May 12 16 SIT EC y POL
….
‘CLINTON
LIKELY TO END PRESIDENTIAL RACE’ . due
to email scandal: Boehner
Former US Speaker John Boehner says it is very likely
that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will withdraw from the
presidential race due to her email scandal and is replaced by Vice President
Joe Biden.
He said “"would not be surprised at all" if
Clinton "has to withdraw" and Biden "parachutes in." .. The
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is likely to interview Clinton in the
next few days about the issue. The FBI has already interviewed some of
Clinton’s aides, including Huma Abedin, the vice chairwoman of Clinton's
presidential campaign.
Last week, a US federal judge in Washington said he may
order Clinton to testify under oath about whether she used a private email
server. And the US District Court Judge
Emmet Sullivan signed an order granting a request from the conservative
watchdog group Judicial Watch to question six current and former US State
Department staffers about the creation and purpose of the private email server.
Based on what might be discovered from those interviews,
which are to be conducted over the next eight weeks, Sullivan may order
an out-of-court testimony from Clinton " if may be necessary."
According to American political analyst Scott Bennett, the
belief that Clinton will crash and burn makes it certain that Biden will seek
the nomination.
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ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
The
Biggest Source Of Global Growth In 2016 Is About To Hit A Brick Wall. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016. After issuing a record $1 trillion in combined
bank and shadow loans in the first quarter which just like during the
financial crisis provided a short-term catalyst for global growth (and sent
China's debt/GDP to new all time highs) China's dramatic debt issuance binge is
about to hit a brick wall. The reason: combined new loans in April by the
Big Four state-owned banks were more than halved from March's level.
…
Putting it all together, China finds itself between a rock
and a hard place - should it unleash another massive credit impulse, it will
find itself scrambling to contain the NPL fallout; should it taper the credit
growth, it will see its economy suddenly swoon lower, resulting in even more
currency devaluation and even more capital outflows (and even higher Vancouver
real estate prices).
* * *
SEE THIS IMAGE AT: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/09/credit%20impulse.jpg
As for the conclusion, we will give the stage to Axiom's
Gordon Johnson who lays it out as follows:
CHINA MACRO: IS THE TIME TO RE-SHORT COMMODITY STOCKS
“UPON US”?: Futures Trading Plunge + Fall in Chinese FX Reserves + Spike in
Hong Kong Imports = Trouble
Point 1 – Avg. Daily Futures Trading Values Are
Plummeting. In our note published 4/29, titled “MACRO: IS EVERYONE WRONG ON
THE “CAUSATION” OF THE COMMODITY BUBBLE?”, we presaged that excessive
speculation in the commodities futures markets by Chinese banks’ special
interest vehicles (“SIVs”), via wealth management products (“WMPs”), was
imminently coming to an abrupt end. The evidence? Simply put, as shown here,
here,
and here,
after seeing futures trading volumes across virtually every commodity in China
increase exponentially over a very short period of time, the Chinese government
stepped in two weeks ago and began raising margin requirements, shortening
trading hours, and increasing transaction costs for commodity futures trading.
Consequently, given the average holding period for futures contracts including
rebar and iron ore was less than 3 hours in April, we argue that the Chinese
banks responsible for perpetuating this bubble – given the sheer size, we feel
those purporting that “retail” investors are driving this are misinformed – are
transacting in the overnight market. As such, as we warned prior, with Chinese
government policy now staunchly against the ability to profit from speculative
trading in the commodities futures market (link), we believe the collapse that
has defined a number of commodity metals will intensify over the coming
days/weeks .
Point 2 – China’s FX Reserves Fell, Again, in April.
China’s foreign exchange (“FX”) reserves rose just 22bps m/m in April, after
rising 32bps m/m in Mar. Yet, when adjusting for currency, using Chinese
Foreign Exchange Trade System Units (“CFETS”), China’s FX reserves in April
fell for the 6th consecutive month.
Point 3 – Chinese Imports from Hong Kong “Take Flight”.
Imports from Hong Kong – a channel used by foreign subsidiaries in China to get
capital out of the country by over-invoicing [or, for all intents and purposes,
the creation of fake trade invoices] their China-based holding companies –
swelled a record 203.5% in April. Stated differently, when taken in conjunction
with the 6th consecutive fall in China’s currency adjusted FX reserves in
April, we believe a “mountainous” amount of capital continues to be pulled out
of China.
Conclusion. We believe the benefit of a record $1
trillion in new credit creation in China’s economy in C1Q16 has run its course.
Thus, with policy in China now re-focused on supply-side reform, vs. investment
expansion, we see the commodity stocks as shorts again.
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Algos
Now Buy Oil On Both Production "Freeze" And "Boost"
Headlines. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/2016 : [ YESTERDAY.]
The oil headline scanning algos have completely lost it.
While in the past it used to be just oil "production freeze"
headlines that sent crude surging, now any old headline will do. Case in
point, the price action since noon today.
Just around 12:37pm Eastern, Bloomberg blasted the following
machine-readable headlines:
- IRAQ DEP. MIN. SEES CRUDE PRICE RISING ON INCREASE IN DEMAND
- IRAQ SEES RENEWED TALKS ABOUT OUTPUT FREEZE AT OPEC MEETING
Which as we promptly noted, pushed oil instantly from $46
some 20 cents higher.
In a world of "logic", one would imagine that the
second headline would undo the impact of the first one. Nope. What
happened instead is that as the first headline sent oil - expectedly - higher, so did the second one!
In other words, we just had a "market test"
according to which algos buy oil on both "production freeze" and
"production boost" headlines, confirming that algos not only don't
even scan the headlines, they just look for only one key words, in this case
"Iraq", which then proceeds to unleash yet another momentum-igniting
buying spree….. Trade accordingly.
