MAY 13 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Don’t
Panic.. cuando la muerte acecha.. no hay espacio para el pánico ni el miedo.
Solo hay ganas de morir de pie y no de rodillas
For the second day in a row, it was not pretty in
equity market land...
Small Caps
are worst on the week, followed by Trannies with Nasdaq best but still down
hard...
See Chart:
Three main themes
stood out that spoiled the promise of a v-shaped recovery!...
Billionaires
are ringing alarm bells - Druck, Tepper, &
Lasry - the market's way overvalued and hopes of (and pricing in) a v-shaped
recovery are a fallacy.
Stocks are
decoupled from reality...
See Chart:
US Market
CAP vs GDP . Valuation? is extreme to say the least (despite the plunge)...
See Chart:
Trump didn't like
their view... He said:
When the so-called “rich guys” speak negatively about the market, you
must always remember that some are betting big against it, and make a lot of
money if it goes down. Then they go positive, get big publicity, and make it
going up. They get you both ways. Barely legal?
A Fearful Fed Chair - Powell warned of a prolonged recession but said no negative rates... we
promise! No really, we really really mean it this time... but the economy is
really in a bad way and unless we get more fiscal we are cornered... into maybe
cutting rates negative..
The market
refuses to give up hope for negative rates... [but they are]
See Chart:
Which is
concurrently crushing bank stocks..
See Chart:
China vs.
US? it appears vol is striking US more
than China... for now!
See Chart:
The 'Virus
Fear'-Trade has been soaring despite the broad indices recent gains...
See Chart:
FANG
Stocks fell for the 2nd day in a row...
See Chart:
The last
two days have been the biggest drop in long-momentum since mid-March...
See Chart:
Dow and
Small Caps pushed down towards key technical levels...
See Charts:
And the
VIX term structure notably inverted...
See Chart:
It would
seem that The Fed can't save HY bonds everyday (HYG tumbled today and LQD
rolled over from a pop open)..
See Chart:
The yield
curve notably flattened...
See Chart:
Another
v-shaped recovery in the dollar today...
See Chart
Bloomberg
Dollar Index
Oil prices
were volatile once again with OPEC demand cuts and EIA inventory draws...
See Chart:
Finally,
where's the beef?
See Chart:
….
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"Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities hitting the market
within the next month!"
Previously the Fed had estimated that $100 billion in QE has
approximately the same short term impact on growth as 3 bps of rate cuts. This equivalence means that in order to provide a 1% of “rate
equivalent” easing, the Fed would need to grow the balance sheet by roughly
$3.3 trillion.
Ultimately, the argument is that the drain of
duration supply dominates maturity selection implicit in Fed purchases, causing
the term premium to decline." This is shown in the chart below.
SEE CHART:
Even more term-premium distortions
aside, the Fed has no choice as we explain below. Because, as crazy as it may
sound, despite the Fed's massive liquidity injection to
date which has pushed the Fed's balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $6.7
trillion since mid-March, it is not
enough and to ensure that the problem of the -1% r* is
addressed without cutting rates negative - a problem which is now
manifesting itself in a chronically high dollar, i.e., dollar shortage, which
has failed to normalize back to pre-crisis levels as shown below...
SEE CHART:
... the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet
trillions.... And it will have to do it very soon!
The reason? There is a flood of liquidity-draining issuance
on the horizon.
As Skyrm further explains, with QE purchases winding down - recall that last Friday
the Fed
cut its daily POMO average to just $7 billion from $75 billion two months
ago...
SEE CHART:
.. the deluge of more Treasury
supply will ultimately push rates higher.
But in the near term, things are
about to get scary: as Skyrm calculates, "there are $79 billion CMBs
settling tomorrow and $39 net new Treasurys settling on Friday for the
refunding. But that's just the start. All total, there
are $689 billion net new Treasurys settling during the month of May and $992 billion net new Treasurys settling
between now and June 15. Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities
hitting the market within the next month!"
