sábado, 3 de enero de 2015

JAN 2 SIT ECON Y POLITICA



JAN 2 SIT ECON Y POLITICA

Articles selected by Hugo Adan

GLOBAL RESEARCH

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INFORMATIONCLEARINGHOUSE.INFO

Is War in the Cards for 2015?  By Patrick J. Buchanan. Before going home, Congress voted to levy new sanctions on Russia and authorized U.S. lethal weapons to be sent to Kiev to enable Ukraine to retake Luhansk and Donetsk and perhaps Crimea.
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2015 Will Be All About Iran, China and Russia. By Pepe Escobar. The Masters of the Universe/Washington combo won’t give up their strategy to make Russia a pariah state cut off from trade, the transfer of funds, banking and Western credit markets and thus prone to regime change.
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The Incredible US "Peace Plan" For Syria. By Thierry Meyssan. The "peace" plan of the "liberal hawks" consists therefore in achieving the original goals by dividing Syria in two: an area governed by Damascus and another by "moderate rebels" (read: the Pentagon).
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What Would Happen if the Int’l Criminal Court Indicted Israel’s Netanyahu?. By Juan Cole.
Getting a conviction on Article VII should be child’s play for the prosecutor.
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REBELLION
Poder popular, Estado y luchas sociales . Bryan Seguel. Conversación con Franck Gaudichaud (Parte 2)
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La revolución infatigable. Oliverio Comte. Cuba a 56 años de la victoria
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Un año decisivo Peru.  Gustavo Espinoza
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Las derrotas y la resistencia.  Guillermo Almeyra
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ZERO HEDGE

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 - 17:07 


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Oliver Stone's New Movie: "Ukraine: The CIA Coup" Coming To A Theater Near You, "the West has maintained the dominant narrative of 'Russia in Crimea' whereas the true narrative is 'USA in Ukraine.' The truth is not being aired in the West. It’s a surreal perversion of history that’s going on once again, as in the Bush pre-Iraq ‘WMD’ [Weapons of Mass Destruction] campaign... with CIA fingerprints on it."
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Mario Draghi's Statement: A Fistful Of Keynesian Fallacies  by Patrick Barron via Mises Canada, sub- by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015, Mario Draghi’s latest statement is full of Keynesian fallacies, to wit: QE in Europe contained not one, not two, but four fantastical Keynesian fallacies. 1. That price stability is a worthy goal. No, monetary stability is essential, so that prices may reflect the true preferences and productive limitations of the market in order to allocate scarce resources. 2. That low inflation or even deflation is harmful. No, in a economy with increasing productivity prices will fall, benefiting all of society. Preventing prices from falling or, as ECB President Draghi desires, encouraging price inflation, causes the Cantillon Effect, whereby early receivers of the new money benefit at the expense of later receivers.  3. That GDP is a good measure of an economy’s success. if this were the case, then Zimbabwe would be a huge success story. GDP simply adds up the monetary prices of goods sold, so higher prices on the same or even slightly lower volume of sales necessarily will be interpreted by Keynesian economists as success. 4. That monetary expansion can spur an economy to greater prosperity. If this were the case, then counterfeiters would be doing all of us a big favor. Monetary expansion distorts the structure of production, sending more resources to the expansion of enterprises further removed from final consumption. Go to: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/mario-draghis-statement-fistful-keynesian-fallacies 
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2015 Will Be All About Iran, China And Russia. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Fasten your seatbelts; 2015 will be a whirlwind pitting China, Russia and Iran against what I have described as the Empire of Chaos.
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China's "Illusion Of Prosperity" Exposed: Forget Ghost Cities, Meet Ghost Factories. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 - 21:40.  Having exposed the 20+1 charts of China's demise previously, we move to Exhibit (a) in the "illusion of prosperity" that keeps the dream (looking) alive to the outside (mostly Western get-rich-quick fast-money) world - China's Zombie Factories...
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Why The Stock Market Casino Is Dangerous: The Case Of Looney Tunes In the Sand Dunes.  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Meet Emerge Energy Services: the poster boy for the “irrational exuberance” that has become institutionalized throughout the length and breadth of the Wall Street casino. Today’s Wall Street Journal story coming just five months after last summers potboiler is therefore not simply an update on a speculation gone horribly wrong. It’s actually a template for the deluge to come.
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Merkel Ally Fuchs: Draghi, Stop Talking QE, "We Shouldn't Pump Money" Into Struggling EU Nations, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015, Germany has come out swinging to remind the world that it won't stand idly by as the nation's taxpayers are thrown under the bailout-the-EU-or-else bus. Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, told Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday: "We shouldn't pump extra money into these states, but rather make sure they continue along the reform path." As Reuters reports, Fuchs further added, "I'd be grateful if (ECB President Mario) Mr Draghi would make statements along these lines."
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The Elephant Dragon In The Room: China's Hard Landing, In 21 Charts  Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Today we update where China stands on its path to a very hard landing. As the charts below show, what has been so far a controlled descent is rapidly sliding out of control.
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Low Prices Lead To Layoffs In The Oil Patch, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Less drilling will not only lead to a loss of jobs for oil workers, but the services that pop up around drilling sites – restaurants, bars, construction, and more – are feeling the slowdown as well. States like Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Louisiana have seen their economies boom over the last few years as oil production surged. But the sector is now deflating, leaving gashes in employment rolls and state budgets. With such extensive dependence on oil for prosperity in these states, the pain will mount if oil prices stay low.
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These 19 States Just Hiked The Minimum Wage: Here Come The "Unintended Consequences"  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 the reality at the micro level, is that increasingly more Americans are seeing their work status transformed from full-time to part-time status, earning less in the process, having no healthcare and retirement benefits and virtually no job security. As a result, starting this year, some 19 states just increased their minimum wage threshold, with 3 more states due to follow later in 2015. This takes place at the state level because for numerous reasons, there simply wan't enough of a consensus to pass this at the Federal level.
