MAY 10 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The dumb
money is once again making a mockery of the "smartest men in the
room"... at least for now.
Within
systematics, vol control investors have continued to rise mostly thanks to the
fast drop in the VIX, which closed below 28 on Friday:
SEE CHART:
CTA positioning, while off the
lows, are still short and as Nomura's Charlie
McElligott wrote on Friday, a ways away from either buy or sell thresholds.
SEE CHART:
Predictably,
and similar to Warren Buffett, hedge funds remain out of the picture, their
beta to markets barely budging in recent weeks and just shy off all time lows.
SEE CHART:
At the same
time, all those funds who jumped on the short side, confident that this was
finally it, have gotten crushed amid the biggest short squeeze in history
(thanks, Fed)...
SEE CHART: “Most
Shorted” Stocks
Finally, a
familiar chart from 2019 and years prior: the S&P levitates higher even as
investors pull money from stock funds, i.e., sell.
SEE CHART:
Meanwhile,
not only are institutional investors not buying, their positioning had turned even more bearish into
the April/May rally, causing much pain and even more relative losses.
SEE CHART
Agregated US Equity Future Positions
Which bring
us to a previous picture N. 5
SEE CHART: Discretionary
vs Systematic Equity Positions
….
SOURCE:
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"The
real concern should be the fallout from the inflation that’s going to accompany
any recovery we have and the possibility of a return to 1970s-style
stagflation."
SEE CHARTS
….
SOURCE:
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Central banks are massively injecting liquidity, but a solvency crisis is not solved with more
liquidity...
The recent jobless claims figures show how difficult it will
be for the U.S. recovery to
be as quick and strong as initially expected.
- 7.7 million jobs were lost in Hospitality and Leisure in April, 2.5 million in Education and Health, with 2 million in Retail and another 2 million in Professional Services. These sectors are unlikely to recover fast and enough to compensate the job losses of the past month and even less likely to see the same level of wages of 2019.
- Credit card delinquencies are rising, and retail sales are going to see a very modest recovery because household debt is increasing, wages are under pressure and most citizens are changing their consumption patterns, looking to strengthen their savings in case another shock arrives.
- Corporate debt is rising to new records due to the collapse in operating revenues. As such, companies will likely take all possible measures to conserve cash flow, reduce expenditure and be prudent about hiring decisions. This will lead to slower job creation and investment even once the economy opens.
- Tax increases are likely to affect the recovery. The government deficit is soaring, with the Treasury looking at $2 trillion of new debt in 2020 due to the measures implemented to combat the economic impact of coronavirus. Unfortunately, the Democrats are looking to increase taxes just when the economy needs more investment and attraction of capital. If taxes rise significantly, what is already a weak outlook for capital expenditure and job creation is likely to worsen.
The eurozone has
made a very agressive experiment trying to hide soaring unemployment under
government-financed temporary lay-off schemes..
This will likely lead the eurozone into a
debt crisis like the 2011 one and with similar ramifications.
Central banks are massively injecting liquidity, but a solvency crisis is not solved with more liquidity.
Government debt spreads are already rising in the eurozone despite an
unprecedented quantitative easing program from the ECB.
The
combination of a rigid labor market, high government spending and rising taxes
will also likely impact the eurozone recovery, which is likely to be weaker,
more prolonged and with higher unemployment than the United States one.
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"There are a number of concerns and risks exist that we believe, and
our client discussions confirm, investors are downplaying."
SEE CHART:
Current P/E valuation based on
2021 EPS scenarios
Goldman strategist has listed not one but six catalysts that justify a
500+ point drop by the end of July:
First, COVID-19 infection rates outside of New
York continue to grow.
SEE CHART:
Second, the re-start process will take time.
Third, bank loan loss reserves in 1Q totaled $46
billion vs. $49 billion for full-year 2019.
Fourth, dividends are also at risk.
Fifth, domestic politics. The presidential
election is six months away. The 2017 tax reform a the tax law could be reversed depending on the election result, However, the tax law could be reversed
depending on the election result, i.e., if Biden wins. If so, 2021 EPS would fall by $19
and imply a P/E multiple 15% higher than the already stretched
valuation (assuming anyone still cares about fundamentals).
SEE CHART:
Prediction market probability that Dems have control after 2020 elections
Sixth, global politics. Investors may need
to contend with another twist in US-China trade/strategic development, which
was at the forefront of investor concerns for much of 2019. IF US administration's rhetoric and
actions towards China turning more hawkish , the merchandising and
service trades will affect severely the US Economy.
The Goldman ‘s foreseeable future is seen with this index (currently at 1
out of 10)...
SEE CHART:
... which will tick up progressively over the next few weeks, at least
until a new corona "event" emerges.
And speaking of retail investors flooding into
stocks since the start of the pandemic, take just one look at what is going on
in Robinhood, where retail investors are - for lack of a better word - going
nuts now that the Fed has effectively taken risk off the table.