SEE CHART:
His conclusion: "That means the
market needs to come up with about one trillion dollars to pay for those
securities over the next month." Which, of course, is a euphemism because we all know who
in the market needs to come up with one trillion dollar - the only one who literally prints money: the Federal Reserve.
For those who missed all that, here
is the layman's version: the Fed has flooded the system
with liquidity... and it is not enough, because the way helicopter money
works, is that liquidity supply (the Fed), and
liquidity demand (Treasury via debt issuance) go hand in hand, and
periods of too much supply, as was the cash with the Fed's massive QE in late
March and early April, are promptly followed by periods
of dramatic liquidity demand, such as the next month when $1 trillion in
liquidity will be drained to fund the US government "money
helicopter."
As a result, Powell faces a two-fold problem: since the Fed chair has
taken negative rates off the table, Powell has no choice but too boost QE
again, and unleash another firehose of liquidity in the financial system.
….
SOURCE:
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Somewhere
Carl Icahn is cackling madly as he rolls in the profits.
Good things come to those who wait,
and are willing to shoulder big losses as they wait for a massive payoffs, and for the likes of Carl Icahn, McNamara and others who were
short the CMBX, payday
arrived in mid-March, just as the market collapsed, hammering the CMBX
Series BBB-.
SEE CHART:
And while the broader market has
rebounded since then by a whopping 30%, the
trade also known as the "Big Short 2" has
continued to collapse and today CMBX 6 hit a new lifetime low of just $62.83,
down $10 since our
last update on this storied trade several weeks ago.
SEE CHART
SOURCE
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The latest
consumer confidence survey conducted by Bank of America, the recovery will be
long, hard and very painful.
According to a report from BofA's
economist team, the bank's US Consumer confidence index (USCCI) dropped from
43.4 to a new low of 42.8 on May 11. The details show
that consumers are increasingly pessimistic on the current outlook, as the
current conditions index fell from 36.0 to 34.5, while the expectations index
increased from 50.8 to 51.1.
SEE CHART
BofA found that COVID-19 directly
affected the job status for 52% of survey
respondents. Of those who were affected, 29% were laid off, 19% had their hours or pay reduced and 18% were
furloughed.
SEE CHART
Moreover,
Millenials recorded the greatest share of layoffs by generation...
SEE CHART:
.. and low
income workers were much more adversely affected than middle and high income
workers.
SEE CHART:
To help
offset lost wage income, Congress, amongst other actions, sent out one time
stimulus checks to households. Of those who received the checks, most planned
to spend it on necessary items: bills, debt, or food and groceries.
SEE CHART:
IN theory,
these checks should provide temporary help to those whose job status were
affected most by the virus, in practice, the process has been riddled with
delays and errors.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Obama is guilty of the highest
crimes a President can be guilty of...
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31% of
Americans would remain under quarantine even if local governments issued a
notice to go back to normal day-to-day activities in order to prevent an
economic collapse.
====
A 'drastic departure' and 'abuse of discretion'
according to the Supreme Court...
====
Goalposts
moved into the stratosphere...
====
Once only
'covert policy' within the CIA, it's now
the official mission...
====
...even with the state’s stonewalling, the information we now know paints a compelling case for a far different
reopening plan than Gov. Pritzker has introduced...
….
….
Check how cities exposed to wars
& military drills (including soldiers back to home town) and you will get a
better understanding of pre-existing condition for
COVID-19. IN SHORT: wars & military drills
damage the world environment and predispose the entire world to many more pandemias if WW3 starts.
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Dems & Reps: evil twins that our Nation has to defeat.
D/m who win-lose in elect circu
The suburban Los Angeles seat
came up for grabs when Hill resigned in 2019, amid allegations of an inappropriate relationship with at least one
staffer...
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The poor prefer to be infected while working than in poor building of Health System
"Late
last month, Kemp started allowing businesses to reopen as he ended his
shelter-in-place order."
====
One reporter (Am-Chinese) asked Trump Why we can’t control
CV-19? He said: because of China.
La reportera enmudeció, no esperaba esa barbarie como Resp.
Dear shareholders and monopolists: the banquet of consequences is being served. Don't choke on the
cold serving of karma...
