ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Following
the
biggest 2-week plunge in Bloomberg's index of economic comfort in 6 years,
UMich reports a big disappointment in the preliminary print for June. At
93.1 (below the 95.0 expectation), this is the weakest print since Oct 2016 -
before the election. The drop was driven by a plunge in
'hope' as expectations dropped the most since Oct 2013.
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"...the monetary history
(including eurodollars) of the 21st century comes out very different than the
monetary policy (eurodollars
don’t matter) history of the same period.
The latter leads to drug addicts and
Baby Boomers as an eventual excuse for how QE and ZIRP performed about
as well as monetary policy in 2001, 2002, and 2003. The former leads us to answers..."
In the early 2000’s this was apparent in a whole range of
factors – starting with the stock market.
SEE all graphics at this source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-14/all-conundrums-matter
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The problem for the Fed remains the rising risk
of a monetary policy error against a backdrop of an over valued, over leveraged
and overly bullish financial market. Historically such combinations have tended not to turn out well.
The catalyst was the release of prepared testimony which
included this one single sentence:
“Because the neutral rate is
currently quite low by historical standards, the
federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to
get to a neutral policy stance.”
And on that statement, doves flew and algorithms kicked into
to add risk exposure to portfolios. Why? Because she just said that rates will
remain low forever. As my partner, Michael Lebowitz, noted yesterday:
“Per Janet Yellen’s comment, the
‘neutral policy stance’ is another way of saying that the Fed funds rate is
appropriate or near appropriate given current and expected future economic
conditions. Said differently, Janet Yellen is admitting what we’ve been
saying for years – the economy has been stagnant, is
stagnating and will continue to stagnate.
If we assume that Yellen is
referring to a range of 1.25-1.75% as an appropriate Fed Funds rate, based on
statistical analysis of data since 1955, we forecast
that real GDP growth rate is likely to average somewhere between 2.00-2.50% for
the foreseeable future. For perspective, the graph below plots the
range of expected GDP growth vs historical secular (3-year average) GDP growth.
In years past, such a slow rate of growth
(highlighted in yellow) was considered nearly recessionary.”
The problem, of course, is that a 2% economic growth rate is
not conducive to a strongly expanding economic environment and does not support
current market valuations. The first chart below
compares the cumulative growth rate of the real S&P 500 as compared to GDP.
The great “bull markets of the 50’s and 60’s, the 80’s, and now the 10’s have
all previously ended when the growth of the S&P 500 exceeded the growth of
the economy.
The next chart compares the inflation adjusted market
capitalization rate of the S&P 500 to GDP. As noted on Tuesday, valuations have everything to do with
forward returns on investments over the long-term.
The problem for the Fed remains
the rising risk of a monetary policy error against a backdrop of an over
valued, over leveraged and overly bullish financial market. Historically such combinations have tended
not to turn out well.
While markets may well continue to remain bullish in the
short-term, the longer-term outcomes remain heavily weighted against investors
currently. Of course, the “chase for return”
is always the most prevalent when markets remain illogical longer than
investors can remain rational.
In the meantime, this
is what I am reading.
