jueves, 8 de junio de 2017

JUN 8 17 SIT EC y POL



JUN 8 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



As of Q1 2017 for the first time in US history, household wealth reached a point where it is over 6.6 times larger than inflation-adjusted household disposable income in America.
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"8 years into the biggest auto cycle on record, we appear to be hitting a point of diminishing returns where the tactics required to attract the incremental consumer may be putting even more pressure on the second hand market, leading to adverse conditions for selling new vehicles…"

Morgan Stanley's prediction that used car prices will crash up to 50%, over the next several years, was the primary reason behind their call.


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This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets...
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"The entire status quo is based on the delusion that rapidly rising debt will never generate any negative consequences. Color me skeptical of that working out in the real world."

Here's a chart of America's national debt, extended a mere dozen years into the future: the current $20 trillion in debt will double to $40 trillion, and that assumes 1) trillions of dollars in private and local government pensions don't implode and have to be bailed out by the federal government, a bail-out that will have to be paid by borrowing more money, 2) a recession doesn't slash federal tax revenues, 3) Universal Basic Income (UBI) doesn't become policy, adding $1+ trillion in additional borrowing annually--and so on.


Color me skeptical that doubling the debt in 12 years won't have any negative consequences.
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"May's best-performing sector-saw its P/E expand most last month. At 19x, it trades at its highest levels post-crisis, and is now the most overweight it has ever been, by large cap active funds in the history of our data - particularly FANG stocks."

At the end of May, we highlighted that after an unprecedented buying spree, which has sent the Nasdaq to nosebleed record levels, a crack had appeared in the second tech bubble: after weeks of relentless inflows into the sector, tech had suffered its largest outflow in over a year.


According to Bofa  (Bank of America)
Based on EV/Sales, which would not be impacted by accounting differences such as the inconsistent treatment of stock-based compensation - a large expense for many Tech companies that we estimate could understate Tech's current P/E by as much as 10%, Tech trades at its highest relative multiple since the Tech Bubble, and is trading well above average even when excluding the Tech Bubble (Chart 1).


...which would mean AMZN can easily hit $1,400 before it rolls over, a price which would mean Jeff Bezos' net worth would be roughly $120 billion.
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"it’s the breakdown in the relative strength of Energy laden (17% by weight) High Yield which offers the same, but ultimately much more important signaling. If it were the end, we’d be a buyer, but as it’s the beginning of the end, in our judgement, we are continued sellers."

One month ago, Goldman made an interesting observation: unlike the first big drop in oil prices in 2015/2016 when junk bonds, mostly those of energy companies, dropped alongside oil and in many cases decline with an even higher beta than energy equities, in 2017, the relationship had flipped, and it was HY Energy was resisting lower crude, even as stocks are sliding far more than the recent drop in oil would suggest.

This is what Goldman said:

Spot crude prices have declined by over 12% since their peak on April 11, touching levels last seen prior to the OPEC’s decision to cut production in November. The sell-off has been even more pronounced for longer-dated contracts (on a beta-adjusted basis), reflecting increasing concerns over future balances in 2018 and beyond. In the HY market, the Energy sector has again outperformed its beta to crude over the past few weeks, a pattern that is reminiscent of previous oil sell-off episodes in the second half of 2016 and early 2017 (Exhibit 3). above

This outperformance also contrasts with the sharp underperformance of Energy equities since the beginning of the year (Exhibit 4).  Image location at: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/energy%20vs%20bonds%20gs_0.jpg
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist  duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y corrupto. Urge cambiarlo


"...Comey testimony was a huge win for Trump and pretty much a disaster for the Democratic Party. While Trump will remain under pressure from various investigations, all of the new and important revelations today seems to portray Democrats and Obama cronies in a poor light, while negative stuff surrounding the Trump team (Flynn in particular) was already widely known. This is what happens when you make huge claims of treason and then find you can’t back it up."
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Risch:  "He did not direct you to let it go."
Comey"Not in his words, no."
Risch:  "He said, 'I hope.'  You don't know of anyone who has ever been charged for hoping something, is that a fair statement?"
Comey"I don't as I sit here."
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The market's verdidct was clear: if Comey hoped to cripple the Trump administration, at least based on his much anticipated testimony, he failed.
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Cotton:  "On February 14 the New York Times published a story, the headline of which was "Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contacts With Russian Intelligence."  Would it be fair to characterize the story as 'almost entirely wrong?'"
Comey:  "Yes."
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According to AP, Trump will dispute Comey’s claim that he asked him for loyalty. Trump also disputes Comey’s account of a conversation about the investigation into former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


