MAY 14 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Over 36
million newly jobless Americans in the last 8 weeks... and the Nasdaq is up
over 30% in the same period...
This is the 7th week
of the last 8 with massive job losses and gains for The Dow...
- 3/26 - 3.31mm jobless, S&P +6.24%, Dow +6.38%
- 4/02 - 6.87mm jobless, S&P +2.28%, Dow +2.24%
- 4/09 - 6.62mm jobless, S&P +1.45%, Dow +1.21%
- 4/16 - 5.24mm jobless, S&P +0.58%, Dow +0.12%
- 4/23 - 4.43mm jobless, S&P -0.04%, Dow +0.18%
- 4/30 - 3.84mm jobless, S&P -0.92%, Dow -1.17%
- 5/07 - 3.17mm jobless, S&P +1.15%, Dow +0.89%
- 5/14 - 2.98mm jobless, S&P +1.15%, Dow +1.62%
Major sell
program at the open today (almost historic)...
See Chart:
Banks were
panic bid today...
See Chart:
US equity
markets rebounded almost perfectly off critical technical levels today...
See Chart:
Dow
futures soared over 800 points off the lows
SEE Chart:
Some claimed the
bounce was due to positive comments from Nelson Peltz on CNBC - who mention
that he was optimistic that "a vaccine is going to come sooner than
later," suggesting that the Pfizer CEO had said something positive (but
Pfizer has not even started its trials and has only one vaccine in Phase 1). In
fact Peltz poured cold water on the broad market, saying he had two new
positions, was not buying the market:
"I'm not buying the market: I’m
buying specific companies. In this case, two companies that I like very
much."
Peltz comments hit
around 1230ET and as the chart shows, there was no reaction at the time... but
what what retail heard on their apparently delayed feeds: buy all the things!
After two
ugly days, shorts were squeezed once again today (and banks and energy gains -
worst performers YTD - suggest this was nothing but a squeeze bounce)...
See Chart:
At 1345ET The Fed's Kashkari said he had "more confidence in
the signal from the bond market than the stock market..." Equity
bulls better hope he is wrong...
See Chart:
It's
pretty clear the market wants negative-rates no matter what Powell et al. say...
See Chart:
Bonds were
bid today...
See Chart:
Oil prices
surged today, extending the week's gains...
See Chart:
The
B-Dollar Index dropped today...
See Chart:
Finally, American consumers ain't buying what American stocks are
selling...
See Chart:
….
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Wall Street ‘investors’ don create Jobs, they create more
rich for speculators Capital
"If
your stock has done well, you might do a secondary offering here because you
know there’s going to be an opportunity to deploy that."= False
Flag
….
,,,,
FACT: Check
table to see how COVID-19 speculative business affected jobs:
OPEN CHART SOURCE:
FROM:
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"The
number of email’s I get suggesting that they are bullish because “everyone” is
too bearish, now exceeds the number of emails I receive from people that are
actually bearish, which partially offsets the former."
Rich Ross, writes - not without a
trace of irony - "The
number of email’s I get suggesting that they are bullish because “everyone” is
too bearish, now exceeds the number of emails I receive from people that are
actually bearish, which partially offsets the former."
Amusing syllogisms aside, in the
same note Ross has a chart that is very troubling: it
shows the relative plunge of bank
stocks to all time lows against the broader S&P (by which we of
course mean the five or so FAAMG names that have now become the de facto
market).
SEE CHART:
SOURCE:
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...it is crucial for
market participants to keep an open mind to all scenarios andplan defensively.
Real estate investor Marcel Arsenault has
racked up Warren Buffett-scale profits over the past few credit cycles by
loading up on “empty buildings” at the bottom, filling them with paying
tenants, and then selling at the top. In a recent
message to investors, he warns that the current market is especially tricky.
Here’s an excerpt:
Our Rationale for a
Highly Dangerous “Lazy W”
- The U.S. is already experiencing extremely sharp job losses.
- We project 26.9 million jobs lost between March and May, 2020.
- This implies an unemployment rate of 21.4% by May, 2020 – the highest since the 1930s.
- Because of the immense economic damage, RCS believes there will be intense political and economic pressure to reopen the economy (while unprepared);
- Businesses rehire, hoping to rebuild lost sales.
- RCS estimates nearly 10.0 million jobs will be regained, lowering the unemployment rate to 15.1% by August, 2020.
- This premature “relapse” also happened in the 1918 Flu Pandemic.
- Re-opening of the economy without the right programs in place causes a “second wave” of new Covid-19 cases in the Fall.
- States reimplement Shelter-in-Place orders.
- The weakened economy refreezes.
- Weakened businesses capitulate and close permanently.
