DIC 19 16 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
In the nearest future we won’t be able to sell polluter-cars.
We have to renew our source of energy, even the electric has to be abandon .. Cars
with nuclear energy are about to come .. forget oil & gas
Just weeks after Ford
idled four plants "due to slowing sales", GM and Fiat Chrysler
announced today that they will idle seven plants across Canada and US as they
work to reduce near-record high inventories amid weakening sales. Just over
10,000 workers will be idled.
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EIA has
downgraded its estimates of proved oil and gas reserves in the U.S., according
to its Crude
Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2015 report, released today. Proved oil and gas reserves down 11.8 percent
and 16.6 percent, respectively, from year-end 2014.
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More
than three out of four developed market stocks have seen a negative
revision to their FY1 sales estimate over the last six months.
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As a
reminder - Chinese bonds crashed overnight again..
First things first in The US -
the market broke today and stocks loved it...
See all the graphics at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/bonds-have-best-day-over-3-months-amid-china-carnage-turkey-terror-berlin-bloodbath
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[[El Peru Inca-Empire private property and communal possession
of land for schools and other social center required to build individual
freedon and well life for all was based on integration, solidarity and real
sense of nation among all members of society. Here in America both feeling were
depicted as opposite sites and in severe contradiction. Aqui la concentracion de la tierra en pocas manos
anulo la libertad de las mayorias y para constrruir sentido de solidaridad
entre individuos tuvieron que recurrir a
guerras de anexion y despojo de pueblos y naciones de fuera. Estuvimos unidos
mientras se asaltaba a otros. Todo llego a su fin cuando los otros se armaron también
y al mismo nivel letal. Hasta aquí llegamos. Hemos ingresado al ocaso de un
sistema que solo trajo destrucción y
muerte.]]
In short, we’ve wasted just about ten
years calling a depression a recovery, and all because money is so unstable that it has become, for the
mainstream as well as mainstream authorities, unrecognizable. If you don’t know
what money is, you aren’t going to know when money is a problem.
Thirty-nine delegates signed the United States
Constitution in September 1787, but three refused to. George Mason, Edmund Randolph, and
Elbridge Gerry were against the final draft of the document, Gerry included even though he had chaired the
committee that had produced the Great Compromise.
He was not alone in
is opposition, as throughout the
country there was a great debate more so about what was missing from it.
Several of the states ratified it anyway, but on the explicit condition that it
be amended with what became THE BILL OF RIGHTS.
James Madison, who drafted most of the text, wrote out 19, drawing from the Virginia Declaration of Rights largely
written by George Mason. Madison proposed them to Congress on June 8,
1789; the House affirming 17, the Senate 12.
….
The Fifth Amendment decrees, “No
person shall be…deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of
law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just
compensation.” Private
property is central in this amendment because private
property was understood then as a central check not just on government but as
the primary tangible instrument of freedom. There was and is everything
a man might think up and dream, but what he could do with such endeavors is as
important in the plying of a just and stable social arrangement.
John Adams once
wrote, “Frequent interference with private property and
contracts, retrospective laws destruct all public faith, as well as
confidence between man and man, and flagrant violations of the Constitution
must disgust the best and wisest part of the community, occasion a general
depravity of manners, bring the legislature into contempt, and finally produce
anarchy and public convulsion.”
It wasn’t just the Founding Fathers
who called private property the “bedrock of capitalism”, though of
course they never used those terms invented later, as it had been very well
understood especially as an outgrowth of the Enlightenment
As private property defines
capitalism and freedom, it offends collectivism and socialism. Friedrich Engels
wrote, “the slave frees himself when, of all the relations of private
property, he abolishes only the relation of slavery and thereby becomes a
proletarian; the proletarian can free himself only by abolishing private
property in general.” Hippy folksinger and little “c” communist Pete Seeger
suggested, “In a world of private property, if something isn’t owned by
somebody, it’s going to be misused by somebody else.”
