JUN 27 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Nice of
the mainstream media to play catch up to the facts we were exploring months ago...
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"You could still very easily have
a drop of 20% from the peak we made on June 8th. Very easily."
….
After two consecutive weeks of declines
in the Fed's balance sheet, the stock market has
started to look especially wobbly, and after several days of steep declines,
all June gains have vaporized.
SEE CHART
S&P vs.
FED Balance Sheet
Of course correlation isn't causation, and the prevailing
narrative is that the market weakness has been due to a spike in coronavirus
cases across sunbelt states and fears that the V-shaped recovery is not coming,
although as we have repeatedly said, the Fed will urgently need to expand its
QE which is now running at "only" $80BN per month for TSYs, an amount
that will be insufficient to monetize the flood of new debt in the coming
years. To do that, however, the Fed needs a "shock" pretext to resume aggressive
balance sheet expansion and a "second wave" is just that.
The past month, discussions of a bear market rally are once
again front and center with BofA's Michael Hartnett taking the lead. According to the BofA CIO, while Q2 is on pace to be the best
quarter for the S&P500 and oil in 50 years...
SEE TABLE
To put it in context, Hartnett shows that the current rebound has
largely been following the trajectory of the three "greatest bear market
rallies of all-time" (1929, 1938, 1974), which would put the S&P at
3300-3600 sometime between Aug & Jan'21, but what follows would be a far more painful move lower, as
was the case after all these bear market rallies fizzled resulting in lower
lows.
SEE CHART:
Hartnett is not the only one trying to predict how the bear
market rally dies. Leuthold Group's CIO, Doug Ramsey, who in March told his
clients to sit out what's coming and thus missed the $10 trillion surge in
market cap, has a message: it ain’t over yet.
"The bulls could be proved right in that the March 23rd low
holds, but you could lose a lot of money in a drawdown here," said the Leuthold chief investment officer. "You could still very easily have a drop
of 20% from the peak we made on June 8th. Very easily."
As Bloomberg
notes, "the warning reflects a wider schism on Wall Street these days.
Many of the bears whose jaws dropped over the resiliency of stocks remain
steadfastly skeptical, awaiting the moment of vindication. Meanwhile, early
believers are running victory laps, doubling down on the rally on the theory
skeptics will have to capitulate and stimulus will continue to flow."
BUT what may be the single
most beneficial aspect of the recent Fed-fueled ramp which saw the central bank
inject or backstop nearly $8 trillion (and counting), is that technical
analysis has finally been thrown out of the window, and "by now, everyone’s
aware there’s no moment of the past that can be used as a template to tell
which way stocks will lurch next."
….
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Speculators in limbo:
...the Fed looks increasingly busted in trying to defend this market
without being able to prevent what
the banks and bond market are already signaling: We’re staring at the
prospect of a protracted downturn.
….
The reopening of the
US economy is hampered by violent spikes in coronavirus infections in some part
of the US leading to delayed reopening in some cases raising questions about
the veracity of any V shape recovery in the economy as lay off
announcements keep mounting globally.
The realization
that jobs will not come back to anywhere near February levels may take time to
sink in as does perhaps the inconvenient
truth that the Fed’s intervention efforts may be hitting a point of diminishing
returns.
LISTEN VIDEO: https://youtu.be/po1rfK9XT6w
For reference a couple of charts relating to what we
discussed in the video above:
$SPX, following peaking June 8th when
it tagged a key trend line has now reversed lower and has closed the week below
its weekly 5 EMA for the first time since the March lows following the break of
the rally trend earlier in the month:
SEE CHART:
This could be signaling a trend
shift. But also note $SPX closed right at its weekly 50MA and just below its
daily 200MA:
SEE CHART:
Note also the consecutive breakouts in volatility since the
June 8th peak.
Put in context the horrid action in
the banking sector, even this week’s loosening of the Volcker rule lead the resulting bounce to be sold. Worse for banks
potentially here is that the chart suggests a potential
head and shoulders pattern that could signal much lower prices ahead in context
of the 10 year again dropping lower as well:
SEE CHART:
Since the June peak, $SPX is down 7%,
small caps are down over 10% and the banking index is down over 20%. These
are sizable moves to the downside and tech is
increasingly under threat as well and its strength came on ever
weakening internals.
I’ve outlined the reasons why the historic rally may have
been still nothing but a bear market rally fueled to extremes by unprecedented liquidity injections and
why the Fed looks
increasingly busted in trying to defend this market without being able to prevent
what the banks and bond market are already signaling: We’re staring at the
prospect of a protracted downturn.
