lunes, 9 de mayo de 2016

MAY 9 16 SIT EC y POL



MAY 9 16 SIT EC y POL
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016

"The question is: will enough insouciant Americans align with the One Percent, the neocons, the men-hating feminists, homosexuals, the transgendered, and other “preferred minorities” to put the US presidency in the hands of an aggressive, corrupt person with a conscience deficit? That is the goal toward which the presstitutes are driving the brainwashed. If we end up with Killary, neither the US nor the world will survive the mistake. She will be the last American president..."
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The rot in Washington now permeates the country. It is a rot that threatens the entire world.

Es la podredumbre imperial la que amenaza el mundo entero, dice Paul Craig Roberts.
Hillary es lo peor de esa podredumbre.. ella conducirá el tren al abismo, si llega al poder
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS

Options Traders Confidence Collapses Most Since August Crash. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016 :  The realized (actual) volatility of the US equity market has plunged in recent weeks to its lowest since April 2015 as an odd complacency washed across risk assets emboldened by "whatever it takes" synonyms spewing from every and any central banker in the world. However, options traders appear to be losing faith in the market turmoil cease-fire as implied volatility (the market's best guess at future uncertainty) trades at its largest premium to historical volatility in over a year.



The last time this happened, as the chart suggests, the 'market' is perceiving the fragility in the calm is going to end very soon - just as it did in the summer of 2015, before the August crash.
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CHINA TRADE AND THE INEVITABILITY OF SYSTEMIC RESET. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  The reset is the answer, not the problem. Delaying the answer only elongates the pain of the problem. Under the direction of orthodox economics (the fusion of Keynes and monetarism) the world’s “stimulus” apparatus is making a bad situation worse by (at best) dragging it out far longer than maybe it would have under more traditional business cycle conditions. Belief in the power of “stimulus” to make it happen prevents awareness of what is, again, really a paradigm shift that will not be altered. What we are analyzing, then, is not what awaits but how long it takes to get there and the huge, growing costs to delay what looks only inevitable.
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Chinese trade figures for April 2016 are once again spotlighting the disparity, perhaps more intensely than ever. 
See charts on China Exports at:
and
See chart on China import at:
and


The reset is the answer, not the problem. Delaying the answer only elongates the pain of the problem.
The systemic problem is what the eurodollar’s rise represented – an open world of financialism where credit was unrestrained not just in terms of debt proportions but within the very idea of money itself.
See chart at:

The end of the eurodollar system should be cause for global celebration but it is not since there is nothing ready by which to replace it. Instead, it comes on anyway and leaves only greater strain and uncertainty about what it will mean and the world might look like at that point.
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The current financial market volatility increasingly reflects loss of faith in policy makers. Celebrity central bankers are learning that they must constantly produce new miracles for their followers. For the moment, the volatility is confined to financial markets and the effect on the real economy is limited. The ever present risk is of a doom loop where financial market problems lead to banking system weakness which, in turn, feeds a credit crunch and a contraction in economic activity. That familiar movie does not have a happy ending.
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"We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%. And so the significant weighting to the short side reflects that."
March 31, Carl Icahn - who subsequently divested his entire long AAPL exposure - has been truly putting money, on the short side, where his mouth was in the past quarter. So much so that what on December 31, 2015 was a modest 25% net short, has since exploded into a gargantuan, and unprecedented for Icahn, 149% net short position.


[ THE FALL OF ONE BIG CO DOESN’T SAY MUCH ABOUT THE SITUATION OF THE NATION ECON.]
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PUSH BACK... AGAINST THE 99%

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Trump On Debt Renegotiation: "You Never Have To Default Because You Print The Money". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  First of all you never have to default because you print the money I hate to tell you, so there is never a default. It was reported in the NYT that I want to default on debt - you know I am the king of debt, I love debt, but debt is tricky and its dangerous. But let me just tell you: if interest rates go up and bonds go down, you can buy debt - that's what I'm talking about."
Critique
Aside from the comment that "one never has to default if one is printing the money", which has not exactly led to favorable outcomes for countries which have done just that and the only difference in the case of the US is possession of the reserve currency for now, what Trump is really talking about is inflating away the debt, something the Fed and all other central banks have been desperately trying to do for the past 7 years, so far without much success. 

