MAY 18 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Boys that escalates quickly
"I mean, that really got out of hand fast..."
Futures show the mania started early (Powell), was extended before
the open (Moderna's vaccine headlines), and extended around the EU
close (Merkel &Macron)...Small Caps were the biggest gainers (futs were limit up just
ahead of open) with Nasdaq the laggard on the day...a weak close was notable
however...
See Chart:
In fact, Powell's
promise to do "whatever it takes" sparked the greatest opening buying pressure in history at
today's open...(Who the hell was
seriously surprised by anything Powell said?)
See Chart:
But the Moderna meltup really took
it to '11':
See Chart:
- *TRUMP SAYS TODAY WAS VERY BIG DAY THERAPEUTICALLY
- *TRUMP SAYS TODAY WAS BIG DAY FOR CURES, VACCINES
- *TRUMP SAYS THERAPEUTICS, CURES MORE IMPORTANT THAN VACCINES NOW
So, to clarify the day's early action - we soared on the back of Fed fears
and promises to print more due to bad news and we soared on positive vaccine headlines which would end the bad news.
Macron and Merkel made some promises they can't keep alone
(i.e. the Dutch among others have to agree to the joint debt malarkey) but that
didn't matter today. The
euro soared and peripheral debt yields crashed...
See Chart:
Gold was down on the day...
See Chart:
And, aside from a brief spike, the
gold/silver ratio continued to slide...
See Chart:
Bonds were a bloodbath today (all
but 2Y now higher on the month)...
See Chart:
10Y Yields exploded higher today
See Chart:
Powell manage to reignite credit
market exuberance...
See Chart:
The B-Dollar Index was also puked
lower today (EUR strength)
See Chart:
Bank stocks ripped higher today..
See Chart:
The Virus Fear Trade (Long Food,
Short Leisure) plunged...
See Chart:
Another new record highs for FANG
Stocks...
See Chart:
Finally, it seems the market doesn't
need negative rates anymore...
See Chart:
Remember
Remdesivir...
See Chart:
….
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RELATED
"Just because we’ve gotten
away with it for this long doesn’t mean we’re going to get away
with it forever..."
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The US oil production slowdown, China’s domestic gasoline pricing policy, and power market
outlooks on both sides of the Atlantic feature in this week’s pick of commodity
market trends...
SEE Chart:
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I think that politicians
all over America are going to deeply regret overreacting to COVID-19, because
nobody is going to be able to put the pieces back together now that our
economic bubble has burst...
The last recession was really, really bad, but it was never like this. It is time for us to face
reality, and that means admitting that the U.S. economy has plunged into a
depression.
This is already the worst economic downturn that America has experienced
since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and we are right in the
middle of the
largest spike in unemployment in all of U.S. history by a very
wide margin. Of course it was fear of COVID-19 that burst our economic
bubble, and fear of this virus is going to be with us for a very long time to
come. So we need to brace ourselves for an extended economic crisis, and
at this point even Time Magazine is openly referring to this new downturn
as an “economic
depression”. Needless to
say, there will be a tremendous amount of debate about how deep it will
eventually become, but everyone should be able to agree that our nation hasn’t
seen anything like this since before World War II.
In order to prove my point, let me
share the following 10 numbers with you…
#1 According to a study that was just
released by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, more than 100,000 U.S. businesses have already
permanently shut down during this pandemic, and that represents millions of
jobs that are never coming back.
#2 The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now projecting that
U.S. GDP will shrink by
42.8 percent during the second quarter.
#3 On Friday we learned that U.S.
retail sales were down 16.4
percent during the month of April, and that is a new all-time record.
#4 U.S. factory output was down 13.7
percent last month, and that was the worst number ever recorded
for that category.
#5 U.S. industrial production
fell 11.2
percent last month, and that represented the worst number in 101
years.
#6 On Thursday, we learned that the number of Americans that
have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits during this pandemic has
risen by
another 2.9 million, and that brings the grand total for this entire
crisis to 36.5
million. To put that number in perspective, at the lowest
point of the Great Depression of the 1930s only
about 15 million Americans were unemployed.
#7 According to the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago, the real rate of unemployment in the U.S. is now 30.7
percent.
#8 According to a
survey Fed officials just conducted, almost 40 percent of Americans
with a household income of less than $40,000 a year say that they have lost a
job during this crisis.
#9 One study has concluded that 42
percent of the job losses during this pandemic will end up being
permanent.
#10 According
to a professor of economics at Columbia University, the U.S. homeless
population could rise by
up to 45 percent by the end of this calendar year.
We have never seen economic numbers this horrifying, and more awful
economic numbers are coming in the months ahead.
As the
dominoes tumble, it is going to
send wave after wave of devastation through the financial industry, and it is
going to make the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008 look like child’s play.
I think
that politicians all over America are going to deeply regret overreacting to
COVID-19, because nobody is going to be able to put the pieces back together
now that our economic bubble has burst.
Even
before COVID-19 came along, homelessness had become a massive problem in many
of our major cities, and now tent cities are rapidly
multiplying in size.
There is going to be
so much economic pain in the months ahead, and it could have all been avoided
if we had made much different choices as a nation.
But we
didn’t, and so now we all get to pay the price.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/10-numbers-show-us-has-fallen-horrifying-economic-depression
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FACT: La
debacle neoliberal empeoro con la pandemia CV
This is a big enough demand shock (an economic “earthquake”) that virtually any company (U.S. or
international) will struggle for
years...
COVID-19 is still mysterious to
scientists. It has several phenomena that make it problematic:
- Contagious without symptoms;
- A relatively long incubation period;
- Symptoms throughout the body (i.e., blood clotting, COVID toe, organ failure);
- Unknown immunity duration after recovery; and
- Uneven virulence across strains, the population, and within an infection.
