ND SEP 28
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
5 words... "USE IT OR LOSE IT"
The last few weeks have seen
a dramatic surge in US
macro data surprises (to the upside),
dramatically diverging from the rest of the world (and
almost single-handedly improving the global data)...
See Chart:
This sudden surge, however, is
not a total surprise as we have noted the seasonal
patterns in US economic data previously.
So why does this pattern exist
- and why is it particularly strong in recent weeks?
Simple - as
OpenTheBooks.com details - it is a reflection of the Federal
Government's "Use-It-Or-Lose-It" Spending Spree...
In the final month of the fiscal year, federal agencies scramble to
spend what’s left in their annual budget. Agencies worry spending less than their budget allows might prompt
Congress to appropriate less money in the next fiscal year. To avoid this,
federal agencies choose to embark on an annual shopping spree rather than admit
they can operate on less.
This is the “use-it-or-lose-it” spending phenomenon, and it happens
every year.
And
that surge in spending coincides with this sudden 'surprise' burst to the
upside.
See Chart:
US
Macro Surprise Index: “Use it or Lose it”
For some context from last
year:
- In the final week of the fiscal year, federal agencies signed nearly 10 percent of all fiscal year 2018 contracts.
- Between 2015 and 2018, federal spending during the final month of the fiscal year increased by 39 percent. From 2017 to 2018, September spending increased by 16 percent.
- Contract spending in September 2018 totaled nearly $97 billion. In the final seven days of fiscal year 2018, federal agencies spent $53.3 billion – more than they spent in the entire month of August 2018 ($47 billion).
- The federal government spent $544 billion on all fiscal year 2018 contracts, but nearly 18 percent of these contracts were purchased in the final month of the fiscal year.
And, we suspect, given the
rapid surge in borrowing recently, that 2019 will be
even more dramatic on the spending side (and thus the unprecedented spike in
economic surprises)
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm18AF.jpg?itok=cmq5Y4XA
All of which begs the question:
is the only reason why the economy tends to pick up momentum
dramatically as the summer ends just a function of a surge in government spending permeating the broader
economy as agencies scramble to spend all the money they have before the end of
the September 30 Fiscal Year End (just so they get allocated the same or
greater budget in the coming fiscal year), which subsequently plunges or is
outright halted as the case may be right now?
If so, it would explain so
much, and certainly why year after year, the US economy seems to pick up in the
mid-to-late Q3 period, only to dramatically fade away
in the coming months, as government spending goes from a waterfall to a
trickle.
It would also put the
government's role in generating transitory periodic spikes in economic output
under a microscope, especially since it is so clearly staggered to recur every
September as one after another government agency spends like a drunken sailor.
And if that is the case, how long until the BLS or some
other agency (upon reopening of course) is taken to task to normalize not only
for hedonic indicators and climate-related seasonal factors, but also for what
is now clearly an annual aberration of economic output trends?
See Chart:
US
Macro Surprise Index Seasonal
Either
way, within 72 hours, this artificial stimulus will be over, and we
would not be surprised at all to see US data converge back to the weakness
indicated elsewhere. Presumably that's what the
uber-doves are hoping for.
….
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For once, European banks appear not
to be at fault.
See Chart:
Last weekend, as the overnight
funding crisis was peaking, we showed the distribution
of $1.4 trillion in Fed reserves, also known simply
as "cash", across the banks that make up the US financial system.
See Chart:
Cash
Balance at Banks vs. Total Fed Reserve Balances ($BN)
One
week later, with the dollar "plumbing" shock seemingly unclogged as
we approach quarter end, following $162BN in various term and overnight repo
operations...
See Chart:
NY FED
O/N REPO Operations
Setting aside what we don't
know - i.e., the immediate causes for the recent events and which specific
banks were the catalysts - if we had to jot down what we do know, it is that it is now widely accepted that the level of
"excess" reserves, at $1.4 trillion, is far too low for the financial
system. As a result, first
Goldman...
See Chart:
We
Expect the FED to resume trend growth of
its balance sheet in NOV
... and then JPMorgan now
predict that the Fed will need to permanently inject
billions in reserves - by way of Permanent Open Market Operations, i.e.
purchases of Treasuries, i.e. QE 4 (just don't
call it QE 4 whatever
you do) - starting some time in
November, to elevate the overall level of reserves to roughly $1.7-$1.8
trillion.
See Charts:
What this data shows is that on
a non-seasonally adjusted basis (because we care for actual data, not the Fed's
smoothed take), cash at
large domestic banks tumbled in the week ending Sept 18 by $55.3 BN to
$714.8BN, the lowest total since April 2013, while cash at small domestic banks
also dropped substantially, by $18.2BN to $272.9BN, for a combined $73.5BN drop
in total domestic bank cash (from $1086.2BN to $1,012.7BN)
In other words, to find the
culprit for the latest repo shock, don't look to Europe (those banks have
enough pain on their plate with the ECB recently launching QEternity, to also
have to worry about overnight funding in the US) but look for clues among
domestic US banks.
See
Chart:
Cash Balance at Banks vs Total
FED Reserves Balances : NSA
Notice the difference with the 1ST
above Chart
Unfortunately, since the Fed's data only goes through Sept 18, the full
analysis of bank funding heading into quarter-end will need to wait until next
Friday. Meanwhile, while we wait the question is: will the repo situation stabilize once we put September in
the rearview mirror as so many rates strategists expect will happen once
the quarter-end liquidity shortage fades, or will it
persist confirming that something is well and truly broken in the dollar
funding markets, and the Qt is what the Fed will do in response?
