MAY 5
20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Inconceivable !
"this market is divorced from reality," adding - with a frown at its
outlier nature, "there's such
a strong bid to this market - particularly in the overnight futures trading -
it just doesn't make any sense."
And he is right
Earnings
recession...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs. Nasdaq
Consensus 12m EPS
Economic
recession...
See Chart:
Nasdaq
vs. US Macro Surprise Index
Employment
'depression'...
See Chart:
Nadaq vs.
ISM Syrvey Employment –Based Composite
Health recession...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs. US COVIT Deaths (indv)
But
apart from all that, everything is awesome...
On the day, stocks were up...
Nasdaq
led the day, Dow Industrials lagged...
See Chart:
Futures show the malarkey best
with the late-day dump as Fed Vice-Chair Clarida starting speaking and dared to admit:
“We’re living through the most severe contraction in activity and surge
in unemployment that we’ve seen in our lifetimes,”
"It's important to
make sure the rebound is as robust as possible, but can't minimise that we are
in recession.. a global recession."
See Chart:
It's
not like he said anything we didn't know!!?? BUT everyone dumped...
See Chart:
NYSE Upstick-Downstick
Oil was up
and
Bond yields were up...
See Chart:
UST 10Y
Yield
Gold was up
But Bank
stocks were NOT up...
See Chart:
The
B-dollar Index was NOT up...
See Chart:
Finally,
FANG Stocks...
See Chart:
Fang
Stoks
And the
S&P at 20x P/E...
See Chart:
And
Copper/Gold is not buying this bullshit rally in stocks at all... just like in
January/February...
See Chart:
S&P vs. Cooper n Gold
….
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The 1% has a plan: give me more
money or we de-bank the system
"If unemployment remains elevated
for an extended period of time, and especially if there is not additional
rounds of government stimulus, we’re at some significant risk of cascading
bankruptcies."
….
This is similar to what Matt King pointed out last week in
his latest presentation, showing how just as the coronavirus spreads
exponentially, so do corporate bankruptcies, where without
rescue funding, as many as 60% of all SMEs can run out of cash after a 12 week
shutdown.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/citi%20exponential%20bankruptcies.jpg?itok=RPs3bgg-
Meanwhile, back in the real world, Congress is currently
seeking an additional round of stimulus after almost $3 trillion has been
earmarked for companies and individuals stung by the shutdowns tied to the
Covid-19 pandemic. Yet even companies that have sought payroll assistance, such
as airlines, may have to cut jobs as demand for services is slow to return.
Bankruptcies have already spiked,
with Goldman forecasting the 12-month trailing default rate will increase to
13% over the course of 2020 before starting to decline as the economy
normalizes in 2021.
SEE CHART:
The 2nd exhibit
& the rest of this article has been cut. YES it is fascism
Watch the full interview below: is
also missed
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lazard-warns-cascading-bankruptcies-without-more-stimulus
----
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"...this market is divorced from reality,"
….
As CNBC's Carl Quintinilla admits, this
concentration is exactly what Goldman warned about - that this always resolves the same way...
badly for the broad market as the small number of names are simply
unable to carry the weight for long.
SEE CHART:
The concentration of market cup in
the largest stocks has soared
As the Nasdaq Composite nears unchanged on the year, Ailman
notes that historically, "the other boats don't rise up to [the handful of concentrated
stocks] level, they usually decline down to the rest of the market... and
currently those stocks are priced to perfection."
SEE CHART:
"We're going to be in bear market territory easily for a good nine
months... with no return of the bull market anytime soon."
….
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"People will see this as a
backstop and in the future they will be encouraged to take on really high
leverage."
SEE CHART:
SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/junk-bond-leverage-hits-record-high-fed-rewards-worst-abusers
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In just
six weeks, the
entire global economy has completely come apart
Here the 18 signs:
#1 According to economists surveyed by the Wall Street
Journal, the April jobs report will show that the unemployment rate in the
United States is
now above 16 percent.
#2 U.S. manufacturing orders just
crashed by
the most ever.
#4 Light
vehicle sales in the U.S. just fell to the lowest level that we have seen since
the early 1970s.
