lunes, 23 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 23 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP 23  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

1-
With this threat TRUMP can go to PRISON!  And Prohibited to run for re-election

"The last thing #Millennials will see if they attempt the #area51raid today." 
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2-
ONU  in complicity with US crimes:
"We will not let you get away with this..."
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



US Services PMI Employment contracts most since 2009... but apart from that, trade-talks might or might not be going well or terribly.

This was the worst global macro data disappointment day since May and pushed it back into contraction...
See  Chart:


"Most Shorted" stocks down 5 days in a row - longest streak since March 2019...
See Chart:


Algos desperately pushed for S&P 500 to get back to 3,000...
See Chart:


Despite The Fed's Jim Bullard claiming otherwise, the UST yield curve inversion is getting worse once again..
See Chart:
UST  10Y SPREAD


Bloomberg Dollar Index dawn
See Chart:


Oil traded chaotically intraday to end unchanged after conflicting headlines about how long before Saudi production is back online (a week or eight months!)
See Chart:


Finally, the San Francisco Fed notes that, according to new market-based estimates, the probability of a return to the lower bound by the end of 2021 is about 24%. This is roughly in line with other survey-based and model-based estimates of zero lower bound risk. In recent months, the market-based measure of lower bound risk has increased markedly. And traders are increasingly betting in NIRP being here...
Wrong graphic
It doesn’t coincide with message above
THE title at the start of this article was right:
NOTHING TO SEE HERE…!
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Current estimates suggest about a one-in-four chance of short-term rates dropping back to the ZLB within three years

As a reminder, when it comes to the future of the Fed Funds rate, rarely has the market disagreed as profoundly with the Fed as it does now. To wit, as shown in the chart below, when it comes to 2021, whereas the average Fed "dot" expect a rate of 2.125%, or one hike from the current level, the market implied rate is about 100bps lower, or 1.16 according to Fed Fund Futures.

See Chart:
FOMC Members’ Dot Projections for the meeting  of 09/18/2019


Another way to show the above is in the chart below, which plots daily estimates of ZLB probabilities for a constant three-year future horizon, from January 2, 2018, to September 17, 2019 (blue line). It also shows the 3M10Y spread, a widely accepted indicator of imminent recession.

See Chart:
10Y-3m Term Spread  vs.  ZLB probability (left scale)

In short, the market is saying the odds that the Fed is wrong are soaring by the day, and not only that, it is warning that whereas the Fed's dot plot sees a rate of 2.15% by 2021, the probability of 0%, as calculated by the market, is now 24% and rising.

With that in mind, and in light of the San Fran Fed's recent "discovery" that negative rates are actually, gasp, bad, the authors' unspoken conclusion is simple: the Fed is shocked that the market is increasingly saying that it is not only trapped, but about to lose control. With that said, we eagerly look forward to what "research" papers the brain trust of San Fran Fed economists will be writing in 1 year when the Fed has not only launched NIRP but also QE.
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“The economy is already slowing down,” Rosenberg said. “Earnings are actually contracting...”
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The Fed fooled the markets...
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...after Friday's options expiration, the S&P is "unshackled"

DOWNSIDE - we see the convergence of three “accelerant flows” in the same “clustered” price-level region approx. @ 2935-2945 (although well away from current “spot”)
  • Gamma vs Spot “Flip” level at SPX Futures 2936
  • Delta vs Spot would pivot @ ~2938
  • Nomura QIS CTA model’s current deleveraging “sell trigger” estimate for the SPX futures position sitting below 2943
See Charts:
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See more interesting charts at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


President Trump deserves credit for resisting the war cries from neocons like Sen. Lindsey Graham and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after last week’s attack on two Saudi oil facilities...
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Turkey’s assistance to ISIS starts right at the top...
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Women are slowly catching up to men in median wages but growth has been pathetic across the board..
See Chart:

The most important chart was blocked
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BIDEN FULL OF CORRUPTION

"Biden scandal only beginning. Lots more evidence on Ukraine like today’s money laundering of $3 million." 
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WIth this threat TRUMP can go to PRISON!  And Prohibited to run for re-election

"The last thing #Millennials will see if they attempt the #area51raid today." 
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"Shortly before sunrise on Sept. 22, 1979, a U.S. surveillance satellite known as Vela 6911 recorded an unusual double flash as it orbited the earth above the South Atlantic"
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



"Some are not ready to be held to account for their lending"
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Trump & Saudis design the trap against IRAN
...the attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil processing facility was more than a brilliant operation, it was a trap. And, unfortunately, President Trump just fell in it...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


-NATO Agt IRAN:  Britain, France, Germany in Joint Statement Blame Iran For Attack on Saudi Aramco's Oil Facilities  They want WW3 and they will have it. MAD prevail
-They also want oil from VEN: Member Nations Vote to Activate TIAR Pact Against Venezuela  RU-Chi must give  them nuke-missils for self defense
- ‘Song About Unity’: YMCA Parody Video Features Trump, Dem Candidates Dancing  Es una unidad pegada con mocos y entre descalzos danzando sobre vidrios rotos
- Canadian Study Suggests Insecticide Caused Neurological Injury to US Diplomats in Cuba  Años de bloqueo y se quejan de que Cuba use Monsanto. Cierren el US embassy
- Los políticos del IMF: IMF Urges Turkey to Undertake More Reforms, Neutralize Economic Growth Challenges  Les encanta el USD y ser sirvientes del Imperio USA
-  Mexico’s Popocatepetl Volcano Erupts.  1ro los Trumpistas y ahora el popo se caga en Puebla.. Es tiempo de plagas .. el colmo seria que quieran anexarse  a Mex.
- Trump Says He Would Have Peace Prize If It Was 'Given Fairly'  Darle el premio nobel de la paz al guerrerista mas grande del mundo seria el colmo de la hipocresía
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION:

ECOL:  La deriva del clima   Jaime Richart
Rep Dominica:  Delincuencia y entreguismo  Lilliam Oviedo
Perú:   San Marcos, plaza de victorias   Gustavo Espinoza
BRA:  Amazonia, las llamas de la codicia  Alejandro Nadal 
BRA:  El dilema de Bolsonaro   Eric Nepomuceno
COL:  Dos insurrecciones en la tierra del cacao  Nicolás Rodríguez
España  Road to hell  Camino al infierno  Lluís Rabell
ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Manuel García, Jr.  See “Official Secrets”
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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