JUN 8 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
On the day that NBER announces the US Economy
officially entered recession in February, S&P scrambled green year-to-date...
See Chart:
Nasdaq
100 and Composite both made new record highs
Because
fun-durr-mentals...
See Chart: Global liquidity Proxi
S&P
500 vs S&P500 Consensus 12 m Fwd EPS
But while the surface of the ocean of wealth
creation looks "calm" and v-shaped, it is a turmoiling disaster down
below as a major quant quake is under way as inflation bets are resurgent.
All momo gains YTD are now
erased as the momentum factor tumbles 6 days in a
row (this is the biggest 6-day
drop on record)...
See Chart:
And markets are the most 'euphoric' since 2002:
See Chart:
Panic Euphoria Model
On the day, Small Caps
dominated and while Nasdaq lagged it was still up another 0.5% (note the market
never really accelerated until Europe opened and dived at the US open only to
be insta-bid right after)
VIX was
higher on the day as it appears the call-buying is accelerating as stocks surge
(never ends well)...
See Chart:
The
S&P is the most overbought since Jan...
See Chart:
Sin duda: con esta data Trump gana la
re-election
"Most
Shorted" stocks are up 12 of the last 13 days (and 7 days in a row) went
up
See Chart:
BUT: Treasury yields fell for the first time in 6
days (except 2Y which rose 2bps as the yield curve flattened notably today)...
See Chart:
10Y
Yields are back below 90bps (down around 9bps
from Friday's highs)...
See Chart:
Interestingly
the bond rally today was against the trend in the momo/value move...
See Chart:
The B-dollar
Index fell for the 8th day in a row - the
longest streak of losses since 2011
See Chart:
Oil
prices dared to fall today after Goldman suggested things were not quite as
rosy as investors hoped (and hedge fund positioning was reduced)...it seems $40
was a limiter...
See Chart:
And finally, there's this utter farce.
Bankrupt
HTZ stock is up 681% in the last 3 days and 1450% from its
bankruptcy-announcement lows...
See Chart:
"Broken markets" indeed!!
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quant-quake-continues-momentum-melts-down-stocks-bonds-rally
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"I want to circle back to positioning one more time -
b/c it has played a large role in recent price action - and, I’ll hazard a
guess on the month ahead..."
QUICK POINTS,
CHARTS:
1. I want to circle back to positioning one more time - b/c it has played a large
role in recent price action - and, I’ll hazard a guess on the month ahead:
i. the discretionary
trading community is decently risked up.
ii. the systematic
trading community -- think CTA / risk parity / vol control -- have turned buyer
and can certainly increase length from here.
iii. within the retail cohort, I’d argue
there’s a clear demographic divide. the Boomers are selling equity
mutual funds and ETFs most every single week ... that totals $73bn of YTD
outflows.
iv. looking ahead,
both the June expiry and quarter end should be on the radar screen
2. as pointed out by sales & trading colleague Brian
Friedman, suffice it to saythe Fed has
largely suppressed interest rate volatility.
3. if I had to sum it up in a line: risk sentiment is considerably less bearish
than it was just one month ago, but it’s hard to find many genuine bulls within
the professional trading community.
As you can see in CHART below the
latest GS Quick Poll data (link), sentiment on risk assets is better balanced
today as compared to months, but it’s by no means extended (and the distribution
suggests few people believe in tail outcomes, where I’m still inclined to be
open-minded, particularly on the laggards; more available):
SEE CHART: Sentiment
4. through all the volatility of recent months, I find it
notable that investor focus on the
ESG theme has remained intact, if not accelerated (link).
this is evident in both the performance of the ESG factor and actual fund
flow. this is worth underlining: ESG fund flows
represent 31% of all global fund flows YTD (link). here’s one implementation that I like
structurally: GSXURNEW is a basket of 31 US companies that stand to benefit
from a transition to cleaner energy. this is the basket vs S&P:
SEE CHART:
5. perhaps rightly, there’s an open
question right now on the dominance of US assets on a go-forward basis.
well, as the old Dreyfus ads used to say: past performance is no indication of
future results ... but, it is something to consider (link):
SEE MAIN CHART:
Equity /Bond Portfolio Performance
Across Regions
6. to the point up top on the US travel and leisure industry,
this survey of 27 corporates was notably positive (link).
importantly, as pointed out to me by sales & trading colleague Scott
Feiler, this comes from a starting point of deep bearishness and
skepticism. many assume these data points are just stimulus-driven or
pent-up demand off an extremely low base; the surprise would be if these consumer trends prove
to be more durable than just the initial bounce:
SEE TABLE:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-what-goldmans-head-hedge-fund-sales-thinks-will-happen-next
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“The
system is bankrupt, and
they arejust spending the money to
prevent an immediate collapse as opposed to having it collapse
right now..."