….
….
Trump’s xenophobic-answer to the Amer-chinese reporter is part of our moral bankruptcy. Niklas Lutmann dijo que cuando ocurre una
crisis grave (como la explosión en una
mina) se empieza por el efecto, no por la causa. NL pregunto para que sirve un Presid sino para ordenar que el sistema salud sea
efectivo en la solución del prob concretos. Y esto fue lo que hizo China cuando
estallo el CV-19. Ordeno a los cientistas que estudien la estructura interna
del virus y las solución que se dio
antes a virus similares, para que luego proponer posibles soluciones. Llamo a los virólogos mas avanzados de Europa
y los 1ro en llegar fueron los franceses. Con ellos empezó la investigac
mientras a la población infecta se los encerró en sus casas; se salvó a los
menos infectos en hospitales y centros de salud especiales . Murieron muchos, pero se salvó a Mill de la
inmensa Poblac China. En el US no tenemos un real sistema de salud pública,
todo está privatizado y los 1ros en recibir Mill de USD fueron las Corp que
lucraron con la pandemia. Y encima nos tocó un Presid infectado con la rabia
anti-asiática, la rabia anti-latina y el anti-poor people. Su amor por los
billonarios dejo claro que no tenemos Presid para todos ni un sistema de Gob
para todos. Si la xenophobia no es delito penado en el US, si es grave delito moral y ético. Es una conducta inmoral y es falta de principios y valores éticos y
esto es lo que ocurre con nuestro Presidente, él es solo uno más de lo que
llamamos cultura moral en bancarrota.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression
is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
'If the NBA
wants to win its way back to the Chinese mainland market, it should properly
handle Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.'
====
At no time since Ibn Saud first consolidated his Arabian
conquests into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 has the ruling Saud dynasty
faced such an existential threat to its
continued rule over the country...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI
ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
FMI presta 3.483 mill de dólares a 11 países de Am-Lat,
pero con 'recetas' de ajuste https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352952-fmi-prestamos-america-latina-recetas-pospandemia
Operación Gedeón: su impacto en Col https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353066-secuelas-operacion-gedeon-impacto-colombia-incursion-fallida
US acusa a China de intentar robarle datos sobre la
vacuna contra el CV https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353073-fbi-hackers-chinos-robo-datos-coronavirus El ladron cree que todos son de su misma
condicion
OMS: "Es posible que este virus nunca
desaparezca" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353069-oms-posible-virus-no-desaparezca
MX: la
pandemia afecta la búsqueda de sus hijos desaparecidos https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352914-todo-paralizado-madres-desaparecidos-mexico-coronavirus
'Asesino de tanques': así son los misiles rusos
Kornet vistos en cámara lenta (VIDEO) https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352813-lanzamiento-camara-lenta-misil-antitanque
Cuba critica a US por incluirla en la lista de NAC
que no cooperan contra el terrorismo https://actualidad.rt.com/video/353094-cuba-critica-eeuu-catalogarlo-no-cooperante-contra-terrorismo Cuba es el país que más denuncia el terrorismo
imperial, el peor d/t
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Al
parecer esta Buena prensa la cerro el terrorismo imperial
CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and
Stacy discuss Elon Musk’s comment on the power of memes to go viral. His fear
is that AI will one day weaponize this power. In the meantime, there is bitcoin
with its community of memers and the power of the ‘money printer go brrr’
to topple the fiat establishment. In the second half, Max interviews Raoul
Pal of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group about the arrival of Paul
Tudor Jones into the bitcoin space and whether or not this will spur interest
from the larger hedge fund investors.
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Lawmakers
around the world have called on the IMF to cancel massive amounts of debt in
the world’s poorest countries due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. The IMF
has loaned billions to nations facing economic turmoil. Plus, the head of the
Federal Reserve has issued its outlook on what the economy needs to avoid
falling even further, including more stimulus to pull the US economy out of the
downturn.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Testing,
Reaching and Contacting Everyone (TRACE) Act. Towards a Totalitarian State? By Renee Parsons,
….
….
DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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