OCT 7 16 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
The
stage is set for the collapse of the world’s largest economy - the European
Union. The trigger: Italy’s exit from the euro currency.
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With concepts like wealth
effects (the illusion of being rich, when you are not) and propensity to
consume, our leaders actually believe they can sustain economic prosperity
without proper wealth creation. The future path is thus laid down for us and
there is nothing we can do at this juncture to avoid the consequences of our
past folly.
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While GDP forecasts are being
dragged lower from exuberant hockey-stick levels already, today's weakness in
wholesale inventories will do nothing to help. A 0.1% decline YoY is the first
since June 2010 and has always coincided with US economic recessions.
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Stocks & Bonds tumbled this week as risk-parity funds
suffered their biggest loss in over 6 months
See one more chart Bonus
Chart: Stocks are coiling as bonds and bullion slide... AT: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/10/01/20161007_EOD12_0.jpg
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WTI Crude prices are holding below
$50 as the US oil rig count rose for the 15th straight week. Up 3 to 428, this
is the highest since Feb 2016...
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The US Dollar is down over 0.75%
from its overnight highs as the hype of imminent rate hikes and a great economy
crash on the shores of the highest number of multiple jobholders since the
crisis...
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Having spiked above $1265 on
post-payrolls USD weakness, the European close seems to have been the perfect
time for someone to decide to dump $2.25 billion notional gold into the futures
markets, busting the precious metal back below the crucial $1250 level...
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With Wall Street all bulled up
on the economy, expecting a print of 175K while the whipser number was
decidedly higher, and closer to 200K thanks to Goldman's
optimism, moments ago the BLS reported that in September the US created
only 156K jobs, missing expectations, and down from the upward revised 167K in
August, leaving the question of whether the Fed will hike imminently,
unanswered.
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Almost every market participant out there has at least one horrific war story on a crash that profoundly
affected their portfolio or world view.
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POLITICS
Newly revealed emails between
the White House and State Department reveal that, not only was Obama aware of
Hillary's private email server, his administration actively intervened to
suppress the story on her behalf.
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"If Everybody's Watching,
You Know, All Of The Back Room Discussions And The Deals, You Know, Then People
Get A Little Nervous, To Say The Least. So, You Need Both A Public And A
Private Position" - Hillary
Clinton
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More signs of Hillary evidence tampering that, of course, didn't add up
to intent according to the FBI...just a
series of unrelated events and circumstantial evidence that "no reasonable
prosecutor" would attempt to prosecute.
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While Hillary claimed that visiting Louisiana weeks after flooding
would have interrupted recovery efforts, she apparently has no problem
releasing her legal army on Florida to push for voter registration extensions
in the middle of Hurricane Matthew.
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With his latest 102 commutations, Obama has commuted the sentences of a
total of 744 prisoners, more than the previous 11 presidents combined.
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Update: CHAIRMAN OF U.S. SENATE CYBER SECURITY SUBCOMMITTEE TO
INTRODUCE BILL IMPOSING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AFTER U.S. POLITICAL HACKING
ACCUSATIONS
On Friday afternoon, the Obama administration officially and publicly
accused Russia of carrying out a wide-ranging campaign to "interfere with
the 2016 elections," including by hacking the computers of the Democratic
National Committee and other political officials.
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Weekend Reading: Up Down Sideways
Fed / Economy
- The Overlords Of Finance by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- Adjusting The Outlook by Scott Brown, Ph.D. via Raymond James
- The Noose Is Tightening On The Global Economy by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market
- Who Is Driving Global Growth Now by Eric Bush via GaveKal
- Why Americans Feel Poorer by Narayana Kocherlakota via Bloomberg
- Market Is A Fed Created Casino by Bill Gross via Janus Capital
- Two Fed GDP Trackers Show Wilting GDP by Jeffry Bartash via MarketWatch
- Central Banks Worry About End Of The Road by Enda Curran via Bloomberg
- Fed Finally Accepts Slow Growth Forever by Kirk Spano via MarketWatch
- Just Say No by Ed Yardeni via Yardeni Research
- IMF Chief Lagarde Should Resign Immediately by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- The EU Is Doomed: UK Now Fastest Growth Economy by Szu Ping Chan via The Telegraph
- IMF Slashes It’s Global Growth Forecast by David Lawder via Reuters
- The Coming Recession by Simon Black via Sovereignman.com
- Two-Thirds Of Millennials Live With Parents by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
Jobs
- Jobs: Our National Treasure by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- The Number No One Is Talking About by Lawrence Fuller vis Seeking Alpha
- Fed’s Mester: Time To Hike Rates by Matthew Belvedere via CNBC
- Stunning: Part-Time Jobs Soar by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge
- Economy Adds 156k While Jobless Rate Ticks Up by Vicki Needham via The Hill
Markets
- A Rebellion Is Forming Among WallStreet Forecasters by Sam Ro via Yahoo Finance
- Malaise by Comstock Partners
- Markets Mistake Noise For GDP Growth by Robert Johnson via MorningStar
- 3 Reasons Everyone Is Spooked by Anthony Scaramucci via Fortune
- Market Corrections Shouldn’t Make You Worry by Simon Moore via Forbes
