ND
AUG 31 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graps
The worst
case scenario would be if the market meets the Fed's efforts at easing
restraint by an even deeper inversion of the yield curve. This would be immediately read as another
"policy error" reaction.
For equity markets, August was the most violent month of
2019, with the S&P tumbling 2.6% or more on at least three occasions, the
same as the number of instances when the Dow plunged almost 1000 points - the
worst since Q4 of 2018 when the S&P briefly entered a bear market - only to
rebound furiously after Mnuchin's infamous Christmas Eve phone call. Worse, in August the number of days when the S&P moved up
or down by more than 1% was the highest since the February 2018 inverse VIX ETN
implosion.
See Chart:
Days when stocks move up-down more
than 1% was higher since Feb 2018
Yet despite all the vomit-inducing day-to-day surges and
drops, anyone who took a month-long vacation would hardly believe what had
happened: from the first day of the month, to the last,
shares had one of their smallest monthly moves of the year: down just 1.8% on
the S&P 500, only July had a smaller monthly amplitude.
See Chart:
S&P monthly % Change
As the rates strategist admits, "we’re left in an environment of
twitter and state-owned media dictating US rates."
Which brings us to the punchline, namely that the
ever-expanding list of worries keeping BMO up at night "now includes an attempt by the Fed to
moderate expectations for easing beyond 1.63% (i.e. two additional
quarter-point cuts)."
Needless to say, the market - which is pricing in almost
5 rate cuts by Dec 2020, will not be happy by any unexpected Fed hawkishness.
See Chart:
Number of Expected rate cuts by Dec
2020
In the event it’s 75 bp (total) and done, the BMO rates
analysts claim that the reaction of the longer-end of the curve will be
particularly telling as to investors’ perception of the risks of an actual US
recession in 2020. A
bearish resteepening will be a vote of confidence for Fed credibility and would
be predicated on the domestic data continuing to reflect tight labor conditions
and inflation that’s trending higher.
By induction, the worst case scenario would be if the
petulant market meets the Committee’s efforts at easing restraint by an even
deeper inversion of the yield curve, presumably in a bullish outright move for
10s and 30s. This would
be immediately read as another "policy error" reaction, and is the outcome which troubles BMO the most
"insofar as it would effectively lock the Fed into even lower policy rates
and exacerbate the global race to zero rates." This, as Lyngen
concludes, is a very long way of saying that
"Trump can only trump data so long."
….
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Another recession warning has surfaced. The wealthier Americans
have cut back on their consumerism
and spending, which could be a signal that the recession is right around
the corner...
Many economists and analysts have said that the backbone of
the American economy is the consumer. But
according to CNBC, the wealthiest
consumers have cut their spending while the middle class
continues. The rich have
cut their spending on everything from homes to jewelry and those personal
spending cuts are sparking fears of a “trickle-down recession.”
According to Redfin, sales of homes priced at $1.5
million or more fell 5% in the United States in the second quarter. Unsold mansions and penthouses
are piling up across the country, especially in ritzy resort towns, with a
nearly three-year supply of luxury listings in Aspen, Colorado, and the
Hamptons in New York. The top income earners have
cut back, either in preparation(to save more) or out of non-necessity, and
perhaps it’s time others take notice.
The top
10% of earners account for nearly half of all consumer outlays, according
to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The
savings of the rich has also exploded, more than doubling over the past two
years, suggesting that the wealthy are hoarding cash.This is why they
are wealthy and will remain so long after a recession.
The middle earners, or those in the 40% to 89.9% of the
income distribution, have largely picked up the spending slack from the rich,
whether they could afford to or not. “If job
growth slows any further, unemployment will begin to rise, (the middle earners)
will pack it in, resulting in an economic downturn,” Zandi
said.
….
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"Instead of central banks stabilising the system by monetary
easing, the easing itself will
guarantee the crisis...we are seeing the start of the dismantling of the dollar-based monetary
system..."
The reason for persistent strength in the price of gold can be found in
the changing relationship between time preference for monetary gold, and a new
round of interest rate suppression for the dollar. Evidence
mounts that the forthcoming recession is likely to be significant, even turning
into a deep slump. Bullion bank traders are waking up to the possibility that
dollar interest rates are going to zero and that pressure is likely to be put
on the Fed to introduce negative rates. The laws of time preference tell us bullion banks must urgently cover
their short bullion positions in anticipation of a dollar rate-induced
permanent backwardation for gold, silver and across all commodities.
CHECK THESE SUBTITLES:
Introduction
Interest and time
preference
Negative
interest rates create permanent backwardations
Negative dollar
interest rates and gold
THE
CONSEQUENCES:
Here two last
paragraphs
With all other fiat currencies referenced to the dollar, it will mark the
start of a process that is likely to collapse the entire fiat currency
system. Bullion banks which
are too slow to recognise the change and have not shut down their gold
obligations will be forced to steal their customers allocated gold, or go to
the wall, adding to the disruption. All commodity derivatives will face a
period of rapid contraction of open interest, in lockstep or one pace behind
those of gold.
