JUN 28 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
We have some important updates on the COVID-19 front early
this evening
….
·
Dallas asks for stay at home order to be
reinstated, as Dallas County reports record high in daily cases
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
The collapse in short exposure of
more than 206K contracts was the third biggest on record, and was surpassed
only by two short-squeezes observed right around the time of the great quant
crash in the summer of 2007.
by Tyler
Durden Sun, 06/28/2020
After three months of relentless contrarian bearishness by
institutional investors, even as retail investors first, and hedge funds
subsequently (latest HF
net leverage is 99%-ile) flooded into stocks, large institutions such as
vanilla mutual funds and pensions finally capitulated
to the Fed which is now openly pushing stock prices higher. In the
CFTC's latest weekly futures data, the amount of net
short covering of Emini futures among non-commercial speculative investors
exploded, and was the biggest since 2007 and the third highest on record.
SEE CHART:
As a result, in
the week ended June 23, ES net specs surged to -97,078 from -303,305 which was
the biggest ES net short position since the Sept 2011 US credit rating
downgrade. The collapse in short exposure
of more than 206K contracts was
the third biggest on record, and was surpassed only by two short-squeezes
observed right around the time of the great quant crash in the summer of 2007.
SEE CHART:
Were capitulating institutions the
latest to ring the bell at the top of the market? It certainly seems like it:
according to Deutsche Bank's Parag Thatte, both consolidated....
SEE CHART:
Consolidated Equity Positioning
... discretionary and systematic
strategies divide, have all turned decidedly more bullish in recent days after
mostly ignoring the recent market ramp.
SEE CHART
That said, Risk Parity-Equity Beta
funds continue to lag re-entering the market, which means that after suffering
substantial losses on the way down, RP funds such as Bridgewater have failed to
recover losses on the upside.
SEE CHART:
The same thing appears true for CTAs, which as we reported
last week, have been flip-flopping on either side of bullish or bearish in
recent months.
Curiously, the general chaos and lack
of directionality across markets means that CTAs have zero conviction about any
assets class, not just stocks, with bonds, USD, gold and oil all at roughly 0%
exposure.
SEE CHARTS:
Incidentally, as MacroCharts showed after we first pointed out
this surge in short covering, the last time we
observed such a dramatic move higher in net short exposure - which is basically
an unwind of downside hedges - the market predictably tumbled. We doubt this
time will be different.
SEE CHART:
And what's worse: at least in 2007 there was liquidity as
markets were still markets, not reliant on the Fed to backstop even a modest 5%
drop. Now, between HFTs that turn off at the smallest sign of trouble, and asset managers who go bid less the moments there is a -1000
TICK, liquidity is non-existant. Which is why
all that would take to trigger the next crash is some concerted selling.
SEE CHART:
….
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Peruvians: Read this and declare Gold “Buenaventura” its National
Strategic Resource
Gold is the ultimate store of value,
as it’s the only globally accepted financial asset without counterparty risk,
and it has preserved its purchasing power throughout history. In the long-term,
the stability of gold’s value is unparalleled.
Submitted
by Jan Nieuwenhuijs from Voima Insight.
For thousands of years gold is the ultimate store of value.
Currently, gold is undervalued as there are massive bubbles in asset markets
and central banks continue to print money, which supports these bubbles. This
is an unsustainable situation; and when the bubbles burst the gold price will
rise.
The Price
of Gold Goes Up
Why? Because fiat currencies can be created boundlessly, over
time their value declines, and thus the price of gold denominated in fiat money
goes up.
In August 1971—when the last remnants of the gold standard
were abandoned—the gold price was $41 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. At the end of May 2020, the gold price had reached $1,729
dollars per ounce, an increase of more than 4,100%.
SEE CHART:
Gold
Preserves its Purchasing Power
This is the power of gold: it preserves
personal as well as generational wealth.
