lunes, 17 de julio de 2017

JUL 16 17 SIT EC y POL



JUL 16 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


"I’d love to be wrong. Nothing would make me happier than having to eat all these words. But without significant changes, and soon, the economy will drift sideways and down... Any outside shock – and several may be in the offing – could push us into recession."

Global Contagion

The parlous state of the economy is not just an American problem, or a European or UK or Japanese or Chinese one. It is global.

I wonder whether Janet Yellen truly appreciates the degree to which Federal Reserve policy affects the entire world. Like it or not, the US dollar is the entire planet’s ultimate medium of exchange. One way or another, almost every financial transaction eventually settles in dollars. China and others would like to change that. Maybe they’ll succeed someday, but it won’t be this year or next.


My brief time away convinced me beyond any doubt that a crisis of historic proportions is once again bearing down on us. We may have little time to prepare. We definitely have no time to waste.
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"The Fed has once again lost control of a big part of monetary policy... [in particular] its ability to influence the risk taking incentives of the markets..."

Performance of Stocks, Bonds, and Emerging Markets 

No wonder then markets are going bonkers.   Take a look at the performance of a select list of indicators since the Fed began raising interest rates.

Related Video The Fed Raises Interest Rates: 3 Things to Know. Open: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-16/market-liquidity-conditions-are-still-loose-goose

The Fed Raises Interest Rates: 3 Things to Know


Real Interest Rates

Finally take a look at real interest rates.   The current level of the 10-year real Treasury yield,  calculated as the nominal yield less the 1-year lagged PCE deflator, is only at the 19th percentile on a monthly basis going back to the early 1960’s.   Our sense is rates are going to have to move much higher (200-300 bps)  and quantitative tightening is going to take some time to really break these markets and burst the global asset bubbles.
Asset bubbles don’t pop very easy,  until they do.

In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”   – Rudiger Dornbusch


The first derivative trade, that is selling when the direction of policy changes,  is not going to cut it this time around.   Global interest rates are just too low and the flood of central bank liquidity is too high.

The bears are much too loud and adamant and the buy the dipper Algos are in control.   Until they aren’t.

Conclusion

Nevertheless,  assets are exteremly expensive,  monetary policy is moving in the wrong direction and the market is very vulnerable to a sharp selloff given a Black Swan event,  which we increasingly think may be some sort of geopolitical shock or a  humongous populist backlash, for example,  as the wealth gap continues to widen.

Billionaire preppers.  Did you ever think you see the day?

…survivalism has expanded to more affluent quarters, taking root in Silicon Valley and New York City, among technology executives, hedge-fund managers, and others in their economic cohort. New Yorker,  Jan 30, 2017

We are thinking October for a sigfinicant correction as the Fed should be on their way to getting its meeting.  

Finally,  the path of least of resistance seems to be  higher for risk assets, but as Ray Dalio says,
   keep dancing but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves. – Ray Dalio
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[[ Keep dreaming: Most financial contracts end the last days of Sept… big speculators at NY and Chicago either accept a TOBIN tax to all financial transaction –to shorten the explosive inequality and avoid Rev- OR use the right to euthanasia or any form of “decent” suicide. So, October could be the month of burials for our nasty oligarchy. Yellen’ financial marcial law either succeed or she die too. In 1930s we have similar Econ crisis, but people resistance was defeated. In 1935 people rebel went up as it is Now … FDR got a deal with the oligarchy, either accept the Glass-Steagal Act or die. We got almost 50 years of Ec prosperity after the Deal.. B-Clinton betray America by killing the Glass St.Act. Now we have total power at the hands of WS speculators, under the command of Fed Bankers. They not only got the Central Econ power, they also finance and semi-control the duopoly party system. So we have to go beyond the Glass Steagal Act and beyond neoliberal economics, to put US train in its track. Yellen won’t do it, but the context may force her to do it, as happens with FDR. All depends on the political power that people can get from the bottom up, using referndums to force resign Dem n Reps and change rules of econ n political context. New party and new Fronts will force proportional representation at nation level. Our path is clear. They have the imperial dilemmas that I briefly described before. They will betray our nation with more weapons-war business and the predatory neoliberal system. We will join the productive capitalists excluded by big speculator & warmongers. The oligarchical classes are condemned to be defeated, they are corrupted, vicious and nauseabunds. They are not real American, not ethical humans at all. No matter how.. working classes will win. ]]
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Coming off the back of another bad week for the USD, we look to a barren period for the data schedule in the US, so markets will have to determine whether or not to extend this weakness based on the evidence so far. 
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"Federer seems set to reclaim his title, King of Queens, at Arthur Ashe Stadium for the sixth time, Should this historic coincidence come to pass, it yet again clear the path for another historic shift in monetary policy, for the FOMC to start balance sheet reduction in September."

As Bloomberg's Marc Cudmore said earlier this week, when he explained why he more focused on this Fed rather than the one run by Janet Yellen, "The Fed" has won seven of the past 14 championships. In every year he’s been victorious, both the MSCI EM Currency Index and the MSCI EM Equity Index have gained. By contrast, in five of the seven years he hasn’t finished triumphant, both those indexes have dropped.

That did not mark the end of "Fed vs Fed" spurious correlation. 

As Bank of America's Chris Flanagan writes in a note on Sunday, "curious as it may be, Federer's trajectories have mirrored those of the FOMC's rate path; steadily rising in the mid-2000s, pausing since the crisis, and gradually normalizing back over the last two years."

BofA's conclusion: "Should this historic coincidence come to pass, it yet again clears the path for another historic shift in monetary policy, for the FOMC to start balance sheet reduction in Sept.17."
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist  duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y corrupto. Urge cambiarlo


"...the longer the bill's out there, the more conservative Republicans are going to discover that it's not repeal... and the more that everybody's going to discover that it keeps the fundamental flaw of ObamaCare..."
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"The Fusion-Steele matter is explosive because it suggests that Russia’s most damaging intervention in the 2016 campaign may have been its creation of the Steele Dossier, remarkably paid for by the Clinton campaign! If so, the Clinton campaign (not Trump) was the prime sponsor of Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election."
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The crooks who wants power.. start their killings inside,  Libyan style

Eberwein was a former Haitian government official who was expected to expose the extent of Clinton Foundation corruption and malpractice next week. He has been found dead in Miami at the age of 50.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo

Nothing said on China by the US media is reliable.. better get www.cgtn.com   or   CGTN - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/user/CCTVNEWSbeijing



Despite slumping macro data, a major slowdown in real estate, and the nation's deleveraging efforts in the last three months, GDP beat, Retail Sales beat, Industrial Production surged, and even fixed asset investment was above expectations. The Yuan hasn't moved.
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"CNN Exclusive: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis" - CNN, June 6, 2017
"UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials" - WaPo
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Predator drone style combat machines are just the tip of the iceberg for what is to come down the line of lethal weaponry and some (like Elon Musk) are worried that when robots are calling the shots, things could get a little out of hand.

RELATED:
Robots that serve dinner, self-driving cars and drone-taxis could be fun and hugely profitable. But don’t hold your breath. They are likely much further off than the hype suggests.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol crisis leads to more business-wars:  profiteers US-NATO under screen


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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We don’t want you to be pro-Israeli or pro-Palestinian; we demand of you to be pro-peace.
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A drone base may soon be coming to your own neighborhood
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view


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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight to break with collapsing Empire:  leftist view on alternatives


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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences


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