Qatar's foreign minister said he welcomes the arrival of Turkish troops and adds that "we are not ready to surrender and will never compromise the independence of our foreign policy." Just as importantly, Qatar announced that Iran is ready to help with food and that three of Iran's ports will be designated for use by Qatar.
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During the first week of June, Iraqi oil entered the U.S. at the quickest rate in the past five years – marking the first time the nation’s exports exceeded those from Saudi Arabia...
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While stock markets remain comfortably numb to any and every potential (and actual) geopolitical earthquake, FX markets are getting very anxious...
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In what commentators have dubbed a "clear escalation", moments ago Arab states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain, have released a list that designates 59 individuals and 12 entities in Qatar as terrorist.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol crisis leads to more business-wars:  profiteers US-NATO under screen


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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Tyranny At Home   By Fred Reed


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COUNTER PUNCH  & ZC ZCOMM.ORG/  https://zcomm.org/all-types/  


Neve Gordon – Mark LeVine  After 50 years, Time for a Paradigm Shift
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Patrick Cockburn  The Siege of Raqqa
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view


United Kingdom Parliamentary Snap Election Results
UK 2017 general election preliminary results
Labour                  41.3
Conserv               40.4

RELATED: 1
UK's Conservatives to 'Backstab,' Replace May if Election Loss Confirmed   https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201706091054463004-uk-conservatives-backstab-may-loss/

Iain Begg, research fellow at the London School of Economics' European Institute said in an interview with Sputnik that he expects Theresa May will be forced to resign, if Tories fall short of getting the majority in the parliament.

"This means Theresa May made a huge bet and lost it badly….Theresa May will be forced to resign. She made such a big bet and lost that her party will put a knife in her back. The Conservative party is very ruthless," Begg said.

RELATED 2
Theresa May Could Form Parliamentary Majority Despite Election Downfall  https://sputniknews.com/europe/201706091054458308-may-parliament-majority/ 

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is still likely to form a majority with the help of smaller parties despite the projection of 314 Commons seats is correct, founder of Ipsos MORI, told Sputnik.

"Very surprising. Not a single opinion poll has forecasted this precisely. Only one polls said the Conservatives will be 5 seats short of the overall majority, so they will have to stretch it to form a coalition," Worcester said.

There will be a couple of independent souls who would agree to help them form a majority. We have to hear from the Northern Ireland delegation, they have 18 seats, and there are also Olster Unionists who may be ready to help," Worcester added.
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COMEY TESTIMONY EXPOSES US MEDIA as Tool to Demonize Russia, Ex-CIA Officer Says  https://sputniknews.com/us/201706091054462432-comey-russia-propaganda/

Former Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) Director James Comey's congressional testimony confirms that media is engaged in a propaganda effort to portray Russia as the main enemy of the United States, former CIA officer Larry Johnson told Sputnik.

RELATED
'Not True': Comey Slams New York Times on Trump-Russia Links  https://sputniknews.com/us/201706091054461690-comey-new-york-times-trump-russia/ 

James Comey, fired FBI director, said on Thursday that “the main” point of a February New York Times article alleging Trump aides were in cahoots with Russian spies was just plain wrong. The New York Times, however, has decided to disagree and stand by the intelligence their anonymous sources gave them.
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US NOT FIGHTING AGAINST ISLAMIC TERROR.. It is promoting imperial terror pro-regime-change
US-led Coalition Bombs Pro-Syrian Gov't Forces Near al-Tanf for 3rd Time  https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706081054449906-coalition-tanf-3rd-time-syria/

The US-led coalition has attacked pro-Syrian government forces and shot a drone near the Syrian town of al-Tanf in southern Syria for the third time, the coalition spokesman said.

