DIC 5 16 SIT EC
y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
But...all those gains were puked
after the NYMEX close...
Following the biggest USO (Oil
ETF) fund outflow in 7 years on Friday (as investors "bail out"
following the commodity curve's inversion)...
Finally we leave you with this...from Rhino Trading's
Michael Block who offers the following perspecitve on why European stocks
spiked the most since the Trump victory last month (largley a black swan
event), courtesy
of Barron's:
…[Apparently] the pattern of
fading a potential crisis and then scrambling to cover and get long when
everyone takes a breath and realizes that this time is not the apocalypse
either still holds more than ever. I can’t justify any
of this. The lesson investors and traders are getting is that everything is a
buying opportunity and you need to not miss the boat. Brexit? Bullish. Trump
winning the election? Bullish. Italy saying no to the referendum and the Prime
Minister handing in his resignation? Bullish. Heck, all we need is a
coup d’etat in India and the entire Belgian banking system to go kablooey and
the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 by Christmas Eve.
….
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Following Goldman's
exposition of the 'devils' in the markets' details, we thought the
following not-widely-followed indicator was of interest. As UBS' Art Cashin
warns it's "worth keeping an eye on."
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For the
second time today, the most liquid, transparent, efficient stock market in the
world... has broken.
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Will “Trumponomics”
change the course of the U.S. economy? We certainly hope so. It will be better for
us all. However, as investors, we
must understand the difference between a “narrative-driven” advance and
one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The
first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t.
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Pamping
oil hasta que caiga el precio . A pampear a pampear que el mundo se va a
acabar
The
greatest trick OPEC ever pulled was convincing the world to buy oil even as
production kept rising to new all time highs.
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Despite a small rise MoM, The Fed's own Labor
Market Conditions Index has now deteriorated year-over-year for 5 straight
months, despite significant upward revisions over the last 6
months, most notably in September and October. As Deutsche's Jo Lavorgan notes,"the upshot is that the economic outlook remains
fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market."
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After spiking to
2016 highs in September/October, the US Services economy slipped lower in
November according to Markit with signs of margin
squeezes appearing as input cost inflation hits a 15-month high, but prices
charged remained flat, and payrolls growth remains weak (well below average). However, ISM reported a big beat, with Services at the highest since
Oct 2015 (despite a drop in new orders).
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"The COMEX has nothing to do with gold. That is simply a casino
where gamblers place their bets on the gold price...The manipulations are being
exposed and it’s only a matter of time
before their schemes backfire"
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December 5, 1996: “Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less
uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of
stocks and other earning assets. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset
values, which then become
subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?"
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Something curious happened as Trump was
"draining the swamp" - the man who by some accounts owns the
swamp, Hillary Clinton's billionaire backer Warren Buffett, may be about to get
an "unexpected" windfall thanks to Trump's tax-rate cut policies
which would boost the book value of Berkshire by as much as $29 billion.
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Si este Sr. jugara soccer dispararÃa
contra su propio arquero. Cualquier dÃa
sale y se acabó el circo
"I
don’t think anybody in the administration is looking for quote-unquote tariffs, but I think
they are a cudgel if you will to lay out there if we can’t get the trade deals
to be right-sided to now benefit the American people.”
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Mentiras encima.. Maniana diran: “la
confianza empresarial sube rapido”
The Weighted Average Cost Of Capital - When it goes up, prices go down. It's going up...
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POLITICS
With celebrations
continuing at the site of the Dakota Access Pipeline protest (following
the Obama administration's decision not to grant the construction permit),
it appears the Trump administration has very different
ideas. Having confirmed Trump's support
for the pipeline (not
to do with his investments), Reuters
reports a Trump advisory group proposes the politically explosive idea of putting
oil-rich Indian reservation lands into provate ownership.
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How would you describe the social mood of the nation and world? Would anti-Establishment,
anti-status quo, and anti-globalization be a good start? These are all characteristics of
the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering the disintegrative
(winter) phase.
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The measure has not been passed by the Senate
or signed into law yet, and the holiday recess may prevent that. But it is easy to see how it would empower the
Deep State to shut down whichever websites they happened to not like.
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The conservative watchdog site, Judicial Watch, today announced
it filed a motion seeking to unseal the audiovisual
recordings of the depositions of top Clinton aides and State Department
officials.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
- EM, China and Europe remain risks to central scenario
- ECB to extend QE, removing Euro area risks to reflation sentiment
- OPEC decision and breakevens suggest EM could become a reflation trade
- RMB devaluations in response to protectionism
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Well you have to laugh really eh?
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Matteo Renzi met with Italian president Sergio
Mattarella to discuss the terms of his resignation. According to Ansa, Renzi's
departure may not be as clear cut as some had expected, and as Ansa reports,
Renzi may delay his resignation following a request by the president to hold
the post until the Senate Budget Law is passed,
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While investors are focused on Italy,
Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore warns that another Mediterranean country is poised to grab their attention very soon.