- By October, 6.9 million jobs will be lost from the premature opening.
- Many of these job losses will become persistent.
SEE CHART:
Conclusions and Implications of Our “Lazy W”
- The Covid-19 Pandemic is setting the economy back several years.
- By YE 2021, considerable demand for nearly every sector of the economy will have been permanently destroyed.
- Employment levels by YE 2021 will be roughly the same as YE 2015.
- It will take until mid-2024 for jobs to recover lost ground.
- Interest rates will stay at historic lows into 2024.
- With high unemployment, the Fed will have no incentive to raise rates.
- Near-term, unemployment peaks at over 20%.
- By YE 2024, the unemployment rate will still be at 6.4%.
- Asset values that were at peak will decline precipitously.
- Equities and commercial real estate will not hit bottom until late 2021.
- Home values will hold up comparatively well.
Real Capital Solutions (RCS) believes it is crucial for market
participants to keep an open mind to all scenarios and plan defensively.
This scenario is as reasonable as it is scary, especially for the
retail investors who have, for some reason, been pouring into stocks lately. Consider:
The coronavirus market downturn spurred young people — in some cases,
for the first time in their lives — to get started with investing.
A spike in new accounts at online brokers show that young and
inexperienced investors saw the coronavirus downturn as an entry point into the
world of investing and not a time to hunker down.
“New investors who sense a generational-buying moment but do not have
much background in the equity space,” Citi chief U.S. equity strategist
Tobias Levkovich said in a note to clients.
“We have heard anecdotally about younger individuals with less market
experience viewing the March plunge as a unique time to start portfolios and
often crowding into the tech arena, purchasing the stocks whose services or
products they know and use.”
The major online brokers - Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Etrade and
Robinhood - saw new accounts grow as much as 170% in the first quarter, when
stocks experienced the fastest bear market and the worst first quarter in
history.
But young people apparently saw it as an opportunity and began buying
familiar technology stocks.
So who are you going to follow? Millennial Mike and his momentum-chasing
muppetry or someone who has actually been through a period when BTFD was not
the only strategy and The Fed was not the only game in
town.
….
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Assuming a low PE equivalent to 1932’s low of 9.3 the S&P 500, based on its
earnings, will reach a low of
500.06...
The secular nature of the stock market is well
documented.
The stock market has been secular since its
origin in 1802. Every secular bull has been followed by a secular bear and vice
versa. The minimum declines from all of the secular bull peaks to the secular
bear troughs have been 60%. Secular bulls and
bears are the nature of the stock market. You can’t have one without the other.
SEE CHART:
Secular Bulls & Bears
Secular bulls and bears are defined
by “public” or consumer sentiment. Investor sentiment is
completely irrelevant to a secular bull or bear. Neither
government fiscal or central bank monetary stimulus change the mood of the
public from negative to positive.
The blue line in the chart below
depicts the growth trend for the Dow Jones index over
the last 101 years. The 7.5% growth trend is the equivalent to sum of the
percentage changes for population growth and inflation. For those
periods in which the public is optimistic, such as the roaring twenties, the
index for an extended number of years above the trend line. When public becomes pessimistic, as was the case after the
1929 crash, Dow trades for extended number of years below its 7.5% trend line.
SEE CHART:
The 1949 to 1966 bull in the above
chart was due to the public becoming optimistic after the end of World War
II. The 1966 to 1982 secular bear included the Vietnam war, interest
rates of 20%, the highest inflation rate since the civil war and the first and
only resignation of a US President.
The circumstances around the crashes
of the markets from their 2020 all time or multi-year highs and the
ensuing collapses for the economies of the US and 12 other countries are eerily
similar to the US’ 1929 crash. The crash of 1929 resulted in the US
unemployment rate surging by 400% from September 1929 to March 1930 and
doubling to 800% in September 1930. Similar to 2020, the President and US
government in 1929 were proactive to mitigate damage to the economy.
Despite the enactment of fiscal stimulus consumers still cut back their
spending. See 1929 and 1930 excerpts from Herbert Hoover
Presidential library archives:
1929
After the stock market crash,
President Hoover sought to prevent panic from spreading throughout the
economy. In November, he summoned business leaders to the White House and
secured promises from them to maintain wages. According to Hoover’s
economic theory, financial losses should affect profits, not employment, thus
maintaining consumer spending and shortening the downturn. Hoover
received commitments from private industry to spend $1.8 billion for new
construction and repairs to be started in 1930, to stimulate employment.
The President ordered federal
departments to speed up their construction projects and asked all governors to
expand public works projects in their states. He asked Congress for a $160
million tax cut while doubling spending for public buildings, dams, highways,
and harbors.
