MAY 21 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
With the recession in course the US Economy falls little by
little
Another 2.4 million Americans added to the jobless rolls,
China tensions soar, Leading Indicators were a disaster, Housing Data a
shitshow, PMIs bounced but remain historically bad... so buy
small cap (domestically focused) stocks, and dump gold, silver, and cryptos...
Gold puked on major volume at 10amET...
See Chart:
Silver was monkey hammered even more than gold...
See Chart:
Cryptos have erased a lot of the post-Bitcoin-Halving gains...
See Chart:
Notably, the plunge in bullion and bitcoin coincided with the ugly PMI
data and a jolt lower in Fed Rate expectations (back towards negative rates)...
See Chart:
Nasdaq was the laggard on the day but Small Caps were manically bid off
the European Close lows (and took a hit on the China sanction headlines late on)...
See Chart:
As shorted stocks were squeezed
yet again...
See Chart:
Meanwhile, The B-dollar index
did nothing...
See Chart:
Bonds did nothing... (long-end yields rose around 1bps on a major
corporate issuance day)
See Chart:
Finally, whatever The Fed, The Market, The
Politicians are doing... it's not working for sentiment...
See Chart:
S&P500 P/E Ratio vs. US Consumer Confort
Americans haven’t been this pessimistic about current economic
conditions in six years. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 34.7 last
week, a 1.1-point drop from the prior week and its ninth
straight weekly decline, matching the longest streak on record.
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"UNLIKE
ANYTHING WE HAVE SEEN IN HISTORY": THE CORONACRISIS WILL WIPE OUT OVER 4
YEARS OF GDP GROWTH
BofA now
expects a -40% GDP drop in Q2, down from -30%. It does not see the economy
recovering until the end of 2022.
- BofA's annual GDP to plunge 8.0% this year with a 4.0% rebound next year. The peak-to-trough drop in GDP is 13%. This breaks the previously held post-war record of -4% in the Great Recession.
What is more troubling is that as
shown in the chart below, the corona crisis will wipe out 4 years of GDP
growth, with BofA now
expecting real GDP at the end of 2021 to be where it was at the end of 2017!
SEE CHARTs:
BofA issues a word of caution to
all those who see a V-shaped recovery in recent data: "it is important to
keep in mind that many indicators will show a significant bounce as the economy
moves out of hibernation. But what initially looks like a V-shaped recovery is set to lose steam
after the initial gain has subsided."
With that in mind, BofA moves on to
the next key subject, the devastation in the labor market and upcoming
disinflation. As Meyer writes, "although more than
20 million jobs have been lost over March and April, the jobless claims figures
suggest we are likely to see more cuts in the May report",
something we discussed in our report spreading
the real jobs report.
SEE CHART:
Alternative
Unemployment rate measures
BofA now believes that the
unemployment rate will reach a peak of 19% at the end of 2Q, while broader
measures of unemployment suggest that the rates are already in excess of
20%. .. This, as Meyer warns, is a recipe for
disinflation and could prove catastrophic for banks that haven't provisioned
enough for loan losses.
The bank forecasts core PCE inflation will reach 0.6% yoy by year-end, although the bank still believes that the US will avoid
outright deflation in underlying inflation and that the focus will be on
measures of expectations.
SEE CHARTS
in an economy under lockdown, demand for essentials has exploded higher
resulting in a strong bid on prices. For example, food at home
prices popped 2.6% mom in April. As a result, BofA says this could "misguide" consumers into believing the higher
inflation story (we doubt consumers will be happy to know they are being
"misguided" when they pay a record high price for steak ahead of the
Labor Day holiday).
However, this may prove to be only
temporary as broader disinflationary forces take over, with a risk of falling
below 0% and therefore entering deflation territory.
Finally, while urging clients to
avoid letters to describe the cycle, BofA does just that and in the next chart
it looks at four hypothetical types of recoveries: a "V" (upside) a
"U" (close to the current), an "L" (downside) or a
"W" (downside). In all cases, it assumes that output falls by 40% annualized in 2Q and trend growth of
1.8%.
In short: for all the charlatans who focus on Q/Q
change instead of Y/Y or trend line, chart 7 illustrates the pitfalls of conflating levels and growth rates.In all scenarios, GDP growth would look quite robust initially.
This is because when the economy re-opens, baseline economic activity will be so weak that growth will almost
surpass its trend rate for a few quarters. This
underscores the importance of considering the level of GDP.
SEE CHARTS
Or, as BofA realistically concludes
"WE CANNOT SIMPLY SNAP OUR FINGERS AND RETURN THE
ECONOMY TO THE WAY IT WAS PRIOR TO THE SHOCK FROM COVID-19."
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Trace data
shows an estimated $5.3BN increase in dealer inventories after the Fed began
buying ETFs, no doubt in part artificial because ETF creations are unreported
and thus not subtracted from Trace.
According to BofA's credit
strategist Hans Mikkelsen, the Fed
has continued buying at roughly that average daily pace and the
bank's expectation is thatthe Fed will
report holding around $2.5bn of corporate bond ETFs as of Tuesday this week.
Looking at daily IG ETF inflows they have risen to
about $780bn after the Fed began buying from $360bn the prior period. Meanwhile, HY ETF inflows actually declined.
SEE CHART
Trace data shows an estimated $5.3bn increase in dealer
inventories after the Fed began buying ETFs, no doubt in part artificial because ETF
creations are unreported and thus not subtracted from Trace...
... when dealers feed the Fed. IG and HY ETFs are trading at 0.44%
and 0.30% premiums, respectively, on average, suggesting
some limitations on specific ETFs the Fed can buy.