- Market Outlook A Little Too Buoyant by Elizabeth Collins via Morningstar
- Major Asset Class Review by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
- Rally Built On Fed As “Greater Fool” by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- Some Possible Insight Into Something by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
- Shiller P/E Sending A False Signal by Justin Lahart via WSJ
- Crispin Odey Goes All Bearish by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Libya Could Derail OPEC Production Cut Hopes by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com
- Weakening Auto Sales Send Ominous Signals by Lee Adler via ContraClub
Interesting Reads
- Britain Starts Brexit; So Might The Banks by George Hay via Reuters
- OPEC Quota Deal May Be No Deal by Tom Stevenson via The Telegraph
- Crossing Swords With Warren Buffett by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets
- No, Tax Cuts Didn’t Cause The Financial Crisis by Keith Hennessey
- Trumped Up Myth Behind Trickle Down Economics by Gary Galles via The Mises Institute
- Timing “Smart Beta” Strategies by Arnott, Beck, Kalesnik via Research Affiliates
- Tax Idea Fair To All Americans by Brett Arends via MarketWatch
- Optimism Or Pessimism? Try Realism by Ira Stoll via Reason
- Housing, Fed Fails To Look In The Mirror by Aaron Layman via AaronLayman.com
- “Buffett Rule” All Wrong by George Harbison via RCM
- The End Of US Dollar Dominance by Axel Merk via Merk Investments
- 10-Reasons You Aren’t A Value Investor by John Mihaljevic via Latticework
- Things Are Getting Ugly In Trucking by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- Post-Crisis Muni Bond Run Nearing An End by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- Cash The Most Hated Asset Class by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
Obama would be committing an
impeachable act if he started shooting down Russian or Syrian planes over
Syrian territory. He might also be putting us on the escalator to World War
III.
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And curious group of markets - India,
Indonesia, The Philippines and Vietnam - have been identified as the best
investing opportunities by a group of leading Asia macro strategists, who think
that Asia and the emerging markets will considerably outperform the developed
world.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Russian Options Against A US Attack On Syria By The Saker
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If Russia Wins Aleppo It's the End of
American Hegemony in the Middle East
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
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ISIS, Not Russia, Is the Enemy in Syria By
Patrick Buchanan
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President al-Assad: Moderate Opposition Is A
Myth Video and Transcript
It’s not acceptable that terrorists will take control of any
part of Syria.
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The
Dreadful Chronology of Gaddafi’s Murder
By Chris Welzenbach
Freedom and justice were never part of the West’s agenda.
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We Live in a Democracy for Dummies By Robert C. Koehler
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COUNTER PUNCH
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Daniel Kovalik The
United States as Destroyer of Nations
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Michael Hudson - Kim Brown
The
Great Recession Hasn’t Really Ended
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Mike Whitney Pentagon
Begins Low-Intensity, Stealth War in Syria
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William Hawes Two
Parties, One Machine
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B. Sidney Smith Eight
Times Wrong: the Logic of Lesser Evil Voting
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
EXCLUSIVE: WikiLeaks Sources Face Serious Charges Following
CIA, FBI, DHS Hacks https://sputniknews.com/us/20161008/1046123910/hacker-facing-charges-wikileaks.html
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WikiLeaks Releases More Emails From CIA Director's Hacked
Account https://sputniknews.com/us/20151027/1029151028/wikileaks-cia-john-brennan.html
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Slapping Terror With Lawsuits by
Pepe Escobar https://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160930/1045881727/slapping-terror-with-lawsuits.html
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RT SHOWS
RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on October 7, 2016 by Charles
Hugh Smith
The unspoken claim of central
bank policy is that risk can be extinguished by intervention/manipulation: once the
Fed has your back, i.e. is supporting the market, risk disappears, and the
easy profits flow to those who buy the dips with supreme confidence in
the Fed’s ability to magically turn risk-assets into risk-free assets.
Unfortunately for the credulous
investors who believe this, risk cannot be extinguished, it can
only be transferred to others or to the system itself.
This confidence in central banks
raises a pernicious systemic risk: assuming the “100-year flood” can’t happen
every 6 years or so. I have from time to time highly recommended The
Misbehavior of Markets. The author, fractal pioneer Benoit
Mandelbrot, explains in simple mathematical ways how Modern Portfolio
Theory, i.e. the management of risk, is based on a faulty conception of
risk and statistical chance.
In a nutshell: while
modern portfolio management is statistically based (all those
“standard deviations” you always see referenced in quantitative analyses), the
markets behave fractally. Fractals are known as the geometry of chaos, for they
describe how seemingly stable systems can quickly, and unpredictably, degrade
into chaos.
But as Mandelbrot explains,
“100-year floods” actually occur with startling regularity in all markets. Put another
way: you cannot disappear all risk with fancy statistical models and credit
default swaps, etc., that offload the risk onto others, i.e. counterparties.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Las consecuencias económicas de la
"dolarización"
Guillermo Oglietti
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PRESS TV
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