JUN 21 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
...the US was the second-largest contributor with 36,617
cases...
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
While it is
relatively easy to predict that the post-corona economy will suffer from high unemployment, the outlook
for price inflation is
not so certain. On the one hand, there will be high
government deficits and more public debt; on the other hand, given the weak
economy, consumers and companies may refrain from taking on new debt and could
begin to lower their debt burden.
CHECK SUB TITLES & READ COMPLETE ART:
Monetary Expansion Doesn't Always Lead to Price
Inflation
Problems with Measures of Price Inflation
QE Forever?
A Credit Contraction—until the Dam Breaks
The Importance of Sound Economics
More Intervention Will Bring Even More Economic Damage
Conclusion
1-The lockdown of the economy and the imposition of social isolation
have led to large-scale economic disruptions.
2- The upcoming challenge requires the reconstruction of the capital
structure and the restoration of global cooperation.
….
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Friday's
skittish mood has carried over into the Monday early trades.
For once, the spread betting estimate of where Dow futs would be on
Sunday was correct, and with IG expecting a drop of
-230 points several hours ahead of the market open...
SEE CHART:
... that's precisely what we got at 6pm ET when
Dow futs opened down 250, Spoos were -30 and the Naz -80.
SEE CHART:
Why the early encounter with gravitation? Because as Amplify
Trading writes, the market still remains wary of a second wave of
coronavirus with nationwide cases in the US up 15% in the last two weeks and
cases rising in 18 states across the South, West and Midwest, according to the
NYT. Over the weekend, new cases in California
rose by a record (4,515) and Florida infections up 3.7% from a day earlier,
compared with an average increase of 3.5% in the previous seven days.
SEE MAP:
As a reminder, on Friday stocks slumped after Apple said that it will
again close almost a dozen stores in the US because of a recent rise in
coronavirus infections in the South and West, and although the tech giant can
still operate effectively online the move was an ominous sign for brick and
mortar retailers across America and a dent to the optimism that the US recovery
is in full swing.
What to expect this week
According to Amplify, one of the most important data sets this week is
the latest flash PMI data due on Tuesday. While a rising headline number may
give some cheer that confidence is returning the data in itself is forward
looking which brings about two interesting points.
·
It could be highly subject to change depending
on the developments of a second wave virus (a la Apple on Friday).
·
As analysts at ING note, looking at other
data, including Google's mobility index, the economy still appears to be
operating well below its pre-virus level.
SEE CHART:
Finally, here is a calendar of the week's events courtesy of NEWSSQUAWK FROM
MONDAY TO FRIDAY
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
No
matter who ends up victorious on Nov 3, there is no stopping the Brrrrrr.
….
Two weeks ago we
reported that with PredictIt showing growing odds of a Democratic Sweep after the November election...
SEE CHART:
2020 us Election Odds
Goldman strategist warned that if Biden's tax proposals are enacted,
this wouldreduce Goldman's S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 by roughly
$20 per share, from $170 to $150, resulting in a substantial hit to the bank's
S&P forecast.
SEE CHART:
Tax Reform could reduce S&P 500 EPS By 12% ($20) in 2021
Furthermore, Kostin explained that according to a general rule of
thumb, every percentage point change in the effective
corporate tax rate should change S&P 500 earnings by 1.2% or $2 per share.
SEE CHART:
This ominous Goldman assessment was among the various reasons cited why
in the subsequent two weeks the markets have become increasingly shaky as
Biden's PredictIt lead over Trump has continued to grow.
SEE CHART:
Trump vs. Biden
But now, according to a follow up response from Morgan Stanley, the
bulls have nothing to fear even if Biden wins for one simple reason: no matter who ends up victorious on Nov 3, there is no
stopping the Brrrrrrrrrr.
In other words, fiscal policy in the US is now completely independent
of who is in charge and the US president is now nothing more than a figurehead; the only thing that matters is the Fed and whether it will
continue monetizing all US debt issuance as
it is doing in 2020...
SEE CHART:
Fed Balance Sheet vs Treasury Debt
US Election: The Art of the Plausible
The election could resulted in a Republican sweep, but their plausible
policy path for governing was limited by what they could deliver. That included tax cuts and deregulation, but not the spending
cuts and healthcare repeal they also promised. This added up to an economically
supportive fiscal expansion, and it only took hours for the markets to put two
and two together.
SEE TABLE
Election outcomes remain uncertain, but we think their influence on
current policy choices and future policy paths is supportive of risk assets
today [ZH translation: no matter who the president is, they won't allow
stocks to drop].
