ND SEP 6
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Stocks
within inches of record highs and bonds within mm of record low yields... and
all on the back of a call and a possible round of trade talks in a month
"AWESOME"
as long as Powell delivers at least 125bps of
rate-cuts in the next 15 months...
See Chart:
Effective
Fed fund rate vs. implied Fed fund rates
at end 2020
The
yield curve steepened on the week but 3m10Y remains drastically inverted...
See Chart:
UST 3m
10 YEAR SPREAD
The
dollar has fallen 4 straight days back to 2-week lows...
See Chart:
Bloomberg
Dollar Index
As Bloomberg details, soft
commodities are on their longest losing streak in at least 28 years as trade tensions and currency swings add further woes
to oversupplied markets. The Bloomberg Softs Spot
Subindex tracking coffee, sugar, and cotton headed for the 10th straight week of declines, the
longest stretch since 1991 when the index
started.
See Chart:
Soft commodity Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm488E.jpg?itok=GVj6Ak3J
“The ratcheting-up of
trade tensions, which is of itself feeding into broader concerns about global
growth” are putting pressure on prices, and the weak Brazilian real is adding
stress on sugar and coffee, said Caroline
Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in London.
Finally, we note that, with
stocks within a percent of record highs and US macro data back into positive
territory for the first time in 7 months, who would
blame Powell for cutting 50bps... what could go wrong?
See Chart:
Mid
Price
Summing up: Since the last Fed rate-cut, the dollar and stocks are
unchanged, bonds and bullion up around 6%...
See Chart:
FED
rate Cut vs. UST 3oYear, Gold. USD.
S&P
IF AT
FIRST YOU UTTERLY FAIL, TRY TO CUT RATES AGAIN?
….
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The inverted yield curve points to a
recession in 2020 that will force the Fed to cut rates all the way to zero
before the end of 2020.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did
not bring a prepared speech to the SNB event at the University of Zurich today,
instead he took part in a moderated Q&A with SNB President Thomas Jordan on
the economic outlook and monetary policy. Powell said that the US economy is
still in a good place and the most likely outlook remains favorable. However, there are the significant risks to the outlook:
global economic growth, uncertainty about trade policy and persistently low
inflation. He said that ‘As we move
forward, we’re going to continue to watch all of these factors, and all the
geopolitical things that are happening, and we’re going to continue to act as
appropriate to sustain this expansion.’
The Fed is bolstering Trump’s
bargaining position in the ‘game of chicken’ between the US and China that we
analyzed a few years ago in ‘The Trump Trade War Game’. But it also makes it more likely that President Trump will continue to
escalate the trade war. And that makes it more likely that the Fed will have to make additional insurance cuts
before the end of the year. Consequently, there
is now a strong feedback loop between trade policy and monetary policy that
will force the FOMC to make more insurance cuts in the near future, most likely
in September and October.
See Chart:
Inverted
Yield Curve
From insurance cuts to recession cuts
What’s more, we think that this
is only the beginning. The inversion of the yield curve
points to a recession in 2020 . While the Fed is downplaying this signal
because quantitative easing is supposed to be
distorting the yield curve, in our recent special Yield curve inversion:
This time is not different we showed that the Fed’s
argument is both flawed and contradicted by the data. Therefore, the
recession signals given by the yield curve should be taken seriously. In fact, we have a recession in 2020 H2 in our
baseline scenario that will force the Fed to go all the
way back to zero next year. Our full forecast of the Fed’s rate path is
summarized in table.
See Table:
Rabobank
forecasts of FOMC decisions
….
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Chief strategist at Quill
Intelligence discusses the macro-centric thesis of the looming recession
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
...we are
witnessing a new age of censorship in
which government and corporations work hand in hand TO CRUSH (ban, censor, demonetize, algorithmically purge, silence) all those who challenge the official ideology and
its many narratives.
….
IF THE MATRIX refers the chances of
fascism in America.. YES there is such a possibility if Trump win the
re-election in 2020. He is trying to do so with the help of fraud.. I
mean.. by fostering big corporation to buy elections via “donation” to
political parties. Y guess E-Warren & Bernie Sanders have fallen in this trap.. Fraud vs. fraud is their
strategy and that has nothing to do with real democracy.. but there was not
other way to face the confrontation set by top elites of the REPs party..
unless a sudden change in the POLITICAL context HAPPENS allowing the 3er option to legally capture the 35% of
political power… that could create a win-win situation for both Dems & REPs
and create a balance for democratic gobernability. Otherwise Trump will temporarily win the
election 2020 with LITTLE CHANCES OF BUILDING REAL GOBERNABILITY,
that is run a Govt with permanent
legitimacy (51% of total Nation electorate
instead of electoral legitimacy that only provide 25% of it). So, there is a
legitimacy easy to dismantle by the opposition after elections. Gobernability also implies less conflictivity & violence.
