DIC 12 16 SIT EC
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
After exhibiting "Extreme Greed"
A down day!!!
Sentiment for the day
started off strong thanks to OPEC/NOPEC and Saudi comments sparking a buying
panic in crude to 17-month highs...
But it didn't help China... (worst stock drop in 6 months)
after Trump's questioning "One China Policy" and a crackdown on
insurers and liquidity... SEE Shanghai composite image at : http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/12/20161212_EOD1_0.jpg
See all 10 images of the economic collapse in America at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-12/extremely-greedy-traders-shocked-stocks-stumble-most-election-dollar-dumps
The lies included,
case of bond market
The bond market was never really buying the opening spike in
equity futures overnight...
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average has only been more overbought than it is today four times in the last
one hundred years...And options traders have never, ever been more bullish on the S&P 500.
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The overnight
exuberance in crude oil futures markets has faded notably as the day has
worn on. While news of supply cuts are unquestionably bullish (should
one choose to believe it or not, remember the Saudis admission "we tend to
cheat"), but the last few days have also seen a plethora of bearish-biased news that
for now is being ignored.
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January has shown a tendency since the turn of
the millennium to be an enormous “mean reversion” month — whether across assets
or intra-asset (i.e. stock factor or sector performance). RBC's Charlie
McElligott explains why.
…
Following Friday's report by RCB's Charlie McElligott which
sought to answer "THE" question every investor is asking, namely "what
could derail this rally", today's
the cross-asset strategist has released a follow up analysis in which he warns
that even though the bond battering continues - and is likely to continue
for a while - the
market is now being set up for a "massive mean-reversion"
counter-trend rally as soon as January.
His arguments why
are presented below:
Big Picture: BOND BATTERING
CONTINUES BUT SET-UP FOR JANUARY COUNTER-TREND REVERSAL
Bonds further ‘wearing it’ on multiple-fronts this morning (monster TY put block overnight, likely hedging
against MTM losses being accumulated--H/T Alex Redhead) as once again, the 5+ year rates trader playbook is torn-up with weakness
during the Asian session overnight—five points I’m highlighting:
- Crude oil is +5% (highest levels in 17 months) after further Saudi commitment to cut output following the non-OPEC states agreement this weekend to do the same. RBC’s Chief Commodities Strategist Helima Croft is calling this “OPEC’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment,” and global developed market inflation expectations are again being ‘reset’ higher;
- Front-loaded UST issuance calendar this week ahead of Fed, with 3Y and 10Y auctions Monday and 30Y on Tuesday;
- Nikkei press report that 2017 BoJ issuance will set a new record, specifically highlighting plans to issue Y3T of 40Y JGBs against a reduction of sales in the front-end / belly. Accordingly, we see JGB 2s30s and 5s30s curves making new nine-month steeps;
- Western financial press reports noting that the BoJ may have to reduce asset purchases by as much as 10% in light of the move already seen in US rates / the impact this is having on JGBs (FWIW, our Japan USD rates team is pointing out that no local press is talking about this tapering story—as such, we continue with status quo of the ‘policy divergence’ trade, as the Yen drop to new 10 month lows against the USD overnight);
- ‘Unwillingness’ to catch the falling knife from overseas real money investors (who have been “the” bid in USTs for years), voicing a preference to wait until 2017 to target ‘more attractive’ entry points for longs. This comes with domestic real money funds already being sellers as they work to shed duration. The sense is that leveraged funds will continue to press shorts on this trade which has been exceptionally profitable thus far. As such, the rates move to the upside could be magnified even further into certain illiquid year end conditions with dealer balance sheet / financing constraints.
The danger for risk assets of
course is a ‘disorderly’ rates move, as
noted in Friday’s “Big Picture” as one of the chief
concerns with regards to potential disruptors of the “reflation trade.”
Keep reading OPEN http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-12/rbc-warns-january-setting-massive-mean-revesion-month
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Last Wednesday’s order sparked a frenzy of superfast trading as other market participants piled in and a total of $3.4 billion worth of E-minis changed hands within two
seconds. Here is a "deep dive" look into what happened.
