JUL 11 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
'Dip-buyers' stepped up bravely to rescue stock markets after Trump
Jr.'s email threatened to unravel the hype of Trump tax cuts... but it seems McConnell's
sumemr-school for Senators has saved the day as hope is back that
healthcare (then tax cuts) will emerge... and the S&P reached unchanged...
----
----
"I have this belief that we're flowing
toward the path of 1928-29 when Hoover was president,[By the fall], we'll
have a lot more evidence of declining growth. Growth has been
slipping," he said."
He points to evidence of declining growth as well as that
fall is a weak time traditionally for the U.S. economy as people return from
vacation.
"[By
the fall], we'll have a lot more evidence of declining growth. Growth has been
slipping," he said.
Mark points to key indicators such as credit growth and tax
revenues, which are declining, as proof a recession is around the corner.
He also sees trends that are going to push interest rates
down, making growth harder to find and emerging markets more attractive. Those
trends are the killer D's, according to Yusko: bad demographics in the U.S.,
Europe and Japan and too much debt and deflation.
….
----
----
"... one panel proposed that many of these passive portfolios can
be synthetically constructed as long an Index plus short a +/- 4%
out-of-the-money strangle. Thus, it seems possible that as little as a 4%
decline in a single day could be enough to create critical mass; and
this does not seem terribly inconsistent with many current risk
parameters."
…
A decade ago
institutional investors supported only 20% of Hedge Fund assets; presently,
these investors (with a concomitant demand of narrower risk limits) make up 80%
of the asset class. Since it is common for as little as a 6% drawdown to ignite
a “stop out” procedure at many Liquid Alternative portfolios, it does not seem
unfounded to think that risk reduction measures may preemptively commence near
this 4% inflection (strike) point.
This commentary is not a call from Cassandra, but I will
note that while every low point in Volatility does not lead to a calamity,
extremely low Implied Volatility precedes every financial market dislocation. The purple line below is a variant of the
MOVE Index that is once again kissing its thirty-year nadir.
The FED has actively encouraged and supported our current
low volatility environment, and certainly this made sense in 2009-2011; but
current policy seems to indicate they would like to wean the patient off the
opiate of ZIRP. The slight complication is that
instead of Portfolio Insurance in 1987, or AAA-Sub-Prime bonds in 2007,
financial engineers have found a new way to indirectly market short optionality
strategies to investors who may not fully appreciate the risk of a negatively
convex profile.
“What could be the catalyst to
trigger such a significant pull back?”
CONTINUE READING,
OPEN http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-11/derivatives-trading-legend-little-4-decline-one-day-could-start-critical-crash
----
----
A solid auction and one which coming a day ahead of Yellen's
Congressional testimony suggests there is little fear
in the bond market that the Fed chair can unveil any major hawkish surprises.
----
----
"That is a very different world you have to operate in, that’s a big
change in the tide,... We act like we know exactly how it’s going to happen and we don’t."
...
Louis Crandall, an economist at Wrightson Icap, said at the
time:
"When they [the Fed] launched QE, they were confident
about the direction of the impact but cautious about projecting the precise
magnitude. They should be even more cautious about estimating
the impact of unwinding the portfolio, as they have even less control over the
outcome."
The unwind will be
lumpy for sure...
And today, none other than JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon poured some more cold water on The
Fed's complacency at this 'storm in a teacup'. Speaking at a
conference in Paris this morning, Bloomberg reports that Dimon warned...
“We’ve
never have had QE like this before, we’ve never had unwinding like
this before."
“Obviously that should say
something to you about the risk that might mean, because
we’ve never lived with it before.”
“When [the unwind] happens of size
or substance, it could be a little more disruptive than people
think."
“We act
like we know exactly how it’s going to happen and we don’t.”
Central banks would like to provide certainty but “you
cannot make things certain that are uncertain,” Dimon said. All
the main buyers of sovereign debt over the last 10 years -- financial
institutions, central banks, foreign exchange managers -- will become net
sellers now, Dimon said. Investors
are listening closely to policy makers to determine when and how central banks
will start reducing their balance sheets. A global bond rout spilled over into
equities last week on signs that central banks are taking a more aggressive
stance.
“That
is a very different world you have to operate in, that’s a big change in the
tide,” he said. “The tide is going out.”
Will "the tide is going out" be the "the music stopped playing" quote of this
collapse?
…
----
----
Supposedly catalyzed this time by EIA forecast production cuts, WTI
crude has spiked off an early tumble for the 3rd day in a row, running stops
above $45. It appears the algos missed the fact that EIA also cut its price forecasts for the next
two years, cut demand growth estimates, and confirmed OPEC production is higher
than expected...
RELATED:
The oil market is rather depressed and subdued at the moment, but could
awaken at moment’s notice if
large volumes of oil production are disrupted from some unforeseen event.
----
----
Well
they "built it", but in May, "no one came." Wholesale Inventories rose a
better-than-expected 0.4% MoM but sales tumbled worse-than-expected 0.5% (the
3rd monthly decline in a row).
----
----
POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
Oregon’s state legislature just
reduced penalties for drug possession in a bill also
intended to reduce racial profiling by law enforcement agencies.
----
----
“In order to provide more time
to complete action on important legislative items and process nominees that
have been stalled by a lack of cooperation from our friends across the aisle, the Senate will delay the start of the August recess until
the third week of August,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says
in statement.
----
----
At the G-20 in Hamburg, it is said, President Trump was isolated, without support from the other G-20
members, especially on climate change and trade. Perhaps so. But the crucial
question is not whether Trump is alone, but whether he is right. Has
Trump read the crisis of the West correctly? Are his warnings valid? Is not the
Obama-Merkel vision of a New World Order a utopian fantasy?
----
----
WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"We
are forced to draw a line and answer in a similar way," Klimov
told Izvestiya. "These moves are not meant as our attempts to show our
negative attitudes toward the Trump administration but
rather as evidence of the fact that Russia is a strong nation that deserves
respectable treatment."
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
Battle
For the Net: Mass Day of Action Aims to Stop Trump's FCC from Destroying Free
& Open Internet
----
----
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
Ever
More Official Lies and “False Reality” Emanating from the US Government By Dr. Paul Craig
Roberts,
----
----
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
COUNTER PUNCH
Pepe Escobar The G20 From
Hell
----
----
----
Kevin Zeese - Margaret Flowers Power
Dynamics Changing In World Order
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
TITLES for you to pick up your own geo-political salad
China Sends a Strong Signal About Its Geopolitical Interests in Syria https://sputniknews.com/politics/201707111055449904-china-syria-geopolitical-interest/
…
…
…
US-Led Coalition May Establish Temporary Bases in Iraq https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201707111055449333-coalition-iraq-bases/
…
Ankara Poised to Fully Back Turkish Stream Project https://sputniknews.com/business/201707111055446309-ankara-poised-to-fully-back/
…
…
…
…
----
----
RT SHOWS
----
Keiser Report
Episode
1095 Max and Stacy
discuss credit binges and banking unions, PLUS interview TO professor and
journalist John Mill Ackerman
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
----
----
US Declaraciones David Brooks
Un ciempiés con sus patas fuera de su
territorio Wilkie
Delgado
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
MEX Chambita en chambita, pesito a pesito Los trabajadores freelance
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Keiser Report Perversidad o Incompetencia Así es cómo Méx influenció en la
victoria de Trump
----
----
----
PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario