ND
SEP 22 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
Insólito
: el colmo de burla a Leyes Internacionales. A
cambiar UN cede immediately
-US Denies Visas to Iranian Delegation for
Trip to UN General Assembly - Iran's Presidential Office BOICOT UN ASSEMBLY IF IRAN IS EXCLUDED + Collect
signatures
….
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
And this is how big it will be. MUST READ!
One of the reasons for the sharply hawkish initial response
to Wedensday's FOMC meeting - one which saw both the dollar and yields spike -
is that as we pointed
out just before Powell's statement, in the hours ahead of Powell's press
conference, Wall Street consensus quickly shifted with
many expecting the Fed to announce some form of permanent repo facility or
restart of POMO (or QE for those who call a spade a spade) to push reserves back to a level where the funding market is
stable. This, as we showed with the following chart, would require some $400 billion in
new reserves for the FF-IOER spread to normalize.
See Chart 1
Cnaging
dynamics in reserve demand
However, and the reason why stocks shot up just before 3pm
ET on Wednesday, is that that's when Powell added that “it’s possible that
we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet, earlier than we
thought. ... We’ll be looking at this carefully in coming days and taking it up
at the next meeting” in late October. Said otherwise, while the Fed may not
have announced QE4 yesterday, but it will likely
announce it in the very near future.
See Chart:
FOMC Stat: is possible to resume
organic growth of balance sheet sooner
And while the Fed also moved to broadly expand its balance
sheet late on Friday by preannouncing continued daily open market repo
operations, together with at least three, $30 billion term repos to ease
funding conditions around quarter end, which confirms that the rebound in the
Fed's balance sheet - the first in almost five years -
is anything but temporary...
See Chart:
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Goldman,
and then Simon Potter, the former
head of the NY Fed's market desk, signaled that the Fed will have to buy
more debt, potentially as early
as November.
As a reminder, Goldman
now assumes a roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, enough to support trend growth of the
balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase
the size of the balance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current
need for temporary [P]OMOs.
See Chart:
We expect the FED resume Trend Growth of Balan Sheet in Nov
Which addresses the question that everyone has been quietly
asking: if the current level of reserves, at roughly
$1.4 trillion as broken out by bank cash levels which
we discussed last night, is too low...
See Chart:
Cash Balance at Banks vs. Total FED Reserve Balance
[ It seems we are going to ‘a
la merda’: no to sheet-balance-growth BUT to ‘cheet Bal’]
One more Chart to confirm it:
In other words, and as the chart at the top showed, "the steeper
this sensitivity, the more the tightening in liquidity conditions."
See Figure 3:
One final observation: the
ratio of reserves to banking system assets has collapsed over the past five
years to its lowest level since the end of 2009 i.e. a ten year low... although
of course, prior to that
it was 0% so this is only a financial crisis artifact, in large part sprung by
changes to the regulatory regime demanding banks hold on to much more reserves.
See Chart 7
FED reserve balance
as % of US Banking System assets
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/reserves%20as%20%25%20of%20assets.jpg?itok=B7WFf2vW
….
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"One
possible way to defer this clash involves the oldest trick in the book. And
that is more money for everyone; for the GND, for Medicare, Medicaid, Soc Sec,
tax cuts. Enter MMT."
====
“We do not know, but we do know what we know, and
we know that current investor
behavior is unsustainable...”
For the bulls, the good news is, they will cut
rates anyway.”
“All the bulls need now is the Fed to ‘cut’ rates at the meeting
next week.”
This is probably a mistaken
conclusion.
To illustrate this point, the chart below shows excess reserves, required deposits, and currency in
circulation. As you can see, everything went “pear-shaped” in
2008
See Chart:
Balance sheet growth overtime based
on growth of Economy
However, let’s zoom in a bit and add
the Federal Reserves balance sheet. Prior to 2008, notice the Fed’s balance
sheet was growing directly proportionate to the growth rate of the currency in
circulation (which follows the growth rate of the economy.)
See Chart:
Economy growth: normal financial
period vs abnormal financial period
Therefore,
what the Fed is suggesting is NOT more Q.E. but rather, just the normal “organic” expansion
of the balance sheet in relation to the growth of the economy and the currency
in circulation.
BUT, Bulls Remain In Charge
The question we posed last week was:
“Is it all priced in?”
The risk/reward does not favor the bulls short term. The
market is back to very overbought conditions, the upside to the top of the
bullish trend channel is about 1.9%. The downside risk is about 5.5%.
(Chart updated through Friday. Shows the overbought condition
as been slightly reduced.)
See Chart:
$SPX
S&P 500 Large Cap Index
However, on an intermediate-term
basis, all of our primary indicators are beginning to reach levels which have
typically denoted short-term market peaks.
See Chart:
We discussed the reasoning for an
additional hedge with our RIAPRO subscribers this week:
See Chart:
The debate continue & you can see more charts at:
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The population at large has come to believe it
can get something for nothing – including free
food, free drugs, free retirement, and free money – via the ‘power of the
purse’... Voters
couldn’t be more wrong.
An Odd Combination
of Serenity and Panic
The United States, with untroubled ease, continued its
approach toward catastrophe this week. The
Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate 25 basis points, thus furthering its
program of mass money debasement. Yet, on the surface, all still remained
in the superlative.