In effect, Trump's point is really just a continuation of Fed policies: boosting inflation, and leading to a spike in long end yields; all Trump does is explain mechanistically how the US can take advantage of this "debt inflation", which as he correctly points out, can simply be repurchased at a price well below par if rates are surging in effect reducing the nominal debt burden.

Which incidentally brings us back to Trump's point about wanting lower interest rates: if the "king of debt" is so eager to buyback debt at a discount, what he should be urging is not lower but far higher interest rates. Now that is a proposal the Fed, Goldman and all global banks would love to get behind, even if it means leaving the economy in a state of even bigger collapse...
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The Problem Of Excessive Optimism. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016
"If we have borrowed more from our future than any time in history and markets value the future, we should be selling at a discount, not a premium to historic valuations... Overconfidence and over valuation always extract a terrible payback."    SEE CHART
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Frontrunning: May 9 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016 -
  • China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters)
  • European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters)
  • Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (BBG)
  • Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (BBG)
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US Futures, Europe Stocks Jump On Oil, USDJPY Surge; Ignore Poor China Data, Iron Ore Plunge. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  The overnight session has been one of alternative weakness and strength: it started in China where stocks tumbled 2.8% to a two month low following some unexpected warnings in the official People's Daily newspaper and poor trade data. Concerns about China, however, were promptly forgotten and certainly not enough to keep global assets lower, with European stocks gapping higher at the open and rallying from a one-month low, driven by a "surprising" surge in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 200 pips higher since its post-payrolls low. Another driver is the jump in oil, which rallied just shy of $46 a barrel, buoyed by Canadian wildfires that are curbing production and speculation that the Saudi Arabian oil minister succession will be bullish for oil prices.
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QUICK ECONOMIC NEWS from zero hedge

Will "Inevitable USD Strength" Lead To Another Market Selloff. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  Sure enough, overnight the WSJ writes that the "powerful rallies that have lifted stocks, crude oil and emerging markets for the past three months have one important thing in common - the falling dollar - and investors are growing anxious that it could prove to be the weak link." But is a strong dollar about to make another appearance and unleash the next leg lower in risk assets?
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China's Crashing - Stocks, Commodities Plunge After "Top Authority" Implies "Abandoning Loose Policy". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  "After comprehensive judgment, our economic recovery cannot be U-shaped, cannot be V-shaped, but will be L-shaped," warns an 'authoritative' person according to a shocking report published by Government mouthpiece People's Daily. The report, explaining why investors should not expect growth to pick up soon or expect more stimulus to come soon further sets expectations for China to "face the issue of rising non-performing loans" and not continue to create zombie companies. The result -  a bloodbath in stocks and commodities...
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POLITICS

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016
 
"The question is: will enough insouciant Americans align with the One Percent, the neocons, the men-hating feminists, homosexuals, the transgendered, and other “preferred minorities” to put the US presidency in the hands of an aggressive, corrupt person with a conscience deficit? That is the goal toward which the presstitutes are driving the brainwashed. If we end up with Killary, neither the US nor the world will survive the mistake. She will be the last American president..."
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The rot in Washington now permeates the country. It is a rot that threatens the entire world.
Es la podredumbre imperial la que amenaza el mundo entero, indica Paul Craig Roberts.
Hillary is parte de esa podredumbre.. la que conducirá el tren al abismo, si llega al poder
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State Department "Unable To Find" Hillary Emails To IT Aide, Apologizes For Incompetence  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/09/2016  :  "The department has searched for Mr. Pagliano's e-mail PST file, and has not located one that covers the time period of Secretary Clinton's tenure... The department does acknowledge, we must work to improve our systems for record management and retention as part of the ongoing effort, the department is not automatically archiving Secretary Kerry's e-mails as well as the e-mails of numerous senior staff."