Politics/Fed/Economy
- Trump’s Very Own “Big Fat Ugly Bubble” by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
- Will Low Inflation Delay Rate Hikes by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
- Fed’s Could Use Some Target Practice by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- Jim Chanos: Economy Worse Than You Think by INET Economics
- Fed Has Put Markets In Survival Mode by Dean Cumutt via Bloomberg
- 4-Signs The Economy Is Stalling by Stephen McBride via Mauldin Economics
- The False Premise Of GOP Tax Cuts by Editorial via New York Times
- Monetary Policy Continues To Fail Society by Third Wave Finance
- “MAGAnomics” On Its Way by Bob Bryan via Business Insider
- New Senate Health Care Bill Looks Like ACA by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Beware New Abnormal Monetary Policy by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate
- Social Security Budget Nightmare Must Be Resolved by Blahous & Reischauer via CNBC
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Markets
- Will Corporate Bonds Cross Over by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- Stock Market Tsunami Warning Rings by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- A Skeptics View Of Popular Stocks by Leslie Norton via Barron’s
- History & Gravity Aren’t On The Side Of Stocks by Sue Chang via MarketWatch
- Stock Picking Dying Due To Dearth Of Stocks by Jason Zweig via WSJ
- Perfect Market Indicator Says Sell Now by Mark Kolakowski via Investopedia
- Beware Of The Stock Market by Joe Ciolli via BI
- Sometimes, The Best Advice Is “Do Nothing” by Simon Constable via US News
- BlackRock: Forget Low Volatility by Joe Ciolli via BI
- Bull Market Ain’t Dead Yet by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
- Summer Investing Reading List by Neil Dwane via MarketWatch
- Recession Could Be Coming by Comstock Partners
- Big Change In Sentiment Coming by Peter Atwater via Hedgeye
- Funds To Consider In A Bear Market by John Coumarianos vis WSJ
- Stock Market 66% Over Valued by Thomas Kee via MarketWatch
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Research / Interesting Reads
- “Carmageddon” Hits Houston by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- The Fast Track To “Carmageddon” by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
- Millennials Not Helping Housing Problem by Mark Hanson via MHanson.com
- A Chat With Peter Bernstein by Jason Zweig via Intelligent Investor
- The Development Of The “Perfect Storm” by Robert Huebscher via Advisor Perspectives
- 5 Mistakes That Can Ruin Your Future by Christy Bieber via The Motley Fool
- Habits To Bring Out The Best In Others by Stephanie Vozza via Fast Company
- Our Financial Buffers Are Thinning by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds
- The Art Of Getting S**T Done by What I Learnt On Wall Street
- Working Past 70, Americans Can’t Retire by Ben Steverman via Bloomberg
- Japan Hits Unlimited Money Printing Panic Button by Jared Dillian via Maulding Economics
- Yellen Warns Congress Debt Trajectory Unsustainable by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Stall Speed by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- A Lowly Bounce In Tech Stocks by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- Rising Rates A Problem For Risk Assets by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
“Most investors want to do today what they should have done
yesterday.” – Larry Summers
….
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Stocks (Dow and S&P) hit record intraday highs... (must
mean everything is awesome, right?)
BUT...
This morning's terrible retail sales and inflation data sent
'hard' data to new post-Trump lows - lowest since May 2015 - as 'soft' data
clings to hope once again, sending 'animal spirits' back near record highs...
GDP expectations have plunged...
And then there is this... Short Interest
in the S&P 500 has not been this low since May 2007, right as the market
peaked...
And as JPM Prime
Broker Services shows, this week saw the largest
amount of short-covering year-to-date...
FANG Stocks had their best week in 3 months... (up 5 of the
last 6 days)
The stock market is near peak
euphoria here (tracked by the
ratio of Fwd P/E to VIX)...
The Dollar is now at its weakest in 10 months...
So to summarize - After months of hawkishness, Yellen drops a slight
hint at 'dovishness' on the rate-hike trajectory and stocks soar to record highs, VIX closes at a record weekly low, bonds
rally, crude oil rips, and gold has best week in months...oh, and macro data dumps!
….
See all graphs at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-14/dismal-data-sends-stocks-record-highs-short-interest-collapses-2007-lows
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En Julio no hay Milagros .. Bajen de
peso y en Octubre los cerdos podrían volar.
The note comes 24 hours
after BofA's chief strategist Michael Hartnett warned that "the most
dangerous moment for markets" will likely come when "rising rates
combine in three or four months’ time with an inflection point in corporate profits.
In anticipation of this, we would use the next couple of months to buy
volatility, and within fixed income slowly reduce exposure to IG, HY, and EM
bonds."
…
Read the whole art at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-14/bofa-lashes-out-fed-take-punch-bowl-away-or-face-crash
…
RELATED 1:
Earlier in the week we noted the 'odd' surge
in downside protection demand even as tech
stocks were soaring, and NOW JPMorgan is noting the S&P has shifted to a large 'negative gamma' underhang ?? which "could boost volatility if we were
to sell off."
