DIC 29 16 SIT EC
y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
"The
idea that paper money could replace intrinsically valuable gold and precious
metals... was both revolutionary and immensely seductive. It was in fact
financial alchemy - the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy
reality and common sense. Pursuit of this monetary elixir has brought a series
of economic disasters - from hyperinflation to banking collapses."
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For those keeping an eye on yesterday's 5Y and
today's 7Y auctions as an indication of whether the great rotation from bonds
into stocks may be gradually ending, the answer was a resounding yes.
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Las falsas ilusiones solo conducen al
infierno
At least since 2003
(which is when our data on TIPS begins), the dollar and breakeven inflation expectations have had a negative
relationship. Said differently, when the dollar strengthens (as it has
done recently) inflation expectations tend to fall and vice versa. This has
reversed completely since the summer.
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First,
'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point
at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’
is reached, it is NOT THE
BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While
the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign
of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests
caution. The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of
caution rather than exuberance.
..
The chart below is a composite index of the average of
the UofM and CB survey readings for consumer confidence, consumer expectations,
and current conditions. The
horizontal dashed lines show the current readings of each composite back to
1957.
Importantly, as noted above, high
readings of the index are not unusual. It is also worth noting that
high readings are historically more
coincident with a late stage expansion, and a
leading indicator of an upcoming recession, rather than a start of an economic
expansion.
The next chart shows the same analysis as compared to the
S&P 500 index. The dashed vertical lines denote peaks in the consumer
composite index. SEE GRAPH AT:
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Consumer-Confidence-Composite-SP500-122716.png
Secondly, and from a pure investment standpoint, the
positioning in 10-year Treasuries has returned to more extreme levels. As noted by the vertical dashed lines, when the 4-week moving
average of net positioning rises sharply it has typically denoted a short-term
peak in rates.
Not surprisingly, with everyone
on the “same side of the trade,” any exogenous event which triggers a
movement in the opposite direction tends to result in a stampede.
Furthermore, as I addressed in detail recently, a bulk of the rate rise since the lows has been directly
related to rebalancing of holdings following Brexit and a fight by China to
stabilize the collapse of the Yuan. See
all graphs at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-29/3-things-records-are-records-reason
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Bonds & Bullion now outpacing stocks
post-Fed... (and bank stocks are down 1.6% post-fed)
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Despite Bloomberg's consumer comfort index
declining for the first time since Trump's election (from 46.7 to 46.0) with
confidence in the economy and personal finances dropping, Republicans' confidence soared to the highest
since March 2008 - erasing all of the post-Obama-election decline.
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Billionaires are the richest of the rich. Many young entrepreneurs hope to one-day
reach this ultimate financial milestone. But before these entrepreneurs
are allowed to join this group, they first must ask how did billionaires
acquire their wealth in the first place? Take a look at the map below to see
the distribution of billionaires by
country and type.
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While everyone in the world appears convinced
that (and positioned for) bond yields go higher, stocks go higher, gold goes
lower, and risk has been vanquished, UBS notes that the world's largest, most active overweight crowded trade is in
Amazon.com stock (followed cloesly by UnitedHealth
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POLITICS
WE FED UP WITH THIS STUPIDITY! Mr Drone Obama is a loser, liar &
war-criminal
The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS) have released a joint report seeking to explain how investigators linked
the Russian government to hacks on various Democratic political organizations. The
report is, in a word, lacking.
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“My
guess is they will have information that indicates course of conduct and links
to activities that suggest motivation,” but no smoking gun that will convince those
who aren’t already convinced, a White House official said.
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"The United States government is not
supporting DAESH. The USG did not create or support DAESH in the past.
Assertions the United States government is supporting DAESH are not true."
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Amid the sweeping sanctions unveiled by Obama
in response to Russian "hacking" of the elections, President Obama
ordered the shut down, or rather confiscation, of a Russian-owned compound on
Maryland's Eastern Shore. Obama gave Russia 72 hours to leave the 45-acre
property, which the Soviet government bought in 1972.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Russian military forces have discovered mass graves in eastern
parts of the Syrian city of Aleppo, with many of the bodies reportedly showing signs of torture.
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"The US sanctions against Russia are
the signs of a real paranoia..and are futile and counter-productive...