….
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"The ugly process of repricing risk
has begun..."
See Chart:
Mision Statement level of
bullshit vs. Stock perform for 1 year post IPO
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Stormy winds are blowing across credit markets, twisting and bending them like
the Tacoma Narrows Bridge...Greenspan got us into this mess... and there’s no dampening it. Final collapse is
inexorable..."
====
Virtually none of their original claims remain...
….
HERE A BRIEF SUMMARY:
1. The call transcript shows the topic of U.S.
treats to Ukraine, but no point does relate Trump to threats as Trump’s media critics conceded.
2. Ukrainians weren’t pressured.
3. Timeline does not apply
4. No Illicit Favors.
5. Whistleblower Complaint Lacks Credibility.
6. Fake News, Bad Polls.
7. Adam Schiff was already tweeting out
the thrust of the accusation:
8. Origins. . The Federalist reported late Friday that the
intelligence community adjusted rules related to whistleblower complaints so
that hearsay evidence could now be accepted.
9. Rudy: Rudy Giuliani was Trump’s go-to guy for actually
carrying out this conspiracy.
10. Coverup? Democrats say the White House has engaged in
a pattern of obstruction and coverup to hide their wrongdoing. But is this
true? The true is: such accusation applies more to Obama, than to Trump.
…
====
"Washington has become
a buffoonish theater of the absurd..."
See Picture:
BLOCKED
====
Pollution has had its cycles as well but this entire Global Warming
nonsense implies that it has ONLY been
post-Industrial Revolution that threatens the planet. We will all die in 12 years according to AOC: IF WW3 BREAKS UP [ The IF added to
fit the mind of AOC]
….
There’re intentional distortions in this Art against
socialists like AOC.. typical in some undergraduate students.. they don’t know nothing
about Marxist socialism & they use the name of Martin Amstrong to deliver
the stupid phobia on socialism. Perhaps only the chart below belongs to
Amstrong:
See
Chart:
Rise & Fall of Empires,
Nations & City States
….
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"The Ukrainians weren't made
aware that the assistance was being delayed/reviewed..."
====
The
Great Middle Class Exodus
On the
other hand, California’s reputation for handing out free goodies has been
a magnet for another class of
people...
See Picture:
Where they move to?: probably
the farmers to Utah, Colorado &
Arizona
====
DEMs & REPs both twins will
collapse,, they can’t swallow each other, if 1 dies 11 die
American
democracy was never very democratic, but when an entire political party disrespects truth and is determined to
gain power at all cost, we know
that the end is near...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Footage
captured a security officer
blocking Zarif's attempt to exit UN grounds, to which he's been
restricted on US orders.
====
ISR start WW3.. they’re not
afraid that dimona + bunkers below Jerusalem blows up
Crucial border compound in Western
Iraq hit after a series of similar 'mystery' airstrikes.
====
Disaster is lurking in emerging markets.
….
Nothing to lose.. all riches have been devoured by big
bankers & internat Corp. All they have to do now –if WW3 start- is to expel
foreign Comp, close US Embassies &
declare ZERO SOVEREING DEPT & nationalize their riches. SO, WW3 is the best time for
SOCIALIST REV worldwide.
====
Deterrence is good word to
place foreign nukes in front of the US
The deployment is being presented by
Lithuanian officials as proof of a
“larger, long-term US military involvement in Lithuania,” while
others say it is meant to deter
Russian aggression.
….
IF they plan to
invade RU they have to defeat thousands of mini-robots able to put down
tankers, troops, drones & helicopters crossing RU border. The rest will be
done by regular RU military apparatus.
China will do the same.
====
...the
device can identify individual
faces out of crowds of tens of thousands; Will take mass surveillance to
a new level...
….
Only for economic
purposes ah.. Look like US false-flag. .. They learn ah.
====
Turkey "not afraid" of possible US sanctions even after
the US went after Chinese shipping companies...
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-Trump Demands House Intel Chair Schiff's
Resignation Impeached empinchado
-‘I
Am Fighting For You’: Trump Posts Passionate Video Slamming Dems TRUE: both parties
are fighting to defend each other against socialists. If Potus kill dems,
thanks
-Trump
Slams 'The Squad', Nadler, Schiff as 'Democrat Savages' Amid Ongoing
Impeachment Process. Trump esta muy empinchado con ellos: muy
enojado
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- El "extremadamente poderoso" huracán Lorenzo alcanza la categoría 5 y bate el récord histórico de fuerza en una región del Atlántico
- VIDEO: Elon Musk muestra la Starship y cuenta nuevos detalles sobre esta nave que pretende llevar a la humanidad a Marte
- Canciller iraní: "EE.UU. no podrá terminar ninguna guerra que desate"
- Fallece a los 71 años el cantante mexicano José José
- US prohíbe a Zarif visitar al embajador iraní ante la ONU, ingresado por un cáncer en Nueva York, exige liberación de un prisionero
- Los hutíes afirman haber capturado a oficiales de alto rango de Arabia Saudita en la frontera con Yemen
- US registra la mayor brecha salarial en más de 50 años
- Keiser Report "Estamos ante el final de la monetarización y del neoliberalismo"
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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