MAY 24 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The typical
hedge fund holds 71% of its long portfolio in its top 10 positions, up from 60%
five years ago and just off the record high of 72% at the start of 2019
New Abnormal period,
when we said that buying the most
shorted names while shorting the names that have the highest hedge fund
concentration and institutional ownership is the surest way to generate alpha, to wit:
... in a world in which nothing has changed from a year ago, and where
fundamentals still don't matter, what is one to do to generate an outside
market return? Simple: more of the same and punish those who still believe in
an efficient, capital-allocating marketplace and keep bidding up the most
shorted names.
Bank of America confirmed
in late 2019 when it
showed that going long the most shorted names and shorting the most popular
ones has continued to be not only the most consistently profitable,
alpha-generating strategy, but that in 2019, the top 10
crowded stocks underperformed the 10 most neglected stocks by 23%, the most on
record!
SEE CHART:
According to Goldman, the two stocks with the largest increase in hedge
fund popularity in 1Q – AMZN and MSFT – already ranked among the top stocks in
our VIP list of the most popular hedge fund long positions. This represents the seventh consecutive quarter with the same
top 5 VIPs. AMZN has topped the list in 5 of the last 6 quarters.
SEE TABLES:
And speaking of hedge fund
performance, it will come as a shock to nobody that according to the HFR equity
hedge fund index, the S&P500
and the broadest tracker of equity hedge fund performance are virtually neck
and neck YTD,with the one highlight that one doesn't pay 2 and
20 to buy the SPY, which as we have repeatedly pointed out over the
years, is now explicitly micromanaged by the Federal Reserve itself, once again
begging the question: what's
the point of hedging when central banks will not allow any sustained drop?
SEE CHART:
Drilling further down on the topic
of hedge fund concentration and crowding, both of which are at or near all time
highs, Goldman notes that "hedge fund portfolio concentration rose further
in 1Q, mirroring the sharp rise in total equity market concentration." As a result, the
typical hedge fund holds 71% of its long portfolio in its top 10 positions, up
from 60% five years ago and just off the record high of 72% at the start of
2019.
At the
risk of repeating ourselves again, because we have said this on many times
before, perhaps it is time to remove the name hedge
fund and just call them "concentrated investment" funds.
SEE CHARTS:
In addition to rising
concentration within the
average hedge fund portfolio, crowding in common positions across hedge fund portfolios
also surged, matching the highest level on record as halpless hedge funds
conferred with each other in mid/late March what they should be buying, and
they all appear to have decided on the same handful of stocks.
No surprise then
that Goldman's hedge fund crowding index now matches its previous high in early
2016: "as investors grappled with the largest economic collapse on
record, they shifted
further into already-popular large-cap secular growth stocks, boosting momentum
strategies. Our long/short Momentum factor
has returned 30% YTD, consistent with previous episodes of economic downturn
and increased hedge fund crowding."
SEE CHARTS
As Goldman notes, although aggregate
hedge fund long portfolio exposure to Growth remains shy of its 2016
peak, the most recent filings show
an unprecedented tilt away from Value, which is also attributable to central
banks having crushed any rationality and logic in what Bank of America last
week called a "fake market."
Similarly, the
multi-year rotation of portfolios from Cyclical industries toward Defensive
industries extended during the sell-off, with
Defensives now accounting for more than 50% of long assets for the first time
in Goldman's 18-year data history
SEE CHARTS
That said, aggregate hedge fund net
leverage calculated based on publicly-available data registered 54% at the
start of 2Q 2020, above the 51% exposure at the start of 2020. Exposures
calculated by Goldman Sachs Prime Services show a similar dynamic, with gross and
net leverage falling alongside the market in late February, but net leverage
recovering at the start of the market rebound in late March.
SEE CHARTS
In other words, while hedge funds
rotated their exposure to be increasingly concentrated in just a handful of
stocks, they did so without much enthusiasm. On the other hand, sensing a Fed
bailout, hedge
funds also cut net leverage by less, and stopped cutting at a higher level of exposure,
than they did during other major market drawdowns in recent years.
SEE CHART
As the bank explains, "the
outperformance and increased popularity of growth stocks have lifted the
valuation of our Hedge Fund VIP basket to a new record, both in absolute terms
and relative to the broad S&P 500."
The gap in valuations between the highest multiple and lowest multiple
stocks is now the widest on record outside of the peak of the Tech Bubble. The rotation of fund portfolios
toward already-popular, outperforming growth stocks has
also helped lift portfolio concentration and crowding to record highs (see
Exhibits 13 and 17 above).
SEE CHARTS:
In short, hedge funds may be
performing the same as the S&P YTD, but their Sharpe ratio is a complete disaster, so whoever is invested in
equity L/S HFs better have nerves of steel. Not for nothing, the equity L/S HF
index is dead last in the YTD risk-adjusted return table.
Compare
that to standouts gold and 10Y TSYs, or even just
buying the Nasdaq, and one wonders what is the point of this whole industry
anymore?
