ND
SEP 15 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Especulation-Investors view:
"Guys
who defended positions in the Q4 selloff all got fired, so the message is real
clear – when things start getting weird, take immediate corrective
action."
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Hedge fund 8.1% Annuity Return
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“Let’s say they give me $500mm capital to trade,” he said. “I buy $500mm
worth of stocks and sell $500mm worth, which makes me 1x leveraged,” he
explained. “Multiply that leverage across all the equity traders here, then add
all the rates traders and you find that the firm overall is 10x
leveraged.” For each
$1bln of capital, they hold $10bln of positions. The biggest player in the market is
leveraged 15x. “When you
have that kind of leverage you need to have tight stops. Which we all do. And
that’s why when it starts going wrong, you’re out.”
….
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...just symptoms of a disease that is completely beyond central bankers; declining and decelerating
growth among consumer populations that is incurable (but in truth, the disease is our inability to accept it).
Summary
- This week, the Federal Reserve added another $6 billion to their Treasury holdings and maintained their MBS holdings.
- Interestingly, Bank Excess Reserves held at the Federal Reserve continue to tumble, down by $25 billion this week.unmatched by balance sheet reductions.
- Since QE ended, Bank Excess Reserves have fallen twice that of combined Fed Treasury and MBS holdings.this difference is direct monetization.
- But all of these are just symptoms of a disease that is completely beyond central bankers; declining and decelerating growth among consumer populations that is incurable (but in truth, the disease is not the maturation of the world but our inability to accept it).
An update on the Fed's balance sheet
(Treasuries and MBS plus bank excess reserves held at the Federal Reserve.
Charted below from 2008 through this week, are Fed held Treasuries (blue line),
Fed held MBS (red line), and Bank Excess Reserves held at the Federal Reserve
(green line). As noted below, since QE ended,
bank excess reserves held at the Fed have declined more than double the decline
in the Fed's assets.
See Chart:
Since QE ended: FED held Treasury
-$0.37 T vs. FED held MBS -$0.29T vs..Bank Excess Reserves -$1.38 T
Federal Reserve held Treasuries
(blue line) versus weekly change (black column) since September of 2017.
The deceleration of QT, the pivot, and restart of Treasury purchasing is easy
to see.
See Chart:
FED Treasury Holding
Federal Reserve held MBS (mortgage
backed securities, red line) versus weekly change (black column) since
September of 2017. The Fed
has communicated that it will continue selling off MBS while purchasing
Treasuries
See Chart:
FED MBS Holding
Banks excess reserves (green line)
versus weekly change (black columns), since 2017. Will the bank excess
reserves held at the Federal Reserve continue declining now that Quantitative
Tightening is over? If so, that would be an ongoing flow of hot money.
See Chart:
Banks excess reserves
Monetization
At the onset of QE, there was an
initial mismatch of growth in the Fed's balance sheet versus bank excess
reserves held at the Federal Reserve of about $800 billion. This
mismatch remained from '08 to the end of QE in late 2014. But since the end of QE, the excess reserves have fallen
$700+ billion more than the Fed's balance sheet.
These excess
reserves have left the Federal Reserve and returned to banks as cash. If
banks still do what banks do, this $700 billion since the end of QE would be
levered anywhere from 2x to 10x in either loans or some sort of levered
purchasing. This is effectively $1.4 to $7
trillion in conjured money flowing into the economy and/or (more likely)
assets. The asset melt-up since the end of QE should not be a surprise.
See Chart:
Monetization
A constant
melt-up in asset prices flowing from ongoing monetization entering banks
hands. And if the Fed
continues cutting rates (as I suspect they will), the
lower IEOR (interest paid on excess reserves) should continue to push the remaining
$1.3 trillion excess reserves out of the Fed and into the market. So, the
worse things get, the higher asset prices will go!?!
See Chart:
Excess Reserves, Monetization &
IOER%
As long as this continues, it is hard to see how asset prices can do
much but push higher...regardless the economy or main street or trade wars or
whatever. But all this is just a symptom of a incurable disease. To
see the disease, we have to look at the macro or macro...
The Disease...A
Finite Population of Consumers Versus Economic / Financial System Premised on
Infinite Growth
Why the focus on under 65 year-olds? Income, spending,
and labor force participation are a bell curve. Household income and
expenditures more than double from early adulthood to peak earning, spending,
labor force participation from age 45 to 54 years-old. From there, everything
falls off and by age 75+, income and spending are nearly back to early
adulthood levels but labor force participation falls to just 8%.
The chart below details this in the
US, and although the dollar amounts and participation rates vary, the dynamics
are similar globally. (BTW - easiest to think of the 55 to 64 year-olds
as the go-go retirement years, the 65-74 year-olds as the slow-go retirement
years, and the 75+ year-olds entering the no-go retirement years...with commensurate
spending).
See Chart:
Annual Hosehold Income, Expenditures,
Labor Force.
Participation Rates (%) by ages
groups
OPEN the source below to see the situation in other
countries
….
