JUN 9 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
“The big, experienced smart money is skeptical
of this little-guy created, epic rally.”
Here are the key takeaways from Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Total
Return Bond Fund webcast:
- The stock market is likely to fall from its “lofty” perch. “The big, experienced smart money is skeptical of this little-guy created, epic rally.”
- The Fed violated the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 by buying high-yield bonds and ETFs. Gundlach expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to follow through on controlling the yield curve should the 30-year rate come unhinged.
- Traders think that Powell is Superman, and that the chairman will keep the fed funds rate at zero for the next two years.
- Quantitative easing and zero rates don’t work, otherwise “we wouldn’t be back at them on steroids 10 years later.”
- Negative rates are the biggest kryptonite of all, given that they’re “fatal” for the banking system, he said.
- In the long term, the bond manager is bullish on gold, saying it will reach new highs. Alternatively, he’s sticking to his weak-dollar call, saying the greenback can devalue against most other currencies.
- Coming in waves: Gundlach sees waves of corporate credit downgrades and white-collar unemployment. He said the lockdown has him questioning the usefulness of middle-management, supervisor-types and that he could “easily see” layoffs hitting people earning $100,000 a year.
Update: Gundlach said Copper/Gold Ratio
points to UST10Y around 1.05%
SEE CHART
Cooper-Gold ratio vs. UST 10Y YIELD
Update: Gundlach said look what happened
when "superman Powell" showed up -- Corporate BBB vs. BB yields were
monkey hammered lower.
SEE CHART:
Corporate BBB vs. BB Yield
Update: Gundlach said Powell's
"kryptonite" is negative interest rates -- shows how banking stocks
in Europe and Japan (two areas where central banks (ECB & BOJ) dove
into negative policy) died a slow death over the last decade.
SEE CHART:
Global Banks Stocks
Update: Gundlach said "the shape of
these lines" could be the reason for social unrest
SEE CHART:
U-3 and U-6 Unemployment rate
Update: Gundlach's one bullish chart
SEE CHART:
LEI YoY vs. S&P 500
Update: Dollar vs. Twin Deficits (2-year
Lead) slide
SEE CHART:
DOLLAR vs Twin Deficits (2 years lead)
Update: Gundlach thought E-Mini S&P500
resistance would be at 2900
SEE CHART:
E-Mini S&P 500
Update: Gundlach must be a reader of Zero
Hedge -- outlines how Robinhood trading accounts have surged during
"historic rally" from March lows.
SEE CHART:
Retail Investor Behavior
Gundlach said institutional money isn’t really participating in
the stock market rally. "I'm happy to watch other
people push it [stock market higher." Something else we've
pointed out -- new retail trading accounts
have surged since late last year when online brokers started offering zero
commission trading.
SEE CHART:
Online Brokers Monthly New
Accounts
Read several of our pieces detailing the insanity
behind retail day trading the pandemic:
- Robin Hood Traders Pile Into Carnival As Cruise Ship Operator Extends Suspension
- Bankrupt Hertz Stock Soars 100% On Relentless Flood Of Retail Daytraders
* * *
Update: Gundlach said the decline in small
business optimism is concerning...
SEE CHART:
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Update: Gundlach points out the
"super 6" (Facebook, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Netflix, &
Microsoft (FAAANM)) - said trajectory of FAAANM stocks is not sustainable. Btw
--> as readers know entire outperformance in S&P 500 since 2015 is
widely due to FAAANM
SEE CHART:
S&P 5OO Leaders (May 18
2020)
S&P500 EX-FAAANM is seeing much worse earnings deterioration
vs. FAAANM EPS
SEE CHART:
S&P 5OO Leaders (May 18
2020)
FAAANM Stocks are the EPS difference
Update: Gundlach's slide on U.S.
Equity Prices vs. Rest of World
SEE CHART:
US Equity Prices vs the rest of the world
Update: Gundlach said volatility was
crushed post Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF)
announcement.
SEE CHART:
Federal Reserve Volatility
Update: Gundlach's Market
"All-in" on Fed’s Commitment side -- said the investors
are betting Powell will keep fed funds futures near the zero lower
bound.