See Chart:
SPX , WEEKLY
Zero
Hedge documented the chaos real time.
This was followed up with additional
repo operations on Wednesday and Thursday – at $75 billion a pop, and
both oversubscribed. Perhaps Fed repo operations will be a daily
occurrence, at least until the Fed launches QE4
See Chart:
US overnight REPO rate
US overnight repo
rate – as Fed chair Jerome Powell remarked: “Funding pressures in money markets
are elevated this week”. Evidently, nothing escapes his eagle eyes. [PT]
At the same time, the effective federal funds rate – the
upper range limit of the federal funds rate – continues to push above the rate
the Federal Reserve pays on excess reserves (IOER). In other words, the Fed’s primary tool for price fixing
credit markets is not behaving according to plan. Greater Fed
intervention will be needed to keep things in line.
See sarcasm in cartoon:
Voters
couldn’t be more wrong. Deficits do matter
The U.S. budget deficit has already topped $1
trillion for the first time since 2012, and there is still one month
in the fiscal year to go. When the economy slips into reverse deficits
could easily jump to $2 trillion. Interest rates could also slip and
slide even lower, perhaps into negative, like in much of Europe and Japan.
Failure of the debt based fiat money
system is at stake. The Fed will do everything it can to keep it
alive. It will keep at it, debasing the dollar around the clock, until
the precise moment it cannibalizes itself.
Holding some gold – or silver –
at this juncture is of supreme importance.
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"The
question is: Do we have a right to know when the government is collecting
information on us?"
====
Artificial Intelligence, programmed by power hungry
individuals, is steadily taking
over our society...
….
Whatever they do to deceit the Nation –lies +cover-up- we’l l know the
truth
====
The report concludes by warning Hawaii doesn't have countercyclical buffers in place to
weather an economic downturn...
====
For you to be real
anarchist you must say: Imperial State is a parasite
to world society
"The State is a dead hand
that imposes itself on society, mainly benefitting those who control it,
and their cronies. It shouldn’t be
reformed; it should be abolished. That belief makes me, of course,
an anarchist..."
====
In a country of FRAUDS everybody can be assaulted legally
& illegally
A scathing
report has revealed the DMV offices across the country have been selling out American citizens, while
making millions doing it...
====
The crasher? Math.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Who said that NED (CIA disguise) is inefficient.. Now they
show they can use terrorism
"A
group of protesters in the centre of Sha Tin's New Town Plaza have taken a
Chinese flag and are walking over it and dragging it across the bottom floor of
the mall..."
…..
What China can do –besides closing
US embassy- concede to US trade deal? IF tit for tat, what will be the most
appropriate to not disrupt global context?
====
IF Saudis promote WW3 they won’t have oil nor riches in
London’ banks, not even Stat
That it may take "up to eight month",
rather than 10 weeks company executives had previously promised, to
fully restore operations at Aramco damaged Abqaiq facility, which could send
Brent up to $10 higher.
====
Flipping
futures in Brazil is a horrible career choice.
====
Soon they will be invaded & lead by French policy then
the ‘yellow’ vest will ch color
The Yellow
Vest movement is now in its 10th
month.
…
Nothing serious, just satira: Police is nor well paid there: they may dress
Yello
====
Coming from Trump nothing is insane, he is saint:
anything he does is just normality
For all the standard neocon alarmism of the Trump team, Iran’s conventional military power is
actually quite limited, especially in comparison with the United
States’.
====
September's
data is a major red flag for the global economy's accelerating downturn.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE:
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A
combination of Saudi
comments on the length of time repairs to their key refinery will take and Chinese comments talking down Friday's canceled
farm-land trip have sparked a bid for stocks, yuan, and crude in early trading
Sunday night.
….
We can say: China is in severe
Econ-crash-now. FACT: they don’t need US help
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
Insolito
: el colmo de burla a Leyes Internacionales. A cambiar UN cede immediately
-US Denies Visas to Iranian Delegation for
Trip to UN General Assembly - Iran's Presidential Office BOICOT UN ASSEMBLY IF IRAN IS EXCLUDED
+ Collect signatures
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Exalcalde colombiano vinculado al traslado de Guaidó desde Venezuela está condenado por corrupción
- Pompeo: "El ataque contra refinerías sauditas fue un acto de guerra"
- Gigante turístico británico colapsa y deja a la deriva a cientos de miles de clientes que están de viaje
- Cinco barrios de América Latina, entre los más 'cool' del mundo
- La tormenta tropical Karen avanza hacia Puerto Rico y obliga a desviar varios vuelos en Venezuela
- Irán presenta nueva ojiva para misil balístico de 2.000 kilómetros de alcance
- Phone La nueva función ya disponible de WhatsApp
- Arabia Saudi: Si el ataque contra las refinerías provino de Irán, "sería considerado como acto de guerra" 1ro dijeron que no hay evid de ello, ahora juegan a la guerra US sabiendo que pueden ser borrados del mapa
- "No es tan difícil": Candidato del partido de Trump quiere anexionar México para solventar la crisis migratoria
- Cuba: 4.300 millones de dólares los daños del bloqueo de EE.UU. en un año
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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