JUL 12 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
On Borrowed Time … Must read!
"...having now weaponized short term
lending rates, the nukes can’t be
put back in their silos..."
There are a number of things
you don’t want to hear a central banker say.
One of those things just popped out of Janet Yellen’s mouth – “I don’t believe we will see another
financial crisis in our lifetime.” That has to be up
there with Irving Fisher’s deathless observation from 17 October 1929
that "Stock
prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" or
John Maynard Keynes’ comparably adept forecast from 1927 that "We
will not have any more crashes in our time."
So far, so anecdotal. How
about some data to back up the thesis that, as Thorstein
Polleit puts it, the super bubble is in trouble ?
First, define your
Super Bubble. We can do this in two ways. One relates to longevity (how
long has the bull run lasted ?), the other to valuation (how expensive is the
market now ?). The global bond bull began back in 1981, when 30 year US
Treasury yields peaked at 15.2%. Now, over 35 years later, long bond yields are
below 3%.
Polleit expresses it a little differently, citing
the p/e ratio of bonds so that they might more fairly be compared to stocks. To
calculate the p/e ratio of a government bond, he divides 1 by the 10 year
government bond yield. His results are shown below.
¹For bonds,
calculated as 1 divided by the 10 year government bond yield In his words,
Source: Thomson Financial / Thorstein Polleit
You do
not need to be a financial market wizard to see that especially bond markets have
reached bubble territory: bond prices have become artificially
inflated by central banks’ unprecedented monetary policies. For instance, the
price-earnings-ratio for the US 10-year Treasury yield stands around 44, while
the equivalent for the euro zone trades at 85. In other words, the investor has
to wait 44 years (and 85 years, respectively) to recover the bonds’ purchasing
price through coupon payments.
Meanwhile, however, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps bringing up its borrowing rate; and even the European Central Bank (ECB) is now toying with the idea of putting an end to its expansionary policy sooner rather or later.
Those of us who are hostile to central planning are doubly
hostile to governmental interference in the price mechanism, which is what the
misguided policies of QE and ZIRP effectively are. The definitive text on this
topic is Forty
Centuries of Wage and Price Controls.
Spoiler alert: government
attempts to rig prices always fail, sometimes catastrophically.
The problem facing the likes of Janet Yellen, Mark Carney
[makes sign of the cross and looks urgently for garlic] and Mario Draghi is
that, having now weaponized short term
lending rates, the nukes can’t be put back in their silos.
How can interest rates be
raised meaningfully above zero without crashing the financial system? Perhaps
they can’t. Perhaps unelected monetary bureaucrats should never have been
allowed to take them there in the first place. But we are where we are. Any commentary surrounding monetary policy can now only echo
that tired old joke about the lost traveller who, when seeking advice, is told
that he shouldn’t start from here.
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WTI has extended gains (on weaker
dollar) from last
night's 'bullish' API data in a deja-vu of last week, and DOE data
(showing large draws in Crude and Gasoline)
confirmed continued rebalancing. However, once again mimiccing last week's action,
prices were not exuberant as another surge in
production - to new cycle highs - stymied some of the excitement.
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“I see roughly equal odds that
the U.S. economy’s performance will be somewhat stronger or
somewhat less strong than
we currently project...”
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Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying to the
House Financial Services committee, followed by testimony tomorrow before the
Senate Banking Committee, however her prepared remarks will be released
90 minutes earlier, at 8:30am. Courtesy of RanSquawk,
here are the main things to look for in her prepared testimony as well the
subsequent Q&A...
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The
market seems convinced, judging by the knee-jerk reaction, that
Janet Yellen has
retreated back to her 'dovish'
corner following the release of her prepared remarks...
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Preguntas indecentes .. por quien sea
el “inversor” que las formule
The
Fed’s "balance sheet reduction" may have profound implications for the
dollar, gold, stocks and bonds....
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y corrupto.
Urge cambiarlo
"Let
me state in the strongest possible terms that I agree" the U.S. federal
debt trend is unsustainable, may hurt productivity, and living standards of
Americans.
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Confused yet?
Read this:
"Why aren't the same standards placed on the Democrats. Look
what Hillary Clinton may have gotten away with. Disgraceful!"
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"The Clinton Foundation received actual monetary donations. Trump
received useless
information from Russians hoping to
switch the conversation to something else... All
those attacking Trump on highly questionable grounds need to get a grip on
reality. The
charges against Hillary are not only worse, they are more warranted."
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- Yellen to Address Interest Rates, Balance Sheet (WSJ)
- Stocks Rebound as Dollar Dips on Trump Revelations (BBG)
- Trump Jr.'s Russia emails could trigger probe under election law (Reuters)
- Trump Jr. Emails Fan the Flames of Russia Probe (WSJ)
- Trump’s Credibility Dealt Blow by His Son’s Emails (BBG)
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
Overnight China released its latest monthly
credit data which showed that even as China is trying to choke off its shadow
banking sector, something we showed last month when we discussed the biggest
crash in net bond issuance on record, credit to the broader economy
continues to flow although some analysts are growing nervous that even
this "crazy" number may not be enough.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
De-escalation
in Syria: Why Does the US-Sponsored Al Qaeda “Opposition” Need A Comprehensive
Truce By Mehmet Ersoy,
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Neoliberal
Globalization: Is There an Alternative to Plundering the Earth? By Prof.
Claudia von Werlhof
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
While Trump Talks, The Pentagon Plans For War By Finian Cunningham
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What Happened to America’s Wealth? The Rich
Hid It By Chuck Collins
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COUNTER PUNCH
John W. Whitehead Comply
or Die: the Police State’s Answer to Free Speech Is Brute Force
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Steven Gorelick Our
Obsolescent Economy
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David Hamilton NATO: an
Obituary
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Lilly Adams Lobbying
Against Nuclear Weapons
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
Titles: for you to choose whatever you want to read on
geo-politics
SPUTNIK EXCLUSIVE: What "Salaries" Daesh Terrorists Get for Their Atrocities https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201707121055478023-salaries-daesh-terrorists/
…
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CIA 'Makes Up' Chemical Weapons Evidence to Justify US Assad-Must-Go Policy https://sputniknews.com/politics/201707121055474013-cia-syria-chemical-weapons/
…
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'Who Shoots First Wins': Russian Submarines Receive Advanced 'Duel' Torpedoes https://sputniknews.com/military/201707121055478405-russian-super-torpedo/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Flash points on US
politics: internal contradict.. Hugh Smith good articles reproduced
Posted on July 11, 2017 by Charles
Hugh Smith
What’s the safest investment as
the global economy enters increasingly risky, troubled times? I’ve
reviewed hundreds of academic papers, investment reports and newsletters and
researched long-term strategies and back tests and reached one conclusion.
I won’t keep you in suspense:
it’s bat guano (or seabird guano
if you can’t get the bat stuff). Yes, bat doo-doo is the safest single
investment on the planet.
OK, so I didn’t do a lot of fancy research because that
would have been a waste of time. If the era we’re
entering is fundamentally unlike the previous eras, then studying past
investment results and strategies will generate dangerously misleading
conclusions.
Here’s the thinking
that leads to bat guano being the number one Safest Investment.
1. The safest investment must
have permanent, substantial demand supporting the bid. People
need to eat, and nowadays that means having access to high-quality, organic
fertilizers like bat and seabird guano.
No matter what happens in the global economy, people will still
need to eat and they will need fertilizer to grow enough food to avoid mass
starvation. People will trade oil, gold, whatever they have of value for food,
and while everybody knows about fresh water, good soil and oil to run the
tractors and delivery vehicles, the essential role of wide-spectrum fertilizers
is often unappreciated.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
India e
Israel crean una inquietante “asociación estratégica” Nazanín Armanian
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Corruptos condenan a Lula a prisión. Bra: Condenan a Lula a 9 años y
medio de prisión
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Cardenal despedido por papa Fco 'se
amotina' que lo castren para evitar
más pedofilia eclesial
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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RU fault… they left many of them alive
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EU:
JCPOA 'does not belong to one country' The historic nuclear
deal with Iran is an international agreement which is endorsed by the United
Nations.
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The US, France, Japan and several other
countries already have a military presence in Djibouti. Location: The Horn of Africa nation, strategically located in the
critical entrance from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, lies at the gateway to
the busy Suez Canal waterway and provides a port to neighboring landlocked
Ethiopia.
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Debate: UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia and from
here to Suni terrorists in M-East & asia
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