1930
Praise for the President’s
intervention was widespread; the New York Times commented, “No one in
his place could have done more. Very few of his predecessors could have done as
much.” Together, government and business spent more in the first half of
1930 than in the entire previous year. Still consumers cut back their spending,
which forced many businesses and manufacturers to reduce their output and lay
off their workers.
Common Denominators
The common denominator for 1929 and
2020 crashes and collapsing economies for the US and a dozen other countries is
what separates them from all of the other notable market crashes. That pivotal
piece is the extreme and immediate polar opposite change in sentiment for an
entire population within days of a crash commencing.
Consumer sentiment went from
extremely positive with unemployment at an all-time low in 1929 to extremely
negative by the beginning of 1930. The University of Michigan’s recent
US consumer confidence survey results is a great example. The chart
below depicts the sudden and significant decline in consumer confidence in April
2020 as compared to February 2020’s reading which was the highest since 2002.
SEE CHART:
Consumers
worldwide are becoming increasingly pessimistic and are retrenching due to
their concerns about being infected with the Covid-19 Coronavirus and also
about losing their jobs. The chart below depicts the 500% increase in US
unemployment from February 2020 to April 2020.
SEE CHART:
The recovery from the fears of pandemics job losses will likely take
years for consumers to overcome. Thus, the probability is
extremely low that consumer sentiment will reverse from extremely negative to
even somewhat positive in the current decade.
What To Anticipate
The fall of
the Berlin Wall and China opening its economy in 1990 resulted in the 1982-2000
secular bull being the longest ever since 1802.
SEE CHART:
As shown below, the S&P 500’s earnings and PE ratios from December 31, 1927
through December 31, 1932. The index’s earnings reached a 12 year high of
$24.16 on December 31, 1929, and then declined by 66% to $8.08 on December 31,
1932. The high for the S&P 500’s PE multiple was
20.2 in September 1929 and low was 9.3 in June 1932.
SEE CHART:
Assuming the S&P 500’s 2019 peak to 2022 trough earnings mimic the
66% decline from 1929 to 1932 its earnings will fall from $162.93 at 12/31/2019
to $53.77 in late 2022. Assuming a low PE equivalent to 1932’s low of 9.3 the index
based on its earnings will reach a low of 500.06. From the S&P 500’s 2020
high of 3393.52, the index will have declined by 85.3% when it reaches its
final bottom.
SOURCE
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"If
this opening up turns out to be a real problem, and then we have further
shutdowns, then things could get a lot worse."
Wall Street trading desks posted
their best quarter in eight years in the first three months of 2020 on surging
demand from customers responding to the most volatile market on record. That
helped the industry’s largest firms remain profitable even as the coronavirus
pandemic forced them to set aside more for bad loans in three months than they
did in all of last year.
This is
good news... for those traders who are still employed. The world’s biggest banks cut trading and investment-banking
jobs by 5% in the first quarter, the most in six years, according to Coalition
Development Ltd.
SEE CHART:
The result
is that those workers who are still employed have a relatively larger pot to
split, or at least that's the theory. As Bloomberg adds, some think the revenue gains won’t translate
into higher pay because fallout from the pandemic has been too severe. New York’s bankers and traders are likely to see bonus
payments “fall sharply” this year as the economic slump crimps earnings
in the finance industry, the state’s comptroller said in March.
The decline in staffing
contrasts with rising revenue, according to data from the 12 largest global
investment banks tracked by Coalition. In fixed income, currencies and commodities,
revenue jumped 20%, driven by macro products. Investment-banking
revenue increased 7%, helped by equity and debt capital markets.
At the end of the day, it all
depends on whether there is a second wave or if the reopening does not work out
as expected.
SOURCE
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Some
recovery but a long, long way before we get back to normal.
Of course,
stabilization does not mean recovery, as the flatlining in the percentage
change in number of hours worked by hourly employees compared to median shows.
SEE CHART:
See more charts at
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
UNFAIR? .. I
THINK SO.. After reading the previous history of US Econ crisis
Keep in mind, everything Powell talked about
was already happening before COVID-19. The economy was riddled with
debt and was already being propped up by extraordinary Fed monetary
policy...
….
RELATED:
So much for Fed credibility.
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...our ancestors knew that the federal power would inevitably attract people to public office who
would do the types of things that
were being restricted...
====
"It
would seem your “wingman” Eric Holder is missing a step these days..."
====
Meanwhile, the CDC is rolling out some new guidelines...
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IRONY:
TRUMP got future IF loss
Election 2020: he is the 1st recruited by SPACE
FORCE
“Some people look to the
stars and ask,
‘What if?’ Our job is to have an answer.”
….
….