SEE CHART:
On the Voima Gold
homepage you can see that since the euro was created in 1999, the gold
price in euros has gone up by 550%. When corrected for
(consumer price) inflation, gold in the eurozone has increased in purchasing
power by 350%
in 20 years.
SEE CHART:
Gold Keeps
up With Other Financial Assets
The poor result of the bills is because they are denominated
in currencies that have been strongly debased since 1912. The U.S. dollar, for example, lost more than 98% of its value
against gold over this time horizon
SEE CHART:
Compared to stocks and long-term bonds gold’s performance is
impressive as well. With dividends reinvested, gold has kept up with the U.S.
stock market since 1971, and outperformed it since 1999. Although, gold did
worse than the U.S. stock market since 2009.
With interest reinvested, gold has
outperformed U.S. Treasuries (government bonds) since 1971, 1999, and 2009.
SEE CHART:
CPM Group calculated that the best risk-return balance of an investment
portfolio is reached when it includes 20% of gold (next to an equal share of
stocks and bonds).
SEE CHART:
The
Future of Gold
Currently, the stock market is
overvalued versus gold, as can be seen in the chart below. Gold will outperform
stocks in the years ahead.
SEE CHART:
The Threat
of Bank Bail-ins
Last but not least, a serious threat for people’s fiat
savings held at commercial banks, are “bail-ins.” In 2014, the European Union
adopted the Bank
Recovery and Resolution Directive. The implemented rules dictate that when
a bank becomes insolvent, the banks' shareholders and creditors pay the costs
through a bail-in mechanism.
Conclusion
Above is a list of reasons why it makes sense to own gold.
Gold is the ultimate store of value, and offers protection from inflation
caused by reckless money printing by central banks.
The stock market is currently
overvalued, as economic growth around the world is collapsing due to the corona
crisis. Stock indices haven’t corrected yet, because they are high on the newly
printed money. On June 24, 2020, Money Manager Jesse Felder wrote (based
on calculations), “the current disconnect between stock
prices and sustainable profits is, in fact, greater than anything we have seen
in modern history.” Hence, I believe gold will perform better than stocks in
the years ahead.
….
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So far, it's a repeat of last Sunday's gloomy open.
SEE CHART:
Emini S&P Futures
Below is a snap-hot of the total
cases and deaths in the United States as of 28th June 2020 via the NYTimes.
SEE CHART
Payrolls
& Powell
Pleasant
Surprise? To Whom?
Recent US economic indicators in the
US have continued to surprise to the upside with the Citi Economic Surprise
Index standing at a record high.
SEE CHART
Expectations are that the US has added another 3.074mln jobs
in the last month with unemployment expected to decrease once again to 12.3%
from 13.3%.
HOWEVER, I think it would be
unwise to take these figures on face value as with an emerging second wave
virus across several of the largest US states, in
addition to the methodology quirks that have under reported the true level of
unemployment, I think the data will do little to change markets current
thinking.
IS TRUMP
ALREADY TOO FAR BEHIND BIDEN?
Biden was 17.7 ahead & now is 9.4% .. in less than a month.
This was the headline from the FT's Big
Read this weekend and comes in the context of Biden holding a 9.4
point lead in the Real
Clear Politics Average poll of polls.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/biden%20trump%206.28.jpg?itok=lxEk1S3W
[ Chart was not updated ]
BY COMPARISON, BIDEN HAS BEEN
HUNKERING DOWN. The problem comes
when, at some point, Biden will need to emerge and
confront the combative President and therein lies the problem in my mind.
SEE CHART: [ not updated either. What
is the electorate in State of both sides? ]
Trump has already been targeting the democrat candidate in
numerous jibes and memes. Although people are fully aware of Trump's diversion
and deflection tactics on Twitter, he is clearly making
one error: attack the person not his arguments ( the sleepy Joe is definitely a low IQ person) . So, Trump is
incurring in Ad Hominem
Fallacy. In logic and rhetoric, a personal attack is
called an ad hominem. Ad hominem is Latin for “against the man”. So, Trump replaces logical arguments with language attack
unrelated to political truth on the matter.