To all sides, banking
has been a subject of so much consternation because it is a basic offense to
all these perhaps intrinsic ideals. To the socialists and collectivists, banks are a primary
source of inequality and oppression; to
the original principles of the Bill of Rights, they can be too much wiggle
room.
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With markets trading at extremes, bullish
exuberance at peaks and monetary policy tightening – this might be a good time to locate one of those “greater fools” to sell
to. Of course, this is just the opposite of what the media is
telling you to do currently.
Typically, when sentiment has been this “bullish” (SEE big image of picture
above at : http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Bull-Sentiment-Composite-Index-121216.png) markets have been near short to
intermediate-term peaks, or worse.
We can also examine investor behavior by looking at fund flows of
individuals over time. Not surprisingly, investors tend to buy the most near
market peaks and sell the most near market bottoms.
See image below at http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/ICI-Cumulative-Flows-Bonds-Stocks-121816.png
The “Greater Fool” Theory.
As investors, our job
now is to be selling off our investments to those “greater fools” that
are willing to overpay for an asset. Heading
into the election, it was believed that if Donald Trump was elected it would be
“a crisis” for the markets. Heading into election night, the
market sold-off and was trading at 3-standard deviations below the moving
average. Regardless of who won, the negativity of the market had set it up for
a rally. Currently, at 3 standard
deviations above the 60-day moving average, the “Donald Trump Is Great”
rally is likely complete as opposite extremes have now been reached.
Open this web to see all graphs:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/make-america-greater-fools-again
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This is
what it comes down to: There was a credit explosion to the benefit of
banks and the wealthy once Nixon closed the gold window. At that point,
governments could print at will, and they did. Central bank policy cannot fix structural problems,
only the free market can. And that includes a
truly free market in money as well.
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Negativity
has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to
the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a
market fade or at least in getting some protection.
Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to
the wind, bullishness is pervasive and
bears look like idiots. In short: All
the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at
least in getting some protection.
On December 4 I
suggested new highs on markets were a fading opportunity, especially in context
of low volatility. I outlined technical upside risk into
2235-2275 on the $SPX. Subsequently $SPX exceeded my risk range by 2
points before retreating a bit.
Now that the risk
range has been approached I would like to share a few updated charts that
support my technical basis for major risk coming to these markets.
Firstly, a long
term monthly chart on the $SPX reveals the entire 2016 rally to be a lot
weaker than advertised as it comes with pronounced negative divergences in
relative strength and a weak MACD in context of a very much narrowing bearish
wedge pattern:
See all images at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-19/caution-protection-required
In light of recent market strength I stand firm in my
analytical view that risk is highly underpriced and
markets continue to set up for major pain as recent highs have come in context
of larger bearish structures that have produced a new found bullishness in
markets, perhaps a key ingredient that was lacking over the past couple of
years.
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POLITICS
It's
officially over: Donald Trump has secured 304 Electoral Votes following the
Texas vote (with 2 faithless electors), officially securing the presidency of
the United States.
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Obama
Admits Hillary "Lost Badly" By Failing To "Make An Argument"
That Inspired People To "Show Up"
"So as a consequence,
you've got a situation where there're not only entire states but also big
chunks of states where, if we're not showing up, if
we're not in there making an argument, then
we're going to lose. And we can lose badly, and that's what happened
in this election."
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This
dishonest meme was also designed by The Deep State to distract the public from
the substance of the emails disclosed by WikiLeaks - namely, the scamming and trickery of the Democratic
National Committee (DNC), and the influence-peddling of Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, which had her flirting with indictment last
summer, and only
reinforced her already-established public image as an unscrupulous person.
[[ Es cierto que solo
le faltó ensalada de lengua al estofado de culebras de la dama Hillary? .]
]
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- Electoral college expected to officially select Trump (Reuters)
- China says discussing return of undersea drone with U.S. military (Reuters)
- Neutral PBOC Sets Up First U.S.-China Tightening Since 2006 (BBG)
- Wall St sleepwalking into Trump volatility surge (FT)
- Ukraine's largest bank rescued by state, prompts call for calm (Reuters)
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
"This murder is clearly a provocation
aimed at undermining the improvement and normalization of Russian-Turkish
relations, as well as undermining the peace process in Syria promoted by
Russia, Turkey, Iran and other countries interested in settling the conflict in
Syria," Putin said in a statement on Monday evening.
