JUN 11 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Is Houston the new NY
====
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
We are entering The Greatest
Depression because there is no
exit...
I've endeavored to explain why The Greatest Depression is unstoppable in
recent posts:
The
Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent March 16, 2020
What's
Collapsing Can't Be Saved: Our Fraudulent Economy April 22, 2020
Why
Assets Will Crash May 4, 2020
Our
Inevitable Collapse: We Can't Save a Fragile Economy With Bailouts That
Increase Fragility May 1, 2020
Globalization
and Financialization Are Dead, and so Is Everything That Depended on Them May
15, 2020
Consumer
Spending Will Not Rebound--Here's Why May 18, 2020
This
Is How Systems Collapse May 30, 2020
I'll try to summarize all this as simply as possible:
1. The global economy's cost
structure has been fatally distorted by central bank policies of inflating
asset bubbles and reducing interest rates to near-zero.
2. Earnings from labor have stagnated or eroded since the era of
globalization / financialization took off around 2000.
3. Everything costs too much, i.e. is no longer
affordable from earnings alone, so the only way to maintain the current costly
lifestyle is to borrow money and use it to pay current expenses. This is true
for every sector: household, corporate and government.
4. As a result, everyone now needs every dollar of income just to pay
their expenses, including interest and principal on their rising debts. There
is no slack (buffers) in the system at all.
5. This can be visualized as a row of dominoes.
Once the first domino falls, every domino will be toppled.
For
example: a worker is laid off and can no longer afford to go to a
favorite restaurant. The restaurant's expenses are so high it can't survive on
reduced customer traffic, so it closes. The commercial landlord's expenses are
so high that he can't afford to lower rents, but since no business can afford
high rents, the space is empty and the landlord goes bust. The bank holding the
mortgage then has to absorb a staggering loss because the property is no longer
worth much because a building without tenants is just a money-pit of expenses
and no income.
The once-valuable restaurant business is now worth
zero. The once-valuable commercial property is also worth zero because the owner must continue to pay property
taxes, local fees and maintenance even if there are no tenants.
The dominoes falling trigger a reverse
wealth effect, a topic Gordon Long and I discuss in a new podcast A Reverse
Wealth Effect? (41:52). This is important because the wealth
effect--the psychological state of euphoria created when one's assets
steadily rise in value-- has been a core driver of consumption since the
Federal Reserve transformed the economy into a Bubble-Based Economy in the late
1990s.
When we feel wealthier because
our assets are rising, we're increasingly likely to tap that newfound wealth by
borrowing money to fulfill our desires for inessential goods and services.
Since the Fed has suppressed interest rates, the cost of borrowing against
one's house or buying a new car seemed remarkably affordable, especially
compared to the big increases in wealth generated by rising assets.
Unfortunately, while the wealth effect can
reverse, debts have to be paid regardless. Debt
payments are forever while the wealth effect is fleeting.
The current mass delusion is that the Fed can bail everyone out with
cost-free cash. But we have to keep in mind what the Fed can't do:
1. It can't reverse the unprecedented wealth
inequality its policies have pushed to the point of civil breakdown.
2. It can't make people take on the risks and heartaches of starting
new businesses.
3. It can't force employers to hire more
employees.
4. It can't make unprofitable businesses profitable.
5. It can't force people to buy assets at
prices that no longer make financial sense.
6. It can't make insolvent businesses and local governments solvent.
7. It can't force people who now realize their
priority is to save money to spend their cash, even if the Fed forces negative
interest rates so it costs money to have savings.
8. It can't lower the unaffordable cost structure of the entire
economy.
9. It can't de-link all the financial
dependencies in the financial system that make it so vulnerable to the first
domino falling.
10. It can't stop people from selling their assets.
In summary, it can't stop the reverse wealth effect.
SEE CHART:
We are
entering The Greatest Depression because there is no exit. Either the phantom
wealth of asset bubbles completely vanishes, or the phantom
purchasing power of fiat currency vanishes. Both paths lead to the
same destination: systemic collapse.
* * *
SOURCE:
----
----
Re-Open Rally Routed
As one
newly-minted "expert" in trading expressed to us: "it's a
f**king rout! ... and this after the most dovish Fed statement ever!"
See Chart:
Today saw the heaviest selling-pressure in stocks since record began as
TICK collapsed to -2058 intraday
The Dow crashed to its
Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and closed below the uptrend line
Too much transparency from Powell
(on the economic shitshow) perhaps, COVID-19 second-wave concerns maybe, or
just too far, too fast, and quant models reversing (more likely), but one thing is sure... Robinhood'rs were routed amid a
big-tech bloodbath but Small Caps were the worst - down 10% this week!...