RELATED 2
"We adjusted
down our Fed odds accordingly. We now believe there is a 5% probability that
the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come
in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December (a 60%
cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year)."
[[ Que dilema el de los
amos del Imperio: En economía tenemos especulación
financiada para grandes cerdos de WS y la banca privada (case Wells Fargo y
Bofa); y en geopolítica a grandes Corp que lucran vendiendo armas y guerras. Esto
llegó a su tope: o bien causa recesión mundial peor que
la de 1930, o bien la barbarie nuclear del WW3.. En ambos casos el
imperio llegara a su final y sus Gbnos y grandes
oligarcas corren el riesgo de ser decapitadas sin guillotina. Los soldados
americanos -queya se unieron a la causa popular recientemente (contra el
Fracking)- lo harán esta vez armados y con mayor razón si estalla la Rev
popular. En 1935, FDR logro
imponer un pacto o DEAL a los grandes dueños del imperio: o bien subvencionan las demandas del pueblo (trabajo bien pagado, la
mejor salud y educación para todos y techo para quien no lo tiene) , o bien deja
que la revolución estalle. Tuvieron que acceder. Hoy, además de re-adaptar el
Glass-Steagal Act de FDR, el Tobin tax a toda transacción financiera, podría
ayudar a diferir la causa Rev. No hay la certeza de que Ms Yellen logre el
balance económico que ha propuesto. Si no lo logra es posible que los
cerdos vuelen en Octubre .. -con el estallido violento de la recesión-.. y no para
ir al cielo, sino al infierno.. peor aún si se suicidan, -como al parecer- ya está empezando a ocurrir. ]]
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Solo el POST DOLLAR puede parar el Bitcoin.. cada vez que calló.. subió rapid y más alto
The ten largest
cryptocurrencies (by market cap) are all getting hammered once again today as
the August 1st deadline for Bitcoin's
'civil war' looms ever closer.
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Since President Trump's election, global equity markets have added more absolute value than at any time in
history (around $12 trillion) -
surpassing even the front-running exuberance that started when Bernanke hinted
at QE2 in 2010.
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Crook-Dems should
investigate Wells Fargo.. not FANG stock-regular-business
Is
Amazon getting too big? While that question has yet to be formally asked by
the US government, on Friday we got a hint that it may be next on the agenda
after the top Democrat on the House Antitrust
Subcommittee, David Civilline, voiced concerns about Amazon's $13.7 billion
plan to buy Whole Foods Market.
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"it's
a truly terrible idea...."
Obama prometió
“single payer” in health system, luego nos inundó con Pharma’ high-prices
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
"The
phase-in of the actuarial assumption is another exercise in kicking the can
down the road, but we’re not sure how far the can travels. You pay less now, pay more later."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
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Ukraine
De Facto Turns Into a NATO Military Platform, Sharpened for Use Against Russia By Yuri Selivanov
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U.S.
Bases Strategically Placed to Prevent Syrian Military From Advancing; Outlining
Borders of Kurdistan By Brandon Turbeville,
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
The New Silk Road Will Go Through Syria By Pepe Escobar
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You Can’t Understand ISIS If You Don’t Know
the History of Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia
By Alastair Crooke
By Alastair Crooke
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If North Korea Didn’t Exist The US Would
Create It By Nizar Visram
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In Case You Missed It America's War for Global Domination
By Michel Chossudovsky
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Begala: We Should ‘Debate Whether We Should
Blow Up’ Russia By Daily
Beast
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CIA Agent Confesses On Deathbed: ‘We Blew Up
WTC7 On 9/11’ By Baxter
Dmitry
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Naomi Klein n J Corbyn Discuss How to Get The
World We Want Video and
Transcript
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COUNTER PUNCH
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Richard Hardigan Israel
Once Again Reveals Its Disdain for Freedom of the Press
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Robert Koehler Nukes
and the Global Schism
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Michael Doliner The
Hollow Skull of War
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
Spy Games? China Likely Watched
THAAD Missile Test From Ship Near Alaska
https://sputniknews.com/military/201707151055566307-spy-games-china-watch-thaad/
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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Los peligrosos valores del
neoliberalismo Rafael
Silva
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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