jueves, 14 de mayo de 2020

MAY 13 20 ND SIT EC y POL



MAY 13 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Don’t Panic.. cuando la muerte acecha.. no hay espacio para el pánico ni el miedo. Solo hay ganas de morir de pie y no de rodillas

For the second day in a row, it was not pretty in equity market land...
Small Caps are worst on the week, followed by Trannies with Nasdaq best but still down hard...
See Chart:

Three main themes stood out that spoiled the promise of a v-shaped recovery!...
Billionaires are ringing alarm bells - Druck, Tepper, & Lasry - the market's way overvalued and hopes of (and pricing in) a v-shaped recovery are a fallacy.
Stocks are decoupled from reality...
See Chart:

US Market CAP vs GDP . Valuation? is extreme to say the least (despite the plunge)...
See Chart:

Trump didn't like their view... He said:
When the so-called “rich guys” speak negatively about the market, you must always remember that some are betting big against it, and make a lot of money if it goes down. Then they go positive, get big publicity, and make it going up. They get you both ways. Barely legal?

A Fearful Fed Chair - Powell warned of a prolonged recession but said no negative rates... we promise! No really, we really really mean it this time... but the economy is really in a bad way and unless we get more fiscal we are cornered... into maybe cutting rates negative..

The market refuses to give up hope for negative rates...  [but they are]
See Chart:

Which is concurrently crushing bank stocks..
See Chart:

China vs. US?  it appears vol is striking US more than China... for now!
See  Chart:

The 'Virus Fear'-Trade has been soaring despite the broad indices recent gains...
See Chart:

FANG Stocks fell for the 2nd day in a row...
See Chart:

The last two days have been the biggest drop in long-momentum since mid-March...
See Chart:

Dow and Small Caps pushed down towards key technical levels...
See Charts:

And the VIX term structure notably inverted...
See Chart:

It would seem that The Fed can't save HY bonds everyday (HYG tumbled today and LQD rolled over from a pop open)..
See Chart:

The yield curve notably flattened...
See Chart:

Another v-shaped recovery in the dollar today...
See Chart
Bloomberg Dollar Index

Oil prices were volatile once again with OPEC demand cuts and EIA inventory draws...
See Chart:

Finally, where's the beef?
See Chart:
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"Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities hitting the market within the next month!"
Previously the Fed had estimated that $100 billion in QE has approximately the same short term impact on growth as 3 bps of rate cuts. This equivalence means that in order to provide a 1% of “rate equivalent” easing, the Fed would need to grow the balance sheet by roughly $3.3 trillion.
Ultimately, the argument is that the drain of duration supply dominates maturity selection implicit in Fed purchases, causing the term premium to decline." This is shown in the chart below.
SEE CHART:

Even more term-premium distortions aside, the Fed has no choice as we explain below. Because, as crazy as it may sound, despite the Fed's massive liquidity injection to date which has pushed the Fed's balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $6.7 trillion since mid-March, it is not enough and to ensure that the problem of the -1% r* is addressed without cutting rates negative - a problem which is now manifesting itself in a chronically high dollar, i.e., dollar shortage, which has failed to normalize back to pre-crisis levels as shown below...
SEE CHART:

... the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet trillions.... And it will have to do it very soon!
The reason? There is a flood of liquidity-draining issuance on the horizon.

As Skyrm further explains, with QE purchases winding down - recall that last Friday the Fed cut its daily POMO average to just $7 billion from $75 billion two months ago...

SEE CHART:

.. the deluge of more Treasury supply will ultimately push rates higher.
But in the near term, things are about to get scary: as Skyrm calculates, "there are $79 billion CMBs settling tomorrow and $39 net new Treasurys settling on Friday for the refunding. But that's just the start. All total, there are $689 billion net new Treasurys settling during the month of May and $992 billion net new Treasurys settling between now and June 15. Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities hitting the market within the next month!"

SEE CHART:

His conclusion: "That means the market needs to come up with about one trillion dollars to pay for those securities over the next month." Which, of course, is a euphemism because we all know who in the market needs to come up with one trillion dollar - the only one who literally prints money: the Federal Reserve.

For those who missed all that, here is the layman's version: the Fed has flooded the system with liquidity... and it is not enough, because the way helicopter money works, is that liquidity supply (the Fed), and liquidity demand (Treasury via debt issuance) go hand in hand, and periods of too much supply, as was the cash with the Fed's massive QE in late March and early April, are promptly followed by periods of dramatic liquidity demand, such as the next month when $1 trillion in liquidity will be drained to fund the US government "money helicopter."

As a result, Powell faces a two-fold problem: since the Fed chair has taken negative rates off the table, Powell has no choice but too boost QE again, and unleash another firehose of liquidity in the financial system.
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SOURCE:
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Somewhere Carl Icahn is cackling madly as he rolls in the profits.

Good things come to those who wait, and are willing to shoulder big losses as they wait for a massive payoffs, and for the likes of Carl Icahn, McNamara and others who were short the CMBX, payday arrived in mid-March, just as the market collapsed, hammering the CMBX Series BBB-.
SEE CHART:


And while the broader market has rebounded since then by a whopping 30%, the trade also known as the "Big Short 2" has continued to collapse and today CMBX 6 hit a new lifetime low of just $62.83, down $10 since our last update on this storied trade several weeks ago.
SEE CHART
SOURCE
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The latest consumer confidence survey conducted by Bank of America, the recovery will be long, hard and very painful.