SEE CHART:
Update: Gundlach's Market
"All-in" on Fed’s Commitment side -- said the investors
are betting Powell will keep fed funds futures near the zero lower
bound.
SEE CHART:
Market “All-In” on FED’s Commitment
Update: Gundlach said he's bearish on the
dollar, even if the stock market falls...
SEE CHART:
US DOLLAR down
Update: In terms of widening fiscal
deficits -- Gundlach said the US is the largest offender.
SEE CHART:
Widening fiscal deficits
It's that time again when "bond king"
Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine, will hold his periodic live webcast
with investors in his fund and anyone else who wants to listen in. As
usual, readers are invited to join at this following link, or by clicking on
the slideshow below.
This month's webcast is titled "Superman",
which we assume refers not to Gundlach himself, but
rather to the V-shaped recovery the market appears to have priced in recent
weeks.
….
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Buy all The Things! That's
the message from the markets today...
Bankrupt (with
equity worth ZERO), buy it!
See Chart:
Big Tech (at record
valuations amid plunging EPS expectations), buy it!
See Chart:
10 Y US T YIELD : BONDS , buy 'em!
See Chart:
Bullion (but but but
who needs safe havens when The Fed has yr back), buy
it!
See Chart:
It's all an utter farce
and Jay Powell's malarkey (and the rest of his
liquidity-spewing pals around the world) is at
the heart of it...
See Chart:
There's one way this ends...
BLOCKED
Nasdaq (blue) was
panic-bid as soon as the cash market opened and while the other indices opened
lower they were immediately bought also...Small Caps (red) lagged on the day
- this is the first down day for S&P 500 in June! do not panic!
See Chart:
Nasdaq 100 (and
Composite) topped 10k for first time but couldn't hold it...
See Chart:
AMZN and AAPL hit record
highs sending FANGs ever higher...
See Chart:
There is one thing that is being sold... USDs
The USDollar was dumped
for the 9th straight day (11 of last 12 days down)...
Momentum and Value
factors reversed their recent quant-quake trend today...
See Chart:
VIX and stocks have
decoupled this week...
See Chart:
Treasury yields tumbled
for the second day...
See Chart:
With the yield curve
seeing its biggest 2-day flattening since mid-April...
See Chart:
Wondering why bonds are
suddenly bid? Well, they are once again at a positive currency-hedge yield for
foreign investors...
See Chart:
See cases JA & EU
While the dollar dropped and gold gained,
silver ended the day red
Bitcoin ended the day very slightly higher
after a crazy move overnight
And finally, stocks ain't
cheap!! So buy 'em...on margin!!
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-panic-buy-bankrupt-companies-big-tech-bonds-bullion
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Short News on US Economics
This
would result in a further CMBS implosion.
====
US crude inventories were forecast to drop for the second week but API
reported a surprising (and large) 8.42mm barrel build...
====
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"In a period of four months,
it has devastated the whole world..."
====
The global economy will contract by
4.1% in 2020, and then grow by 4.3% in 2021. This means that the corona crisis
will be the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s
Summary
·
COVID-19 is expected to
result in contraction of the global economy by 4.1% in 2020
·
This means that the corona crisis will be the
deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s
·
We expect a relatively
limited recovery in 2021, as many countries will continue to be bound to a
‘six-foot economy’ for a long time
·
Businesses in these countries will not be able
to offer as many goods and services as they did previously, and demand will
remain low for a long time Political tensions between the US and China have
flared up again, and we expect the truce in the trade war to come to an end
·
Downside risks such as a
second wave of infections or a financial crisis continue to dominate
The global economy will contract by 4.1% The rapid succession
of developments relating to the coronavirus (see Figure 1a and 1b) is leaving
deep scars in the global economy. We have therefore had
to downgrade our estimates several times (here and here and here).
SEE MAPS:
We are currently forecasting that the global economy will
contract by 4.1% in 2020, and then grow by 4.3% in 2021 (Table 1). This means that the corona crisis will be the
deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s (Figure
2). The sharp contraction in mainly Western Europe and
Latin America will be offset by more moderate GDP declines in Asia, where
stronger underlying growth in China in 2020 and in India in 2021 will go some
way to limiting the damage.
