel pain’: Bolton Bush’neocon mentality behind Trump’s team
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 Trump team rejects US sanctions on Russia.  A esto E Borges llamo “teatro del destiempo” pues parte de hechos para quemar utopías.  Aquí se parte de utopías -“la paz”- sin hechos que la confirmen, para quemar el blah-blah del  candidato Trump. A esto le llamaríamos “teatro de la auto-infamia” pues se agrega fraude a las mentiras del pasado. A diferencia  de Borges, aquí no se complota desde “El Sotano” sino desde el palacio de gobierno.
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