JUL 19 16 SIT EC
y POL
….
THERE WILL BE MORE BIG Rev & a GREAT REV is COMING
All we need now is stop
the bomb-heads Clinton-Trump
WE HAVE TO STOP WW3 ALREADY FOSTERED BY THEM
THEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PACIFIC REV OF ALL TIMES
WITHOUT THE RITUALS
OF GANDHI ‘S SACRIFICES IN INDIA.
WE WILL HAVE A DECENT LADY NOT A CROOK WOMAN IN POWER
WE’ ve to get OUT
from THE TRAP of lesser evil & VOTE JIL STEIN
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
Is 'Peak Oil' dead and buried forever, or is it lurking in the shadows,
waiting to derail the global economy again?
….
Another major spike
in oil price seems plausible and this could perhaps destabilise certain
economies, banks and currencies. Should this occur, another price collapse will
follow, and it’s not clear that production will ever recover to the July 2015
peak. Much will depend upon the future of the US shale industry and whether or
not drilling for shale oil and gas gains traction in other countries.
Figure 7 The
chart shows in blue global total liquids production (C+C+NGL+refinery
gains+biofuels) according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA). The near term
peak was 97.08 Mbpd in July 2015. The decline since then, excluding the Fort
McMurray wild fire impact, is of the order 2% per annum. In the current low
price environment, it is difficult to see anything arresting this decline
before the end of next year. In fact, decline may accelerate and go on beyond
the end of 2017. The dashed line shows the demand trajectory and scheduled
balancing of supply and demand by the end of this year. By the end of next year
the supply deficit could be of the order 3 Mbpd which on an annualised basis
would result in a stock draw of 1.1 billion barrels. But remember,
forecasts are ten a penny
Concluding Thoughts
- M. King Hubbert’s forecast for US oil production and the methodology it was based on has been proven to be sound when applied to conventional oil pools in the USA. When decline takes hold in any basin or province, it is extremely difficult to reverse even with a period of sustained high price and the best seismic imaging and drilling technology in the world.
- On this basis we can surmise that global conventional oil production will peak one day with unpredictable consequences for the global economy and humanity. It is just possible that the near term peak in production of 97.08 Mbpd in July 2015 may turn out to be the all-time high.
- Economists who argued that scarcity would lead to higher price that in turn would lead to higher drilling activity and innovation have also been proven to be correct. Much will depend upon Man’s ability to continue to innovate and to reduce the cost of drilling for LTO in order to turn a profit at today’s price levels. If the shale industry is unable to turn a profit then it will surely perish without State intervention in the market.
- But from 2008 to 2015, oil production actually fell in 27 of 54 countries despite record high price. Thus, while peak oil critics have been proven right in North America they have been proven wrong in half of the World’s producing countries.
- Should the shale industry perish, then it becomes highly likely that Mankind will face severe liquid fuel shortages in the years ahead. The future will then depend upon substitution and our ability to innovate within other areas of the energy sector.
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CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY SLUMPS TO MULTI-YEAR LOWS: GALLUP
One place which fails
to corroborate the narrative of a "recovering economy" are the
monthly Gallup surveys, and especially the most recent one released earlier today.
At -17, this reading is tied for the
worst economic confidence reading recorded in the last few years, and suggests
that Americans' take on the economy is getting worse, not better.
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For those who are
curious what modern-day, runaway hyperinflation looks like, here is the IMF's
forecast of Venezuela's inflation over the next three years.
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Now it’s $13 trillion... the total sum of negative-yielding debt in the world has increased in
the last sixteen days alone by an amount that’s larger than the entire GDP of
Russia. And just like the build-up to
the 2008 subprime crisis, investors are snapping up today’s subprime bonds with
frightening enthusiasm. So this trend will continue to grow for now,
until, just like in 2008, the bubble
bursts in cataclysmic fashion.
Now it’s $13 trillion.
That’s the total amount of government bonds in the world
that have negative yields, according
to calculations published last week by Bank of America Merrill Lync
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A strange paradox
emerges when flipping though the latest BofA Fund Managers' Survey: with the
S&P trading at all time highs, investor
buying of protection against sharp decline in stock market at record high,
something which would not be happening if the market was "normal" and
if traders expected a continuation of the recent upward trend in stocks.