SEE TABLE
The deepest economic crisis since the 1930s For France,
Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom we are even forecasting a contraction in
gross domestic product (GDP) of more than 10% in, mainly due to the long and
stringent lockdowns in these countries. Another factor
is that the sectors that are the worst hit by the corona crisis, such as
tourism, recreation and hospitality, are relatively strongly represented in
these countries compared to other eurozone countries.
SEE CHARTS:
In the United States, we expect a more limited contraction of
5.7%, again followed by a relatively modest recovery in 2021. In the US, this
relates to the flexible labor market, which lead to a rapid rise in
unemployment which started to come down again recently (Figure 3).
Reopening
the economy is proving difficult
Despite the easing of the lockdown in many countries,
economic activity is increasing only marginally. On the one hand this is due to lack of demand, as
people continue to avoid restaurants, cafés and stores, and also due to
economic uncertainty and loss of income. On the other hand, there
are limitations in the supply side of the economy as businesses and
entrepreneurs are forced to adapt to the six-foot economy. A recent academic study argues that
social distancing will be needed until 2022 to prevent a resurgence of the
virus.
SEE CHARTS
A lengthy period of
social distancing and lower potential growth
Political
tensions between the US and China are flaring up again
US measures
Anti-China
rhetoric as a lightning conductor:
Trump seems to be
using anti-China rhetoric as a diversion from his domestic problems. Trump has lost much
needed popularity in the polls due to his handling of the corona
crisis, the rapidly worsening economy and his threat to
deploy the military to subdue recent demonstrations and social unrest.
SEE CHART:
With the presidential elections upcoming in November, Trump is trying to make electoral gains with his tried and
tested anti-China tactic. Trump is indeed not alone in this stance, as
his Democratic opponent Joe Biden is also planning to
act against China.
Chinese measures
China has not been sitting on its
hands either. It expelled several American journalists in March, and state-run food
companies (Cofco and Sinograin) have
been instructed to buy fewer products from the
US. This fits the view that China is not ready
to observe the trade agreements in the Phase 1 deal, as available import
data for the first three months of 2020 are showing a
negative rather than a positive trend (see Figure 9). This also confirms
that China’s import commitment was always highly
unrealistic right from the start. In combination with the recent
political tensions between the two countries, we
believe the deal is likely to break down before the year is out.
SEE CHART:
Downside
risks
Despite our heavily downgraded economic forecasts and rising
geopolitical tensions, there are several risks that could make the outlook even
worse. Four of these risks are discussed below. A
second wave of infections Countries around the world are currently easing their
lockdowns. There is a possibility that this easing will open the door to a new
wave of infections, forcing countries to impose a new period of lockdowns to
restrict the spread of the virus.
A financial crisis
The current economic crisis could
turn into a financial crisis, in which financial institutions get into
difficulties. For instance, if there is a second or third wave of
infections that leads to a sharp increase in bankruptcies, a rapid deterioration in bank balance sheets and liquidity
issues for banks themselves. The consequence could be that lending to businesses comes to a halt, putting more
businesses in trouble and creating a vicious circle. The
volatility in the financial markets that marked the start of the corona crisis
has therefore also waned.
Zombie
companies
‘Zombie
companies’ will increase in some countries. Zombie companies are businesses
that are barely profitable now and their outlook for future profitability is
bleak. These companies thrive in an environment of low interest rates and a
financial system that rolls over loans to loss-making companies. Even more
loose monetary policy by central banks encourages this ‘zombification’
process.
Zombie companies represent a problem
for the post-crisis recovery as they are less productive and innovative than
healthy businesses. According to the BIS,
a one percentage point increase in the proportion of zombie companies in a
country leads to a decline of 0.3% in annual GDP growth.
SEE CHART:
The Proportion of zombie firms
in The US has risen substantially
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-comes-after-deepest-economic-crisis-great-depression
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Adding insult to injury: we invent
a Mafiosi way of ruling the political
system
In one of
the starkest examples of how mob rule has taken over the Land of the
Free, ‘defund the police is now
rapidly moving from being just a hash tag, to becoming a reality’... [ and the next day : “I did not say that” ].