….
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Step aside CMBX 6 and make way for
the soon to be brutalized CMBX 9, full of soon to be insolvent hotels.
….
As we reported
previously, with commercial real estate failing to benefit from the rebound
in overall risk over the past 3 months as a result of a tidal wave of retail
bankruptcies, CMBX Series 6 - which back in March
2017 was dubbed the "Big Short 2.0" trade due to its substantial exposure to malls which were hurting
long before the arrival of the pandemic...
SEE CHARTS:
.. and especially the BBB- tranche
has been stuck in purgatory, and after surging to 75, is back to where it was
in mid-April as investors signal that the worst is yet to come for commercial
real estate.
SEE CHART:
Economy is going down
Of course, all of this is well-known by now, and it is safe to say that the riskier tranches of CMBX S6 are now
fairly priced for even a downside scenario among retail outlets. But
what about other CMBX issues, and is there another "Big Short"
lurking among the various tranches, especially in the aftermath of the
coronavirus shutdowns which will cripple not just
retail outlets but everything from restaurants, to multi-family housing (as
city renters flee for the suburbs), to offices and hotels.
In our view, the answer to all those seeking the next Big
Short is CMBX 9
Below are some of
the reasons why CMBX 9 - which so far is off-limits to the Fed's blatant
bailouts of most, but not all, asset classes - may be the cleanest and safest
way to bet on the devastation resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Courtesy
of Trepp:
What Makes
CMBX 9 Unique?
The
2015 CMBX 9 reference obligations consist of deals issued before any of
that drama emerged. (The 2016 oil
downturn in CMBS also led to several defaults of hotel and multifamily loans
backed by "man-camps" in the shale regions of North Dakota and
elsewhere.)
Other
Attributes of CMBX 9?
It has the highest concentration of
multifamily loans of any CMBX series with 14.7%. (The only other series that is
close is CMBX 13 with 14.1%.)
SEE TABLE:
CMBX 9 Collateral Break dowm by
property type
CMBX 9 also
has the highest concentration of hotel loans with 16.7%. (CMBX 11 is next with 13.8%.) In terms of
protection premiums, CMBX 9 BBB- costs about 725 basis points to insure. That's
well inside of the 925 basis points for CMBX 8 BBB- but wider than the 675 for
CMBX 10 BBB-. (Those spread levels are from IHS Markit).
As of June 2020, 9.8%
of the collateral behind CMBX 9 is 30 or
more days delinquent. That puts the
index slightly ahead of the average CMBS delinquency rate as of June.
Another 6.6% of the loans behind CMBX 9 missed their June
payment, but were not yet 30 days late – so there is room for the delinquency
rate to move higher over the summer. (Those percentages include defeased loans
in the denominator of the calculation.)
The pool of defeased loans totals
4.5% by loan balance. In addition, 23% of the collateral pool is on servicer
watchlist and another 5.1% of the collateral pool is with the special servicer.
SEE CHART:
Largest loans behind CMBX9
CMBX
Background
For background, CMBX is a set of indexes administered by
Markit Partners. There are 13 separate indexes - the first five were launched
prior to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
Finally, for those asking, yes there is a lot of potential
downside for CMBX Series 9 BBB-. In fact, if the hotel
world suffers a perfect storm of pent up defaults coupled with a second wave of
covid which send the hotel industry into another tailspin, the potential downside
here could be even greater than for Series 6.
SEE CHART:
CMBX S9 BBB Tranche Price
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
BLM is going beyond World-wide Agst colonialism,
its symbols are removed and it will
"The Black Lives Matter mob shut
down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city
center."
…..
I will turn anti-imperialist.. ‘eat the rich’ is
antimperialist slogan. The billonaires are the worse plague of the US system.
The day Wall Street is closed, that will be the heart of antimperialism. One
day it will happen. That cancer has to be removed and BLM will be the surgeon. It has to be well calculated.. everything
in its time. FDR did it the past
recession (expropriate the billionaires) IT will
happen again.. Which one will be first :the expropiation or the destruction of
Wall Street .. Nobody knows . All we know is “they’re main enemies of US”. Which one will be first:
the political assault to power or the removal of cancer?
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“American Patriotism” is the
slogan of war mongers. War-mongerism means calculated
"No race, no religion, no politics, just
Americans. There is clarity and a physical purity in that. Today at
home, in the United States, I miss
the battlefield..."
….
….