To change violence in streets, the context of US wars world-wide has to be
changed (that implies cut the State expenses on the military and abandon the
production of weapons & wars via deal with RU-China to return to previous
PAEACE deals and advance to dismantle nukes worldwide . Gobenability also implies total
confidence in the Presid and his team (that is something that Trump’team already lost
(nobody trust them worldwide & few inside., (the poltitics of tweets is a
fiasco). starting with the initiative in the most powerful nations. The cohesion of the
political class is also a key factor gobernability. That cohesion
implies coherence between Govt and institutions that are part of the so called
establishment CIA, FBI, Top military ranks and elites of Big Corp. Plus the
elites in the so called “deep-state” (the thinker-tank that advice &
correct the Gvt: big corp & selected politicna from prevoious Govys) .
There is not cohesion among them right now: the military has the upper hand and
that is an open door to fascism. The
chances of democratic Gobernability for Trump is almost ZERO. Cruel
authoreitarims & chances of WW3 is Trump’ last resource and that is a path
to State-nation suicide.
====
...groups are “increasingly
arming themselves and using lethal force to further their goals” and
are emboldened by the “perceived mistreatment or targeting of immigrants.”
====
White phosphorus can cause
skin to melt down to the bone for anyone unfortunate enough to be in its impact
vicinity.
….
They are suffering desperation & anguish because of the
context of war abroad too. The worse that could happen –as happen before- is
WW3 by accident.. The pilots need psychological support and asap.
====
Billionaires paranoia that
individuals can assault them with guns, stand to reason
but not when it became schizophrenic paranoia, that is when they attack
legal standards already set in the US Constitution.
There is
no other way to say it: politicians
and the elitists are coming for your guns. If they can get them from you
and convince you to turn them over willingly, they will do so with propaganda...
====
"Another idea is to cancel the program altogether."
….
Meaning?. Could be 1-select migrants without record of felonies on drug
& violence & with skills to work in the US. Gave them the transitory
print in their skin or their neck to get inside when US landowners & factories need them. If they
behave the way expected they can get citizenship once proved that they paid
taxes when they were working in the US. 2- Allow lot of them to cross the border every year
before Christmas at random -like lottery- to legally get US- ID, specially if US families request their labor in home-works.
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Leprosy cases are emerging in Los Angeles County... and Dr. Maria Teresa Ochoa of
USC's Keck Medical Center is urging
the public to “fight the stigma.”
….
Hay que resucitarlo al “CHE” y quizá a Jesus el
que resucito a Lazaro?. Digo al CHE (me
refiero al Che Guevara) quien vine a
Perú a curar leprosos, ese fue el cuento oficial que trato de cubrir la noticia
de que el Medico argentino estaba en un lugar de la amazonia peruana curando
leprosos. El Che fue a Perú a reclutar socialistas peruanos para llevarlos a
Cuba y ayudar la insurrección de Fidel contra Batista. Más tarde se supo que fueron 12 los peruanos
que se llevó, cuando 2 de ellos aparecieron en el Congo (Africa) luego de que
Fidel había triunfado y el Che abandono el cargo de Ministro para dedicarse a la Rev mundial “Hay que crear muchas Cubas en el
mundo para expandir el socialismo” decía el CHE. Por eso digo que necesitamos el
espíritu del CHE también en Los Angeles, CA. No creo que necesitemos resucitar a
Jesús. Su resurrección es cuentito para
engatusar niños y la REV es cosa de adultos.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
We are the “Evil Empire”: Look
at the amount of innocent people we killed abroad with US Machinery and wars promoted outside to sell our guns..
Reagan
called out the Soviet Union as the evil empire. Is it time for Trump to do the same with China?
….
Reagan (1981-1989) was a war monger with a record of genocides. With the
Washington Consensus of 1985 the PENTA-NATO
military were in-charged of US Economic expansion worlk-wide (the nuke
blackmail became the favored model). The record of US genocides got its highest
average, only superseded later on by
both Bush, father & son., and Clinton in between (Yugoslavia dest)
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La paja
en el ojo ajeno es fácil de ver: Fukushima was an accident…
our Nuclear silos are smoking radioactive
chemical to the air and in CA this gas been absorbed by trees creating the easy
burning there & in Brazil. The water used in these silos not only go the
oceans, they go to rivers used by landowners & the civilian population.
'The letter expresses the
country's serious concerns about
the environmental impact of such a release.'
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-
Iran Says Decision to Cut Nuclear Commitments
'Reversible' if Other Parties to Deal Fulfil Promises
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- MINUTO A MINUTO: Rusia y Ucrania inician un intercambio de prisioneros
- EE.UU. endurece sanciones a Cuba: limita las remesas y las transacciones bancarias
- Maduro exige a Guaidó cancelar la presunta negociación del Esequibo para mantenerse en el diálogo
- Amazonía: Países latinoamericanos firman declaración en Colombia para proteger al pulmón del planeta
- Banco Central chino: Nueva criptomoneda será en cierta medida similar a la libra de Facebook
- 4 hechos para entender la crisis política en la UNAM, la universidad más grande de México
- Una falla geológica que se creía dormida podría causar un terremoto de magnitud 6,4 en Los Ángeles
- El Zoom Irán: Juego de presiones
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Chuck
Collins Tax
the Rich Before the Rest
Nicky
Reid Any
War on Terror is Bullshit
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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