LISTEN TAPE: https://youtu.be/Y7phMxesIsM
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The daytrader gambler who
bought at $84.75 after hours in hopes of finding an even greater idiot to sell
to - such as Jerome Powell perhaps - will be disappointed.
How insane is this "market"? So insane that shale
pioneer Chesapeake, which for weeks has been rumored to be on the verge of bankruptcy, exploded by
over 300% from Friday's closing print of $25 to $84.75 after the close.
SEE CHART
No more dumb money?
Well, the daytrader gambler who bought at $84.75
after hours in hopes of finding an even greater idiot to sell to - such as
Jerome Powell perhaps - will be disappointed because as Bloomberg reported
shortly after the close, Chesapeake
is preparing a bankruptcy filing that could hand control of the oil and gas
company to its senior lenders, as in no value to existing equity, which as of
the close on Thursday had a market cap of $684 million, an increase of
over 425% in the past two days!
For those who are about to say that there
may be some value to the equity, just a take look at the June 2021 bonds which
are about to default and are trading at 3 cents on the dollar and just keep
your mouth shut.
SEE CHART
Here's what Chesapeake equity holders (at the very bottom of
the capital structure, in case you did not know) have to overcome to get any
value:
1. Debtor-in-Possession Financing: Amount large enough to pay
lawyers, bankers etc. during bankruptcy.
2. Secured
Bank Debt: $3.4 billion outstanding and said cue outrage mob at the
deadly rallies
3. 2nd Lien Debt: $2.33 bln outstanding. Trading at $0.055 on
the dollar. $2.2 bln total impairment
4. Senior
Unsecured Notes: $3.34 bln outstanding. Trading around $0.05 on the
dollar. $3.2 bln total impairment.
5. Equity: 9.783 mm shares out trading at $66.50. $650mm equity
cap
Bottom Line:
Debt with
a principal balance of $5.67 bln currently trades with a total impairment of
$5.4 bln.
That debt would need
to be made whole before equity holders received anything.
In other words - "Mark it Zero!"
But while the dumb money appears to have run out of greater fools (or Feds) to sell to in CHK, bankrupt HTZ is
still soaring after hours (up a stunning 170% today alone)...
SEE CHART:
Is bankrupt Hertz about to become the
new Volkswagen as shorts suffer the indignation of being 100% fundamentally
correct about value but far off in the mentally unstable market's willingness
to price in any possibility of upside.
Maybe HTZ should consider selling some stock here?
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chesapeake-prepares-file-bankruptcy-after-stock-surges-300-one-day
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"How is this not cultural appropriation?"….
RELATED:
Derek Chauvin, the police officer
caught on video choking out Floyd with a knee on his neck, saw his bail doubled
to $2 million
====
Following a report in today's WSJ
noting new data showing SARS-CoV-2 spreads more quickly in sparsely populated
areas where homes are more crowded (perhaps because more extended family
members live together) than densely populated but affluent areas like Manhattan
and North Brooklyn, the World Health Organization has just announced another
epic flip flop.
====
Just
over a week ago much of America
faced jail if they dared break the "social distancing" rules put in place by tyrannical governors
and other public officials. Now tens of thousands gather to protest a police killing with impunity...
====
The atmosphere is strikingly similar for
those familiar with history and specifically the course of the French Revolution...
====
DEFEAT MILITARY FASCISM: THE
CORE OF RACISM TODAY
Hugo
Adan
6/8/2020
This is
my reaction to the article below:
LISTEN THIS:
"We are aware of efforts
by individuals linked to America's adversaries... to instigate
conflict, help incite violence, and divide Americans by exploiting peaceful
protests" — Trump admin official
….
