MAY 9
20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Money supply that doesn't translate
into consumption must result in higher financial asset prices until defaults
result in wealth destruction.
Even some of the most ardent supporters of the fraud that is
Keynesian economics now admit the entire modern
economic system is on the verge of collapse for one main reason: the marginal
utility of debt is collapsing, with ever more debt required to generate an
increase in underlying GDP.
SEE TABLE:
During Q3, the correlation fell to just $0.28 and resulted in
very little inflation of GDP growth. Through this lens,
the impact of QE on the real economy has diminished over time.
SEE TABLE”
It is
likely then that current QE is unlikely spurring much consumption as r isn’t
influenced lower (via money supply increase) as much as in the past
and likely remains well above r*.
Worse, as we discussed
last week, one can argue that r* is likely lower now than potentially any
point in history, and according
to Deutsche Bank it is at an all time low of -1%.
SEE CHART:
Risk assets will continue to slide
into the election and into 2021, at which point as Nordea showed last week, we
will hit a point where the lagged effect of the flood central bank liquidity
will finally hit into the S&P500, and result in one final explosion in risk
assets, sending stocks over 40% higher...
SEE CHART:
….
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There is a chance central banks will
own a good part of cross-sector corporate debt/equity when the dust settles and
inflation starts to go through the roof.
That there is a bubble, a massive one, is unquestionable. Readers will further have
anticipated that it didn't have to be a global pandemic to burst this bubble. This bubble was practically looking for a prick - any prick
- to burst it.Whether it was a credit
event, liquidity shortages that led to bankruptcies, a terrorist attack, a
natural disaster or a bat: markets had reached a level of fragility where they
could not cope with the materialising of such a tail risk event.
Market outlook
Already
banks have slowed their credit lines to corporates, like in 2008/2009,
anticipating that some of their debtors will fail to repay.
Sure, with more QE flooding the markets a complete wipe-out
may be averted, as there is no political appetite for
mass insolvencies (especially in an election year in the US).
SEE CHART:
Crossing the Rubicon
If central
banks have no or a soft-washed inflation mandate we are heading towards a
Weimar Republic style inflation setup.
Asset prices across
asset classes are being propped up by central banks, it becomes just a matter
of time until inflation goes from 'subdued' to 'out of hand'.
Other commentators
already noted: we may have abandoned free markets and
now head to a centrally planned set up.
The recent pick-up from the March 2020 lows in stock markets
will be short lived. Nothing has fundamentally improved, other than emergency
liquidity provisions by central banks. Expect a new selloff by year end - re-testing the lows of March - because
perfidiously the Fed does not yet own enough corporate
debt/equity to control asset prices!
SEE CHART:
Central
banks will be printing fiat money on a unprecedented scale. With potentially negative interest rates
even in the US, a slowing of global trade and thus
reduced supply, the risk of a surprise inflation increases markedly. If and
when this feeds through, asset allocation becomes key.
Look for uncorrelated
asset classes or inflation resistant assets. There is a
chance central banks will own a good part of cross-sector corporate debt/equity
when the dust settles and inflation starts to go through the roof.
….
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"Volatility sellers have pulled
back, and it will take a long time for new strategies to form and for assets to
grow."
They will be back (in fact this is a great time for the
strategy given less supply now, a theme the MS Cross Asset Strategy team has
highlighted in Overwrite
Across Asset Classes from Apr 22nd 2020) – but that base of dedicated vol sellers will be slow to build, which means
that volatility declines more slowly from here, which means that systematic
strategy re-leveraging will come more slowly as well.
SEE CHART:
While it is still early in this
episode, over the last month
the magnitude of the gamma supplied to the market has been modest,
suggesting a similar pattern is developing.
SEE CHART:
It Is harder to recycle the volatility selling that
occurs outside the US via autocallable products back into the larger US market,
the relative cheapness of ex-US vol (driven by greater local vol supply)
relative to S&P 500 vol could be sustained for some time (ask
for more details on auto callables).
SEE CHART:
See More Charts at:
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Former
President Barack Obama delivered a blistering attack on Donald Trump’s handling
of the coronavirus pandemic, calling it 'an absolute chaotic disaster'as well as anemic.'...
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"This is the largest interference with personal liberty in
our history..."
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URGE pacto de NO AGRESSION entre el US y China.
Eso supone NO a la xenofobia USA
And how many lives did their delay cost?
….
How
many lives? Menos de las que causa la xenophia y
muchisimo menos de las que podría provocar la guerra con China or el WW3, que
es adonde apunta nuestro ‘querido’ Presidente Trump. Si Trump quiere ganar las
elecciones lo menos que puede hacer es
desmontar NATO y llamar al Presid Chino para un
abrazo de amistad fraterna. Revise mi
nota abajo: No se puede solucionar un problema son los
mismos medios que los crearon: el militarism rampante d US
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Silver? That is not true, GOLD
is the most precious metal
Silver is the matrix of precious metals..
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The world
is a dangerous place...
and the virus has only made it more dangerous...
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
- UN
Rapporteur on Torture Says Assange Case Made Him Scared to Learn More About
'Mature Democracies'
- Algorithm
Bug? Netizens Complain Facebook Bans Users for Posting Photo of Soviet Flag
Over Reichstag
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Maduro: se
captura otros 3 mercenarios implicados en el ataque fallido https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352658-maduro-anunciar-captura-tres-mercenarios-intento-fallido-incursion
Colombia: las
tres lanchas incautadas por Ven fueron arrastradas allí por la corriente https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352660-armada-colombia-tres-lanchas-arrastradas-corriente
El número
de personas infectadas por el coronavirus supera los 4 mill https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352597-numero-personas-infectadas-coronavirus-supera-4-millones
Trump
convierte el mundo en un polvorín https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/luis-gonzalo-segura/352438-trump-convierte-mundo-polvorin-gasto-militar
Minuto de
silencio por los caídos en la lucha contra el fascismo https://actualidad.rt.com/video/352641-minuto-silencio-caidos-lucha-fascismo
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Posting selfies, staging performances
for online audiences, and recreating famous works of art using nothing but
impromptu means seems to be helping thousands of people who are quarantined in
their own homes to overcome anxiety and feel inspired again.
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In this episode of the Keiser Report,
Max and Stacy discuss the 2.999 trillion (BARGAIN!) the US Treasury expects to
borrow for the April– June quarter. They also discuss the ‘infinity war’ that’s
raging as central banks
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The viral video of Ahmaud Arbery’s shooting in Georgia shows
a murder akin to a modern-day lynching. Native American communities requested
Covid-19 medical supplies, but were given body bags instead.
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He discusses the impact coronavirus
will have on the European Union’s unity, the possibility of class warfare and
revolutions in the West comparable to Russia in 1979 and France in 1789,
anti-establishment sentiment as a result of globalization, how unfettered
capitalism has created the conditions for mass social unrest amid Covid-19 and
more!
SOURCE:
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- How
the Medical Industry Continually Invents Epidemics, Making Billion Dollar
Profits at Our Expense By Etienne de Harven,
- The
Coronavirus Crisis Has Exposed Germany’s Ambition to Take Control of the EU By Paul Antonopoulos
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