#5 The government program that was supposed to get small
businesses through this crisis has been a
tremendous failure… + comment
#6 The
“coming meat shortages” are already here. According to the
New York Post, Costco is now rationing meat and Kroger is warning customers
of very serious supply problems… + comment
#7 Global smartphone shipments were down 11.7
percent in the first quarter compared to a
year ago. That represents the fastest drop on record.
#8 Hong
Kong just recorded the
worst economic contraction in the city’s entire history.
#10 American
Airlines posted a loss of 2.2
billion dollars during the first quarter of 2020.
#12 Fox
Business is
reporting that Hertz is preparing to file for bankruptcy due to
plunging car rental ridership.
#14 Edmunds
is projecting that auto sales in the United States this month will
be down by more than half compared to April 2019.
#15 In Mexico, manufacturing activity is falling at the
fastest pace ever recorded. The following comes from Zero
Hedge… + 2 comments
#16 More
than 30 million Americans have
already lost their jobs, and economists are projecting that millions more
will lose their jobs in the weeks ahead.
#18 White
House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is warning that U.S. GDP could fall by
up to 30 percent during the second quarter of 2020.
For investors, the good news is that stock prices
have bounced back quite a bit after the initial crash, and many market
optimists are hoping that this Fed-fueled rally will keep on rolling.
But others are warning that
this is a trap for bullish investors, and Kevin Smith is openly telling
everyone that this could be the “last
chance to sell” before another huge move downward…
And as bad as things are already, the truth is
that this
is just the beginning.
A whole lot more pain is on the way, and it is going
to shake our nation to the core.
….
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JPMorgan's
latest pension graphiccaptures so much
of what’s wrong with Illinois’ collapsing finances...
SEE CHART
SOURCE:
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40% of banks said they tightened
lending standards for C&I loans in the April survey, compared with net flat
and 1.4% reporting easing standards in the prior January survey.
Consumer loans
The net share of banks reporting tighter
lending standards increased to 38.5% and 16.0% in April from 13.6% and 8.9% in
January for credit card and auto loans, respectively (Figure 8). On the
other hand, net 23.1% of banks reported weaker demand
for credit card loans in April vs 2.3% reporting stronger demand in January,
and net 34.7% reported weaker demand for auto loans, up from 5.4% in January
(Figure 9).
SEE CHARTS:
See more charts at:
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The FED
will no longer be able to
"hold back the tides" i
f interest
rates above 4.5%...
With that skeptical background in mind, Bassman looks at the
opaque future in a time of corona, and contemplates how three key variables -
the velocity of money, demographics (Labor Force growth
rate inflects up sometime between 2023 and 2027 as the increase in Millennials
(1980 – 1996) overtakes the decline in Boomers (1946 – 1964)) ...
SEE CHART:
Annual Population and Labor force
growth rate by decades
The entire market
is now just five stocks - "the primary reason is that the
construction of this capitalization weighted index is no longer a measure of
the value of the overall equity market, but rather of the top five stocks, who
presently make up a -martin line- of 21%."
SEE CHART:
S&p500 NOW MORE CONCENTRATED in
the 5 largest stocks than ever
"Holding the FAAMG at its current 7% decline, the other 495 constituents
would need to decline by 45% to reach that level.
Then in a fascinating observation, using a chart from Minack
Advisors, Bassman
shows that the correlation flips when
the inflation rate is above 2.5%.
SEE CHART:
What does that mean in yield terms? As Bassman notes, the old
rule is that the T10yr rate should tend toward nominal GDP. As such, a real GDP at
2.0% plus an inflation of 2.5% should lead to a T10yr rate of 4.5%.
BASSMAN CONCLUDES WITH HIS INVESTING RECOMMENDATIONS:
For an
investment horizon greater than two years, one should have exposure to large
cap equities. They have the resources to survive the shut-down and will gain
market share as the economy recovers.
Buy quality
intermediate term (4yr to 7yr) fixed income assets. As pandemic fears recede,
the Boomer demographic will reach for yield to fund retirement; and they will
continue to transition out of Equities and into Bonds as mandatory IRA
withdrawals escalate.
OWN
POSITIVE CONVEXITY (ASSETS WITH MUCH MORE UPSIDE THAN DOWNSIDE):
- Buy 7yr into 20yr payers (put options), K = 3.00% @ 225bps;
- Buy USD / JPY calls, 7-year expiry, K = 120 @ 1.75%;
- Own Gold, perhaps 5% of assets;
- Refinance your mortgage - you own the prepayment option;
- Be cautious of embedded leverage (this is why mREITs imploded).