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Current recession only bring laments, NO plans to go beyond neoliberal failure. The
multi-billionaires are ultra happy, they can buy the most values business with
kriptos
"While
a paucity of financial disclosure is not problematic during a bull market for
credit, it is a defining feature of a liquidity crisis during a bear
market."
====
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Trump killed farmers business with his wrong ‘diplomacy’
with China. Here 1 effect:
In the 21st century, few trends have matched the economic, environmental, and societal impact of
rapid urbanization...
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One can go back t beginning of US history: The fact is that high rates
of people moving from farms to cities happens during Tramp period of “trade
war”.
See the strait line in this map
….
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Unemployment if growing up
"That’s going to have a
big effect on the economy..."
====
At 144% market cap to GDP US
markets remains priced to perfection in an increasingly imperfect world.
No bull market without central bank intervention. That has been the game for 10 years. In 2001 and 2007 that was not enough.
Get these subtitles & read it
1. Central bank meetings. [[ Failure in US and ECB ]]
2, Bond reversal. [Bonds were historically overbought and now is the reverse]
3. Volatility compression. volatility compression into the monthly expiration has been a regular
part of the market structure
4. Trade Optimism. It vanished, Why? Because they know they
can’t agree on the big issues:
Conclusions:
1-At 144% market cap
to GDP US markets remains priced to perfection in an increasingly imperfect
world. No bull market without central bank
intervention. That has been the game for 10 years. In 2001 and 2007 that was
not enough. No bull market even with central bank intervention.
2- Recent compressed volatility could
come back with a vengeance and bull victory laps will turn into a valley
of tears. But there’s always a
silver lining in bad news.Will the new
geopolitical uncertainty be a cause for the Fed to suddenly cut by 50bp? We
will know more on Wednesday.
….
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...BUILD THE WALL?... [[ Is
that the way OR there was another agenda? ]]
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-,
D rest in limbo
Brent has
reopened for trading, and in the aftermath of Saturday's attack on the
"world's most important oil processing plant", exploded some 19%
higher, its biggest jump since
1991.
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US-Saudis lost control on OIL Prices manipulation. Higher prices benefit
Iran and Mainly VEN whose blockage by US is totally illegal. Four simultaneous missiles against US
aircraft carriers will clear the problem. It was announced &
“Guerra avisada no mata moros”, dice un viejo refran popular. So, POTUS has to clear that space asap. Four
torpedos may be used too, & at the same time. That was a gift given to VEN
for self-defense & now they need to used. RU-China + allies are alert in
case US use nuke Agst VEN. If happen, US will be hit. Trump’ announced WW3
& US will have it: 1k above Hiroshima- Nagazaki. How many US embassies
& US Comp will be burned in the South? Nadie save!
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Wishful thinking below the title: GOLDMAN
GOES "LEHMAN WEEKEND" ON OIL: EXPECTS CHAOS WHEN TRADING REOPENS
"our
expectation is for the market to trade definitively stronger with high levels
of activity from the discretionary, systematic and corporate community likely
creating a raft of opportunities."
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Trump’wishful thinking in title
& good comment below by Morgan Stanley:
"So
far, it doesn’t seem to us that any of these signals have appeared. Hence we
expect more ‘cheap talk’ than ‘real deal’. " - Morgan Stanley
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A little change in Trump’ rhetoric today.. now ‘war’ is in
?? ‘question’
"We
are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of
this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Avoiding pedofilia? Religions Around the World Introduce Robotic
‘Priests’
- ‘German
Money Kills Jews’: EU Mission in Israel Vandalized VS. Jews were
killed and their stores burned because they were making money by
price-especulation during crisis time. That is why the Nazis burned them in
“holocaust”. The neo-nazis in Israel today don’t burn the Palestianians, they
gas them with ‘perfume’.. big difference ahh
- Russian
Su-35 Jet Performs Aerobatics in the Skies Over Istanbul part in the
second Teknofest airshow scheduled for 17-22 September.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT IN ESPAÑOL
- El crudo Brent registra su mayor alza histórica tras los ataques a las refinerías sauditas de Aramco
- Trump: Estamos preparados para actuar tras los ataques a Aramco pero esperamos la verificación por parte de Riad
- "Mentiras máximas": Irán rechaza las acusaciones de EE.UU. de que Teherán realizó ataques a las refinerías sauditas
- VIDEO: La Fuerza Aérea de Pakistán publica mapas e imágenes del ataque contra la base india en Cachemira
- Trump autoriza la liberación de petróleo de la Reserva Estratégica de EE.UU. tras los ataques contra Aramco en Arabia Saudita
- Trump asegura que no está dispuesto a un encuentro "sin condiciones" entre EE.UU. e Irán
- ¿Drones submarinos y planeadores hipersónicos? China ensaya un desfile militar con sus nuevas armas cubiertas con fundas
- Israel aprueba la "legalización" de un asentamiento judío ilegal en la Cisjordania ocupada
- "Estamos listos para una guerra en toda regla": Comandante iraní dice que bases y portaviones de EE.UU. están al alcance de los misiles de Teherán
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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