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The U.S. budget deficit soared last month,
highlighting the growing mismatch between government spending and revenues. The
government ran a $136.7 billion deficit in November, more than double that
reported one year ago. The reason for the spike: outlays rose roughly 25%
compared with November 2015, and hit an all time high of $226.5 billion for the
month of November.
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The Trumpublican voters and cheerleaders expect another Morning in
America miracle. Sorry, been there,
done that, that was then, this is now.
“Markets shrugged off the Brexit vote in a
couple of days. They shrugged off Donald Trump’s election in a single day. They
shrugged off the Italian referendum result in a couple of hours. Heck, in this mood they would shrug off an
alien invasion of planet Earth.”
— Albert Edwards, Société Générale
At this time of year,
only the hardest, coldest heart can fail to show good will to fellow man. That said, the
silvery orb of Donald Trump’s post-election honeymoon may set sooner than
expected as Ms. Yellin prepares to hoist her interest rate petard this week.
Even a modest up-bump in the Fed Funds Rate is liable to prang the orgy of
corporate share buybacks fueling the eight-year bull market that many formerly
sane observers think is a permanent feature of the human condition. The bond
market bull also seemed to last a lifetime and that’s gone south now, too.
Poor Trump’s mammoth ego has led him by the snout into a
deadfall trap. The Trumpublican
voters and cheerleaders expect another Morning in America miracle.
Sorry, been there, done that, that was then, this is now. Conditions
were quite different in 1981. For one thing, a brutal decade after the 1970
all-time US oil production peak, the Alaska North Slope fields came into full
flow, along with the North Sea and Siberian fields.
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In August of 2014, amid tapering QE and talk of normalization,
speculators in the world's most liquid money-market instruments went all-in
with record bearish bets on eurodollar futures. They were wrong and the
short-squeeze sparked a slow-motion flash-crash in bond yields (10Y from 2.65%
to 1.86% in a month). Today, as we await words, smoke,
and mirrors from Janet tomorrow, the
world's speculators are even more all-in...
POLITICS
NOT ENOUGH!
It's official... again! Donald Trump remains the winner of Wisconsin
following the statewide recount demanded by Jill Stein and paid for by sad
snowflakes. After counting
over 3 million ballots (at a cost of $3.5 million), Trump gained a net 162
votes...
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SHE BELEVIES THE OLIGARCHY HAS THE RIGH TO BE ABOVE THE LAW
“To treat her differently than others would be treated would create
and perpetuate a terrible precedent, as the American people have come to
believe that, in effect, there are two systems of justice; one for the political elite
establishment, and one for the rest of the citizens of our nation.”
[ I GUESS someone is manipulating a delusion in her crook mind:
the idea that the electoral train she derailed in the primaries .. still work. Wake up! Lady.. you can’t use
the laws you broken. ]]
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SUPPORTING WAR with RUSSIA with
stupid lies
The Hillary Clinton campaign, by way of its top political adviser John
Podesta, is supporting an effort by members of the Electoral College to request an intelligence briefing on foreign intervention in
the presidential election ahead of next Monday's Electoral College vote.
[[ RU “intervention”
in US election is just a pretext for the
war with RU, of course RU-CH won’t paid attention to
US’ press stupidities. They will focus on US-NATO-al NUSRA terrorism in the Middle East (case Syria
attack in Palmira) and the circle of nuke missiles in the borders of RU-China.
They will respond to these advances by pointing to key US & allies military
targets once and for all. They knew this threat is coming and while they
respond in Syria, they will be ready to respond at world level. All what Hillary-Obama
are doing is dividing and weakening the nation to such event. There is no way
Trump will accept to be dispossessed from their victory. Fraud is not excuse
for it: Hillary did it in the Primaries and Trump in the finals. Our system was
set for fraud & both took advantage of it.]]