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Is
Glencore Manipulating The Price Of Oil: Swiss Trader Holds Over 30% Of June
Brent Supply Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016. [TODAY NEWS.]
Glencore, has built up a massive inventory stake in the
Brent market where it now holds an unprecedented 30% position in Brent, which
it is holding for offshore storage in its tankers in hopes of pushing the price
of Brent, and thus the entire energy complex higher, by limiting supply
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Dear
Homeowner, What Exactly Do You "Own"?. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/2016
If we understand property taxes as a lease from the
local government for the right to gamble on another housing bubble arising,
we see "ownership" in a different light. As the saying goes,
buyer beware, especially if there's no limit on how high desperate local
governments can jack up their lease fees, i.e. property taxes.
We're constantly told ours is an ownership society
in which owning a home is the foundation of household wealth. The concept
of ownership may appear straightforward, but consider these questions:
1. If the house is mortgaged, what does the homeowner
"own" when the bank has the senior claim to the property?
2. If the homeowner owes local government $13,000 a year in
property taxes, what does the homeowner "own" once they pay $260,000
in property taxes over 20 years?
The answer to the first question: the homeowner only
"owns" the homeowners' equity, the market value of the
home minus the the mortgage and closing costs.
In a housing bubble, homeowners' equity can soar as
the skyrocketing value accrues to the homeowner, as the mortgage is fixed (in
conventional mortgages).
But when bubbles pop and housing prices return to
reality-based valuations, the declines also accrue to the homeowner's equity.
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Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/2016 - 07:23
- Trump’s Early Backers on Capitol Hill See Their Profile Raised (WSJ)
- Oil prices rise toward six-month high, tightening supply (Reuters)
- EIA says outlook for oil brightens as output disruptions erode surplus (Reuters)
- Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge (BBG)
- Beaten-Up Hedge Fund Billionaires Reminisce About 'Golden Age' (BBG)
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QUICK ECONOMIC NEWS from zero hedge
Fed
Nemesis & Mysterious Treasury Bond Buyer Exposed. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/16
Three decades of
factual dismissal of this bullshit propaganda are of course proving that line
of reasoning simply false and while
Rosengren, Bullard, et al. bloviate that 'investors' should be selling bonds,
it is shockingly ironic that their bond-buying nemesis is Mrs. Watanabe in the
land of failed Keynesian policy piling into Treasuries at a record pace
since The BoJ went NIRP.
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World's
Most Bearish Hedge Fund Manager: "I Think Something Has Changed". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/2016 : "The message that I am getting from
the market, the “something” that has changed is that the US dollar is no longer
a strong currency. Typically the US dollar falls when its economic cycle
begins to roll over. Many of the indicators that I look at show the US is
either in or heading for recession."
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POLITICS
Washington's
Military Addiction (And The Ruins Still To Come). Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 05/12/2016 : But don’t bother to blame the politicians and
national security nabobs in Washington for this. They’re addicts.
They can’t help themselves. What they need is rehab. Instead,
they continue to run our world. Be suitably scared for the ruins still to
come.
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Texas
Secession Looms As "Independence Resolution" Nears Vote. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016 : f
the nationalists get their way, this November might be the last time Texans
vote for a US president. On Wednesday, the Platform Committee of the Texas
Republican Party voted to put a Texas independence resolution up for a vote at
this week's GOP convention, according to a press release from the pro-secession
Texas Nationalist Movement. The resolution calls for allowing voters to
decide whether the Lone Star State should become an independent nation.
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
Russia
Hints At Nuclear War After US Deploys Ballistic Missile Shield. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016. : As American and allied officials celebrated
the opening of a long-awaited missile defense system in Europe with a ribbon
cutting and a band the reaction in Moscow on Thursday was darker: a public
discussion of how nuclear war might play out in Europe and the prospect that Romania,
the host nation for the United States-built system, might be reduced to
“smoking ruins."
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Neocons and
Neolibs: How Dead Ideas Kill. By Robert Parry
Hillary Clinton wants the American voters to be very afraid
of Donald Trump, but there is reason to fear as well what a
neoconservative/neoliberal Clinton presidency would mean for the world.
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A Perfect
Storm. By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano
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Zionist
Israel Hides Its Crimes Behind Its Smears of Truth-Tellers. By Paul Craig Roberts
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The Russian Foreign Ministry spoke out
Wednesday against the efforts to oust Rousseff, pinning the move on
"foreign interference."
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The Real
Target of the Panama Papers. By Pepe Escobar
What this is all about is one more chapter in an
intra-system hardcore financial war.
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European
Care for the Elderly 2016. By Michael Hudson
“The life-expectancy gap between rich and poor in the United
States is actually accelerating
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Washington’s
Military Addiction. And The Ruins Still to Come. By Tom Engelhardt
No matter who is elected president, you already know more or
less what American “policy” is going to be.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Pepe Escobar. Hillary
Clinton, the Conveniently Negligent Queen
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Doug Johnson Hatlem. Purged,
Hacked, Switched: On Election Fraud Allegations in Hillary Clinton vs Bernie
Sanders
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TOP STORIES FROM COUNTERPUNCH.org
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The
Push to Make Sanders the Green Party’s Candidate. Dave Lindorff
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Bernie
Sanders: the Candidate Who Came in From the Cold Jeffrey St. Clair
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WASHINGTON BLOG
The following
comes directly from the
Department of Labor…
In the week ending May 7, the
advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, an increase
of 20,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 274,000. This is the
highest level for initial claims since February 28, 2015 when it was 310,000.
The 4-week moving average was 268,250, an increase of 10,250 from the previous
week’s unrevised average of 258,000.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Brasil: ¿y ahora qué? Ángel
Guerra
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