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Mario Draghi Op-Ed: "Lay Down Your Rights... In A New Institutional Order"  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015  by Mario Draghi, originally posted at Project Syndicate, 1. There is a common misconception that the euro area is a monetary union without a political union. But this reflects a deep misunderstanding of what monetary union means. 2.  If European monetary union has proved more resilient than many thought, it is only because those who doubted it misjudged this political dimension. They underestimated the ties among its members. 3. Yet it is also clear that our monetary union is still incomplete. This was the diagnosis offered two years ago by the so-called “Four Presidents” But what does it mean to “complete” a monetary union? it means having conditions in place that make countries more stable and prosperous than they would be if they were not members. They have to be better off inside than they would be outside.. 4. This implies two main things. First, we have to create the conditions for all countries to thrive independently. The second implication of the absence of fiscal transfers is that countries need to invest more in other mechanisms to share the cost of shocks. 5. A key part of the solution is to improve private risk-sharing by deepening financial integration. Indeed, the less public risk-sharing we want, the more private risk-sharing we need. 6. So, to avoid prolonged local slumps, it is critical that national fiscal policies can perform their stabilization role. 7. This is a further reason why we need economic union: markets would be less likely to react negatively to temporarily higher deficits if they were more confident in future growth prospects. By committing governments to structural reforms, economic union provides the credibility that countries can indeed grow out of debt. 8- And for this reason, to complete monetary union we will ultimately have to deepen our political union further: to lay down its rights and obligations in a renewed institutional order. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/mario-draghi-op-ed-lay-down-your-rights-new-institutional-order
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2015: The Year Of Living Uncertainly  by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 The rash of “unexpected” declines in PMI’s this morning in the US, of all places, seems to have abraded at least somewhat the pervasive belief in the American “decoupling.” But... The FOMC sees 5% GDP and a serious workdown in the unemployment rate; credit markets are worried about how continued mistreatment of economic fundamentals may mean another disastrous trip like the one from the housing bust to the Great Recession. Worse than that, the treasury curve, in particular, may be going a step further by envisioning that we may already have replicated that period and are now very deep within it.
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ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending Collapse To 6-Month Lows Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. US construction spending in December dropped 0.3% (against expectations of a 0.4% rise) - the biggest monthly drop since June. ISM Manufacturing also tumbled from 58.7 to 55.5 - its lowest since June (missing expectations by the most since January). Unable to find a silver lining, ISM's Holcomb proclaimed "comments are a 'bit mixed'".
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Babson Capital 1987 Redux: "What Goes Up Must Come Down"  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. "most investors take a relatively short-term view and assume that what has happened most recently will continue. They fail to recognize that economic and market forces are always working to press companies (and whole industries) back toward their respective grooves... companies rarely perform way above the industry average or way below it indefinitely. There is a constant tendency to regress toward the mean..."
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Un-Decoupling? US Manufacturing PMI Tumbles To 11-Month Lows. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015   Just as China and then Europe saw weakness in their manufacturing PMIs, so the US data just hit, printing 53.9 (missing expectations modestly) and falling for 4 straight months to the lowest since January 2014's Polar Vortex. Production volumes are also the weakest since Jan 2014 and the employment sub-index collapsed. Markit warns, "this suggests a slowdown could become more entrenched."
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5Y German Bond Yield Goes Negative For First Time Ever  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 How do you say Japanization in German? 5Y German bonds just traded at -0.1bp yield (below Japan's 3bp 5Y yield)...
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European Bond Yields Accelerate To Fresh Record Low  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. As Central Bank front-runners, front-run each other in a race to the bottom, the rapidly Japan-ized EU bond market has seen risk (spread 10-20bps lower) tumbles and yields crash to new record lows this morning. EU bond yields have fallen for 3 years and the economy has cratered... so what is the purpose of ECB QE?
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Low Prices Lead To Layoffs In The Oil Patch,  by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, sub  by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. 1- The decline continues to bedevil the markets. Sensing a rally was in order, speculators had dumped money into energy stocks throughout the month of December, hoping to buy up positions at basement prices. 2- This portends a longer period of low oil prices, and with that, a cutback in drilling and job losses in the U.S. oil patch. 3- That is going to have an impact on employment. Less drilling will not only lead to a loss of jobs for oil workers, but the services that pop up around drilling sites – restaurants, bars, construction, and more – are feeling the slowdown as well. 4- But it won’t just be the profligate that feel the brunt of a depressed oil market. Civeo, a Houston-based company that builds lodging for oil workers, announced on December 29 that it would cut its workforce by 45 percent because of lower demand for “man camp” trailers. 5- There are some early signs that a slowdown in drilling could spread to the manufacturing sector in Texas. 6- a chemical manufacturer, said “lower oil prices will adversely impact margins. Energy volatility will cause our customers to keep inventories tight.”. 7- With such extensive dependence on oil for prosperity in these states, the pain will mount if oil prices stay low.  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-02/low-prices-lead-layoffs-oil-patch
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Turkmenistan Devalues Currency By 18%, Armstrong Warns Of "Economic Collapse On A Global Scale" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Martin Armstrong warns, this is symptomatic of a deflationary contagion that "will contribute to now force the dollar higher... We are in a major economic collapse on a global scale. Most people do not understand that this is the real threat we face."
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2015 Starts As 2014 Ended: Crude Crumbles To Fresh Lows, WTI Tests $51 Handle  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. following weak European data (and a recognition of massively offside speculative positioning), WTI has collapsed over $3 from the highs and is testing towards a $51 handle.