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“When you have an event like last week
people take notice of it, you have to
go back and review your China [investment] thesis...Everyone is nervous,”
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Everyone and their dog in the
marketplace realizes that an EMU (European Monetary Union) debt crisis before
the German elections next Autumn could sink Chancellor Merkel. There is a deeper problem here. It is
becoming clear that even beyond Europe’s election season, “monetary normalization” may well not be feasible.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
It’s
Official: Trump Wins Electoral College Vote, Propaganda Campaign Portraying Him
as an Instrument of Moscow has Failed By Prof Michel
Chossudovsky,
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How
an Evidence-Free CIA Finding Alleging Russian Interference in the US Election
was Turned into an Indisputable ‘Truth’ By Stephen Gowans
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
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Amid The Bombs of Aleppo, All You Can Hear
Are Lies By Peter Hitchens
There was not one
single staff reporter for any Western news org in eastern Aleppo last week.
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‘Fake News’ in America: Homegrown, and Far
From New By Chris Hedges
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The Bad Losers (And What They Fear Losing) By Diana Johnstone
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COUNTER PUNCH
Jonathan Cook Clinton’s
Defeat and the Fake News Conspiracy
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John Whitbeck On
Russia’s Stealing the White House
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David Swanson Monday
Morning Bernie Backing
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Murray Dobbin Economics:
the Science of Plunder
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Gunman Who Killed Russian Ambassador in Turkey Was a Police
Officer
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201612191048756669-gunman-turkey-identified/
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201612191048756669-gunman-turkey-identified/
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Gunman Reportedly Detained After Trying to Enter US Embassy
in Turkey
https://sputniknews.com/world/201612201048769964-gunman-detained-turkey-us-embassy/
https://sputniknews.com/world/201612201048769964-gunman-detained-turkey-us-embassy/
RELATED
US National Security Team Briefs Obama on Russian Envoy
Murder in Turkey
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612191048762700-us-national-security-briefs-obama/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612191048762700-us-national-security-briefs-obama/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on December 19, 2016 by Charles Hugh Smith
Are you a Deplorable? The answer
might surprise you. Take this short quiz to find out.
1. If you agree with this characterization of American
Elites: “The
self-satisfied cosmopolitan culture that sprang up among the affluent 20% or so
of the industrial world’s population, who became convinced that the temporary
ascendancy of policies that favored their interests was not only permanent but
self-evidently right and just.”(The Fifth Side of the Triangle The Archdruid Report) You’re a Deplorable.
2. If you question whether
globalization is actually in the national interest: You’re a Deplorable.
3. If you question whether
endless wars of choice, drone strikes and foreign interventions that cost
the lives of countless civilians are actually in the national interest: You’re
a Deplorable.
4. If you see the major
institutions of American life as corrupt, ineffective, and blatantly favoring
the financial/social elites: You’re a Deplorable.
5. If you think it’s wrong that
some immigrants (the illegal ones) get to “jump the queue” ahead of
the millions of legal immigrants who have waited patiently for years and paid
the costs of following the rules: You’re a Deplorable.
6. If you see the concentration
of media ownership as a threat to democracy: You’re
a Deplorable.
7. If you think the War on Drugs
that’s imprisoned millions of young men is actually a War on the American
People, a war that was prosecuted for the entire 24 long years of the
presidencies of Bill Clinton, G.W. Bush and Barack Obama: You’re a
Deplorable.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
….
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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¿Independientes de qué y liberales para qué? Armando B. Ginés
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Adiós, 2016. ¿Qué será de 2017? Eric Nepomuceno
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PRESS TV
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Erdogan
to Putin: Killing aimed at ruining TUR-RU ties
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Latinos could do the same: disregard economic &
military deals
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