According to a report from BofA's economist team, the bank's US Consumer confidence index (USCCI) dropped from 43.4 to a new low of 42.8 on May 11. The details show that consumers are increasingly pessimistic on the current outlook, as the current conditions index fell from 36.0 to 34.5, while the expectations index increased from 50.8 to 51.1.
SEE CHART


BofA found that COVID-19 directly affected the job status for 52% of survey respondents.  Of those who were affected, 29% were laid off, 19% had their hours or pay reduced and 18% were furloughed.
SEE CHART


Moreover, Millenials recorded the greatest share of layoffs by generation...
SEE CHART:


.. and low income workers were much more adversely affected than middle and high income workers.
SEE CHART:


To help offset lost wage income, Congress, amongst other actions, sent out one time stimulus checks to households. Of those who received the checks, most planned to spend it on necessary items: bills, debt, or food and groceries.
SEE CHART:

IN theory, these checks should provide temporary help to those whose job status were affected most by the virus, in practice, the process has been riddled with delays and errors.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Obama is guilty of the highest crimes a President can be guilty of...
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31% of Americans would remain under quarantine even if local governments issued a notice to go back to normal day-to-day activities in order to prevent an economic collapse.
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A 'drastic departure' and 'abuse of discretion' according to the Supreme Court...
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Goalposts moved into the stratosphere...
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Once only 'covert policy' within the CIA, it's now the official mission...
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...even with the state’s stonewalling, the information we now know paints a compelling case for a far different reopening plan than Gov. Pritzker has introduced...
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Check how cities exposed to wars & military drills (including soldiers back to home town) and you will get a better understanding of pre-existing condition for COVID-19. IN SHORT: wars & military drills damage the world environment and predispose the entire world to many more pandemias if WW3 starts.
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Dems & Reps: evil twins that our Nation has to defeat. D/m  who win-lose in elect circu
The suburban Los Angeles seat came up for grabs when Hill resigned in 2019, amid allegations of an inappropriate relationship with at least one staffer...
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The poor prefer to be infected while working  than in poor building of Health System
"Late last month, Kemp started allowing businesses to reopen as he ended his shelter-in-place order."
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One reporter  (Am-Chinese) asked Trump Why we can’t control CV-19? He said: because of China. La reportera enmudeció, no esperaba esa barbarie como Resp.
Dear shareholders and monopolists: the banquet of consequences is being served. Don't choke on the cold serving of karma...
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Trump’s xenophobic-answer to the Amer-chinese reporter  is part of our moral bankruptcy.  Niklas Lutmann dijo que cuando ocurre una crisis grave (como la  explosión en una mina) se empieza por el efecto, no por la causa.  NL pregunto para que sirve un Presid  sino para ordenar que el sistema salud sea efectivo en la solución del prob concretos. Y esto fue lo que hizo China cuando estallo el CV-19. Ordeno a los cientistas que estudien la estructura interna del virus y  las solución que se dio antes a virus similares, para que luego proponer posibles soluciones.  Llamo a los virólogos mas avanzados de Europa y los 1ro en llegar fueron los franceses. Con ellos empezó la investigac mientras a la población infecta se los encerró en sus casas; se salvó a los menos infectos en hospitales y centros de salud especiales .  Murieron muchos, pero se salvó a Mill de la inmensa Poblac China. En el US no tenemos un real sistema de salud pública, todo está privatizado y los 1ros en recibir Mill de USD fueron las Corp que lucraron con la pandemia. Y encima nos tocó un Presid infectado con la rabia anti-asiática, la rabia anti-latina y el anti-poor people. Su amor por los billonarios dejo claro que no tenemos Presid para todos ni un sistema de Gob para todos. Si la xenophobia no es delito penado  en el US, si es grave delito moral y ético.  Es una conducta inmoral  y es falta de principios y valores éticos y esto es lo que ocurre con nuestro Presidente, él es solo uno más de lo que llamamos cultura moral en bancarrota.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


'If the NBA wants to win its way back to the Chinese mainland market, it should properly handle Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey.'
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At no time since Ibn Saud first consolidated his Arabian conquests into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 has the ruling Saud dynasty faced such an existential threat to its continued rule over the country...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

España   NIEBLA    Manuel Ruiz Robles
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

FMI presta 3.483 mill de dólares a 11 países de Am-Lat, pero con 'recetas' de ajuste   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352952-fmi-prestamos-america-latina-recetas-pospandemia
US acusa a China de intentar robarle datos sobre la vacuna contra el CV   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353073-fbi-hackers-chinos-robo-datos-coronavirus   El ladron cree que todos son de su misma condicion
OMS: "Es posible que este virus nunca desaparezca" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/353069-oms-posible-virus-no-desaparezca
MX:  la pandemia afecta la búsqueda de sus hijos desaparecidos  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352914-todo-paralizado-madres-desaparecidos-mexico-coronavirus
'Asesino de tanques': así son los misiles rusos Kornet vistos en cámara lenta (VIDEO)   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352813-lanzamiento-camara-lenta-misil-antitanque
Cuba critica a US por incluirla en la lista de NAC que no cooperan contra el terrorismo https://actualidad.rt.com/video/353094-cuba-critica-eeuu-catalogarlo-no-cooperante-contra-terrorismo  Cuba es el país que más denuncia el terrorismo imperial, el peor d/t
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
Al parecer esta Buena prensa la cerro el terrorismo imperial



Max and Stacy discuss Elon Musk’s comment on the power of memes to go viral. His fear is that AI will one day weaponize this power. In the meantime, there is bitcoin with its community of memers and the power of the ‘money printer go brrr’ to topple the fiat establishment. In the second half, Max interviews Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group about the arrival of Paul Tudor Jones into the bitcoin space and whether or not this will spur interest from the larger hedge fund investors.
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Lawmakers around the world have called on the IMF to cancel massive amounts of debt in the world’s poorest countries due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. The IMF has loaned billions to nations facing economic turmoil. Plus, the head of the Federal Reserve has issued its outlook on what the economy needs to avoid falling even further, including more stimulus to pull the US economy out of the downturn.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team


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