The lament of
wounded warriors is our lament, our National lament. We made a mistake and we
are ready to correct it. PEACE is what we need
now and we must move forward on this demand by canceling ‘war mongerism’
: the false ideology that is causing our pains today.
War mongerism means calculated assault of foreign riches .. War mongerism created the rich of US Comp
who manufacture lethal weapons & war abroad.. that is the heart of our
cannibal imperialism outside and there is not space for that anymore.
War mongerism leads to WW3 & we don’t want to be destroyed in WW3. War mongerism means genocides & destruction outside..
WHO BENEFIT FROM THAT?. NOT OUR
NATION.. only BIG CORP who
manufacture weapons and wars abroad. Who
benefit from wars abroad: the billionaires.
SUCH
PAST HAS TO BE CANCELLED . What we need now is PEACE worldwide, not the assault on Venezuelan oil
+ plus destruction of other countries. THAT CREATES
CHANCES FOR WW3: the whole destruction of humanity. We urgently
need the dismantle of NUKES worldwide. Our
nation must lead this demand.
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The police said “You look like a
f**king idiot, you stupid bitch”
….
That is the
wrong ideology of some policeman , the
ideology that lead to brutal and inhumane assault on people that exercised
their civil right to protest in streets. That ideology create crimes &
criminal with uniform. That is why we have
BLM now & the huge political crisis in process. We demand the close of such
police station and the creation of ‘communal police’. The police in Chile
marched at front of people demonstration
& in their sides & behind to protect them from opposite
demonstrators, that was the right way of being police as protectors of Nation
security. To the felon-bad police in US they are “idiots & stupid”. Once
more police-stations are re-organized or
canceling & replaced with communal
police we will see the real meaning of
‘idiots & stupid’. If they continue doing so, they will force violent
response from the bottom. We have to avoid that response via re-org of police
stations & replacing bad policemen.
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Arizona, Florida and Nevada have all
reported record totals as the US is on track to report 40k+ cases for the 4th
straight day
....
The chart below shows that Florida, Texas, California and
Arizona have been the biggest contributors to the surge
in US cases.
SEE CHART:
The data, packaged here by JPM
analysts, clearly shows, no state is seeing capacity stretched to extremes - at
least not yet.
SEE CHART:
South Florida, particularly
Miami-Dade County, remains the worst-hit part of the state, reporting roughly a
quarter of the statewide total.
SEE CHART:
….
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"Universities that, after siphoning $1.5 trillion in
credit from young people, cannot endure a semester on reduced budgets do not deserve to survive..."
….
What they gona do:
return the $1.5 trillion to their parents or charge to FED?
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Source
unknown...
Though more Russian hypersonic
accidents going down somewhere?
….
Preliminary INFO on RU: Nuclear Plant
in Saint Petesburg .AFP
“These are certainly nuclear
fission products, most likely from a civil source,” the
CTBTO said in a statement.
The organization further speculated that the source could
have come from anywhere spanning from western Russia to Baltic countries to
parts of Scandinavia.
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Ven
denuncia: operac Gadeon se planeó desde la resid de embajador español en Caraca https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/358070-ven-denuncia-incursion-gobierno-espana
Temor a "nuevo
genocidio": El CV afecta más de cien etnias
indígenas en Brasil https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/358080-coronavirus-afecta-centenar-etnias-indigenas-brasil
"El
bitcóin, una moneda inconfiscable y atrayente para la comunidad negra" https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/keiser_report/358051-bitcoin-inconfiscable-caracteristica-atrayente-comunidad-negra
Estudio
revela que CV genera tentáculos "siniestros" en células (pero hay buena
notic) https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/358062-coronavirus-tentaculos-celulas-infectadas-cancer
Al menos 2
muertos y 4 heridos en tiroteo en un depósito de Walmart en California https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/358096-eeuu-walmart-tiroteo-victimas
"Ataque
de langostas": en una ciudad de la India”
VIDEO https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/358098-ataque-langostas--enjambre-ciudad-india
"De
Hawái a China": Detectan una rara perturbación magnética global https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/357980-detectan-anomalia-magnetica-global
Protesta exige
derribo de un monumento a Lincoln en Washington por ser "racista" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/358077-manifestantes-exigir-derribo-monumento-lincoln-racista
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CROSS
TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
Max and Stacy speak about the
impending repeat of the 2008 crisis, according to an article in The Atlantic,
as 15 percent of companies with poor leveraged loans are on the cusp of
default. In the second half, Max interviews Michelle Renee on the bitcoin
community. They discuss why bitcoin is the solution for African Americans, as
there remain lots of areas in the USA where justice for them is not served.
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