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015 - 07:52
  • The year of dollar danger for the world (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)
  • Draghi Says ECB Prepares Action as Deflation Risk Non-Negligible (BBG)
  • Obama Pivots to Lawmakers: New Plan to Advance Policy Goals by Working With Congress Draws Skeptics (WSJ)
  • Affordable Care Act Creates a Trickier Tax Season (WSJ)
  • Oil pares early gains, trades near $57 as supply glut prevails (Reuters)
  • Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall (Reuters)
  • Pimco Fund Trails Peers in 2014 After Missing Rally (BBG)
  • Piketty rejects Légion d’Honneur award (FT)
  • UK manufacturing activity hits three-month low (BBC)
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Draghi Launches New Year With More QE Jawboning, Sending Euro To New 4 Year Low, Yields Lower, US Futures Higher  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015  Reuters reports, why the Euro sank to a nearly 5 year low against the USD, was "clear indications that the European Central Bank will soon embark on outright money-printing." Actually, it was on just more hollow rhetoric by Draghi, who told German Handelsblatt that "the risk that we don’t fulfill our mandate of price stability is higher than it was six months ago." He also added that "it’s difficult to say” how much the institution will have to spend on government-bond purchases.
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Bad News Is Bad News, Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble After Data Triple Whammy  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. Well this is not supposed to happen. 2015 appears to have started with the "bad news is bad news" meme engaged as the standard USDJPY-driven opening ramp has collapsed on the back of a triple whammy of terrible data (US PMI, Construction Spending, and ISM). The Santa Rally (theoretically due to finish at the close on Monday) is in danger of not being a no-brainer... Treasury yields are plunging (10Y -6.5bps at 2.10%) Stocks only hope now is a 120.00 bounce in USDJPY.
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Decoupling Just Died: December New Orders Plunge Below Polar Vortex Level, Optimism Plummets To 2012 Levels. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. As the ISM data revealed moments ago, we were right to focus on the NSA data, because while the Seasonally Adjusted (and one still wonders why a survey needs seasonal adjustments - after all human psychology automatically adjusts for the seasons) New Orders number tumbled by 8.7, the biggest crash since the 13.1 crash now blamed on the Polar Vortex (can't blame the weather this time), it was the unadjusted New Orders number that was the stunner: at 53.5 this was the lowest number since before even the polar vortex: in fact it was the lowest since July 2013!
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Un-Decoupling? US Manufacturing PMI Tumbles To 11-Month Lows. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2015. So much for that whole "decoupling" meme... Just as China and then Europe saw weakness in their manufacturing PMIs, so the US data just hit, printing 53.9 (missing expectations modestly) and falling for 4 straight months to the lowest since January 2014's Polar Vortex. Production volumes are also the weakest since Jan 2014 and the employment sub-index collapsed. Markit warns, "this suggests a slowdown could become more entrenched."
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For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst. Year. Ever.  Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/01/2015. The bottom line: according to Nielsen, is that despite the S&P recording a whopping 53 all time highs, and the Dow rising over 18,000, the channel that was once must watch financial TV for mom and pop, and has since devolved into endless cheerleading of failed policies and rigged markets, namely CNBC, just suffered its worst year in, well, ever.
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THE 4TH MEDIA
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PRESSTV
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Russia and China mock divide and rule The Empire of Chaos is as lousy at chess as it is at history, writes Pepe Escobar.
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Iran rejects report of nuclear deal  rejects a media report that it has reached a uranium shipment deal with the P5+1 group of world powers.
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‘CIA behind The Interview production’. worked “hand in gloves” with Sony Pictures to produce The Interview.
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Syrian army forces make fresh gains  Syrian army continues its operations against militants in the northwestern province of Idlib.
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The significance of the fight for $15 in fast food workers in New York, has been gaining momentum ever since.
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‘US society imbued with violence’, Rodney Shakespeare says the US society is imbued with violence and corruption.
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US advancing Israel’s energy empire, US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel.
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Hamas warns of Gaza renovation delay, A top Hamas leader warns the UN of the consequences of delaying the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.
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Police killings of blacks top news of 2014, The police killings of unarmed blacks in the US was the top news story of 2014, according to a new poll.
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‘US after altering Iraq politics’, A Baghdad-based commentator says Washington seeks to influence politics in Iraq.
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Syria opposition starts meeting in Turkey, Syria opposition starts a three-day meeting in the northwestern Turkish city of Istanbul.
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Afghanistan still plagued with insecurity  14 years after the US-led invasion.
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Erdogan spying case opens in Turkey Turkey begins trying 13 former police officers accused of spying on former prime minister.
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Kenya court suspends anti-terror law, over human rights concerns.

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