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
While all the headlines have been about 10Y
Treasury yields breaking above 2.50% briefly for the first time since September
2014, the bigger news for the world of bond traders is the utter bloodbath in ultra-long duration
European bonds.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Syria: Government Liberates Aleppo - In
Revenge(?) ISIS Retakes Palmyra
By Moon Of Alabama
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The Democrats “Russia Hacking” Campaign is
Political Suicide By Mike
Whitney
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Stop the CIA Coup. The Deep State versus
Donald Trump By Justin
Raimondo
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Rogue Elements of the CIA Are Operating
Against President-elect Trump
By Paul Craig Roberts
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The human onslaught
to destroy life on Earth is unprecedented in Earth’s history
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COUNTER PUNCH
Dave Lindorff The
Fake Campaign to Blame ‘the Russians’
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Andrew Stewart Two-Step
Mccarthyism
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Dragon to the Rescue: China Moves In to Help Resolve the
Syrian Crisis
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048473835-chinese-involvement-crisis-resolution/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048473835-chinese-involvement-crisis-resolution/
RELATED
Chinese Envoy: UK ‘Poisoning’ Atmosphere on UN Security
Council in Vote on Syria
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612061048204134-us-poisoning-un-security-council-vote/
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612061048204134-us-poisoning-un-security-council-vote/
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Bitter Lessons: The True Sponsors of Daesh's Latest Assault
on Palmyra
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048475496-palmyra-offensive-troop-movements/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048475496-palmyra-offensive-troop-movements/
RELATED 1
Syrian Army Regroups Around Palmyra After 'Coordinated Attack
From Daesh & CIA'
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048465592-syria-army-palmyra-intelligence/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048465592-syria-army-palmyra-intelligence/
RELATED 2
Barbarians at the Gates: 'It Will Take Time to Restore Status
Quo in Palmyra'
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048461496-syria-daesh-palmyra-liberation/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048461496-syria-daesh-palmyra-liberation/
RELATED 3
The Road to Ruins: Why Daesh Decided to Recapture Palmyra
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048446810-syria-palmyra-daesh-attack/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612121048446810-syria-palmyra-daesh-attack/
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Russian Naval Aviation Learns Valuable But 'Bitter Lessons'
in Syria
https://sputniknews.com/military/201612051048196551-aircraft-carrier-crash-lessons/
https://sputniknews.com/military/201612051048196551-aircraft-carrier-crash-lessons/
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Surprise: How CIA Agents in Cuba Turned Out to be Castro’s
Intelligence Officers
https://sputniknews.com/latam/201612121048476617-cia-agents-double-agents-cuba/
https://sputniknews.com/latam/201612121048476617-cia-agents-double-agents-cuba/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on December 11, 2016 by Eric Zuesse.
A 12
August 2012 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warning that the Obama
Administration’s strategy might drive ISIS from Mosul in Iraq to Der Zor in Syria,
is now being actually carried out as a plan instead of a warning — a plan to
weaken and ultimately oust Syria’s non-sectarian President Bashar al-Assad and
replace him with a Sunni Sharia-law regime (one led by jihadists). The DIA
warning had called this scenario an “unraveling,” but Obama and the U.S.
Congress are now actually choosing it, so as to set the incoming President
Trump up with an opportunity to replace Assad’s government by one that the
Sauds and their U.S.-made weapons will control.
The DIA warning in 2012 had said:
“C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST [fundamentalist Sunni]
PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT
THE SUPPORTING POWERS [U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey] TO THE OPPOSITION
WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE [pro-Russian and pro-Iranian] SYRIAN REGIME.”
Whoever wrote this
assessment recognized that though the option would mean an “unraveling” of
Syria, it’s what the U.S. and its allies were actually seeking.
On September 17th, U.S. and UK jets bombed the compound of
Syrian government troops who were fighting to oust jihadists from Deir Ezzor
(or “Der Zor”), and killed 62 Syrian soldiers, with a hundred more injured, in that
U.S.-led bombing attack. Der Zor was being softened-up for the coming
U.S.-and-allied takeover.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
"Querida Noruega, detengan a Henry
Kissinger"
Pablo Sepúlveda
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La estrategia de Trump para
debilitar a Irán NazanÃn
Armanian
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PRESS TV
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What is that useful for if couldn’t contain terror assault to
Palmyra?
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