….
Who is instigating phobias Against “American adversaries” ?
Those who did it are
clearly fostering military fascism in US & WW3
Key Qt:
WHO IS SUCH ‘Trump admin -official’
? Is that POMPEO ++?
I do have a
collection of quotes from him, that is Why I suspect him.
If he is
the main instigator of military dictatorship on Americans?..
Why is he in
power? Who is behind him? Is WW3 his aim
now?
IF WW3 is
his aim.. THEN: He is anti-Anti-American & anti-global humanity.
He know that WW3
leads to MAD & global infestation with nuke radiation.
Is TRUMP
supporting him? .. besides Corp of the
Military Indust Complex.
IF SO.. Our nation
must demand to Sup.Court his resignation + whole team
WE NEED A
CLEAR TRANSITION TO PEACE, FREDOM & JUSTICE
WE NEED TO INITIATE
THE DISMANTLE OF NUKES WORLD WIDE
FASCISM HAVE NOT SPACE IN AMERICA and NOT at WORLD level.
WE MUST STOP THEM
NOW! HOW? By ABSTENTION in US ELECTIONS
Why? Because
both Trump & Biden are racist & supporters of WW3,
They don’t say so,
but that silence is a sign of complicity nowadays.
We do not
have a 3rd choice to vote, not point in voting the lesser evil.
HOW to avoid WW3? By demanding a UN Gen-A to order dismantle
NUKES
HOW? NO
VOTING BIDEN.. THE SILENCE VOICE of FASCISM from
Billionaires
PEOPLE IS
ELECTING REV NOW.
The buying of votes is a mock to Democracy
REV FOR
PEACE, FREDOM, JUSTICE and REAL DEMOCRACY is Peoples aim
REVOLUTION WILL WIN!!
US PEOPLE WANTS RADICAL CHANGE & PEOPLE WILL GOT
IT!!
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ARE
MILICIAS POPULARES ready to replace the
police-military fascistic staff
...a police-free utopia? Given the opportunity, there are a lot of people that will burn, loot, riot and harm others without even feeling
bad about the pain that they are causing to others...
====
With the
2020 U.S. presidential election fast approaching, many people will be glued to
the 24-hour news cycle... Yet,when
searching for facts, our own cognitive biases often get in the way...
====
"It is concerning enough for us
to slow down and see what’s happening over the next few days..."
====
"Black people still aren't very social about their
firearms."
====
"And the thing that scares me,
judge, I'm hearing close to 600 cops have either put in their papers, or
they're talking to the department about resigning or retiring..."
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The global
crisis is not merely economic;
it is the result of profound
financial, sociological and political trends described by Marx,
Kafka, Orwell and Huxley...
My recent book:
Will
You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).
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Follows last month WaPo report of"ongoing" White House conversation to
resume nuke testing for first time in 28 years...
====
SATELLITE
DATA, INTERNET SEARCHES SUGGEST COVID-19 HIT CHINA 'LONG BEFORE' PREVIOUSLY
KNOWN: HARVARD
"The increase of both signals
precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December."
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Mund: “Impacto de cambio climát será similar al CV-19” B de P
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Deep-State Goes Deeper as It Moves Toward
Martial Law By Ed Curtin
- Lies made the unemployment rate look better
than it is. By Heather Long
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VOLTAIRE
NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
by Thierry Meyssan
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por Thierry Meyssan
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and Stacy ask whether or not
wrestling is real or fake. And apply the metaphor of ‘professional’ wrestling
to the media entertainment industry, where partisan ‘wrestlers’ (aka
‘journalists’) battle it out for Good versus Evil. In the second half, Max
talks to Isaiah Jackson, author of "Bitcoin and Black America,"
about the economic, monetary and financial injustice at the heart of the unrest
there.
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Wall Street continues to rally
gaining back losses from earlier this year. It has been said that the markets
are not the economy, but it may be more obvious now than ever. This week guest
host Rachel Blevins sits down with Sara Montes De Oca of Boom Bust to discuss
this disconnect from Wall Street
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Minneapolis
City Council Vows to Dismantle Police Dept. After Mass Protests &
Grassroots Organizing
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