…..
In this way the innocent ‘art of lying’ from a pre-teenager is
converted into dystopian insult to the whole Nation . This
can’t be called a “new form of Govt”, it is just the opposite: it is ‘a new form of disgoverning the Nation’.
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Este: No encontró su fortuna en la “Casa
Blanca” como la mayoría de POTUS en el US
This one didn’t find his
fortune in the White House, as most Presidents of the US
"At least four people died
searching for a chest filled with gold and jewels hidden a decade
ago..."
====
You wanted file-miñon to celebrate white racism? You got it. Sorry
if overcook
"A charred pole is all that's left..."
====
Iconic base names such as Fort
Hood, Fort Bragg, Fort Benning and others now
on chopping block amid national protests...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
El que ríe al último, ríe mejor . The
last laugh is the best. If there is WW3 US will gotit
Rare moment top US envoy admits
US sanctions
strangling the starved population...
….
How many nations hate US because unpunished genocides? Muchas, a lot.
Yo nací en
un país donde se dice ‘wayna pistanaj’: el que la hace la paga.
El derecho a
la venganza espera hasta que un día llega su día, siempre llega
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-Trump
Claims Violen at US Protests Incited by Maduro Affiliates, Offers No Evidence
Cuando Hitler dijo que mi violencia la creo mis enemigos se olvidó lo
dicho en Mi Lucha A Trump le ocurre lo
mismo, pero su afán de instalar el fascism esta siendo derrotado
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am
search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION:
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ALAI NET
ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Merkel,
Macron y Sánchez instan a la U E a
prepararse para una próxima pandemia https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356084-merkel-macron-ue-prepararse-pandemia
López
Obrador: una conspiración de la derecha
busca quitarlo de la Presidencia https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356043-lopez-obrador-conspiracion-derecha-derrotarlo
US comienza
a retirar la Guardia Nacional tras los
disturbios por George Floyd https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356089-guard-nacion-comienza-retirarse-eeuu
No hubo
fraude electoral según la OEA y el guion trazado por EE.UU https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/javier-buenrostro/356051-guion-oea-eeuu-golpe-estado-bolivia
Irán
ejecutará a un agente de la CIA involucrado en el asesinato de Soleimani https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356005-iran-ejecutara-agente-cia-asesinato-soleimani
El Senado
de EE.UU. aprueba a un afroamericano como jefe de la Fuerza Aérea https://actualidad.rt.com/video/356080-senado-aprueba-afroamericano-jefe-fuerzas-aereas
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming By Stephen Roach
- Here's what should have been in Trump's stimulus
package By Sameer Butt
- American police shoot, kill and imprison more
people than other developed countries. Here's the data By Rob Picheta and Henrik Pettersson
- Militarized Police a Gift from Israel? By Philip Giraldi
- Defund the Police, Defund the Military
By Medea y Nicolas
- Trump’s Last Gasps of Collapsing World
Control – Or is it? By Peter
Koenig
- Russia Attempts To Freeze The Conflict In
Libya By Moon Of Alabama
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VOLTAIRE
NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò
believes that the public response to the Covid-19 pandemic was medically
unfounded and constituted the largest social engineering operation in history.
According to him, it was sponsored by the same actors as those behind the world
demonstrations sparked by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Having
failed to impose their views on President Trump, these actors are now
distorting his words to cut him off from his electoral base.
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Probably the greatest success of the
civil rights movement was respect for human dignity. All lives mattered under
the law. That was then, but today the same concept has been turned on its head.
We are told to take a knee or face the consequences. Social shaming is being turned
into a ruling ideology.
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis
that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Immigration Agents
Target People at Police Brutality Protests, Including a U.S. Citizen Military
Vet
- DACA
Recipients “Want to Be in the Streets Building Solidarity” But ICE Arrests 3 at
Phoenix Protest
- DACA
Recipients “Want to Be in the Streets Building Solidarity” But ICE Arrests 3 at
Phoenix Protest
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