OCT 5 16 SIT EC
y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
"In examining some of some
of our favorite indicators’ recent trends, we did find evidence for an imminent
recession. While the range of signals is wide, in aggregate they do suggest
that, if data were to continue to weaken in line with
the recent pace, history would point to a recession in the second half of
2017"
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The IMF sounded the alarm in its
latest
Fiscal Monitor report which revealed something disturbing: at 225 percent of world GDP, the global debt of the
nonfinancial sector, comprising the general government, households, and
nonfinancial firms, is currently at an all-time high of $152 trillion.
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The
global economic recovery would still leave about a quarter of banks in
developed countries too weak to support further growth and susceptible to
future shocks. This means that banks controlling about $12 trillion of assets
would remain vulnerable during a rosy economic environment marked by faster
economic activity, rising interest rates and declining defaults
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"Soft" survey data
from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction
spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a
rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its
so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the
news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.
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While US HY Energy credit risk has collapsed
to 2-year lows, Oil risk remains decoupled...
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While the recently reported
advance trade data showed a far better than expected recent trade picture for
the US, today's official international trade data showed another modest
disappointment, with the US trade deficit in August growing from an upward
revised $39.6 billion to $40.7 billion, well above the expected $39.3 billion,
as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit decreased less than
$0.1 billion in August to $60.3 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.2
billion in August to $19.6 billion.
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The US economy added 154k jobs
in September according to ADP, missing expectations of 165k and down from 175k
revised lower in August. This is the weakest print
since April as manfacturing slows (down 6k) once again, near 3 year lows.
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There has been a 3.9% increase
in the number of young adults living with their parents from 2007 to 2014,
significantly higher than the OECD average. As a
result, today, about 66.6% of American 15- to 29 year-olds live with their
parents as opposed to on their own or with a roommate, compared to around 62.8%
before the crisis.
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At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that
drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market
participants. There is a problem with this kind of economic
model, however. Reality is never kept in check indefinitely. Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way
or another.
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American farmers set to collect $7 billion in
taxpayer-funded subsidies as farm
incomes crash.
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The last two times ISM Services jumped this
much, the US economy crashed into
recession imminently...
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The Fed
has acted in favor of the few and to the detriment of the many. It,
along with its employees, bosses, cronies, and drinking buddies, is firmly
ensconced among the “One Percent” of the Washington-Manhattan axis. Rather than recognize any “conflict of interest,” it ignores
its own biases in order to keep the racket going.
More of the same, is our guess. Hillary in her Heaven.
Yellen on her throne. And now, Fed Governor Lael Brainard is said to have the
inside track for the top job at the Department of the Treasury. Wait a minute…
DJIA, daily. Recently
the stock market has been stuck in a trading range, but last week the market
went up on three days, including Friday. There seems to be a lot of
complacency, which seems not exactly warranted – click to enlarge.
Surface Scum
If the Fed were
really apolitical, it wouldn’t care if stock prices went up or down. Nor would
it care what interest rates borrowers were paying. It would stand back and let
willing buyers and sellers discover prices on their own.
Honest central banks are supposed to keep their distance
from politics – and let the tubs drain. They are supposed to be impartial… and
not just between Republicans and Democrats.
They are not meant to
favor buyers over sellers of stocks, or borrowers over lenders, or labor over
capital. They are meant to protect the realm’s money and nothing more.
Even if “protecting
the realm’s money” had remained their only job, they couldn’t have botched it
more thoroughly if they had tried. The utterly absurd belief that inflation
somehow “creates jobs” has helped to accelerate the process – click to
enlarge.
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POLITICS
While we found it hard to call a
winner in last night's
VP "interruptionfest"debate, others were quicker to note that it
was Trump who was the biggest beneficiary. As the Hill
noted overnight, Donald Trump got help from an unexpected quarter on
Tuesday night as Hillary Clinton's running mate, Tim
Kaine, delivered an uneven performance in the year's sole vice presidential
debate, adding that "stylistically at least, Trump's vice presidential
nominee, Mike Pence, was the clear winner of the encounter."
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The New York
attorney general's office quietly confirmed that the Clinton Foundation failed
to file 3 years worth of supplemental tax disclosures regarding "donors
and contributors." That said, the AG decided not to brag about the
discovery on twitter as he did with the Trump Foundation's investigation.
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A new letter from the House
Oversight Committee blasts the DOJ's "side agreements" with Mills and
Samuelson..."What is the basis for the FBI's
legal authority to destroy records which are subject to a congressional
investigation or subpoena?"