SEE CHART:
In short: the Fed likely
purchased $2.5 billion in bond ETFs in the past week, once again steamrolling
over even the faintest pretense that price discovery remains in a market where
the perpetually high LQD and JNK prices mean companies
can and will issue trillions in debt which they will promptly turn around and
use to fund even more buybacks, as the Fed now fully owns the final bubble, the
one where Soviet-style central planning is on full display.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feeding-fednzy-powell-announce-25-billion-bond-etf-purchases-today
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"There is a huge
disconnect between markets and the economic reality, and it’s
fundamentally based on the view that 2020 is a lost year... It looks a very dangerous bet to me..."
Gold miners/ BANG stocks:
“I personally always say that if you want to look at the world of
metals or commodities, and you want to invest in the fundamentals of those
metals or those commodities, the
best way to play it is through the commodity itself, or the macro, not through
equities, because cost of capital is also rising and there are
challenges of financing.”
Gold/silver ratio
I always tell my clients that if you like
gold you certainly have to like silver. I don’t understand why you would
be long silver short gold or have it as a pair. I think that you need to have
both. But I don’t believe in the debate about the ratio of gold to silver.
Reminds me of the debate about the ratio of oil to natural gas. And I think
that that was a mistake in the past.”
SEE CHART:
Will gold continue to be bullish?
“I don’t think that gold is going to be as bullish relative to the
dollar because of the high shortage of US dollars that exists in the economy
right now, which is about between 13 to 20 trillion.
However, global investors are likely to look
for opportunities to find a good investment relative to their currency now.
SEE CHART:
Global Gold Reserves vs. FED Global Treasury Reserves
So Brazilian investors, Turkish investors, Chinese investors, Japanese
investors, European investors are likely to see a much better return of gold
relative to their currencies than relative to the US
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SHORT
NEWS
Initially, we were told that the coronavirus lockdowns would just “temporarily” disrupt the U.S. economy, but
now it is becoming clear that a lot of the damage will be permanent.
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Neither the Lockdown nor the planed attack by Penta-NATO
Aghst RU-China work. They supposed to work hand on hand. Both failed. Now to
stop another attempt of WW3 RU has to give nukes to VEN & IRAN then a
negotiated peace like 1961 with JFK will proceed. There is no other way to stop
US genocidal-wars as happen before.
...politicians have instead
imposed a new form of central planning based on an unproven, theoretical set of ideas
about police-enforced "social distancing"...
….
Un clavo saca otro clavo, dicen los
carpinteros de la Guerra. It seems to be true
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"Sorry. Fascism makes me cranky..."
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If you catch yourself using these words, please, for the love of kittens,STOP. Stop perpetuating the
propaganda...
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SAFETY.. AMONG THE 12
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"DeMuro
fraudulently stuffed the ballot box by literally standing in a voting booth and
voting over and over, as fast as
he could..."
….
We don’t punish the killers of
Democracy… SO: The REPs can also say the
same.. AND both will be considered HONEST
citizens & candidate to Nobel Price
The duopoly system has to be
changed, either with 3rd option or ABSTENTION We
can leave as it is, but the winner won’t have legitimacy & the bomb will
explode. The time is not open for more crook ‘normality’, bye bye neoliber trap
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"We
would impose penalties on individuals who are complicit in China’s illegal
crackdown in Hong Kong."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI
ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
Militar USA capturado en Ven asegura que Guaidó
"desorientó" incursión marítima https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353932-militar-estadounidense-capturado-venezuela-incursion-guaido-desorientar
US anuncia retiro d Tratado de Cielos Abiertos: ¿por
qué es import y qué efecto tendrá? https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353937-eeuu-anuncia-retirada-tratado-cielos-abiertos-que-consecuencias-tener
Expertos alertan que el CV-19 podría
"devorar" diez años de vida a pacientes recupera https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353917-expertos-covid-devorar-diez-anos-vida-pacientes-recuperados
Bolsonaro sobre cloroquina: "No tiene evidencia
científica, pero quien lo tomo está vivo
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353963-bolsonaro-defender-cloroquina-coronavirus
Proyecto de ley prohíbe al POTUS retirarse de acuerdos sin aprob del Congreso https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353964-presentar-ley-prohibe-presidente-retirarse-acuerdos-sin-aprobacion-congreso
Wuhan confirma la prohibición de venta y consumo de
animales salvajes https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353947-wuhan-confirma-prohibicion-venta-consumo-animales-salvajes
el hombre más rico de la India se asocio a Facebook para
competir con Google, Amazon https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353858-mukesh-ambani-hombre-rico-india-facebook-competir-google-amazon
Genetistas españoles detectan individuo respons de casi la mitad de contagios
de CV https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353896-supercontagiadores-genetistas-espanoles-detectan-responsables-contagios
Tratado de Cielos Abiertos: "Trump se divide de
Rusia y apoya al Pentágono" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/353970-experto-trump-dividirse-entre-actitud-rusia-pentagono
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
US Attorney
General William Barr has decided not to open a judicial inquiry into Obamagate
during this electoral period.
On his
part, Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee Lindsey Graham has requested that
the names should be made public of those senior officials and secretaries
involved in the spying of General Michael Flynn before the 2016 election of
Donald Trump.
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
In this
episode of Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the blow-up dolls and
mannequins simulating activity at social distancing restaurants but helping to
instill a creepy post-pandemic unease over the new normal. They compare that to
our blow-up doll economy, where money printing also creates a creepy illusion
of economic activity – one which the money velocity shows is all fake. In the
second half, Max talks to Tyson Slocum of Public Citizen about the structural
failures in the energy market which allowed for a negative oil price, and they
discuss how the Saudis got played by retail ETF investors in America.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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