[ Again with the short-story tell of “incompetence”?. Why don’t admit that our system is rotten, totally corrupted, and need to be replaced top-down & bottom-up. ]
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ME & WORLD ISSUES

The evil the world faces today is akin to that of the Nazi threat during WWII, warned Vladimir OPutin today at the V-Day celebrations, and called upon everyone to remember the lessons of history, unify, and defeat the terrorists. "The lessons of history show that peace on our planet doesn't establish itself, that you need to be on high alert. We must defeat this evil, and Russia is open to join forces with all countries and is ready to work on the creation of a modern, non-aligned system of international security."
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


In the contemporary global order, the institutions of the masters hold enormous power
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The New Normal: Cold War 2.0. By Pepe Escobar..
We are all living in Hybrid War time. From R2P (“responsibility to protect”) to color revolutions, from currency attacks to stock market manipulations
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The Obama administration seeks to demonize Iran while also demanding their help
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Middle Eastern leaders are making pilgrimages to Moscow to see Vladimir Putin these days, not rushing to Washington
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How the rich and powerful exploit the system.
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“Our Humanity I restored by Love” . Dan, was on the FBI’s most-wanted list—the first Catholic priest in the country to hold that distinction
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COUNTER PUNCH 


Citizens group gave sworn testimony to irregularities in Chicago’s audit of electronically cast ballots between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, .. not body bother to answer a phone call to Chicago’s Board of Elections to ask about those allegations.
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When we ask “Who rules the world?” we commonly adopt the standard convention that the actors in world affairs are states, primarily the great powers, and we consider their decisions and the relations among them. That is not wrong. But we would do well to keep in mind that this level of abstraction can also be highly misleading.

In the contemporary global order, the institutions of the masters hold enormous power, not only in the international arena but also within their home states, on which they rely to protect their power and to provide economic support by a wide variety of means.
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Neo-fascists, racists, and misogynistic people are finding new voice with Donald Trump’s presidential bid. Neo-conservatives and fundamentalists found hope with Ted Cruz. Moderates, liberals and women see Hillary Clinton as a chance for Supreme Court balance and gender equality, and left-leaning liberals are cheering for democratic socialist Sanders to save our economy by breaking up big banks and restoring trust in government.
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Ralph Nader.  The Need for Progressive Voices  May 24th
On May 23rd, 24th, 25th and 26th 2016 at Constitution Hall in Washington, D.C. a large gathering of civil society will take place to challenge the entrenched power of the corporate/political complex. The event is called Breaking Through Power.  . The major mobilizing action on May 24th will be to create a new advocacy organization called “Voices.” The purpose of Voices is simple―to push for enlarging and enhancing space for serious content in all forms of media.
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WASHINGTON BLOG


Multiculturalism is often an excuse for identity politics: the (politically useful) notion that every member of an ethnic or religious group “should” support policies A,B & C and vote for candidates X, Y and Z based solely on their membership in an identity that is a useful tool for political exploitation.

Multiculturalism is not about identity politics–it’s about being recognized as an individual with your own character, experience, values and views. Yes, we draw upon our genetic heritage, our experience of race, gender and faith, and a thousand other confluences of life in America and the world beyond.

But no individual can be reduced down to race, gender and faith–which is the entire purpose of identity politics.Identity politics is a specific form of propaganda that exploits our sense of membership in various groups into support for specific policies and politicos.
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By Steve Keen . Debt Deflation blog.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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Libros Libres. -[.pdf 322 Kb]  La estrategia de Syriza a debate. Antonio Antón
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Siria  Alepo, la pieza siria. Higinio Polo
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España. -El drama español. Immanuel Wallerstein
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EE.UU.. -Trump: El temor outsider. Silvina M. Romano
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PRESS TV


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