SEE CHARTS:
Here's the problem: while the VIP
basket trounced the S&P, the High Hedge Fund Concentration basket has
lagged the S&P 500 by 17% since the market peak on Feb. 19 (-29% vs. -12%).
These stocks have also underperformed in past periods
of severe market stress as hedge fund selling weighed particularly
sharply on the most concentrated positions.
SEE CHARTS
Which brings us full circle to what
we said first back in 2013: short the most widely held, i.e., concentrated
names, and go long the most widely held ones, a strategy that has made money
every year in the past 7 except for one: 2017.
Here,
courtesy of Goldman, is a summary of the 50 most and least concentrated
hedge fund positions.
SEE TABLES:
Finally, since we know that the
only thing that really matters is performance, here is
a snapshot of the Top 20 best and worst performing hedge funds YTD from the
latest HSBC report.
SEE LIST:
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-have-never-been-more-concentrated-same-handful-stocks
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Not even
during the Gilded Age did a handful of companies/oligarchs command more net
worth, political clout and market impact than the 5 tech giants do now
One month ago, Goldman triggered a
modest selloff in growth and momentum stocks, when
it pointed out that the five largest S&P 500 stocks, the
FAAMGS (or MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB) have risen to
account for over 20% of index market cap, representing the highest
concentration on record...
SEE CHART:
... resulting
in the lowest market breadth since the tech bubble...
SEE CHART:
In short, as we wrote - jokingly -
on April 17 that "The
Market Is Now Just 5 Stocks", that's precisely what has happened, with
investors dumping everything but the top 5 names, and creating the biggest
"hedge fund/mutual fund/retail/momentum hotel" ever
assembled in the FAAMGs, with Goldman revealing another stunning
statistic: as of April 30, the 5 biggest stocks are up 10% while the remaining 495
S&P500 companies are lower by a collective 13%.
SEE CHART:
.. as
cyclically-sensitive companies continue to bear an outsized weight of this
recession....
SEE CHART:
... and
earnings estimate dispersion is at a record high (100th %tile) with the highest
uncertainty seen in sectors most directly impacted by COVID-19.
SEE CHART:
But one thing is more certain:
confirming everything said above, JPMorgan finds that the coronavirus
"shock" is accelerating the "winner-take-all" phenomenon (winners being US mega-caps,
secular growth, high profit margin, i.e., FAAMGs) while
economically-sensitive companies are forced to play defense (cyclicals,
small-caps).
SEE CHART:
While this
probably should not
come as a surprise to those who read our articletwo years ago showing that technology-related
company earnings have essentially represented 100% of profits for the last
decade, many are still shocked to find that only tech companies are generating
profits now.
SEE CHART:
Looking ahead, JPM's 2020 EPS
estimate is $120 (vs. consensus $126) and preliminary 2021 EPS range is
$150-160 (vs consensus $164); that means that the S&P is now trading at 20x
JPM 2021 (not 2020) earnings estimate, the highest on record, and that's with
record low taxes. Should Biden defeat Trump and
corporate tax cuts are repealed, do
we hear a 30x P/E?
SEE CHART:
Meanwhile,
the Street continues to revise down 2020 estimates by 28% since Feb to $126,
below where earnings were in 2017 (and this is all adjusted earnings, not GAAP).
SEE CHART:
This EPS estimate implies a real
GDP growth rate of -5% and revenue decline of 5-6%, margin compression of
~250bp, and flat contribution from net buybacks. Depending
on the re-opening and speed of actual economic recovery, with JPM forecasting
that 2020 EPS could swing ~$5 for every +/- 1% change in GDP.
SEE CHART:
By which,
what JPM means is that heads the
mega techs win, tails everyone else loses.
One final point: not even during
the Gilded Age did a handful of companies/oligarchs command more net worth,
political clout and market impact than the 5 tech giants do now.
Back then, the government eventually realized that to avoid a social
uprising and second French revolution it had to break up the monopolies. Will
it do the same now before it is too late?
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/earnings-season-confirmed-winner-take-all-phenomenon-accelerating
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Short news: Horrible
concentration of speculat-capital at expenses of whole Nation
There is no
precedent for record corporate borrowing during a recession. As a result,
investors need to brace for an economy unlikely to resemble the one before,
with an uneven and slow growth, and record corporate failures.
So instead of contracting, which is the typical pattern during the
recession, the flow of private credit has exploded to the upside. Since the start of 2020, commercial and industrial loans have
increased over $750 billion to a record $3.1 trillion. That increase nearly
matches the cumulative increase in corporate bank borrowing of the past 6
years.
SEE CHART:
SOURCE:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
The Sunday
NYT front page says it all...
…..
WE HAVE TO MAKE PACT WHIT CHINA that in March started a vaccine named AD5-NCOV capable of generating antibody against virus & cells T
in 14 days. En
28 dias el Laboratorio de PEKIN se entusiasmó
con los resultados.
Read this: The Latest: China's COVID-19 vaccine trial
shows promising results -- The Lancet from XINHUA
NET: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-05/23/c_139080149.htm
.