SEE TABLE:
More fiscal expansion this year bolsters our economists’ call for a
V-shaped recovery, and further fiscal support in a range of election scenarios
could pave the way for sustained economic recovery. While this poses
a challenge to US Treasury duration, we think it helps to extend recent gains
in US equities and US credit. At the equity sector level, we highlight the
potential for financials – an out-of-consensus favorite of our equity
strategists – to outperform. They expect value stock
outperformance and see positive exposure to a steeper yield curve from fiscal
expansion, factors that we think would endure in a variety of November
outcomes.
….
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Bolton writes in his book he urged
Trump to pursue military force on Iran as the "only lasting solution"...
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Meanwhile the NYT's Nikole Hannah-Jones promotes a
conspiracy theory about "government
forces" and BLM...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"The sharp divergence between
credit and activity observed in the US, the eurozone and China is particularly
unusual and highlights how different this crisis is relative to the GFC."
Yared is referring to the following charts: first, the US
credit impulse.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/surge%20in%20credit%20growth%20US.jpg?itok=IZredfy2
For those who missed
it, here is our recent analysis on why "QE
No Longer Stimulates The Economy And Only Leads To Higher Stock Prices".
Even some of the most ardent
supporters of the fraud that is Keynesian economics now admit the entire modern
economic system is on the verge of collapse for one main reason: the marginal
utility of debt is collapsing, with ever more debt required to generate an
increase in underlying GDP.
SEE TABLE
Latest Evidence of Diminishing returns:
GDP generates capacity of global DEBT
And tied to that, is another reason why any day now the
current system may be the last: the marginal utility of every new QE is now
declining to the point where soon virtually none of the
money created by the Fed out of thin air will enter the economy and instead
will be stuck in capital markets, resulting in hyperinflation for asset
prices even as the broader economy collapses.
In an expansionary phase, prices and
consumption are increasing. Because
prices and investment opportunities are high, demand for money among
consumers/businesses is high, and interest rates (r) increase alongside
borrowing. When r rises to the rate of r*, consumption slows,
earnings fall, and a recession ensues. R* falls as uncertainty and risk
aversion grow. This is a
“business cycle” recession (and as
long as the Fed is around, we will never have one of those again as the Fed has
now also killed the business cycle... just as the USSR tried to do).
…
CONTINUE READING THIS INTERESTING
ANALYSIS AT
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RISK OF WAR between
Egypt-Turkey
Sisi issued a 'red line' for military intervention which
Tripoli and its backer Turkey took as a declaration of war...
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The timing
of a Russia-India-China summit
this week could not be more apt following a deadly skirmish in the
disputed Himalayan region which resulted in dozens of military casualties...
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Beijing is stuck between a rock and a
hard place, on one hand urgently needing more rate cuts, and on the other unable
to implement them without causing another round of bank-sector impairments and
potential failures.
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THIS NATION WILL NOT SUBMIT
IT IS GOING TO REVOLUTION
Hugo
Adan
6/21/20
George Floyd riots are moving beyond anti-racism.
It is now a Mov that goes against neoliberalism & militarism:
the real cause of the initial anti-racism.
Here my opinion on the Art. below:
The
coronavirus response, monetary debasement, and George Floyd riots have clearly demonstrated to the honest and the
productive that governments offer them less than nothing...
….
….
WHERE
WE ARE GOING TO? ADONDE
VAMOS?
Neoliberalism
(monetary debasement, you called) is the system that creates explosive
inequality in favor of the !%. The 1% exclude other social classes & etnias
including the blacks. Only the alliance of this
oppressed people in an ARMED FRONT for
radical change or REV will defeat the power of the 1% .
Their power is based
on nasty militarism (production of weapons to create war terrorism abroad). But
foreign wars are arriving to its end. They can’t move further toward WW3, because it will create our
destruction too (MAD Thesis )
Our
threats and blackmails to other nations & to our Nation are now debased:
A-it became very expensive to start a war
& kept it to its end. Foreign nations are buying sophisticated weapons, missiles
included, even semi-nukes pointing to our nation.
B- Our nation is buying arms too, they need to
equip People’ brigades against state terrorism.
Our soldiers outside will soon come back to
our Nation (it is expensive to keep it
abroad) & they will join the resistance against our system of power. They are not going to accept
any longer the story-tell that their sacrifice served to our country and not to
our billionaires. They will join the Rev against them.
WORLD
HISTORY SAID SO, AND IT WILL HAPPEN IN THE US TOO!!
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
- India
'Seeks Early Delivery of Ru's S-400s', Fighter Jet Spare Parts Amid Border
Stand-Off With China I don’t
think RU will betray China for a fist of
arms-money. But
it c/b
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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LO DEMAS PARA MAÑANA
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