JUL 16 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"I’d love to be wrong. Nothing would make me
happier than having to eat all these words. But without significant changes, and soon,
the economy will drift sideways and down... Any outside shock – and several may be in the
offing – could push us into recession."
Global
Contagion
The parlous
state of the economy is not just an American problem, or a European or UK or
Japanese or Chinese one. It is global.
I
wonder whether Janet Yellen truly appreciates the degree to which Federal
Reserve policy affects the entire world. Like it or not, the US dollar
is the entire planet’s ultimate medium of exchange. One way or another, almost
every financial transaction eventually settles in dollars. China and others
would like to change that. Maybe they’ll succeed someday, but it won’t be this year or next.
My brief time
away convinced me beyond any doubt that a crisis of
historic proportions is once again bearing down on us. We may have
little time to prepare. We definitely have no time to
waste.
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"The Fed has once again lost control of a big part of monetary
policy... [in particular] its ability
to influence the risk taking incentives of the markets..."
Performance of Stocks, Bonds,
and Emerging Markets
No wonder then
markets are going bonkers. Take a look at the performance of a
select list of indicators since the Fed began raising interest rates.
Related Video The Fed Raises Interest Rates: 3 Things
to Know. Open: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-16/market-liquidity-conditions-are-still-loose-goose
The Fed Raises Interest Rates: 3 Things to Know
Real Interest Rates
Finally take a look
at real interest rates. The current level of the 10-year real Treasury
yield, calculated as the nominal yield less the 1-year lagged PCE
deflator, is only at the 19th percentile on a monthly basis going back to the
early 1960’s. Our sense is rates are going to have to move much higher (200-300
bps) and quantitative tightening is going to take some time to really
break these markets and burst the global asset bubbles.
Asset bubbles don’t
pop very easy, until they do.
In economics, things take
longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you
thought they could.” – Rudiger
Dornbusch
The first derivative
trade, that is selling when the direction of policy changes, is not going
to cut it this time around. Global interest rates are just too low
and the flood of central bank liquidity is too high.
The bears are much
too loud and adamant and the buy the dipper Algos are in control.
Until they aren’t.
Conclusion
Nevertheless,
assets are exteremly expensive, monetary policy is moving in the wrong
direction and the market is very vulnerable to a sharp
selloff given a Black Swan event, which we increasingly think may be some sort of geopolitical shock or a humongous
populist backlash, for example, as the
wealth gap continues to widen.
Billionaire preppers. Did you ever think you see the
day?
…survivalism has expanded to more affluent quarters, taking root in
Silicon Valley and New York City, among technology executives, hedge-fund
managers, and others in their economic cohort. – New Yorker, Jan 30, 2017
We are thinking
October for a sigfinicant correction as the Fed should be on their way to
getting its meeting.
Finally, the
path of least of resistance seems to be higher for risk assets,
but as Ray Dalio says,
keep dancing but closer to the
exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves. – Ray Dalio
…
....
[[ Keep dreaming: Most financial contracts end the
last days of Sept… big speculators at NY and Chicago either accept a TOBIN tax to all financial transaction –to shorten
the explosive inequality and avoid Rev- OR use
the right to euthanasia or any form of “decent” suicide. So, October could be the month of burials for our
nasty oligarchy. Yellen’ financial marcial law
either succeed or she die too. In 1930s we have similar Econ crisis, but
people resistance was defeated. In 1935 people rebel went up as it is Now … FDR
got a deal with the oligarchy, either accept the Glass-Steagal Act or die. We
got almost 50 years of Ec prosperity after the Deal.. B-Clinton betray America
by killing the Glass St.Act. Now we have total power at the hands of WS
speculators, under the command of Fed Bankers. They not only got the Central
Econ power, they also finance and semi-control the duopoly party system. So we have to go beyond the Glass Steagal Act and beyond
neoliberal economics, to put US train in its track. Yellen won’t do it,
but the context may force her to do it, as happens with FDR. All depends on the
political power that people can get from the bottom up, using referndums to
force resign Dem n Reps and change rules of econ n political context. New party
and new Fronts will force proportional representation at nation level. Our path
is clear. They have the imperial dilemmas that I briefly described before. They
will betray our nation with more weapons-war business and the predatory
neoliberal system. We will join the productive
capitalists excluded by big speculator & warmongers. The oligarchical
classes are condemned to be defeated, they are corrupted, vicious and nauseabunds.
They are not real American, not ethical humans at all. No matter how.. working
classes will win. ]]
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Coming off the back of another bad week for the
USD, we look to a barren period for the data schedule in the US, so markets will have to determine whether or not to extend this
weakness based on the evidence so far.
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"Federer seems set to reclaim his title, King of Queens, at Arthur
Ashe Stadium for the sixth time, Should this historic coincidence come to pass,
it yet again clear the path for another historic shift
in monetary policy, for the FOMC to start balance sheet reduction in
September."
As Bloomberg's Marc
Cudmore said earlier
this week, when he explained why he more focused on this Fed rather
than the one run by Janet Yellen, "The Fed" has won
seven of the past 14 championships. In every year he’s been victorious,
both the MSCI EM Currency Index and the MSCI EM Equity Index have gained. By contrast, in
five of the seven years he hasn’t finished triumphant, both those indexes have dropped.
That did not mark the end of "Fed vs Fed" spurious
correlation.
As Bank of America's
Chris Flanagan writes in a note on Sunday, "curious as it may be, Federer's
trajectories have mirrored those of the FOMC's rate path; steadily rising in the mid-2000s, pausing since the
crisis, and gradually normalizing back over the last two years."
BofA's conclusion: "Should
this historic coincidence come to pass, it yet again clears the path for another historic shift in
monetary policy, for the FOMC to start balance sheet reduction in
Sept.17."
…
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
"...the
longer the bill's out there, the more conservative Republicans are going to
discover that it's not repeal... and the more that everybody's going to
discover that it keeps the fundamental flaw of
ObamaCare..."
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"The Fusion-Steele matter is explosive because it suggests that Russia’s most
damaging intervention in the 2016 campaign may have been its creation of the Steele Dossier, remarkably paid for by the
Clinton campaign! If so, the
Clinton campaign (not Trump) was the prime sponsor of
Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election."
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The crooks who wants
power.. start their killings inside,
Libyan style
Eberwein was a former Haitian government
official who was expected to expose the extent of Clinton Foundation corruption
and malpractice next week. He has been found dead in Miami at the age of 50.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Nothing said on China by the US media is reliable..
better get www.cgtn.com or CGTN
- YouTube https://www.youtube.com/user/CCTVNEWSbeijing
Despite slumping macro data, a major slowdown in real estate, and the
nation's deleveraging efforts in the last three months, GDP beat, Retail Sales beat, Industrial Production
surged, and even fixed asset investment was above expectations. The Yuan hasn't moved.
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"CNN Exclusive: US suspects Russian
hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis" - CNN, June 6, 2017
"UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials" - WaPo
"UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials" - WaPo
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Predator
drone style combat machines are just the tip of the iceberg for what is
to come down the line of lethal weaponry and some (like
Elon Musk) are worried that when robots are
calling the shots, things could get a little out of hand.
RELATED:
Robots that serve dinner, self-driving cars and drone-taxis could be
fun and hugely profitable. But don’t hold your breath.
They are likely much further off than the hype suggests.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
US Deep State: Sabotaging Putin-Trump
Ceasefire Agreement in Syria By
Federico Pieraccini
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How Russia-gate Met the Magnitsky Myth By
Robert Parry
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Anti-Trump / Anti-Russia Campaign Fails By Moon Of Alabama
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Gazans Are the Victims of Their Own and
Israel's Leadership By César
Chelala
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On the Ground with Israelis and Palestinians By Steve Feldman
We don’t want you to
be pro-Israeli or pro-Palestinian; we demand of you to be pro-peace.
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Moral Corrosion of Drone Warfare By Ray McGovern
A drone base may soon
be coming to your own neighborhood
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Time for the International Left to Take a
Stand on Venezuela By Gregory
Wilpert
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Democrats Gone Mad: The Year of Living
Stupidly By Glen Ford
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
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North Korea and the US: Who’s Really
Provoking Whom? Thadd
checked?
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RT SHOWS
On contact Afghanistan
with Matthew Hoh
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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