See Chart:
This is the biggest daily drop in stocks since
mid-March at the height of the collapse.
And this collapse comes as the
market has abandoned hedges...
The median price of US stocks
is down 12.5% in the last few days
Since
The Fed statement and Powell presser, bonds & bullion are bid as stocks
sink...
See Chart:
From
the moment Jay Powell began his press conference, things "escalated very
quickly"...
Looks
like those rampant "Re-Open Rally" runs into value were entirely
wrong...
See Chart:
Virus-impacted sectors are
reversing all their insane gains...
Boeing, Boeing, Gone!
The overnight session remains a
big winner but June has seen day session and overnight session syncing up...
Small Caps tumbled back to
their 100DMA...
Banks bloodbath'd further today...
VIX
soared back above 35 today (not call-buying this time) as its curve inverted
once again for the first time since April....
See Chart:
On the
positive side, bonds were bid...
SEE Chart:
Treasuries
have erased all their losses for June with the long-end yields actually now
lower this month...
See Chart:
As
black gold was battered (WTI was down over 10% at its worst, back to a $35
handle, but bounced)...
See Chart:
The B-dollar Index screamed higher today (biggest
jump in 3 months), bucking its recent trend dramatically...
See Chart:
Notice
where the dollar bounced...
See Chart:
Robinhood'rs
favorite stock routed...
See Table:
And one wonders if this
is the real reason why stocks suddenly puked the last two days...
See Chart:
Reps vs
Dems Senate 2020 Race
….
----
----
Rent-seeking
is ubiquitous and now trumps market forces, which is a major factor why
even the United States is morphing into a zombie economy.
Summary
- Bears can’t win the long-game, the probabilities are stacked against them as stocks (DJIA) have generated positive returns for almost 70 percent of the last 100 years
- Bears also face a relatively new (since the 1990s) headwind, that is rent-seeking behavior of the investment markets, where the rules of the game are changed when the market moves in the bears’ favor
- Stocks remain divorced from economic reality and are not optimal initial conditions for a sustained and stable new bull market
SEE CHART:
Probabilities Are
Against Bears
First, the bears begin in a big hole with the probabilities stacked
against them. We wrote an extensive analysis on this subject in our March
2019, Permabulls
For Long Run.
See chart:
Dow Jones
Industrial significant digits
The Stock Market and
Economy
The chart
below illustrates how divorced the current stock market is from economic
reality. It is just another form of our favorite valuation metric, stock
market capitalization-to-GDP.
See Chart:
S&P
500 & Nominal GDP
Upshot
The market — well,
not really a market anymore after the Fed has effectively nationalized the bond
markets — looks like a screaming short given the above chart. Just
remember bears, you’re betting against the long-run probabilities skewed
against you, and also understand that the referees will change the rules of the
game if you start winning big. Rent-seeking
is ubiqutious and now trumps market forces, which is a major factor why even
the United States is morphing into a zombie economy.
….
----
----
In addition
to the case count, the prospects for re-lockdowns will be closely scrutinized;
the economic ramifications of which would likely echo the initial round, but on
a smaller scale.
SEE IMAGE ADDRESS
====
This could end badly for Goldman...
Late last year,
reports about Goldman Sachs reaching a settlement with the DoJ that -
importantly - would allow the bank to avoid a criminal guilty plea left
investors with the impression that, like the bank's previous transgressions,
Goldman's slate would be wiped clean after a modest payout.
====
We are all
well aware (and history has proven) that the Fed’s policies to help the
vulnerable help the wealthy far more and continue to fuel wealth disparity.
====
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Police abandon the area, but no
their nasty habits: to destabilize society
"The
power vacuum has apparently been filled."
….
What to do if they are helping to increment crimes at 300%?.
Do what the police must do: RESTORE ORDER. If
someone vandalize with arms, use a megaphone to tell that “this is PEOPLE’ POLICE. Drop your arms and rise you hand while
walk outside. IF do it, you are free to go. If you don’t give up your arms, we
will shot you”. Do it if don’t
obey, shot them. Check their ID and if
members to the Police station .. bring him/them to the press or mass media.
PEOPLE’ POLICE should use uniform
similar to the old police, they must be armed
& use a bullet-proof jacked plus helmet like US soldiers. They may be
trained to act properly and this PP must get the
list of policemen of the old Station to uncovered in the press if they are
committing delinquency crimes. How to finance this new Police Dept? There are billonaires ready to cooperate to RESTORE ORDER and they must be visited (never use
phone) . IF the new police commit same crimes like the old one, they must be
executing right away.
----
----
The ongoing chaos in Seattle is
fueling new questions about whether decisions to disarm the state’s National
Guard and have the Seattle police stand down are fanning the flames of protest
and emboldening activists hell-bent on anarchy.
====
"They are out there doing a job undervery difficult circumstances..."
====
"one
point of #Shut Down STEM is to find
out who doesn't do it (maybe they're working on a Covid-19
vaccine?) and house that against them
later..."
====
HERE
THE NEW VERSION OF KKK
AGAINST BLACKS
Hugo
Adan
6/11/20
Derived from
….
OPEN:
….
….
The Deep
State, the powers-that-be, want us
to turn this into a race war, but this is about so much more than
systemic racism. This is the
oldest con game in the books...
====
"This is fuxxing lunacy - conspiratorial
madness of the worst kind - but it’s delivered by a Serious Obama
Official and a Respected Mainstream Newscaster so it’s all fine..."
….
Recientemente
Trump mostro evidencias
de que Hillary Clinton tuvo
contactos oscuros con RU durante las elecciones anteriores. Por supuesto esto
involucraba también a Obama, aunque aparentemente ambos 2 aparecían en la
prensa USA como anti-Rusos. Lo peor ocurrió
durante el asesinato de Gadafy en Libia. Eso conto con la colaboración de los
saudis. Uno de los grupos jijadistas Saudis tomo la embajada USA en Bengazi , y fue Hillary quien dejo que los terroristas maten a 4
funcionarios de la Embajada en Bengazi,
a pesar de los pedidos de auxilia que ella jamás tramito. Le intereso solo
robar el oro de Libia , en lo que por supuesto también estaba implícito Obama.
Lo peor de Obama fue que el sí tramito la creación del ISIS el grupo terrorista
Saudi que asolo Siria y a quienes no solo armo, sino además entreno para los
objetivos terroristas de los Saudis en el oriente medio. Este es el real Obama que ahora aparece de
nuevo como ANTI-RU. Apunta al WW3 por supuesto y en esto está envuelto BIDEN que fue su VP. Documentos abundan al
respecto , publique algunos y los podemos re-publicar de nuevo.
----
----
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Japan's Okinawa lashes out against
Pentagon plan to essentially encircle China...
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
-
Trump Urges More ‘Toughness’, Pledges US
Won’t Let Seattle Be ‘Occupied by Anarchists’ - https://sputniknews.com/us/202006121079590939-trump-urges-more-toughness-pledges-us-wont-let-seattle-be-occupied-by-anarchists/
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Cornel West “El
imperio US implosionando” Amy G-
Nermeen
S
===
ALAI NET ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
N Y T:
Bolsonaro podría dar un autogolpe e imponer una dictadura militar en Brasil https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356334-bolsonaro-podria-autogolpe-militar-poder
Wall Street
vive su peor jornada desde marzo con una caída del Dow Jones del 6,9 % https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356344-dow-jones-caer-1600-puntos-preocupacion-coronavirus
Aparece
nuevo caso de covid-19 en Pekín tras casi dos meses de 'tregua' https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356326-nuevo-caso-covid-19-pekin
Fabrican en China baterías
para autos eléct que duran 16 años y 2 mill de kilómetros https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/355997-fabrican-china-bateria-automoviles-electricos-2000-kilometros
Trump
elogia a la Guardia Nacional por dispersar protestas en Mineápolis https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/356356-cuchillo-cortando-mantequilla-trump-mineapolis
Trump
autoriza sanción a miembros de C P I si procesa a militares de US https://actualidad.rt.com/video/356357-trump-avala-sancionar-miembros-cpi
----
----
INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Conspiracy Theorist-in-Chief By Finian Cunningham
----
----
CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
The economic situation that besets us
all now is much more than art and politics – it’s about how we live for the
foreseeable future. Are we witnessing a recovery? If so, what kind of recovery? CrossTalking with Danielle DiMartino Booth
& Marshall Auerback.
----
----
We talked about this with the
environmental advocate, explorer, filmmaker and Emmy-nominated host and
producer, Philippe Cousteau.
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco-visionaries/491550-pandemic-economic-activity-nature-encroachment/
----
----
GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- U.S. Passes 2
Million Coronavirus Cases as States Lift Restrictions, Raising Fears of a
Second Wave
- “He
Didn’t Deserve to Die Over $20”: George Floyd’s Brother Urges Congress to Stop
Police Killings
- Historian
Robin D.G. Kelley: Years of Racial Justice Organizing Laid Groundwork for
Today’s Uprising
- Seattle
Activists Create Autonomous Zone Near Abandoned Police Precinct After Days of
State Violence
====
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario