JUL 13 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Good question
Tech stocks are up once again - for the 5th day in a row, the longest
streak since May - as the business media celebrates FANG's
rennaissance (again). There's just one thing that is 'odd' about this
rally, traders are piling into downside hedges on every uptick in prices...
Something about the love for FANG Stocks
The four stocks – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix,
and Google-Alphabet – all trade on the NASDAQ, which
measures the performance of over 3,000 tech and growth stocks that are
considered a reflection of the economy and capital market.
The S&P 500, which is based on the market capitalization of the 500 largest stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ including FANG stocks, is considered the best representation of the US market. As of June 8th 2017, while the NASDAQ 100 was up 20% and the S&P 500 was up 8.5% year-to-date, FANGs were up more than 3x that of the latter. Year-to-date Facebook (FB) was up 33%, Amazon (AMZN) 34%, Netflix (NFLX) 33%, and Alphabet’s Google (GOOG) 26%, beating returns of both indices.
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Here a negative appraisal:
Is
Yellen Trying To Ride Into The Sunset? Just
blah-blah, no substance in this critique
Yet I
can’t help but wonder if Yellen simply doesn’t want to upset the apple cart
towards the end of her term. She can see the finish line and
I have no doubt she is hoping to make it without a financial crisis, she is simply trying to not make a mistake. So
instead of reinforcing Dudley and Fischer’s message, she plays it safe...But worries
about overly easy financial conditions have not suddenly disappeared..."
Janet
Yellen was sworn into office as the Chair of the Federal Reserve on February
3rd, 2014 and since then, it has been fairly smooth sailing for financial
markets. Sure there have
been bumps along the way, but in the grand scheme of history, they have been
fairly benign.
Yellen’s
term ends in late January 2018, and although no one has confirmed it, let’s
face it - she isn’t staying on.
So Janet has six more months of steering this global supertanker of an
economy. Does she rock the boat and attempt to
quell her critics that claim she has been too easy for too long? Or does she
simply try not to make waves and see if she can keep the balls in the air until
her handoff? Or does she cruise into the sunset at 197 miles per hour, letting
the markets run hot, not caring about the problems she might leave for her
successor?
Yesterday at the Humphrey Hawkins’ testimony, Yellen seemed to
completely abandon any notion that Federal Reserve officials were targeting
financial conditions. Instead she delivered a
boilerplate Central Bank head speech.
Markets took this as a signal that all their concerns about the Federal
Reserve taking away the punch bowl prematurely were overblown.
Risk
was back on baby! Speculators grabbed both stocks and bonds more quickly than your
favourite characters die on Game of Thrones.
But
the absurdity of this chase could best be summed up from this great tweet
from Gains, Pains &
Capital:
Yup, can’t say I disagree. Too much of what
passes for analysis these days is merely pundits trying to forecast Central
Bankers’ next move. I am by no means
immune. I spend far too much time trying to read the tea leaves of each Federal
Reserve officials’ speech.
One of my favourite traders, the terrifically nice guy Anthony Crudele (and host of the
Futures Radio Show), sent out of this tweet that really struck a chord
with me:
This
Fed transparency has become more of a liability than an asset. Instead of
providing policy clarity, it creates confusion as various factions of the
Federal Reserve board debate their positions in a public forum.
There is no doubt in my mind that two of the most important FOMC
board members, Fischer and Dudley, are concerned
about financial conditions becoming too easy, and are proponents of tightening every second meeting until the
speculative fervor subsides. I had assumed Yellen was in the
same camp, but yesterday’s speech throws that into
question.
Yet I
can’t help but wonder if Yellen simply doesn’t want to upset the apple cart
towards the end of her term. She can see the
finish line and I have no doubt she is hoping to make it without a financial
crisis. Like a sports team that is up by a goal in the dying minutes of a game,
she is simply trying to not make a mistake. So instead of reinforcing Dudley and Fischer’s
message, she plays it safe.
Does that mean the Fed has
changed course? I don’t know, but think the market is once
again over extrapolating the most recent Fed officials’ data point. Regardless
of the fact that the speech was from the Fed chair, I
am going to stop getting jerked around by each speech and try to remind myself
of the FOMC board’s longer term objective.
The worries about overly easy financial conditions have not suddenly
disappeared, and in fact, the violent rally will probably further convince Fed
officials that overheating financial markets are a real concern.
Unfortunately, I don’t have any answers, but the one thing I will
suggest is to stop assuming each and every Fed speech represents a change in
policy.
And I will leave you with this one last thought. Often when a team is up by a goal and trying to play out the
clock, they inadvertently change the type of game they have been playing that
got them there in the first place. By doing so, they cause the very outcome
they hoped to avoid.
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OPPOSITE
VIEW: FACTS
FANG Stocks spiked up to a key resistance level then faded to
end the day lower...
With 30Y spiking almost 8bps off the lows to return to
unchanged for the week, before bonds rallied into the close...
The Dollar Index slid once again (but saw quite a reversal
overnight...
Bitcoin leaked back lower again...
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Investors are slowly waking up to the idea that they may not be able to make juicy
profits by betting on a sharp rebound in oil prices. There is
some early evidence that Big Finance is pulling
back, with new equity issuance down
recently.
Last week, the sharp
drawdown in inventories
made headlines, but
buried within the weekly figures was a bounce back in oil production,
reigniting fears that the market will take much longer to balance.
The U.S. shale industry has already added almost a half
million barrels per day since the end of last year, taking production up to 9.3
million barrels per day (mb/d). But production is expected to continue to grow
rapidly, with projections putting output at a record-high 10 mb/d by next year.
The energy sector, by some
estimates, has been the worst performer this year for investors, so many are
getting burned even as they keep the money taps open. Whether in terms of commodity prices (energy fell 11
percent in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) or individual
companies (73 of the 90 companies in the MSCI World Energy Sector Index saw
their share prices decline
in the second quarter), the oil and gas industry has not been a great space
to be in.
Drastic cuts to oil price
forecasts are spreading. BNP Paribas just axed
its 2018 forecast for Brent by $15 per barrel to a lowly $48.
If those depressed price levels stick around, Wall Street will likely grow tired of shale drilling and
start taking its money elsewhere.
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"Central
banks have become the bond market." - Bank of America
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Dicen que la fe mueve montañas. Aquí –si existe- la fe no mueve ni cacerolas
It was
fun while it lasted. For a few brief months, The Fed appeared to
'hawkish, no matter what' as data-dependent morphed into data-ignorant. Markets
relished the confidence-inpiring message from the ivory tower academics... but,
as former FX trader Rich Breslow notes, none of that occurred in reality and
now, "no one really believes even their own
forecasts," adding that, as
markets wake up to this reality, "it's going
to be a long summer."
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US equity markets are ramping higher (aside
from Small Caps) this morning as it appears the word "uncertain" -
uttered ubiquitously by Fed Chair Yellen in the last two days - has a different
meaning in stock-land...
NOTE:
VIX: Volatility Index, shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied
volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
What is meant by volatility in economics? Volatility : It is a rate at which the
price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard
deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may
increase or decrease. Source www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
Perhaps this will help to unite REPs , NO to create the best
health system for all.
In what could very well end up being just another exercise in futility,
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has just released a new version of a
healthcare plan. Here's what it says...
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
While
Americans continue to place all the bets in the casino called Wall Street, via
stocks, bonds and real estate, the East has been
acquiring record amounts of gold and silver.
Furthermore,
something interesting seems to have changed recently in the Silver Eagle sales market.
…
RELATED: This
Nation Just Became The World's Newest Energy Superpower Lots of news this week on energy
companies from one particular spot on Earth... India.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
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It’s
Official: Impeachment Resolution against President Donald J. Trump. H. RES. 438 By Prof Michel
Chossudovsky Official? Did you make it official?.. Without Pol-action the #= zero
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
Syria Summary - Will The Trump-Putin
Agreement Hold? By Moon Of
Alabama
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Tucker Carlson vs Neocon About Syria Must
Watch Video
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Who Is Russian Lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya? By Aaron Kesel
Why was she seated at
a committee hearing on Russia and the Ukraine?
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Progressive Democrats: Resist and Submit,
Retreat and Surrender By
James Petras
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Why Can't the US Left Get Venezuela Right? By Shamus Cooke
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The U.S. Police State’s Answer to Free Speech
Is Brute Force By John W.
Whitehead
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COUNTER PUNCH
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David Krieger U.S.,
UK and France Denounce Nuclear Ban Treaty
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
Convicted Former Brazilian President Lula ‘A Victim of Lawfare’ https://sputniknews.com/politics/201707141055529390-convicted-brazil-president-lula-warfare/
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RT SHOWS
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Worlds Apart
Isolation
vs. conciliation? Ft. Harold James, professor of history and international
affairs
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Flash points on US
politics: internal contradict.. Hugh Smith good articles reproduced
Posted on July 13, 2017 by Charles
Hugh Smith
While buffer has
a specific meaning in chemistry, I am using the word in the broad sense of a
reserve resource that absorbs the initial destructive impacts of crises or
system overloads. Marshland
along a sea coast is a buffer against destructive storm waves, for example.
A savings account
acts as a buffer against financial drawdowns or losses of income that would
otherwise quickly cascade into a full-blown crisis.
Redundancy of resources can act
as a buffer. If an airline maintains an aircraft in reserve,
this reserve plane acts as a buffer against the disruption to the airline’s
scheduled flights should one of its aircraft be unexpectedly removed from
service by a mechanical failure. The reserve aircraft can replace the plane
that was withdrawn from service with minimal disruption.
Stockpiles act as buffers against
supply disruptions. A storage tank of oil buffers a refinery
against any delay in its incoming shipments of crude oil. Supplies of food and
water buffer against severe natural disasters that disrupt regional water service
and food deliveries.
Credit can act as a financial
buffer against unexpectedly high expenses or declines in revenue. If a tire on our vehicle goes flat during a road
trip and we only have a few dollars cash, a credit card buffers the disruption
by funding the replacement tire and labor.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
Precariedad: bacteria mutante del
capitalismo depredador Joan Coscubiela
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Resistiendo al nocaut por tarifazo Ulises Rodríguez
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Keiser
Report "Lo que hace Trump con los
mexicanos es equivalente a lo que hizo Hitler a los judíos"
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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