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POLITICS
If Trump really does try to
wipe ISIS out – or drastically reduce the power of NATO – will he be
risking his own health and well-being? The US is run by corporatist and military entities. Will they
hesitate to intimidate or remove Trump if he tries to end ISIS? Western war-interests always need
an enemy after all.
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Millions of voices
cried out in terror and
were suddenly silenced...
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"The single
event that changed my life more than any other was TARP, aka the banker
bailouts. The unfairness, extreme greed and selfishness with
which the status quo bailed out financial criminals while leaving the public
high and dry changed me forever. When it comes to shaping American history, it is equal in importance
to the attacks of 9/11. I
couldn’t contemplate why government officials were putting so much money and
energy into bailing out people like me, while ignoring everyone else. It felt irrational,
unethical and dirty."
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America Has Become A "Parasitocracy"
Everyone wants to get something for nothing. Everyone wants to be a rentier. And every
society has them. But a rentier is a parasite. And the more of them you have, the weaker the economy becomes – until it
eventually succumbs to revolution, depression, war, or hyperinflation.
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
"So what did
they buy? In short,
almost everything. The
ECB bought “topical” credits such as VW, Glencore and EdF. They showed little
concern with taking credit risk by buying a range of low-BBB names. They bought
“high yield” credits such as Telecom Italia and Lufthansa. They bought
corporate bonds from US, UK and Swiss companies, and ironically, the ECB’s most
popular purchase has been Deutsche Bahn – an issuer where bond yields are the most negative."
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And the 'winner'
is...
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It is probably a tie...
Although the Saudis caused
damage to U.S. shale, they also hit the global oil industry hard; and while
they managed to preserve their market share, they paid a heavy price in terms
of oil revenues.
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Turkey Latest: Tens Of Thousands Purged; "Gulenist Media" Shut Down; Pilots Behind Russian Jet Downing Arrested
Turkish president
Erdogan continues his witch hunt purge for the third day, and as of this
morning the office of the Turkish prime minister removed from duty 257 staff
suspected of being linked to the failed coup Reuters cites a source in the PM’s
team as saying Tuesday. The number of those suspended from duty in the PM’s
office has reached 10 percent of the estimated 2,600 total personnel of Prime
Minister Binali Yildirim’s staff.
If the premise of
central-banking largesse is to maintain (or inspire) economic confidence, then Mario Draghi's smoke and mirrors have
officially failed. This morning's ZEW data on German and European
Consumer confidence is a disaster. Both the current situation and expectations
for Germany tumbled but most worryingly, the 'hope' for European economic growth has crashed to its lowest since
Draghi promised to do "whatever it takes" in the summer of 2012.
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- Turkey's Erdogan recounts night of coup, mulls death penalty (AP)
- Dissidents Silenced, GOP Convention Turns Attacks on Clinton (WSJ)
- U.S. police deaths build momentum for law to treat attacks as hate crimes (Reuters)
- Police across US patrolling in pairs after ambush attacks (AP)
- UK will not invoke EU Article 50 this year, government lawyer says (Reuters)
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Be
Aware of What Is Happening in Syria! U.S. Government Support of Fundamentalist
Fighters Destroying Syria and Terrorizing the Syrian People is a Terrible
Mistake” By Mounzer Ahmad
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
US-NATO Border Confrontation with Russia
Risks Nuclear War By Michael Hudson
We can't take a risk. If there's a little bit of a movement
against us, we're going to launch the hydrogen bombs.
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ISIS Has
Nothing To Do With Islam? . By William Blum
Warning! What
follows is very politically incorrect.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Paul Street
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Mark Lewis Taylor
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Russell Mokhiber
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WASHINGTON BLOG
The
major newsmedia and politicians refer to Glass-Steagall for its supposedly
capping bank-size, but it never actually did any such thing: it instead
separated commercial banks (lenders to
consumers and businesses) from investment banks (stockbrokers and other
market-makers for the sale of financial gambles) and from insurers (which take
on the risks that other financial firms avoid). It never established any cap on
bank-size.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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¡Libertad para Julian Assange! Ignacio
Ramonet
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PRESS TV
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