A currency crisis in Turkey is rapidly deteriorating, setting the stage for dramatic and unscheduled central bank action.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Selected
Articles: Chosen Leaders, Proven Failures, and America’s “Duopoly Party System” By Global Research
News
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
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Donald Trump Kicks
Off Victory Tour in Cincinnati, OH .
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What comes next,
history has shown, will not be pleasant.
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This is how working
class and community-based electorates are seduced into voting against their
real class, national, community.
----
Nine Things Obama Could Do Before Leaving Office to Reveal
the Nature of the National Security State.
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The first American Muslim elected to the U.S. Congress, has
been the target of a defamation campaign that is deceitful, repugnant, and
yet quite predictable
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COUNTER PUNCH
Matthew Hannah Standing
Rock and the Ideology of Oppressors: Conversations with a Morton County
Commissioner
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David Macaray Trump
vs. America’s Labor Unions
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Kevin Martin Nuclear
Weapons Modernization: a New Nuclear Arms Race? Who Voted for it? Who Will
Benefit from It?
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Russia-Iran-Syria Alliance 'Thwarts US Ambition to Oust
Bashar Assad'
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612051048167556-syria-russia-iran-alliance/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612051048167556-syria-russia-iran-alliance/
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California State Legislature Prompts Trump to Drop Mass
Deportation Plans
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612061048208266-california-urges-trump-drop-mass-deportation-plan/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201612061048208266-california-urges-trump-drop-mass-deportation-plan/
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Mexico May Hike Oil Output to 2.9Mln Barrels Daily Surpassing
Venezuela, Brazil
https://sputniknews.com/latam/201612061048208512-mexico-oil-output-surpassing-venezuela-brazil/
https://sputniknews.com/latam/201612061048208512-mexico-oil-output-surpassing-venezuela-brazil/
Related:
Mexican Oil Prices Rise by Over 7% in Wake of OPEC Deal on
Output Freeze
https://sputniknews.com/business/201609301045853589-opec-deal-oil-prices/
https://sputniknews.com/business/201609301045853589-opec-deal-oil-prices/
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US in Afghanistan - 'We Will Never Know What's Going On’
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612061048208041-usa-in-afghanistan/
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612061048208041-usa-in-afghanistan/
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Former Ukrainian Parliamentarian Alleges Widespread Cronyism
by Poroshenko https://sputniknews.com/europe/201612061048206076-ukrainian-parliamentarian-alleges-widespread-cronyism/
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Russia, Philippines Boost Military Ties to Enhance
Asia-Pacific Region Security
https://sputniknews.com/military/201612061048207823-russia-philippines-military-ties/
https://sputniknews.com/military/201612061048207823-russia-philippines-military-ties/
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RT SHOWS
RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on December 5, 2016 by Charles
Hugh Smith
How would you describe the social
mood of the nation and world? Would anti-Establishment, anti-status
quo, and anti-globalization be a good start? How
about choking on fast-rising debt? Would stagnant growth,
stagnant wages be a fair description? Or how about rising
wealth/income inequality? Wouldn’t rising disunity and political
polarization be accurate?
These are all characteristics of
the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering thedisintegrative (winter)
phase. Souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating
wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political
polarization and elite disunity are all manifestations of this phase.
I have covered the cyclical
nature of human social orders many times, most recently inWe’ve
Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016)
Now Is
the Winter of our Discontent: Our Era of Rising Discord (November 16,
2016)
Historians David
Hackett Fischer (The Great
Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History) and Peter Turchin (Ages of Discord) have assembled
data and models for these long-term cycles.
Based on the history painstakingly assembled by Fischer and
Turchin we can anticipate:
— Ever higher prices
for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.
— Ever larger
government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of
currency.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Frei Betto: "Dilma Rousseff ha sido vÃctima
del tercer golpe blando neoliberal que organiza EEUU en América Latina"
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COL
Ent a Pablo Beltrán, del ELN. "La falta de democracia y la persecución
polÃtica complejizan el proceso de paz con el Gobierno" Kintto Lucas
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Hanan Blaidi Salman “La mujer palestina sufre la violencia de la
ocupación y el patriarcado”
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Las 4 cosas que el Papa Francisco
les dice a los pobres Ignacio
Ramonet
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Europa naufraga en el Mediterráneo Iosu Perales
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Con Trump y Hillary el pueblo perdió.
Ambos implementaron el fraude oligárquico de los super-Packs (compra de
elecciones) y los super-delegados
(cronyism descarado). Ademas de leyes que entronizan el sistema dualista y excluyen a quien no es Dem or GOP. Jill
Stain los está acusando con el recuento de votos, en el afán de dotar al pueblo
de energÃa Rev anti-sistema. Ella logro en 7 dias lo que no se pudo probar en 7
meses de fraudes : denunciar el sistema
como obsoleto y preparar al pueblo para la Rev anti-fascista que se avecina:
Pueblo vs alianza de Gbno, banqueros y
grandes Corp del W-Street).
