jueves, 5 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 4 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP  4  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


The market held the overnight gains as a procession of Fed Speakers all toed the narrative line that rate-cuts are coming and The Fed needs to watch the world when it decides on policy...
Williams (Dovish): "Ready to act as appropriate", July cut was right move, economy mixed (admitted consumer spending not a leading indicator), international news matters, low inflation biggest problem.
Kaplan (Dovish): "Monetary policy a potent force", worried about yield curve inversion, economy mixed (factories weak due to trade, consumer strong), watching for "psychological effects" on consumers, "if you wait for consumer weakness, it might be too late."
Kashkari (Dovish): Tariffs, "trade war are really concerning business", job market not overheating, slower global growth will impact US, most concerned about inverted yield curve. Fed's policy is "moderately contractionary."
Bullard/Bowman (Looked Dovish): Took part in "Fed Listens" conference but made no comment on policy but then again when has Jim Bullard ever not been dovish.
Beige Book (Mixed): Moderate expansion but trade fears are mounting, but optimism remains, despite what Kashkari says:"although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook"
Evans (Dovish): Trade policy increases uncertainty and immigration restrictions lower trend growth to 1.5%, Auto industry especially challenged

And the market is now pricing in a stunning 124bps of cuts through the end of 2020...
See Chart:

With an increasing number of traders betting on US rates going negative before the end of 2021...
See Chart:

It is clear that US equities are only supported by The Fed now as a trade deal is almost entirely priced out...
See Chart:
DOW  vs.  ODDS of a Trade Deal

Most Shorted stocks massively squeezed at the open and ramped after Europe closed to get back to unch on the week...
See Chart:

THE YIELD CURVE REMAINS DRAMATICALLY INVERTED...
See Chart:

The Bloomberg dollar index plunged today - 2nd biggest drop in 2019...
See Chart:

Yuan surged for the second day, back up to last Friday's highs...
See Chart:

Finally, some fun charts for your consideration.
CapEx is collapsing, Deutsche: “We are getting more and more worried about the impact of the trade war on capex spending”...

See Chart:
Capex starting slowing down in 2018H2:  Manufacturers New Orders

Global Manufacturing is a bloodbath...
Four Charts:

And, as earnings expectations have collapsed this year, only global liquidity has saved stocks (but even that is diverging now)...
See Chart:

And doesn't look likely to improve anytime soon...
Two Charts:
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In coming quarters a policy mistake (inflation targeting/MMT) and/or the start of policy impotence, will likely cause a jump in interest rate volatility, end the decade-long bullish combo of Minimum Rates-Maximum Profits, signal the Big Top in asset prices.
SEE Chart:
Interest Rates since 300BC

Demographics: US labor force growth leads US inflation and set to remain very low in coming years; in Japan/Russia/Southern Europe working population will contract by 20 million by 2025.
Meanwhile, Deflation has delivered a non-stop liquidity bubble...
See Chart:

…extreme wealth inequality…
See Chart:
US assets prices & US labor force participation rate since 1978
…and Wall St still "too big to fail"
See Chart:
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We hope Trump mute his tweets & threats on China, otherwise the fall will be death
Futures soared after China announced that top trade negotiators will travel to Washington in early October for talks with U.S. counterparts, to resume negotiations to resolve their trade war
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IF China didn’t make such agreement & is a nasty T-trick we’ll pay its effects
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With this “negotiation plan” we won’t get nothing. Better to change Trump

"Let me tell you, if I wanted to do nothing with China, my stock market, our stock market, would be 10,000 points higher than it is right now. But somebody had to do this."
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"It’s pointless following him too closely -- he might say something today and it will be a whole different story tomorrow."
SO FAR not trust on Trump and IT STAND TO REASON
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

He has to save the bunkers below Jerusalem where big printers of USD are located
Trump's other wall..
….
No es el amor al chancho sino a los chicharrones
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GM is expected to lead the negotiations, which are being called "the most contentious in at least a decade"... 
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They  must create a big united UNION too
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 He cannot lie to  our Nation + Silence them = FASCISM = not vote him = time f REV

Missed by those who view consumption as the driver of growth is that we all have theoretically infinite desires to consume that are logically only limited by our individual ability to produce...
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When “disinformation” is redefined to include all potentially polarizing stories that don’t conform to the establishment narrative, reality is discarded as so much fake news and replaced with Pentagon-approved pablum...
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...means that a tremendous amount of pain is ahead, and the American people are completely unprepared for that.
….
IF China don’t trust Trump’words & we don’t trust him either: this is the time for him to resign, OR for the Supreme Court to demand his resignation and prepare a temp Gvt + immediate call for election with 3er option included. It means that 35% of Poli Power go to 3rd mayor voting party regardless the N. of votes obtained. That is the only way to go beyond the obsolete duo-poly system we have and the best chance to assure transition to Peace Developmt
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Schumer is predictably pissed...
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BOTH the military budget and this one are waste of NATION’ money. The 1st is based on misreading the Keynesian Economics : Gvt expensing should foster the growth of GDP , not drained. And the 2nd is based on anti-latino racism full of family & kids abuses.
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“It’s okay to be happy, even celebrate, when bad ‘transphobic’ people die...”
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IBD/TIPP was considered one of the more accurate polls during the 2016 US election...
….
Most people like E Warren as Presid & Tulsi Gabbard as VP.  And of course we want Dem-Socialists  as 3rd option party. It is time to remove the wolves & Haines in power and install the creativity & intelligence of FOXEs inside.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


...the staggered 25-year deal could mark seismic shift in the global hydrocarbons sector...
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"The US and Russia have them. Every developed nation has them."
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We all don’t need nukes… should be his right policy
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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 NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Econ: La bomba de racimo del brexit  Bernard Cassen 
BRA:  la reconquista de Brasil  Karen Méndez y Lorena Freitez
España   Maldición   Jaime Richart
COL:  FARC de la rosa y FARC del fusil  Geraldina Colotti
COL:  Estaba cantado  Lisandro Duque
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Israel's Many Wars  By Philip Giraldi
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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 DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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 PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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