COVID-19 hit the developed world first;
presumably in places where there is greater international travel.
With the U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT
rate at 14.7%, the Taylor
Rule implies the Fed funds rate should be less than minus -6% to be
stimulating the economy. If the unemployment rate were to rise to 25% in
May (per Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on 05/10/2020),
the Taylor Rule would suggest the Fed funds rate should
be below minus -16% to be stimulative. I’m not suggesting the Fed will get to
these levels, but it illustrates the scale of the crisis.
SEE CHART:
Global stock markets will fall to new lows
The stock market is fundamentally expensive. The price earnings ratio (trailing) of the S&P 500 is
near 20. Prices will need to come down a great deal before stocks look
secularly attractive. They will have to come down even further if earnings weaken
materially. Multi-decade secular bull markets
have begun when these ratios are below 10 (see chart below).
SEE CHART:
This is a big enough demand shock (an economic “earthquake”) that
virtually any company (U.S. or international) will struggle for years. Even
after the virus and economy improve, paying the huge public debt bills that
economies have amassed will become the focus. Higher taxes will ultimately
weigh on profitability for decades. There will be exceptions (say Clorox or
Netflix, so far), but the majority will struggle.
The chart below puts the U.S. stock
market’s (S&P 500) performance from its recent peak in the context of past
major bear markets. In this view, things have only begun. For
instance, in the Great Depression, it took nearly three years from the peak to
the trough. We are just four months into this.
SEE CHART:
The stock markets went down through
alternating waves of hopes (prices higher) and fears (prices lower). There will be many chapters to COVID-19. We are in the first
one.
The table below shows all of the
bear-market rallies greater than 10% in the cycles identified above. There were several strong rallies. The average length of
those rallies was about two months (1.8). The current rally has lasted a very
similar 1.2 months (assuming 04/29/2020 was the peak).
SEE TABLE
Some worry that the amount of stimulus the U.S. is spending will lead to
hyper-inflation or equivalently, a weakened currency. The fiscal/monetary picture of
the U.S. isn’t as extreme as it is made to be. Japan’s finances are a useful
example of how far a super-power’s credit stretches. On almost any dimension,
Japan’s finances are in worse shape than in the US, Some worry that the amount of stimulus the U.S. is spending will lead to
hyper-inflation or equivalently, a weakened currency. The
fiscal/monetary picture of the U.S. isn’t as extreme as it is made to be.
Japan’s finances are a useful example of how far a super-power’s credit
stretches. On almost any dimension, Japan’s finances are in worse shape than in
the US, and yet their 10-year yield is 0.00% (see table below).
Credit risk should show up first in Japan before we would see
it in the U.S. They are the canary in the coal mine on this issue..
SEE CHART:
All of these things combined portend a continuing
U.S. Treasury bull market (lower yields) for a few more years.
COVID-19 is the equivalent of a 300-year flood. It will be the theme of financial
markets for an enduring horizon.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
“People are really starting to just look
around and say, ‘Man, capitalism isn’t working,’...”
====
"I'm
not going to get hurt by it"
….
Hoy se le agrego ‘ZINC’ y quiza por esto quienes tomaron la receta
de Trump se intoxicaron y murieron
rápido. La denuncia de los intoxicados
la publique en esta red.. la de los muertos .. puede investigarse .. pero no
tiene sentido hoy.
====
Los grandes
‘inversores’ del WS quedaron divididos y quizá para siempre.
It's just
something to keep in mind...
====
En el
béisbol Polit & Econ no se golpea la bola se lanza el bate-boomerang y hay
herido
The Nasdaq
is set to unveil new restrictions on initial public offerings, in a move that
will make it more difficult for some Chinese companies to debut on its stock
exchange.
….
What goes around comes around. El tit for Tat vendrá. La xenophobia is stupid
====
The media seems confused by pollsthat fail to show former Vice
President Joe Biden surging (and some showing Trump pulling ahead with
voters)... truth might be found in a
famous Stanford experiment called “Bobo the Clown.”
====
La polución
militarista continua.. quieren mas
pandemias .. y sepultura de héroes
"Despite
all the euphoria, however, we believe that caution is still advisable: it will
probably take some years before demand recovers to its pre-crisis level."
====
...as long as records have been kept, thesun has never been quieter than it has been in 2019 and
2020... we have now entered “a
very deep solar minimum”.
….
No importa si el
sol se oculta, pero que llueva p sacar el aire Contamin de l casa
====
Mesclar
el agua con aceite no enciende el motor, lo detiene
If Donald Trump wants to get re-elected as President of the U.S. he’s going to have to take out former
President Barack Obama. At this point Obama is the person who most
stands in his path for a second term...
….
ADEMAS, el agua esta sucia y el
aceite malogrado. Eso no va a funcionar
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in
limbo
57-year old
Ambassador Du Wei was found by aides not breathing in his bed Sunday morning.
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"China is not afraid of an independent investigation into the origin
of the coronavirus...[b]ut IF THE INVESTIGATION FINDS IT ORIGINATED IN THE
US, TRUMP'S REELECTION IS DOOMED."
====
White House
slams Beijing's payment as "token" to deflect from mishandling of
outbreak...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Trump Gives WHO 30 Days for 'Improvements',
Threatens Permanent Funding Freeze, End of US Membership
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Cross
Talk: ‘FLYNNGATE’’
Well, it’s
finally happening. The Russiagate hoax sold to the public is unraveling. The
architects of this hoax – along with their accomplices in the media – are being
exposed. What did Obama and Biden know and when did they know it? Will anyone
be held accountable?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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