I can only reconfirm that this hysteria
obviously, deals a blow on the foreign policy plans of the incoming
administration of the president-elect...."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
THE BIG LIAR OBAMA CREATE the big fake MINISTRY OF TRUTH
“Big
Brother” Watches Everyone in America: Obama Signs “Ministry of Truth” into Law By Stephen Lendman
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COUNTER PUNCH
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John W. Whitehead 2016:
The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year
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James A Haught The
Long, Slow Death of Religion
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Miriam Pemberton The
Pentagon’s $125 Billion Cover-Up
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
EXCLUSIVE: Horrific Details Emerge of the Aleppo Rebel's
Trade in Human Organs https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612291049111417-aleppo-human-organs-trade/
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US Expels 35 Russian Diplomats, Closes 2 Diplomatic Compounds https://sputniknews.com/us/201612291049119985-us-russia-sanctions/
Related
Related
US Intelligence Services Sued to Reveal Claimed Evidence of
Russian Hacking
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612281049052004-usa-intelligence-sued-russian-hacking/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612281049052004-usa-intelligence-sued-russian-hacking/
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Obama Set To Release Report To Congress On Alleged Russian
Hacking
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612291049120868-obama-set-to-release-report/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612291049120868-obama-set-to-release-report/
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Putin Will Determine Adequate Response to US Sanctions
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612291049122432-putin-determine-usa-sanctions-response/
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612291049122432-putin-determine-usa-sanctions-response/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on December 29, 2016 by Charles
Hugh Smith
Though housing statistics such as
average sales price are typically lumped into one national number, this is
extremely misleading: there are two completely different housing markets in
the U.S. One is hot, one is
not so hot.
Just as importantly, one may stay
relatively hot while the other may stagnate or decline.
All real estate is
local, of course; there are thousands of housing markets if we consider
neighborhoods, hundreds if we look at counties, cities and towns and dozens if
we look at multi-city metro regions.
But consider what
happens to average sales prices when million-dollar home sales are lumped in
with $100,000 home sales. The average price comes in around $500,000– a gross
distortion of both markets.
Here’s a real-world example of
what has happened in hot markets over the past 20 years. The house in question is located in a
bedroom community suburb in the San Francisco Bay Area metro area. The home was
built in 1916 and has 914 square feet, no garage and a small lot.
It sold in 1996 for
$135,000. This was a bit under neighborhood prices due to the lack of garage
and small size, but nearby larger homes sold in the $145,000 to $160,000 range.
The house was sold in
2004 for $542,000, and again in 2008 for $575,000. It is currently valued at
$720,000. The neighborhood average is $900,000.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Israel, la resolución 2334 y la
última burla de Obama a los palestinos NazanÃn
Armanian
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EEUU en rumbo de colisión con la ONU Thalif Deen
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“Es incompatible ser feminista y
llevar velo” esto -además del F que crea odio de genero- convierte
el F en incompatible con la inclusión y
razón creativa. Este F es nihilismo absurdo y reaccionario. Si alguien se opone
a valores de un sistema cultural, que por lo menos sea creativo y respetuoso. Que
una mujer lleve velo en las calles o una mini-tanga en una playa es
absolutamente normal. Pero que una médica musulmana lleve velo cuando sirve en
un hospital, o una niña en una escuela, o un hombre coloque un oratorio dentro
de una biblioteca pública, eso es
absurdo e irracional. Nadie tiene derecho a incitar dogmas religiosos en
contextos de libertad religiosa y de ateÃsmo. Seria irracional.
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2016, el año de la indignación
movilizada Ariel
Goldstein
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PRESS TV
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[[ Ayer los judÃos ricos fueron los amos de la especulación
criminal, hoy los son también. Ayer ningún paÃs europeo los querÃa dentro y
tampoco hoy. Ninguna polÃtica Econ nacional estaba libre de ser bloqueada y
devastada por mercaderes judÃos. Europa los entrego a los nazis para que los
incineren y fue con la complicidad de otros judÃos. Cuando se instaló el modelo
neoliberal los oligarcas judÃos devinieron reyes de la especulación en WS e
Israel devino el reino de la evasión fiscal (el 2008 el candidato presidencial
del GOP fue acusado de ocultar su ahorros en Israel y hubo también acusaciones
de que el lavado del dinero sucio se hacÃa también con la complicidad de
Israel). Lo más grave es que Israel devino el eje del crimen impune en toda la región
del ME (Israel bombardeo, asesino y se anexo tierras ajenas de Palestina cuando
les dio la gana). Las oligarquÃas del US los protegieron porque allà ocultaron los
dineros de la evasión fiscal contra el pueblo americano. Pronto sabremos los
turbios nexos de Trump con Israel (that smell fishy). Por lo pronto ha quedado
claro que Europa tampoco los quiere hoy. Hoy Israel es el Estado criminal n.1
de mundo entero.]
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New sanctions to 'destroy' Russo-US relations
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US lawmakers slam Kerry’s rebuke of Israel
lobby
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