On May 18, the US-led coalition struck pro-Assad fighters near the town of al-Tanf in the area of an established deconfliction zone with Russia. 

On June 6, the Pentagon announced the coalition conducted a new strike on pro-Syrian government forces as they entered the de-confliction zone with Russia and posed threat to its personnel.

RELATED  1
Al-Tanf Air Raid: Russian Senator Explains How US Forces Can Avoid 'Threats'  https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201705201053819431-al-tanf-us-syria-russia/ 

Russian senator Andrei Klishas replied to US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford's commitment to avoid new strikes against Syrian troops provided there is no threat to US servicemen.

"The Pentagon military apparently do not get the idea that they would not evade threat unless they withdraw from Syria's sovereign territory where they had intruded in defiance of all norms of international law and the UN Charter," Klishas said.

Syrian officials called them an act of aggression and state terrorism by the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the attack "illegitimate," "illegal" and a "gross violation of Syria's sovereignty."  [[ It is in fact a re-declaration of war against Syria. ]]

RELATED 2
Coalition Attack on Syria Might Signal US' Interest in Country's Oil Resources  https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201705201053815658-syria-coalition-attack-oil/

On May 18, the US-led coalition struck pro-Assad fighters near the town of al-Tanf in the vicinity of an established safe zone protected by Russia. Russian Senator Igor Morozov commented to Sputnik on the attack, saying that it might be a signal to Damascus that the US is interested in Syrian oil deposits.

"The strike of the US-led coalition on Syrian pro-government forces might be because the US has become worried by the approach of the allies of Bashar Assad towards Deir ez-Zor, an area rich in oil deposits which the west would like to control," Morozov told Sputnik.

RELATED 3
Moscow Says New US-Led Coalition Strike Near Syrian Al-Tanf ‘Illegitimate’   https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201705191053796343-russia-syria-us-al-tanf/ 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the latest US-led coalition airstrike against Syrian pro-government forces in southern Syria "violation of Syria’s sovereignty."
"The attempts to justify this aggression by the absence of response to a warning to stop the advance are unacceptable," the statement, obtained by Sputnik, read.

“The Syrian Army is really fighting terrorist groups the Islamic State and the Jabhat Fatah al Sham  (both outlawed in Russia) … those, who say that they fight terrorism, should direct their attacks on them and not against the only legitimate Syrian army, which fights terrorism alongside its allies and friends, ” according to the statement.

"Whatever the reason for the decisions that the US command made to carry out that strike was, the strike is illegitimate, it is illegal and a regular gross violation of the Syrian Arab Republic's sovereignty," Lavrov told reporters.
"As for the strike itself, as I know, we are still clarifying all the details, but according to some reports, several dozen civilians died as a result of the strike. I repeat, all this needs to be double-checked," Lavrov said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov raised concerns about the strike’s influence on the process of the political settlement in Syria.

"Any military actions entailing the aggravation of the situation in Syria certainly influence the course of the political process, especially such actions that were committed against the Syrian armed forces," Gatilov said.
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser Report  Episode 1081  Max and Stacy discuss ‘liquidity turbulence’ and ask whether it is the ‘credit crunch’ of our day. 
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight to break with collapsing Empire:  leftist view on alternatives


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                El capitalismo habría muerto de puro éxito  Juan Jiménez
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VEN       Venezuela en disputa (I)  Luismi Uharte
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                Puerto Rico, un fracaso estadounidense en el Caribe  Varios
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Porque fabrican WMD y guerras que benefician oligarquías en el poder: real terroristas
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Bolivia, Chile  El mar boliviano   Jorge Edgar Zambrana  Ya no estamos para guerras:
A re-negociar el tren tras-atlántico que una BRA con Per-Bol y Chile con puerto para BOL
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Keiser Report  1081  Turbulencias de liquidez
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences


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Clinton's arrogance matches Trump's imbecility: Analyst  Related stories:
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Iran brought terror attacks on itself: Trump T still support jihadists.. but they are divided..
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Britons braced for uncertain future Is expected that fear make them vote the Queen of terrorism
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