SPECIAL REP on QATAR P2 n P3
WHAT IMPACT THE QATAR CRISIS WILL HAVE ON OIL
and GAS PRICES https://sputniknews.com/business/201706061054354265-qatar-diplomatic-crisis-gas-prices-impact/
Observers
are watching anxiously for the economic fallout from Monday's move by over half
a dozen Arab and Muslim countries to cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. Market
analyst Kyle Shostak says the move could create serious
problems for oil and gas producers and suppliers, and generally destabilize the
market for hydrocarbons.
However:
Speaking to RIA Novosti, Shostak explained that
as far as oil prices are concerned, the crisis is unlikely
to cause any major shocks on the market sending prices upward. "Qatar has the smallest share of oil production
among the OPEC countries. Its output consists of about 600,000 tons
of oil a year," he recalled. Accordingly, the analyst noted that the
impact from Qatar's oil output on futures prices will be minimal,
both in the present situation and for the foreseeable future.
At the same time,
Shostak warned that the situation surrounding Qatar
sows doubt into the recently-signed agreement on a reduction
in oil output, signed by OPEC members, Russia and other major oil
exporters.
"Psychologically,
the effect will be as follows: if there are such serious differences
between OPEC member countries, the very possibility of implementing
such an agreement, which is already so difficult to [carry out], will be called
into question," the analyst said. "Add to that the expectations
about future US production, and this creates a jumpy environment [for
investors] in the near future," he added.
Furthermore,
Shostak recalled that Qatar is also one
of the largest global producers of gas, and the world's leading
producer of LPG gas. "Qatar has contracts
with a large number of countries in the Arab world and
outside it. Egypt, for example, is the largest consumer of its
gas."
That situation is complicated by the fact
that the diplomatic measures taken by its fellow Arab and Muslim
countries will have an impact on all energy traffic flows, the expert added.
Shostak stressed:
Accordingly,
the market analyst says that as a result of the crisis, the
demand for and price of natural gas may go up. "All of this leads to an imbalance in the market,
which will lose its reference point," the analyst concluded.
….
….
SPECIAL REPORT on QATAR P3
'QATAR-FLY' EFFECT: How One Rogue Peninsula Struck Fear In Whole of Middle East https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706061054350355-qatar-diplomatic-row/
Commenting
on the diplomatic row in the Middle East, where seven countries have severed
their diplomatic ties with Qatar, Russian political analysts suggested that
Doha could stop providing financial support to Sunni radicals in Syria, but
this is still a far cry from any rapprochement with Russia, despite its much
criticized closer ties to Iran.
Seven countries
of the region, namely Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab
Emirates, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives keep mounting their pressure
on Qatar over its support of terrorism, meddling
in internal affairs and growing rapprochement with Iran. In relation to this READ:
Alexander Filonik, from the Institute of Oriental
Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, has said that the emirate
Qatar enjoys a double reputation in the Middle East as it has set
against itself all other regional countries.
Its
neighbors are sure, he said, that they are subjects to Qatari
meddling, partially through the broadcasting
of its Al Jazeera channel, partially
through its financing of certain political groups.
However
Qatar's latest rapprochement with Iran has
potentially expanded the spectrum of its support: it now also
supports the Shia groups. The move therefore
fundamentally changes the geopolitical landscape in the region.
[Is
this why Israel-US promote Saudis invasion of Qatar?]
Meanwhile
Alexei Makarkin, an analyst and deputy director at the Center
for Political Technologies in Moscow told Sputnik that such Qatar's
U-turn towards Iran has caused extreme rejection in the Sunni
society.
"Saudi
Arabia is fighting against Iran on two fronts – in Syria and
Yemen. In both cases Qatar formally supports Riyadh. However its covert
rapprochement with Tehran has caused suspicions of a double
game. And there was an immediate reaction," the political
analyst said.
He especially noted that BAHRAIN, which was the first country to cut off its
diplomatic ties with Qatar, has special grounds for concern.
"In
this Kingdom, the Sunni minority which is currently in power, is trying to restrain the Shia majority, which
is being supported by Iran. During the so-called
Arab Spring, Bahrain was in the middle of religious clashes. Qatar's
U-turn towards Iran could drastically alter the internal balance
in this very country," Makarkin said.
Saudi Arabia, he said, also has every ground
for concern. Back in 2011, there was Shia unrest in Bahrain. The
communities of this religious minority are residing in the Eastern
province of the country, the site of major oil supplies
of Riyadh.
SO, Shia rebellion
in Bahrain would be able to hit the very heart of Saudi Arabia.
However
Makarkin suggests that Qatar's turn towards Iran and the Shiite in Bahrain
is just an "attempt of diversification of its foreign policy
ties" and links this geopolitical zigzag
with the personality of Qatar's new Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al
Thani.
THUS:
Meanwhile, Saudi
Arabia is trying to force Doha to abandon its alliance
with Tehran. Under the influence of Saudi
Arabia, the Libyan government, which controls the east of the country and
where General Khalifa Haftar plays a key role, has also broken its ties
with Qatar.
Makarkin also noted that it was no coincidence that
the radical anti-Qatari campaign started right after the historic trip
of Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia and their record high military
agreement aimed at "containment of Iran."
Washington,
he said, tries to enclothe its confrontation with Tehran into a
project of the so-called 'Sunni NATO' or NATO
of the Persian Gulf, a coalition of the
Sunni states against Shiites.
Feeling such Trump's support, Riyadh has decided
to usher its neighbor to submission, he said.
"It is only natural that
the broken conflict is now being fuelled by traditional rivalry
of the two neighbors. Faithful to its
alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, the Qatari are supporting the group
of Misrata-based militias, while Riyadh is betting on rival General
Khalifa Haftar.
In Syria, Saudi
Arabia and Qatar are also supporting different Islamist groups. The information policy of Qatari Al Jazeera,
which provides ground to the critics of Saudi royal family also adds to the mutual annoyance. Riyadh
responds with the accusations of Qatar's
support of terrorism.
Meanwhile the Russian
authorities said that Moscow is interested
in maintaining good relations with all countries in the Middle
Eastern region.
Alexei
Makarkin therefore suggested that the conflict with Saudi
Arabia might force Qatar to cut its financial support of the Sunni
radicals in Syria, but this is still a far
cry from any rapprochement with Russia, despite its much
criticized closer ties to Iran.
Habib al-Saig, editor-in chief of a United Arab
Emirates' newspaper also commented to Sputnik on the diplomatic row.
"Each
country is independent and free. But this freedom
does not mean cooperation with Iran, incitement
to hatred between the Muslims and Christians in Egypt nor
the right to call revolutions in Egypt a coup," he told Sputnik Arabic.
It also does not mean support
of the Muslim Brotherhood, any ties
with Daesh and even Israel, he added. The
Middle Eastern countries have long endured Qatar, but now the
choice is either the change in policies of Qatar, or the change of its leadership, he finally stated.
…
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