martes, 17 de septiembre de 2019

ND SEP 17 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  SEP 17  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



While it is being ignored by most (because the S&P didn't crash), the chaos in the Fed-controlled short-term liquidity markets should panic everyone as for the first time in a decade, NYFRB was forced to inject liquidity for o/n repo...
See Chart:
Effective FED found rate IOER This not suppose to happen!


Repo rates kept rising despite the Fed's operation...


And before we move on to the rest of the markets, let's put today's repo chaos in context. As Monday Morning Macro notes, Here are a few “large” moves that markets have seen over the past few weeks. Notice anything that stands out?
See Chart:


NOTE - the ramp was all about getting the S&P and Nasdaq and Small Caps back to even on the week

Energy stocks erased a big chunk of yesterday's gains as oil prices slipped back lower...
See Chart:


Bank stocks rolled over after 8 straight days higher...
See Chart:
  

"Most Shorted" stocks tumbled at the open - no squeeze today - but bounced after Europe closed...
See Chart:


Treasury yields extended their decline today with 30Y now down over 10bps since Friday's close
See Chart:


Meanwhile, WeWork 2025 bonds price crashed...
See Chart:


The Dollar Index puked pretty hard today, erasing all of yesterday's gains... felt
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index


Finally: Prepare yourself for higher pump prices...
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SOURCE
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The first shot toward QE4 was just fired.

Update 4: It's over: after a torrid 30 minutes in which the NY Fed first announced a repo operation, then announced the repo was canceled due to technical difficulties, then mysterious the difficulties went away just minutes later, at precisely 10:10am, the Fed concluded its first repo operation in a decade, which while not topping out at the $75 billion max, was nonetheless a significant $53.15 billion, split as follows:
  • $40.85BN with TSYs as collateral at a 2.1% stop out rate
  • $0.6BN with Agencies as collateral at a 3.0% stop out rate
  • $11.7BN with Mortgage-backed securities as collateral at a 2.1% stop out rate.
See Chart:

1. Old school funding pressure lessons: repos & outrights
Pre-crisis the Fed relied on two types of open market operations to manage funding markets and their balance sheet: (1) temporary repo or reverse repo operations (2) outright UST purchases. Repo operations were used to "fine tune" the amount of reserves in the banking system to hit the fed funds target rate while outright UST purchases were used to offset currency in circulation growth. As a reminder, currency growth - of which we have seen a dramatic increase in recent years as the amount of $100 bills in circulation has soared - eats away at reserves in the banking system; this would pressure fed funds higher if the Fed did not growth their balance sheet to offset this (Exhibit 1).

See Exhibit 1
FED must increase assets on balance sheet to offset  currency growth


Temporary repo operations were executed in the tri-party market and were conducted only with primary dealers. Historically, repos were
  1. multiple price and fixed amount
  2. announced only at the outset of the open market operation
  3. executed across Treasury, agency debt, & agency MBS collateral types (Chart 1).

The Fed provides data on repo operations starting in July 2000. An increase in Fed repo operations corresponds to a similar increase in reserves, all else equal (Exhibit 1).
See Chart:
REPO accepted , monthly by collateral time ($bill)

Temporary repo operations were executed in the tri-party market and were conducted only with primary dealers. Historically, repos were
  1. multiple price and fixed amount
  2. announced only at the outset of the open market operation
  3. executed across Treasury, agency debt, & agency MBS collateral types (Chart 1).

According to Barclays to address the expected increase in fed funds volatility, the Fed, having ended the balance sheet runoff this summer instead of waiting until September, could create a standing repo facility - something which has been rumored for months - or conduct standard open market operations, injecting even more liquidity into the system.

But as we noted earlier, the problem for the Fed is that following today's massive move in repo higher, it now appears that the Fed is once again behind the curve, and this time the funding squeeze could have dire consequences for not only the economy but the market, as the broken repo plumbing means that despite $1.4 trillion in excess reserves, one or more banks are suddenly left without liquidity, which as we explained over a month ago in "Forget China, The Fed Has A Much Bigger Problem On Its Hands", the only alternative Powell may soon have is to restart QE.
Fun week so far:
  • Monday: biggest ever surge in oil
  • Tuesday: biggest ever surge in GC repo
But stocks are near record highs, because... The Fed.
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S&P also predicts there will be "no growth" throughout 2020 and 2021. 
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The global manufacturing downturn is likely to persist through 1H20...
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The "everything bubble" is not permanent.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


...but Trump’s firing of Bolton will hopefully represent a new purge of war mongering sociopaths while opening the door to a new foreign policy doctrine.
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If people no longer trust the political/media class, they can’t be propagandized. Without the ability to propagandize the masses, the empire collapses...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Talk of war between the two powerful countries isn’t anything new, and anyone who is paying attention knows that such a war would be devastating for much of the world...
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With the U.S, Russia, and China all jostling for position in Iraq’s oil and gas industry both north and south, Iraq’s oil ministry last week reiterated its desire to have one or more foreign partners in the Mansuriya gas field.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
Machismo & Terror:  “Losers” (Perdedores)  Miguel Lorente
Opin:  Abrir la sociología al mundo   Stéphane Dufoix y Sari Hanafi
ALC:  Las fronteras urbanas  Carolina Vásquez
Perú   Sin sombra de vergüenza  Gustavo Espinoza
Mund:  ¿Un nuevo eje militar? Rusia-China  Alberto Piris
MX:  México firme contra la injerencia  Cristóbal León
España   La pastillita azul   Guillem Martínez
US:  Ahora contra los migrantes legales  Jorge Santibáñez
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Armageddon on the Horizon?   By Paul Craig Roberts
- Our Invisible Government   By Chris Hedges
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Alejandro Sanchez  Inside the Syrian Peace Talks
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GLOBAL RESEARCH

Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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