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Vicepresidente electo de EE.UU.:
"México pagará el muro" multanto a
quienes envÃan dinero a su paÃs. Ya CA y pronto Tx (que antes derribo el muro
de OB) rechazan esa polÃtica. Necesitan mano de obra barata del sur para presionar
hacia abajo los salarios de los blancos que ahora piden 15 USD p/h.
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¿Qué hacen los buques de desembarco
de EE.UU. en las costas de Siria? Esperan la señal de ataque, mientras los
aliados de RU les envÃan bolsas de plástico para que empaqueten su regreso en
caso hay ataque. Ya la guerra la perdimos; las tropas USA no tienen nada que
hacer allÃ, solo los usan para el chantaje e intimidación “diplomática”, de lo
que se rÃen los aliados de RU.
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ProhÃben en EE.UU. toda cooperación
militar con Rusia Esa “cooperación” no
existe. Lo que buscan es encarcelar a quienes desmienten las mentiras
anti-rusas. Ya se desenmascaró el cuento de la Clinton y temen que la prensa
alternativa haga lo mismo con las mentiras de Trump.
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[[
Aquà mi versión
del tema: un resumen de : www.elblogsalmon.com
Hay
2 variables que miden el crecimiento de la Econ mundial: La demanda agregada
–DA- y la oferta agregada -OA-.
Los indicadores del DA son 4: (validos también para la OA, pero a la inversa).
A-
la capacidad de compra del consumidor interno y externo (C): este es uno de los grandes problemas
del plan de Trump: los bienes y servicios que el consumidor puede comprar
dependen de los precios (si son altos la demanda baja y a la inversa). No hay modo de garantizar precios estables si
ya se está iniciando ataques infundados contra China (el principal comprador y
vendedor de bienes y servicios comerciales) . El acuerdo petrolero tampoco
garantiza precios bajos y alta DA. Los problemas geopolÃticos (guerras
estúpidas que creamos) tampoco dan contexto para precios estables- ;
B- la inversión empresarial (I) Las empresas invierten en lo que da
mas beneficios y esto se calcula por la diferencia entre ingresos y gastos. Si
los costos de producción o gastos en labor y tecnologÃa suben, los beneficios
empresariales bajan. Significa esto que
la expectativa empresarial varia según la coyuntura Econ y polit del paÃs (las
guerras y las crisis econ mundiales afectan la confianza o expectativa
empresarial). Por tanto esto es muy difÃcil predecir si ya estamos hablando de guerra comercial
con China y su aliado RU. Si se
evita esos conflictos es posible lograr un nivel medio de precios y dar
estabilidad y confianza al inversor. Por tanto, todo depende de los costos de producción, y de un nivel
medio de precios .
C- El Gasto Publico (en este caso el
estÃmulo fiscal que da el Estado que si es billonario (G) y ya viene alentando la inversión empresarial. Todos quieren su presa
del pavo de billones que ya anuncio Trump.
D- la tasa importación vs
exportación (X-M), si seguimos exportando armas y guerras, nuestra
balanza comercial va a ser siempre negativa por la inestabilidad de precios que
eso provoca. Urge
diversificar la exportación y competir en carrera de carros no poluter de los
europeos y que ya anuncio RU y China también. Urge ingresar a nuevas Tech que
vayan mas allá de la energÃa contaminante: petróleo.
La Oferta agregada OA, es decir, la
cantidad y calidad de bienes y servicios que las empresas están dispuestas a
vender dependen
también del nivel medio de precios y de
los costos de producción y las expectativas empresariales. Mas sobre este tema lo puede encontrar en:
www.elblogsalmon.com
El debate sobre este tema ya se inició en el
USA y hay dos art que vale la pena leer: el de Felstein,
un republicano de la era de Bush que no cree que el Plan de Trump va a funcionar,
pero podrÃa. Y el otro, Stockman, es un
economista anti-sistema que ya habla del fracaso de la Rev que ofrecio Trump.
Si lee Ingles,
lealos:
y
2- The Revolution That
Failed by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
Mas lecturas en:
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PRESS TV
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‘Stop
sweeping rights records under the carpet
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Erdogan still in the
dirty alliance with Israel-Saudis
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Italy
saves 1,300 refugees in Mediterranean sea
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SETTING THE AGENDA IS
THE KEY: Dismantling nuke-power plants
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‘US
nuclear arsenal a threat to world by
James Petras
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We have to stop
Tramp’s & Press islamofobia. They should be fined by Supreme Court
----
Los amigos
de RU crecen y los enemigos del USA
tambien. Bye-bye unipolar system
----
Libya's
Sirte fully liberated from Daesh los amigos de la
Clinton are been wiped out
Trump will need China to foster his economic Program.
China don’t need us.
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S: focus on “our revolution” & urgent need for a new
party. Cut old ties with Dems’ cronyism
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