En 28 days el LAB de Pekin indico que en 6 meses (July) estarían poniendo
esta medicina a disposición del Público Mundial .
MORE INFORMATION WE CAN FIND IT AT:
Los primeros ensayos de una
vacuna china contra el coronavirus muestran que es segura y capaz de generar
anticuerpos neutralizantes
OPEN: 1ros ensayos de vacuna china muestran que es
segura y capaz de crear anticuerpos N https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354089-primeros-ensayos-vacuna-china-coronavirus-segura-generar-anticuerpos
ABRIR MI JOURNAL DE HACE 3
DIAS: https://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2020-05-24T01:39:00-07:00&max-results=7
En base a estos avances Chinos, los RUSOS también anunciaron sus propios avances:
Científicos rusos se
inyectan esa vacuna contra el coronavirus y revelaron los resultados :
Este 22 de mayo as pruebas de la vacuna
contra el SARS CoV-2 a las que se sometieron varios científicos de manera voluntaria
dieron resultados esperados, ya que desarrollaron inmunidad ante ese
coronavirus y no se detecta ningún efecto negativo. Mas info in TASS: OR en Samsung Smart
TV https://www.etvnet.com/how-to-watch/smart-tv/
Fuente segura:
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WE NEED HEALTHY PACT WITH CHINA: NO BLACKMAILS , NO
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, NO BLOCK TO CHINA
COMPANIES & total respect to their sovereignty in relation to Hong Kong
issues (take out from US Embassy in
China the CIA agents + members of 2 institutions involve in supporting
the Hong Kong uprising). Don’t do
with them what we don’t want on us. No hagas con otro, lo que no quieres que hagan
contigo= basic moral rule & ethical principle.
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"We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of
developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50%
chance that we get no result at all."
Here are some more details from Morgan Stanley's Matthew Harrison:
Six vaccine candidates to watch: Of the 110
vaccine candidates under development, 8 are in clinical studies. We
believe 6 (4 of the current clinical candidates and 2 preclinical) have both a
reasonable likelihood of clinical success and can be manufactured at scale to
be relevant. We see three waves of potential vaccines available commercially,
with those from Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca/University of Oxford and
CanSino likely in the first wave before the end of 2020. We expect vaccines
from J&J in 1H21 and Sanofi/GSK in 2H21.
SEE CHART:
….
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IS THE OFICIAL DATA
FAKE?
"The problem with epidemiologists is that they feel their job is to
frighten people into lockdown, social distancing. So you say 'there's going to
be a million deaths' and when there are ONLY 25,000 YOU SAY 'IT'S GOOD YOU
LISTENED TO MY ADVICE'.
…..
MORE FEAR= MORE MONEY FOR
PROFITEERS OF CV PANDEMIA?
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"The default letters from landlords are flying out the door."
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This will be the first election cycle under Michigan's new 'no-excuse
absentee voting' policy...
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Maybe it was one of the destroyed samples?
====
"We continue to worry – a lot – about how US small business will
recover from the COVID Crisis, primarily because of this segment’s impact on
the American labor market."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"The
bill is jeopardizing the interest of both sides. It is deterring foreign
companies from being listed in the US and is weakening international investors'
confidence in the US' capital market."
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RELATED:
VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN AMERICA'S TOP-DOWN FINANCIAL
AND POLITICAL REALMS IS ACTUALLY TRANSPARENT,
ACCOUNTABLE, AUTHENTIC OR HONEST...
====
"Reunification
between the two sides of the Strait is an inevitable trend of history,no one and no force can stop it..."
====
China sovereignty at stake. Will these puppets sign
separation of CAL-OR+NY-PA-OH?
If the
international community cannot trust Beijing to keep its word when It comes to
Hong Kong, people will be reluctant to take its word on other matters.
….
International community invented: show the list beyond the 5 REP-puppets
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Cunning
Plan to Allow Hong Kong Citizens to Emigrate to UK convert them to
mercena
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
US realiza ejercicios militares con fuego real en golfo
Pérsico en plena tensión con Irán https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354210-eeuu-ejercicios-militares-fuego-real-golfo-persico-iran
Chile "está muy cerca del límite" llego a los 70.000 casos de covid-19 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354231-pinera-sistema-salud-chile-muy-cerca-limite-70000-casos
Pacientes con coronavirus ya no son infecciosos
después de 11 días https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354228-estudio-pacientes-coronavirus-infecciosos-semana-positivo
Estudio indica que la luz solar puede ser eficaz
contra el coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/354186-estudio-indicar-luz-solar-poder-eficaz-coronavirus
ONU insta a Israel a no amenazar con anexionarse
territorios palestinos https://actualidad.rt.com/video/354226-onu-insta-israel-no-amenazar-anexionarse-palestina
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
On the show
this week, Chris Hedges talks to writer, teacher and activist Victor Wallis
about the prospect and need for ecosocialism. Wallis’ book is entitled ‘Red-Green Revolution: The Politics and
Technology of Ecosocialism’.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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