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No US Presidential candidate
since William McKinley in 1896 has received as nearly-unanimous financial
backing from America’s wealthiest 0.01% as Hillary Clinton. What William
Jennings Bryan was to them in 1896, is what Donald John Trump is to them 120
years later in 2016.
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While the US media remains fixated on the fact that Donald Trump did
not pay taxes in 1995,Sputnik
News reports, a major scandal has
been unfolding with the State
Department mysteriously losing an email that documents potential insider
trading on Greek bonds by Hillary Clinton’s son-in-law Marc Mezvinsky.
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We either crush the putrid roach motels of
philanthro-crony-capitalism now or
surrender entirely to pay-to-play racketeering.
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
With much of the public's
attention in recent weeks focused on the escalation between the US and Russia
over the nearly 6-year-old proxy war in Syria, a reminder that middle-east
tensions include virtually all other neighboring countries, came from Iraq's prime minister who on Wednesday warned Turkey that
it risked triggering a regional war by keeping troops in his territory.
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“I
will fight them wherever they are...They are an occupation force that pretends
to be assisting us.” Almost 15 years later, it’s quite clear U.S.
troops continue to be seen as “liberators” by the Iraqis.
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While the United States accuses Russia of “[bombing] civilian
populations into submission,” the U.S. runs the risk of being called out for its own record of aggressive and unsuccessful military
interventions in the Middle East in the past decades.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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China
and the Struggle of Oppressed Nations for Self-Determination, National
Liberation and Socialism By Abayomi Azikiwe,
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Washington's Psychopathic WWIII Gamble By Paul Craig Roberts
Unless the European peoples wake up - the result will almost
inevitably be a thermonuclear WWIII.
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Obama DOJ
Drops Charges Against Alleged Arms Broker Who Was Threatening To Expose Clinton
On Libyan Weapons By Kenneth P.
Vogel and Josh Gerstein
The deal averts a trial that threatened to cast additional
scrutiny on Hillary Clinton
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COUNTER PUNCH
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Ty Moore – Patrick Ayers
The
Disastrous Failure of Lesser Evilism
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Russia's Year-Long Campaign Has Freed Large Part of Syria
From Terrorists
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Brussels’ 'Maneuver' Over Free Trade Deal With Canada to Have
'Side Effect' https://sputniknews.com/business/20161006/1046048841/eu-canada-trade-deal.html
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Pesticides, Gas Attacks and Lobotomies: Nobel Committee's
Biggest Blunders https://sputniknews.com/society/20161005/1046012061/nobel-prize-mistakes.html
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RT SHOWS
RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on October 5, 2016 by Charles
Hugh Smith
Granted, the fantasy of philanthrocapitalism
is appealing: take a bunch of
fabulously successful entrepreneurial billionaires, grant their foundations
tax-free status, and then unleash them on the world as philanthropists who will
solve problems by applying the incentives of capitalism.
While this sounds great in a TED
talk, the ugly reality is that it was philanthrocapitalism’s criminal predatory
twin, Philanthro-Crony-Capitalism, that was unleashed. To
illustrate how Philanthro-Crony-Capitalism works, let’s visit the charmingly
corrupt and venal nation of Lower Slobovia.
Since we know Lower Slobovia is
corrupt, we know how this goes. Dictators, corporations, cartels, etc. who need
favors from Lower Slobovia make huge “donations” to the Paytoplay Foundation,
and like magic, their favors are granted by the government of Lower Slobovia.
Sadly, there is no corrupt Lower
Slobovia or corrupt Paytoplay Foundation. There is however a corrupt USA and
corrupt Clinton Foundation,
which you can read about here: Putting
the Clinton Foundation in Context: Corruption Plain on the Face of It (Amy
Sterling Casil)
“I am not only qualified to
assess the Clinton Foundation, I am also in a position that enables me to do so
without fear of harming people in need. Any nonprofit professional in
the U.S. can look at the Foundation’s own statements, tax filings and financial
reports and see there is something wrong. No one who works for a nonprofit right now should do so because of the
Clinton penchant for revengeand clear signs there are problems in tax
and law enforcement that could lead to harm of their organization or clients. Ethically, they ought not comment because they will put their
organizations or those they are charged to serve at-risk.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Las 10 claves que explican el Nuevo Sistema
Mundo Ignacio Ramonet
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PRESS TV
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