SEE CHART:
Total number of stock postions at
Robinhood (In Millions)
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"There’s
a paradox...Social isolation protects us from a contagious, life-threatening
virus, but at the same time it
puts people at risk for things that are the biggest killers in the United
States..."
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What if the crisis is one without end – like George Orwell’s perpetual
war in his novel 1984?
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Keep in mind the fear of future & Pharma & MIC will
capture you.
"Americans
are turning to medications for relief, demonstrates the serious impact COVID-19
may be having on our nation's mental health."
….
Pharma will sell more fake
medication & the PENTA-MIC more weapons.
They are two of main profiteers of the covid-19 pandemia. There are
other, of course
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If the VP got the
CV.. why not you> I the logic. Will
you fear?..is expect felling. Don’t be
Pence is
following FDA Chief Stephen Hahn into self-quarantine...
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“This is a cabal of liars of
the Obama administration senior officials... all of them need to be investigated...”
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Light
weight 'fast boats' were equipped
with machine guns and ammunition.
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"We hold America responsible for Iranians' safety
amid the new coronavirus outbreak."
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WAR STUPIDITY SPREAD
faster than CV pandemia. Once WW3
Starts, Billions will die
Dozens of
Indian and Chinese soldiers were injured in a cross-border clash involving
fistfights and stone-throwing at a remote but strategically important mountain
pass near Tibet.
….
Is the US involve I n this
conflict? Of course it is.. The US
Embassy in India manage to stop Nation uprising against the puppet dictator in
India, because the army was divided. Now
the US has the perfect ally in the WAR against China. A new uprising in
India agst the Govt is about to start.. If they manage to close the US Embassy
before.. the puppet in India is gone & peaceful relation between INDIA-CHI
will be re-started. Let’s see what happens: is war vs. peace
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Andrew
Cuomo Notifies Other US States of Mysterious COVID-Related Illness in Children
as Three Die
- One
Song, 29 Languages: People From Around the World Perform Soviet WWII Victory
Anthem in a Video La Victoria
contra el fascism la debemos a RU. Nadie
en su sano juicio podria discutirlo. Menos el US que jamás actuó como
debió hacerlo. Punto.
- New
Israeli Government's Swearing in Ceremony Postponed Over Mike Pompeo's Visit,
Reports Say Ni que dudarlo:
nos gusta la seudo Democ de los genocidas Israelis.
- Beijing
Intensifies Military Presence in South China Sea in Light of Growing US
Activities in Region
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
Venezuela: capturan al sobrino de Clíver Alcalá y
otros 7 "terroristas" del fallido ataque https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352740-militares-venezuela-capturar-sobrino-cliver-alcala-siete-terroristas-incursion
Avianca, la 2da aerolínea más grande de Am-Latina,
se declara en quiebra por el CV-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352716-avianca-segunda-aerolinea-grande-america-declararse-quiebra-covid19
US registra
776 muertes por covid-19 en las últimas 24 horas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352731-eeuu-registra-776-muertes-covid-baja-marzo
China responde a 24 "acusaciones absurdas"
de Washington sobre el coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352691-china-refutar-mentiras-politicos-eeuu-coronavirus
Warren Buffett explica por qué EE.UU. nunca será
incapaz de pagar su deuda https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352695-buffett-explicar-eeuu-no-cesara-pagar
Hong Kong :se infectan con nueva cepa de la
hepatitis E transmitida por ratas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352698-personas-hong-kong-infectan-nueva-cepa-hepatitis-transmitida-ratas
Relator ONU para Tortura tiene "miedo a las
democracias" después del caso Assange https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352680-relator-onu-tortura-miedo-democracias-caso-assange
US: aparece otra plaga peligrosa poco después de los
avispones asiáticos 'asesinos' https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352673-aparece-eeuu-otra-plaga-peligrosa-despues-avispones-asesinos
Líderes mundiales felicitan a Rusia por el 75.º
aniversario del Día de la Victoria https://actualidad.rt.com/video/352649-lideres-mundiales-felicitan-rusia-aniversario-dia-victoria
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Chris
Hedges talks to Matthew Hoh, former US Marines company commander, about the
high rates of veteran suicides. Hoh served two tours in Iraq as a Marine and
also worked as an official within the State Department. He resigned his
position as a State Department political officer in Afghanistan in 2009 in
protest at the Obama administration’s escalation of the war
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At first
glance, it might seem that Covid-19 doesn’t discriminate between rich and poor.
Still, New Yorkers living in lower-income parts of Queens, the Bronx and
Brooklyn run a higher risk of contracting the virus and dying from it than
residents of wealthier neighborhoods. The inequality of the American healthcare
system, focusing on profit, exacerbates the situation.
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26 million
citizens of the former Soviet Union died. The Soviet sacrifice was enormous.
With four-fifths of Nazis killed by the Red Army, is it any wonder that Winston
Churchill said it was the Red Army that tore the guts out of the Weimar.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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