Let’s see if Trump correct himself during the coming debates. He
has to attack Biden errors when he was VP (his direct
& indirect complicity In Hillary-Obama miss-behavior ++. There are a lot of
things to be uncovered.)
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
LA
LUCHA CONTINUA..VENCEREMOS!. THE STRUGGLE WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL WIN!
...defying public health concerns in
favor of continuing what has become a month-long streak of aggressive public activism.
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"So about that V-recovery?"
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Good news for Trump vs Biden: El Coronel tiene quien le escriba
Public health systems will be better
positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping
up, the authorities are more attuned to potential strains on medical equipment
and services, and they will stockpile supplies.
Unsurprisingly, the
number one question we get from investors is whether this resurgence disrupts
our call for a V-shaped recovery. The answer is
no. We remain confident that the
global economy will regain its pre-COVID-19 levels in four quarters and DM
economies in eight quarters.
SEE CHART:
SOCIALISTS AT THE TOP?
However, we think that public health systems will be better
positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping
up, the authorities are more attuned to potential strains on medical equipment
and services, and we believe that they will stockpile supplies ahead of the
autumn.
Hence, we believe
that the global economy will be able to sustain its recovery and avoid a double
dip, keeping us firmly in the V camp.
[ Creo que lo quiere MORGAN STANLEY es invertir en CHINA . No sería raro. Ya
varios se fueron y jamás regresaron ]
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We need to convert Health &
Educ a State Own Enterprise & take out private business
Like the ones Cuomo ordered to accept infected patients?
….
Cuomo
initiative was good but he had no idea on how it works in China
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Hillary deserve prison &
confiscate her assets because Gold Stolen in Libya + kill in Beng
"Hillary Clinton apparently attended numerous events,
including small gatherings, with Nader"
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We
urgently need to transfer Health system to SOWEs & take out private
speculators
Politicians
will insist it's all "worth it" and"we're all in this together." The longer it goes
on, the less the public will
agree...
….
RELATED:
"Our data shows the largest
spikes of permanent closures occurred in March, followed by May and June, indicating
that the businesses..."
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LOVE for DEFEAT: war mongers
lose the wars abroad & may want to lose inside too
How did so
many police departments across the United States end up with bomb-proof trucks
and night vision goggles? Where are departments acquiring this equipment, and
at what cost?
….
Communal –Police
need those weapons. Can Morgan Staley convince them that Socialism is the best transition after neoliberalism. No way to reproduce same
system (predatory capitalism) . Productive Capital + labor & Middle classes
can work hand on hand to develop our
Nation as happen with FDR. They need each other & the US need them. Para los billonarios especuladores
importaremos de Francia las navajas de Robespierre. FDR
los expropio pero los dejo vivos. Ese fue su error, no aplicarles la bendición
sagrada de las guillotinas francesas.
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Comey es un cadaver insepulto, un Lazaro full
de gusanos que no cabe en el circo Elect
Director
Billy Ray envisioned billboards
screaming, “Comey Vs. Trump” in the heat of the election battle...
…..
El lazaro-Comey solo existió en el dogma Cristiano que ya ni los niños
tontos creen. A Trump tienen que inventarle otro inmenso animal pero con
cerebro o quizá un basketbolista famoso podría
hacerle competencia. Solo entonces abandonaría mi ABSTENTIONISM
e iría a las urnas a dejar mi
voto rebelde.
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WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search
for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
ISR main allies: US & Saudi
jihadist +UK. Target:London,
Dimona +Tel Aviv+ Jesura-bunk
Tel Aviv being "pushed to brink" over Iran's
uranium enrichment and recent successful satellite launch...
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Like the ones Cuomo ordered to accept infected patients?
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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