….
----
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Every time Trump complains about
China being held accountable for allowing the virus to spread, the NYT and MSM
journalists insist he should be focused on the problem at hand, not
apportioning blames.
====
Adios al cuentito xenophico contra China. Bye
bye xenophobic story-tell Agst China
"We cannot afford to be blindsided..."
A new
study from Los Alamos National Laboratory has revealed a new, now-dominant strain of the coronavirus which
appears to be more contagious,
according to the authors.
Emerging in early February, the new
strain migrated from Europe to the East Coast of the United States, where it
became the dominant strain across the world beginning in mid-March.
Wherever the new strain has appeared, it's quickly infected far more people than earlier strains which
emerged from Wuhan, China.
In
addition to spreading faster, it
may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the
disease, the report warned.
The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a
website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer
reviewed. That research has been largely based on the genetic
sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.
-LA Times (via Yahoo)
"The story is worrying, as we
see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of
March becoming the dominant pandemic form," said lead author BETTE KORBER, a Los
Alamos computational biologist. "When viruses with this mutation enter a
population, they rapidly begin to take over the local
epidemic, thus they are more transmissible."
See the face of the possible Nobel prize on new Pandemia: BRAVO BETI. We love you, you
and your team deserve a Nobel Prize
----
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As US death toll nears 70,000 most
fear death count far higher but still willing to risk softening of
lockdowns & restrictions.
====
Trump’ inefficiency is clear:
no real plan to main US prob.. other than supportg the rich
The longer the lockdowns are
continued, the more likely it
is that we are going to see
violence erupt...
….
If the Nation & Supreme Court demand his resignation, the dualist
system of democracy (Dems & Reps)
became obsolete. Biden will be forced to compete with a 3rd party and the alliance of socialists + progressive
org will defeat him. He was the result of billonaires fraudulent intervention in the primaries ( case
Bloomberg among others) who openly support the buying of votes. The future is clear: either pacific
transition to democracy (via election
with new rules) or violent
revolution against the collapsing
neoliberat system. If Biden and the billonaries
plan to assault democracy, he wont last even 3 month in P.
====
Campaign 2020 may show us our own democracy at its worst...
====
"We’re all going to be permanently scarred by having lived
through this."
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Maduro
has accused both Trump &
Colombian President Ivan Duque of being behind the failed 'invasion'...
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
- US
Supreme Court Justice Ginzburg Briefly Hospitalized for Gallstone Treatment He will not participate in the oral argument teleconference
tomorrow morning .
----
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
África después
d Omar al Bashir : Qué queda n Sudán de “REV d Dic?
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Trump: la
reapertura causará "algunas" muertes por CV-19, pero "la gente
muere de otras maneras" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/352248-trump-reapertura-eeuu-causar-algunas-muertes-otras-maneras-cuarentena
DE AQUÍ PARA ADELANTE
SOLO COPIARE TITULARES CON NO MAS DE 7 PALABRAS
Me toma mucho tiempo
sumarizarlos en una línea
====
====
INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
The deeper roots of Chinese demonization By Pepe Escobar
-
Beware the Pentagon’s Pandemic Profiteers By Mandy Smithberger
-
Israel's War Crimes Have Killed Americans By Philip Giraldi
-
Hillary/Obama Ticket to Challenge Trump? By Stephen Lendman
-
Five Things Revealed By Dems’ Rehabilitat Of
Bush By Caitlin Johnstone
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Vijay Prashad et al: Defeat
of Military Incursion into Ven on Sunday Morning
L Davidson Where is Joe
Biden?
P Purkayastha U.S.
Trade War Against China Takes a Coronaviral Turn
Mel Gurtov The
Coming New World Disorder
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Remembering
Valentina Blackhorse, Beloved 28-Year-Old Navajo Community Activist Who Died of
COVID-19
- Navajo
Nation Suffers Third-Highest COVID-19 Infection Rate in U.S. with Limited
Healthcare & Water
- Calls
Grow for Mass Release from Ohio’s Marion Prison as 80% of Prisoners Test
Positive for COVID-19
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