In my opinion there is no point in enrolling the SPACE FORCE. Trump has the greatest chance to bit
BUFFON BIDEN. He has money to create false POLLs (money from Bloomberg &
similars) and you have money too for being more creative in your POLLS (in
addition to open the other sex scandal BIDEN was involved .. plus the Libyan
GOLD scandal in which Obama & Hillary – now main supporters of Biden- were
involved. There is also evidence that
Biden new the help requested by the US
Embassy in Bengazi threatened by other jihadists sect from Saudis, so Biden is accomplice in the crime
committed in that embassy).
But the main reason for Trump not to get involve with SPACE FORCE is his work at economic level inside the US:
Financializing it. The best: he managed to control the obscene appetite for greed
of some huge Cops and that is the work that he must continue doing it in favor
of the poor and middle classes. But if he continue attacking China and RU,
& VEN, Iran and other small countries .. he is promoting WW3 (RU-CH will
respond immediately) and Trump promotion of WW3 is a direct attack to the life of our Nation and life of the
entire humanity. Then BIDEN will be the
less evil choice to vote for (of course
he is in favor of WW3 too, but he don’t say it so. Biden was involve in
Obama-Hillary terrorism, in alliance with Saudis, UK and ISR). That is the main
reason why many people don’t plan to vote none of them. There will be a huge
absentism & it is a ticking bomb for US future.
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Crisis
often produces a dramatic and unpredictable change in economics, finance, and
politics. If history is a guide investors should brace for an earthquake
of change.
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The core problem is the U.S. economy has been fully financialized, and so costs are
unaffordable...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
False flag?
...Brazil
represents a threat to South America. =False flag
….
IF COL did so, then COL is the
biggest threat to LAT-AM. IT was COL who helps the invasion of US to VEN. VEN
& BRA has to put this case in the COURT of Costa Rica asap. We don’t want
wars in South America, we don’t want to buy arms from US. We want PEACE not
wars and if COL receive free-weapons from US
then BRA has to get it from RU-CH.
Un clavo saca otro clavo, is the logic. Get help from them While wait
the Court of Costa Rica answer. DON’T GO TO OAS: their burocrats merceanar are
paid by the US. Their aim: enslave d South
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Despite
Common Threats, Kurdish Support for Israel Won't See Light of Day for Fear of
Persecution
by Elizabeth Blade
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Ecuador: Represión contra protesta pacífica
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Trump, sobre China: "Podríamos cortarles toda
la relación" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353143-trump-china-cortar-relacion
VEN: Delcy Rodríguez sobre la operación Gedeón https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/conversando-correa/352910-delcy-rodriguez-operacion-gedeon-venezuela-eeuu
Advierten que la próxima pandemia podría originarse
en la Amazonía https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353215-proxima-pandemia-virus-amazonia
Cilia Flores afirma que hay "suficientes pruebas"
para enjuiciar a Guaidó https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353193-cilia-flores-asegurar-hay-suficientes-pruebas-guaido
La carne se convierte en un alimento para ricos en
EE.UU. a causa de la pandemia https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353132-carne-eeuu-alimento-ricos-pandemia
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
The world
is gradually rolling back lockdown measures, as the coronavirus pandemic shows
a faint sign of easing off. We talked about this with Paul Turner, the Rachel
Carson professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Yale University, and
professor of microbiology at Yale School of Medicine.
====
Lee
interviews Californian activist and congressional candidate Angelica Dueñas.
She is currently heavily involved in community mutual aid efforts while also
experiencing personal crises. They discuss mutual aid through this crisis, how
survivors of sexual assault are being asked by the DNC to support a sexual
predator, her experience as a Bernie delegate in 2016, and her campaign for
Congress.
====
The
dropping of the FBI case against Michael Flynn reveals what so many of us have
long believed: ‘Russiagate’ was a crude and sloppy invention to undermine the
outcome of a presidential election. Irrespective of how you feel about the
current occupant of the White House, this was an attempted coup. Tellingly, the
corporate liberal media have sided with the conspirators.
====
Rick
Sanchez discusses the looming US-China cold war and how the worldwide COVID-19
pandemic has exacerbated tensions between the two superpowers even further. He
examines US history and Washington's penchant for "cold wars" going
back to 1898. Then former USTR official Steve Gill, former UK MP George
Galloway and former Pentagon official Michael Maloof share their expertise.
====
====
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Dept.
of Defense Purchasing 500 Million ApiJect Syringes to Inject Every Person in
America with Coronavirus Vaccine
By Mike Adams
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Coronavirus
Pandemic Prompts Global Mental Health Crisis as Millions Feel Alone, Anxious
& Depressed
-Last
Words to Comfort the Dying: “Thank You. Please Forgive Me. I Forgive You. I
Love You. Goodbye.”
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===
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