Instead of central banks stabilising the system by monetary easing, the
easing itself will guarantee the crisis. The development of a problem in gold markets, driving the gold price
rapidly higher while some banks are caught napping, is likely to anticipate a
wider financial and systemic crisis. Therefore, with
gold’s sudden move higher coupled with its persistent strength we can
reasonably certain that we are seeing the start of the dismantling of the
dollar-based monetary system, and that gold has much further to go.
SOURCE:
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Bull and bear are entering the Thunderdome in September and October and only one will emerge victoriously...
It’s a time of extreme uncertainty and before you accuse me
of saying markets can either go up or down I will
really depends on how these developments shake out. I’m not a fortune
teller, I’m a realist and I analyze technical structures in context of a
complex macro picture.
Meanwhile think about the Qt below:
Sven Henrich:
"What would you do if you were stuck in one place and
every day was exactly the same, and nothing that you did mattered?"
Check the answer by:
— Phil Connors (Bill Murray), Groundhog Day:
— Phil Connors (Bill Murray), Groundhog Day:
See it at the
source below:
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption.
Socialists under attack: the panic of losing re-election
growths-up
1-
...the rise of Elizabeth Warren
gives the billionaires a ‘progressive’ candidate who might either win the
nomination or else at least split progressive voters during the primaries (between
Sanders and Warren) and thus give the nomination to Buttigieg, who is
their first choice...
====
2-
"Unfortunately, the young socialists are
uninterested in truths. Not when the goal of hard work and paying one’s way
in life has been reduced to a game for
suckers. Not when apathy and a life on the dole is filled with
such hollow promise."
====
3-
AOC
CLAIM THAT MILLENNIALS "MOST INFORMED, HISTORICALLY-LITERATE"
ANNIHILATED IN SCATHING OP-ED Look like propaganda for AOC.. in fact: it s
"Absurd To The Point
Of Hilarity"
====
Like this:
...central bankers and mainstream
Economists... are outright hostile to gold (as bonds). They really
dislike markets which have the potential to tell the world how much
they’ve screwed up...
….
No way to buy it and save USD.. the dolar is lost!
See Chart 1:
Inflation:
CPI and Gold
It isn’t Fed action which is moving the gold price, though. It is
the lack of effect in all central bank actions which is
bothering more than just gold hedgers.
See Chart 2
US
Treasury REAL YIELS
In
politics is the same: REALITY is killing Trump’ chances for re-election
See more interesting
charts at:
….
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We’re reaching levels of propaganda
never before thought possible...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-,rest in limbo
Says he's
doing everything he can to "defend Israel" from Iran, including
"in Iraq".
….
This is why ISR is in top-list of
rid-off from the Map if WW3 starts
====
The U.S. State Department is working to
disrupt what it sees as the vessel’s Syrian plan, according to a U.S. official:
WSJ
====
You won’t find any shallow
hash tags at the former concentration camp, just quiet, powerful
reality...
….
It is not god-devil hand on hand.. we humans did it & plan to do it
again
====
Adding RAND's figures together from 2006 to 2016 would mean total spending on illegal drugs over the
course of the decade was nearly $1.5 trillion...
….
It happens with the complicity of DEA & top US-lords in
Afghanist’popi and of course with the complicity of the big Pharma.. The rest
was created by the context of wars & violence we promote world-wide.
TO See
Chart:
….
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Putin, by
working with the SAA, finally forced
Erdogan to choose what’s more important: his relationship
with the U.S. or that with Russia and China, who are currently
supporting his economically-challenged regime.
====
Our mission is to save our Saudi allies in Al Qaeda even by
bombing them
Unprecedented, given repeat US
condemnations of similar Russian and Syrian aerial bombardment of Idlib
province.
====
“Me & Nahid 1 right now. Good Morning Donald Trump!” tweeted the Iranian minister.
….
La distorsión mediática no le funciona a Trump
====
"BRICS was not
created to be an instrument of defense, but to be an instrument of
attack. So we could create our own
currency to become independent from the US dollar in our trade relations..."
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Washington
'Most Likely Will' Introduce Sanctions Against Nord Stream 2 - US Energy
Secretary
Oil competition must be based on Peace not on Terror +piracy
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- VIDEO: El momento en que la Policía abate al autor del tiroteo masivo en Texas
- "Buenos días, Donald Trump": Irán muestra el satélite intacto tras la explosión en una plataforma de lanzamiento
- Caracas presenta "pruebas de atentados terroristas" contra Venezuela planeados desde Colombia
- Todo lo que se sabe sobre el tiroteo que dejó 5 muertos y 21 heridos en Texas
- MX: El volcán Popocatépetl registra 6 explosiones en 24 horas
- El "extremadamente peligroso" huracán Dorian cambia de rumbo
- Keiser Report "Insurrección mundial": la nueva era del oro y el bitcóin y la rebelión contra el dinero fíat y los bancos
- Quiénes son los "comisionados" nombrados por Guaidó para "impulsar el cese de la usurpación" en Venezuela?
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
- Israel torturing non-Jewish children. Australian
doc film. Viewer discretion.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Melvin Goodman The
Great Cost and Myth of U.S. Defense Spending
Paul Street Real
News or Fake News?
Nick Pemberton Karl
Marx and Religion
Evaggelos Vallianatos The Amazon
Inferno
Joseph Natoli A Voting
Calculus
Ron Jacobs Beyond Protest
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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