miércoles, 11 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 10 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP 10  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

TIME to take US Milit OUT OF SYRIA! United they be defeated both US-al-Qaeda!
American weapons, equipment, and ammunition poured into the hands of terrorist in northern Syria. 
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

TRUMP’s re-election depends on China Deals in Oct.. if postponed, Trump is out
... And here is why it may continue.
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Can Trump stop US Econ volatility? IF not he is out of the game (Elec-include). Volatility feed big bankers & huge Corp gluttony. Our Nation don’t need them
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To those who read, and took heed of, last week's Quant Insights report by Citi, which cautioned that Price Momentum and Low Beta outperformed while Value underperformed most in August as the equity market turned to risk-off again, that Low Beta (Low Vol) had become the most crowded factor in the U.S. because of its historically high valuation and macro risk exposure, and that Short interest continues to build up in high beta stocks...
See Fig 1:
Daily Factor Performance  and Volatility 2018-2019

Before answering that question which suddenly preoccupies anyone who trades real money, Kolanovic reminds us that as discussed recently, the positioning of equity investors is near historical lows, "with global hedge fund equity beta in its 2nd percentile, and equity long-short hedge funds in its 1st percentile."
See Chart:
Hedge Founds equity Beta (HRX)   According to JP Morgan

Given record high gross and near record low net exposure, the most likely way to increase exposure is by closing shorts. This is the type of move that we saw yesterday and we think it has a lot of room to continue.
Indeed, as noted earlier, one of the main reasons for the dramatic push higher in stocks today was precisely due to a wholesale lifting of the most shorted stocks...
See Chart:
“More Shorted”  Stocks  vs Russell 2000

Besides the purely technical reasons, Kolanovic also predicts that a more sustained value and broader market rally beyond the October trade talks is "quite possible" given the recent increase of monetary and fiscal stimulus globally that typically acts with a delay, coupled with the rebound in the China credit impulse. [IF happens ]

And while manufacturing lags both, JPM now expects that in the coming months manufacturing activity will pick up "given the increased monetary stimulus, providing support for the market and value stocks." As such, "the October negotiations will be the key for future performance of equity markets and more broadly the global economy", and a favorable outcome could results in further dramatic mean reversion if the value-momentum divergence.
See Chart:
Effects of China Credit Impulse

There is another wild card why Kolanovic is "cautiously optimistic" about progress being made during trade talks, and it has to do with growing fears that the US economy is sliding into a recession, and Trump's desire to avoid being blamed for one especially with the 2020 elections just around the corner.
As JP Morgan argues, "recent voter polls indicate that 65% of US voters would blame US administration trade policies and Trump directly for market volatility, and 57% would blame Trump if the US were to enter recession."
These results were confirmed with another poll yesterday indicating similar results. A recession going into election would be politically devastating, and with the time window to the election closing, it would be reasonable to expect some progress on trade. This could give enough time for monetary and fiscal measures to turn around economic activity.
In sum, while the recent violent snapback between value and low beta/momentum stocks is unlikely to persist at the same pace, JPMorgan's head quant believes that "the value rotation can continue and the broad market could move higher IF going into October negotiations, and IF real progress is made, US will continue into a more sustained rally."
[[ Let’s see what happen.  IF China trust US & revive the neoliberal monster.. the monster may try t-chop China’ head & IF China betray world Nations bye bye China ]]
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Meanwhile: Bye Bye Bonds!
Momo traders be like...
The 'Quant Quake' has spread across the world...
Michael Krause:
The global quant reshuffle continues... Catchup moves in Asia and continuation in Europe/US. c/o Morgan Stanley
Se Graph:

And showed no signs of stopping in today's trading session...

It seems like the momentum factor reached a serious level of resistance once again...
See Chart:
Pure Momentum Total Return

And as momo collapses, Treasury yields are soaring as CTAs are forced to dump bonds...
See Chart:
30Y TSY Yield (individual)  MOMO FACTOR  ..down

And may mean that bonds have a long way to fall before this is over...
See Chart:
Dow Jones  vs.  US Generic Govt 30 Y Yield

On the day, Trannies and Small Caps surged (see short-squeeze below) as Nasdaq tumbled, only to be panic-bid back near unchanged on the day
See Charts:
NOTE - stocks melted up in the last few minutes as bond yields really spiked into the close.

XLE Energy ETF start plunging as WTI felt down
See Chart:

The late-day carnage in bonds was focused more on the short-en, sparking a bear flattener...
See Chart:
UST 3M10y Spread

WeWork bonds crashed today, erasing the post-IPO filing gains and falling back below par...
See Chart:
We Work 2025  Bond Price

The Dollar trod water for the 2nd day in a row (hovering around the lows of Trump's tariff tantrum)...
See Chart
Blommberg Dollar Index
Meanwhile, the firing of neocon NSA John Bolton coincide with  crude oil contracting...
See Chart:
Crude Oil continue contracting

Finally, while policy uncertainty has hit record highs, equity market uncertainty remains delusionally low...
See Chart:
Equity Uncertainty  vs.  Policy Uncertainty

But the yield knows better what is to come...
See Chart:
UST 2s10s (inv)  vs. VIX
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

WE don’t need the Bills from crook Billionaires. E Warren victory is undisputed!
They found that these families would have seen their net worth decline by more than half to $453.9 billion...
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In my opinion they should be expropriated  for just “tax evasion”
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The best from Trump’ thumping the neocons. We hope Trump’ finish this work
Donald Trump finally fired National Security Adviser and all-around disgraceful human being John Bolton...Good riddance.
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The worst from Trump’ crackdown the poor. We hope he rectify!

"very large delegation" of Trump administration officials were in town to discuss the matter.
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The 9/11 attacks not only killed thousands of Americans, they also led to America’s forever wars... and fortified the U.S. government as a national-security state, which solidified the destruction of the freedom of the American people.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

TIME to take US mil out of SYRIA! United they will be defeat both terror: US-al.Qaeda
American weapons, equipment, and ammunition poured into the hands of terrorist in northern Syria. 
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...a world exclusive interview with Lula, the former Brazilian president, who remains in jail, on fights with Hillary, talks with Ahmadinejad, Obama "good but nervous and too young"...
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JAPAN AND GERMANY UNITED  TO SHUT DOWN NUCLEAR POWER    GOOD! But not the Introduction in either the title or the comment below

"Any nation committed to raising the living standards and productive powers of its people cannot tolerate a de-carbonization or de-nuclearization plan for even a minute."
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President Trump famously dubbed Vestager the "tax lady" and accused the Dane back in June of 'hating the US'...
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Trump’ regime is a failure… we are losing friends worldwide. Time to .. you Kn
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Am-Lat:  Col-Ven, ¿tan sólo tambores de guerra?  Álvaro Verzi
Opin:  Humanismo urgente  Fernando Buen Abad Domínguez
FEM: Las Insurrectas   Doña Julia  Ilka Oliva Corado
Opin:  La realidad como partera  Eduardo Montes de Oca
Guatem:   Genocidio, corrupción e impunidad (II)   Kajkoj Máximo
VEN:  Por qué volvió a fracasar la oposición?  Manuel Sutherland
Europa  La barbarie europea  Renán Vega
Cuba:  Cuestión de condiciones  Miguel Alejandro Hayes
Chile:  11 de septiembre: Nuestro día D.  Ismael Llona.
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ALAI ORG

Salvador- Nicaragua   La punta del iceberg   Jorge Capelán
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

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 GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

  Republican narrowly wins US special N-C Congress Election
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